MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Yeah, I think you rank Amherst and Trinity a bit too low, P'Bear fan.  Other than one year where their top player missed the entire year, Amherst hasn't finished out of the top three in recent memory and I see no reason why that should change.  They've replaced senior classes roughly as good as this one before (2003, 2008, 2013) and then bounce right back without any sort of drop-off.  Dawson's stats don't look all that impressive, I agree, but folks around the Amherst program seem extremely high on him here and usually when they are that high on someone, they deliver.  And I thought Reid Berman looked good at PG and should have received more PT last year -- he is not a shooter but is an excellent ball-handler, physical, and very, very hard to keep out of the lane, if he ends up starting at the point he will average a TON of assists.  Reminds me a bit of Conor Meehan who had a great career and developed his perimeter game over the course of four years.  Between the two of them Amherst is in good shape.  The bigger question mark is who will hit shots on the wing other than Green but Racy and the frosh McCarthy should be able to do a credible enough job to keep defenses honest, and with George, Pollack, Nabatoff, Mussachia, and the transfer forming a ridiculously big, physical, and deep group at the 4/5, that is all Amherst really needs.

As for Trinity, as you note they bring everyone back.  Starks should be an offensive force as an upperclassman.  No one other than Amherst has as many good, long athletes up front -- Ajayi Ogundeko, Papadeas, and Conaway are another year bigger and stronger and they were really, really tough to deal with last year.  They will be beasts in terms of defense and offensive rebounding.  Shooting is a weak spot but it is also an area that teams can improve upon in the off-season.  I'd say that the top tier is going to be Trinity, Amherst, Midd and Tufts in some order.  Tufts needs to figure out PG which is a big deal, and I'm assuming Ferris and Palleschi are the players they once were in putting Tufts with that group, which is a big assumption.  I think Williams, Colby and Bowdoin are right there a half-notch down.  Colby I think is a year away -- after exceeding expectations they won't take anyone by surprise this year, and they are still at least one perimeter stud away in my view.  Williams is the biggest mystery but has enough perimeter talent left (even without Robinson, they have loads of ace shooters) to surprise some folks, still, they are going to get pretty beat up on the inside with so little size and they won't dominate offensively the way they did last year to compensate. 

Bowdoin has the big question mark on the wing (like Amherst, not a ton of proven shooters returning, unlike Amherst, not stocked with underclass talent primed to explode_, and as always is on the shallow side, particularly on the perimeter.  Swords and Hurley have to stay healthy all year, Pieri needs to take a big step forward, and Hausman (who I really like) has to show more consistency as a top-three offensive threat night in and night out.

Overall, I see the pre-season favorites as something like 1. Amherst, 2. Midd / Trinity, 4. Tufts, 5. Colby / Williams, 7. Bowdoin, 8. Wesleyan, 9. Bates, 10. Conn (anticipating strong results from great frosh class), 11. Hamilton.  Although again, it really is wide open.  I could see anyone in the top seven winning the league and most of the top seven (not Amherst, probably not Midd) finishing as low as seventh.  It looks like a REALLY weak year overall for D3, after a very strong group of contenders last year.  NESCAC as a whole seems like a year away -- Amherst (in particular), Midd, Tufts, Colby could all be absolutely STACKED next season depending on a few things, but in as wide-open a year in D3 as I can recall, a few NESCAC teams could make deep runs just because no one else is really any better. 

[middhoops]

Great analysis, nescac1.
Amherst ALWAYS has more on their bench than anyone other than the coaches who didn't get those players realizes.  Trinity will out rebound everyone and that makes them very scary.  Tufts has the most top level talent but still needs to show they can win with it.  Midd has some great "pieces" but a lot of factors have to gel perfectly.  Bowdoin, if healthy all season, can win it all.  No one wants to play Colby or Bates.
Great season coming up.

Thanks again to P'Bear for his team by team pre-season analyses.

[amh63]

Nescac1....nice post, as always.  Glad you picked up on Berman and Racy. Berman, though from a "Silver Spoon" area, led his team in to the state finals against some highly rated Chicago schools. Tough player with strong Leadership qualities who sees the whole floor..PG qualities.  Racy was known as a deadly outside shooter on a good HS team.  Yes, there are other sophs with size ready to step up.  I have my fingers crossed on another player...to provide some PG depth..but will see when Nov. rolls around.  If Pollack is fully recovered, I see a front court that will provide more offense than previous years and rebound/ defend with the best.  To get time on the floor, you have to play defense. 
Remember, Killian, and Kalema were both great defenders as well as drivers who developed their outside shots.  There are some quick long armed players who are ready to replace those departed seniors.   
MIDDHOOPS...agree with your points.  Yes Trinity's front court players can rebound.  It is their tough physical style that is dangerous/scary.  A problem at Trinity is keeping their players.  If the team remains intact, Trinity has a shot to return to their glory days.  Oh yes...did you go to the football game?

[toad22]

Given the parity in talent throughout the league, the teams that stay healthy, or have great depth, will probably end at the top. Amherst usually has a lot of depth, though Dave Hixon rarely plays more than 7-8 players in his rotation. When somebody gets hurt, however, there are usually capable replacements available. Most of the rest of the league struggles more with quality depth. Thus, much of this prognostication exercise is a crap-shoot. I know in Williams' case, our two non-NCAA years in the last six were primarily caused by multiple serious injuries before and during the season. I don't think there is much that can be done to prevent this except try for greater depth on your team. I believe that the top five at Williams will be able to play with anybody in the league. After that, we will need help from players who have yet to see many minutes on the court.

[amh63]

Toad22....a key point!  Thanks for pointing out the "depth" factor wrt to conference teams.  The injury posts at Bowdoin, Tufts, Amherst and even Williams impacted game results throughout last season.
One quality that is often overlooked in Aaron Toomey is his durability...considering the minutes he played and the way he plays...rebounding and going inside to score.
Two years ago, Aaron was injured in early Dec.  Kalema came in to play PG in the Brandeis game away. He was not ready for the role  resulting in a loss.  Kalema grew up fast and by the end of the year could relieve Aaron for awhile in the Championship run.  Last year, both Killian and Pollack had injuries early in the season.  In the Babson game at Babson, Killian was out and Pollack played only 11 tentative minutes.  Babson played great and won.  We all know that Amherst missed the prensence of Pollack in the last part of the season..in the post season.  Coach Hixon who tends to use a short bench, especially in the post season...remarked that he should have "developed" more of his young squad...gave them more PT...meaningful minutes during the season.  We will see if his bench is lengthen this season..regardless of any injuries...knock on wood .

[P'bearfan]

Bowdoin's Assistant Basketball Coach, Brandon Linton, will depart Brunswick to join the Army basketball staff.  Best of luck to Coach Linton!!

[NEhoops]

1. Amherst - They stay at the top until someone proves otherwise. Their last game at Midd could decide the league.
2. Middlebury - Good balance, but a top three finish isn't guaranteed. 
3. Williams - Easy to say they'll drop off for the obvious reasons, but this group still knows how to win.
4. Trinity - Another year older doesn't always mean they'll be better. They wont sneak up on anyone this year, need to shoot it better.
5/6. Colby/Bowdoin - They know each other and match up well. Their game could decide a lot.
7. Tufts - The talent is there, but they need to prove it. They'll be on the road against teams 4-6.
8. Bates - They'll be improved, but not sure how high they can go. Big advantage in having teams 9-11 at home.
9. Wesleyan - They'll keep every game competitive, but don't have the fire power at this point to get into contention.
10. Conn - Need to develop a consistent rotation and play better on both ends.
11. Hamilton - Big change in the offense, do they have the players that can step up.

[lefrakenstein]

I have my fingers crossed on another player...to provide some PG depth..but will see when Nov. rolls around. 

Oh man, I sincerely hope this is a Ray Barry reference. My favorite perennial dark horse contributor. It would be a cool story if he were an impact player this year.

I would say in general that I don't feel that Amherst should be the preseason favorite. George, Pollack and Green are really the only three proven players on the roster and two of them have injury concerns. Talent-wise, I think Tufts has the best roster in the league. If you gave that squad to Dave Hixon or Jeff Brown I think it would easily be the best team in the league.

Making predictions this year is tricky business, but I predict that Williams will win the league. I think that with Mayer and Robinson on board people didn't get a chance to appreciate how good Aronowitz, Wohl and Greenman are. I also think Kilcullen is going to have a big year now that he will be asked to step into a scoring role. New Williams coaches have traditionally done very well in their first year (before Hixon figures them out and runs off 8-10 wins in a row) and I think the Ephs will benefit from the league not knowing what to expect from App. It's an odd year when picking Williams to win the NESCAC is a bold prediction. You heard it here first.

[lefrakenstein]

10. Conn - Need to develop a consistent rotation and play better on both ends.

Reminds me of this ESPN graphic for the Houston Astros' draft needs:

[amh63]

Seems Pat C. has the inside scoop of Amherst's regular season schedule.  Link on the WBB CAC board...dated yesterday.  The Amherst website has not posted the info as of today...though the WBB schedule has been posted.  Seems there will be a game in Baltimore.  Will have to schedule to attend!

[middhoops]

One simple prediction.
Sometime in December a lot of us are going to say, "Who knew those guys on the Amherst bench would develop so fast?"

[madzillagd]

1. Amherst
General Comment: The champ needs to be knocked off the top and they are vulnerable this year.  If it's going to happen now is the time for somebody to step up before all the new pieces have time to gel.
They stay on top if: they do their usually momentum building at the beginning of the year.  I expect this group to drop a couple head scratchers early on but expect Hixon to have them playing as a unit come conference play.
They finish lower if: they don't mix and no one steps up as a leader.  Often new players don't want to assert themselves so it leaves the veterans to take charge. Will the vets understand that leadership is more important than say, getting 5+ threes up in a game?

2.  Tufts
General Comment: Most talented team in the league
They finish higher if: they play up to their talent level and don't blow any easy games. 
They finish lower if: they can't stay healthy and play down to the level of their opponents.  Tufts needs to know they are more talented than every team they face, that's on the coach to make sure they understand that. 

3. Midd
General Comment: I'm not convinced they should be this high but I've got no one better to put in front of them. The schizophrenic play of last year did not build confidence.   
They finish higher if: the bigs show up this year.  The post play was terrible last year, just way too soft.  The bigs need to step up their game several levels because the guard/wings will do just fine.
They finish lower if: the bigs repeat their performance from last year.  No rebounding, no real defensive presence despite the size.

4. Williams
General Comment: This should be fun to watch. 
They finish higher if: they find a lost 7 footer wandering campus that they weren't aware of.  But seriously, they need to make shots to win games because they will get abused down low all year.
They finish lower if: They don't make shots and/or making shots doesn't make up for the fact that they have no size whatsoever.  They are short big men in a year where big men will be dominant. 

5. Bowdoin
General Comment: I think Bowdoin comes back to earth a bit this year.  They will be competitive but now sure the offense is there this year.
They finish higher if: Swords gets aggressive.  For me, just way too many possessions last year where he got it in the post and didn't even look at the basket.  He needs to be more aggressive this year in his scoring to make up for the shooters they lost.
They finish lower if: Swords stays passive and the guys filling the holes aren't as efficient in scoring. 

6. Colby
General Comment: Colby was in almost every single conference game they lost last year.  They bring everybody back of consequence, I think they take small step forward.
They finish higher if: they have developed as a team.  They have some nice pieces such as Hudnut, now it's time to show improvement and that's question mark for the coaching staff.
They finish lower if: they fail to show any improvement or all the pieces don't come back.   

7. Trinity
General Comment: I don't have the same love for Trinity as others do.  They just are not a very good offensive team and I don't see them pulling off the Tufts upset this year.   
They finish higher if: they find some shooters.  Good defense paired with some much needed offense and they will be a tough out.
They finish lower if: the scoring stays the same but the defense isn't as good.   

8. Wesleyan
General Comment: Very young team that could surprise a few folks but just not sure there is enough talent there to really compete with the top teams night to night. 
They finish higher if: they establish an identify and execute better.  Seemed like every Wes game I saw they were very helter skelter but it wasn't necessarily effective.  Lots of bad shots taken, need to clean up their game this year.
They finish lower if: their lack development and don't play together as a team.  Are they a pressure team? A running team? Where do they get their offense in the half court? Lots of questions for these guys to answer.

9. Bates
General Comment: I thought Bates was a well-balanced team poised to make a move last year, boy was I wrong.  They don't lose much to graduation so maybe I was just off by a year.
They finish higher if: the Delpeche duo takes a leap in development and provide some much needed scoring in the post.
They finish lower if: well, they repeat last year and completely fall apart as a team.

10./11. Conn Coll/ Hamilton
General Comment: The offense has left the building.
They finish higher if: They find an unexpected All-NESCAC level scorer.
They finish lower if: Reality sets in.

[amh63]

P'Bear....leaves the head coach a little short.  Assume his volunteer assistant is returning.  Any speculative rumors...is that a double negative?...of a replacement?  It must be a fine " gig" and a possible raise.  The Bowdoin WBB team also had an assistant move on...announcement much earlier in the year.

[grabtherim]

So much interesting chatter.  One thing seems clear, for the first time in 5 or so seasons everyone seems to be saying the  dominance of the big 3 is gone.  Amherst looks to be the most likely to stay on top, while Williams and Midd simply have many questions to answer.   I would not be shorting Trinity and Tufts.  Trinity played really well in stretches last year with no one graduating, and Sabety could be a beast for Tufts this season especially if Palleschi plays along side him.  Unfortunately both teams are led by guys who may not be up to their own talent.  Sheldon has never gotten the most out his players especially when the heat is on, and Cosgrove's sideline behavior, especially the ongoing conversation he seems to be having with himself during games borders on being worthy of a straight jacket versus a big win.  If either do not have appreciably better seasons during this wide open year, changes should but probably will not be made.   

[nescacobserver]

P'BearFan, I think it's unfair to cite Jade Dawson's stats last year at Fairleigh Dickinson as a barometer for how he'll do in the Nescac.  Remember, he was only a freshman point guard in D1, and the fact he averaged almost 8 minutes per game is actually quite impressive.  Think about it this way - how many current Nescac point guards do you think would even make a D1 roster, let alone get 8 minutes per game as a freshman?  I guess we'll see for ourselves in about a month, but I have to believe this kid is going to be at a different level than most Nescac guards.  Even if his shooting stats from last year suggest he's not a pure shooter, his reported strength and athleticism should allow him to get to the rack pretty easily in D3, where he won't have a couple 6'10-6'11 kids waiting for him in the paint.

This season should be fun!