MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

Great pre-season discussion on the board.  A couple of thoughts:

-Completely agree that a lot will depend on how players develop.   For a good example look at Bowdoin last year – many of us questioned what type of season we were going to have once we learned that Bryan Hurley was injured.  However, Matt Mathias stepped up and did a great job.  You never know which player will step up and how coaches will adjust, which is what makes this so much fun.

-I agree that Amherst has more talent than most other teams and Coach Hixon has a tremendous track record of success.  However, when you look at all of the holes Amherst have to fill it means that several players all need to step at once next season – and that is hard to pull off.  Also it's not obvious who those players will be.  It's not as if that some of the bench players showed steady development over the course of last season.   Can't see how they're the favorite.

-Have to disagree with the more optimistic predictions for Trinity.  Last season this team was very weak offensively because they couldn't shoot.  I can envision one or two players making big improvements but Trinity needs the several players to shoot better and someone needs to become a real, consistent threat from behind the arc.  It's hard to see that happening.

-Bowdoin is definitely the wild card.  If things go well they're a legitimate threat to win the conference – if they don't, well I hate to imagine 7th, but it could happen.

[P'bearfan]

P'BearFan, I think it's unfair to cite Jade Dawson's stats last year at Fairleigh Dickinson as a barometer for how he'll do in the Nescac.  Remember, he was only a freshman point guard in D1, and the fact he averaged almost 8 minutes per game is actually quite impressive.  Think about it this way - how many current Nescac point guards do you think would even make a D1 roster, let alone get 8 minutes per game as a freshman?

Have to respectfully disagree with you.  While it's true that many NESCAC PG's wouldn't make a D1 roster that doesn't mean that Dawson will be a star in the NESCAC and more importantly it doesn't mean that he will be able to fill the very specific needs that Amherst has. 

[P'bearfan]

Below is a closer look at Amherst's transfer Jayde Dawson who played at Farleigh Dickinson last year.

Summary

Farleigh Dickinson transfer Jayde Dawson may be one of the better athletes in the conference and he may be very difficult to stop in transition.   However, based on his performance last year it's very difficult to see how he will replace Toomey – and that leaves Amherst with a very tough challenge.

Before diving into Dawson's stats, it's worthwhile reviewing just how much Amherst relied on Aaron Toomey last season:

Scoring  (Toomey):   
19.9 ppg (23.7% of Amerhst total ppg). 
This breaks down as: 19.2% of Amherst's 2 pt FG's; 31.7% of total 3pt FG's and 33% of total FTs

Ball handling and steals (Toomey):
42.0% of total assists; only 22.7% of total turnovers; 31.9% of total steals

Now let's look at what Dawson did last season:

Jayde Dawson 2013-14 Experience

As I mentioned in my Amherst team preview, Dawson appeared in 29 games for Farleigh Dickinson, averaging 7.5 min and 2.6 points per game.  However if you look more closely you notice that his playing time varied widely:

Avg min/game        # games

>10                          7  5-10                        9  <5                        13  Interestingly Dawson's playing time decreased as the season went along.  He averaged 12.3 minutes / game during the first 6 games but this dropped off dramatically as the season progressed.  6 of the 7 games in which he played more than 10 minutes / game occurred in the first half of the season.  While many factors could account for this, it's generally not a good sign. Based on these data, it's fair to wonder whether Dawson's performance varied with the amount playing time he received.  The answer is – maybe a little bit. 3 point shooting (2013-14 avg: 20.6%) 3pt FG%   #games   Avg min/game >35                4         6.5 30-35              1         16 25-30              1          9 <25                8          11.7 Based on the table above, playing more minutes didn't translate into better 3 pt shooting for Dawson.  His best 3 point shooting occurred when he averaged the fewest minutes on the floor.  In short Dawson is not a consistent deep scoring threat. Foul shooting (2013-14 avg: 57.7%) FT%      #games   Avg min/game >50                3      18 50                  4       10 <50                2      9 Dawson only took foul shots in 9 games so we're dealing with a somewhat small sample set (26 total attempts).  While he does seem to shoot a little better when he plays longer, Dawson never shot better than 75% (6-8) in any single game and that only occurred once.  He shot 66.7% in just two games.  Any way you look at it, 57.7% from the charity stripe is not very strong.  As I mentioned in my team outlook, Amherst is likely to be a weak foul shooting team this season.  The addition of Dawson isn't likely to help and NESCAC opponents may find it effective to simply start fouling Amherst, especially Dawson, late in close games.    2 point shooting (2013-14 avg: 42.2%) 2pt FG%      #games   Avg min/game >74%                   3      12 50-74                   0      -- 50                        4      16 <50                     11      7 Here's an example where more playing time seems to improve Dawson's performance.  When he shot 50% or better from the floor (2 pointers) he averaged at least 12 minutes of playing time.  However, what's concerning is that in the 11 games when he shot <50% he actually shot 0%.  This includes two games where he played 14 and 18 minutes respectively.  Ball control (2013-14 avg: 0.65) A/TO      #games   Avg min/game >1                 4      15 1.0                 2      14 <1.0                11      8 Dawson played 17 games where he recorded either an assist or turnover.  In the games where his A/TO was 1.0 or better he averaged 14 minutes or more.  When his A/TO was less than 1.0 he only averaged 8 min / game so there seems to be a positive correlation between playing time and his ball handling but it's not absolute.  He had 2 games where he played at least 18 minutes and had an A/TO of <1.0.   What should be concerning here is that in 9 of the 11 games where his A/TO <1.0 he had 0 assists and 1 or 2 turnovers.

[amh63]

P'Bear...Wow...interesting post.  I believe your point is made when you present the stats of Aaron's contribution to his team from last year.  I believe as another poster has pointed out that Aaron Toomey's leadership will also be missed...not found directly from stats.  I believe that Toomey's numbers went up in games last season because he felt he needed to when teammates were injured.
Anyway, there will be no individual player at Amherst that will replace Aaron's contributions from last season.  Therefore, it is fruitless and a bit unfair, IMO, to try to make a one to one player comparison of any kind. 
Yes, there are many unknowns on the Amherst team at this time and it will remain even into the season.  Your analyses of the teams are  helpful and enjoyable.  Still, it's basis is framed in a particular way...much as many economic analyses can and are done.
My less thoughtful projection wrt to Amherst rely on the coaching staff's ability to take the talent available..many unknowns here...and combine them into a competative team.  I see a  LJ team that will have more offense from the front court..may it simply be from offensive put backs.  I can see more points inside from the backcourt...mid- range shots.  I see assists from the #4/5 positions and yes from the PG.  Defensively, more blocks and even more steals.  Opponents maybe held to lower scores.
Anyway, that is why for me, this will be an exciting season.  Watching a DIFFERENT  LJ. team , in a way, battling in a tougher conference.  Thank you again for your posts.  You set a high standard.

[madzillagd]

Michael Mayer kicked off his pro career with a win in Spain.  15 pts, 10 rbs, 3 asts, 2 stls, 1 bs.
Toomey plays in the same league but didn't play in Week 1, I think he wasn't there for the game.

[middhoops]

Amh63, I agree with all of your points.
This will be a very different team in LeFrak this season.  Aaron Toomey was so many things integral to winning that we can't objectively list them all.  For opponents, worst of all; he was an assassin.  At the end of the shot clock with the ball in his hands, it was dismal for the rest of us.
This team won't shoot from the perimeter as well, but a Hixon team will find plenty of other ways to hurt you.  The LJs wll be very athletic, and with a healthy Pollack playing next to the most under rated player in the conference, David George, their inside presence will be offensively potent when needed.
Discussion of their imminent decline is a tad early.

[fanfromct]

Toomey missed game one due to injury.
https://twitter.com/_AT2me_
Hopefully he gets it going soon - like this week. They play every weekend.

[amh63]

Amherst has finally posted its schedule on its website.  However, as noted elsewhere, a fan has found conflicting start times to games.  It is the rotation of start times between men and women games.  Hopefully it will be corrected, as I have notified the SID of the errors.

[P'bearfan]

My less thoughtful projection wrt to Amherst rely on the coaching staff's ability to take the talent available..many unknowns here...and combine them into a competative team.  I see a  LJ team that will have more offense from the front court..may it simply be from offensive put backs.  I can see more points inside from the backcourt...mid- range shots.

I completely agree which is why I think Amherst may have trouble with teams that combine strong front courts with the potential to score from consistently behind the arc (e.g. Midd; Tufts; Colby).  But enough said from my end...

As you say it should be a fun season and there's no doubt that there will be many surprises as players develop and coaches adapt. 

[P'bearfan]

Anyway, there will be no individual player at Amherst that will replace Aaron's contributions from last season.  Therefore, it is fruitless and a bit unfair, IMO, to try to make a one to one player comparison of any kind.

Amh63 – My overly detailed analysis of Dawson's performance last year was partly in response to earlier posts that projected him as this season's NESCAC POY or were reporting comments from "those close to the LJ program that they've found their next Toomey".

I'm sure the guy has improved and maybe HBC Hixon's system is a better fit for him, but I can't see how he goes from last year's performance to fulfilling either of those prognostications.

[P'bearfan]

http://basketball.eurobasket.com/team/Spain/Gipuzkoa_BC_San_Sebastian/6645?Page=0

Former Bowdoin player Will Hanley in now the starting SG for Gipuzkoa.  In their first game Hanley played 20 minutes and finished with 7 points and 3 rebounds.

[amh63]

P'Bear...I understand.  Comments by " insider" and pundits in general in all sports make such statements that often begin as" the next coming of..." , put in a former great like Bo Jackson. 
Actually, I believe Dawson, with his athleticism, may take the role of Kalema...minus the outside shot.
Just a thought...more of an off- guard...scoring inside and in transition and contributing on the defensive side...with steals, etc.

[P'bearfan]

P'Bear....leaves the head coach a little short.  Assume his volunteer assistant is returning.  Any speculative rumors...is that a double negative?...of a replacement?  It must be a fine " gig" and a possible raise.

My understanding is that the new assistant will be Scott Faucher an assistant from St Mike's

[Bucket]

P'Bear....leaves the head coach a little short.  Assume his volunteer assistant is returning.  Any speculative rumors...is that a double negative?...of a replacement?  It must be a fine " gig" and a possible raise.

My understanding is that the new assistant will be Scoot Faucher an assistant from St Mike's

Son of Dave Faucher, former Dartmouth head coach (and current Daniel Webster coach). Scotty's two older brothers played for Russ Reilly @ Midd. And while Scotty was running around the Leede Arena court as a toddler in the early to mid-90s, the associate head coach for the Big Green at the time was none other than Mike Maker.

[amh63]

Bucket...always enjoy your "family" type inputs. +K