MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Fair point, ronk. 

[Old Guy]

Last week of classes here at Midd and probably elsewhere too. Last night I went to the concert hall to watch the final projects of a music composition class (we knew some of the students in the class). One of the compositions for flute, piano, guitar, and double bass was by Dylan Sinnickson, music being an academic minor of his. Very nice, impressive piece, and a reminder that I need now and then that these talented NESCAC players have other significant aspects to their lives as students.

[WPI89]

^ +1 Old Guy

[amh63]

Nice posts Nescac1 and Old Guy!
It was a long night of college BB for me as I watched the Tufts vs WPI closely and tried to catch some of the Trinity vs Springfield battle on my tablet.  Both competative and revealing games wrt to the teams at this point of the season.
I watched the big boys play in the ACC vs Big "10" Challenge...games.  I did a lot of switching around but glad I did, since it put some perspective into watching D3 BB in general and CAC BB in particular.
Will comment on my take of the Tufts game later in the day. 
One of the stories on D3 hoops.com, mentioned the number of early season "upsets"!
Upsets based on early season rankings.  Puts a little perspective on the worth of such rankings at this point of the season, imo. 
Believe the concern of the number of bids into the post season at this time fall into the pot of pure speculation.
In watching the Duke versus Wisconsin game, it was a game of BIG players flying down the floor making difficult shots and also making mistakes.  It was a game where great coaches making tactical player rotations...inserting freshmen into the game, etc. 
I was reminded that the flow of the games watched on how well the guards and big front court players played.
Here we have mentioned that this year the CAC is going to be defined by the play of the "big men".  I believe that it is also going to be defined by the guard play....based on the limited games I have watched.
My perspective point...in the CAC the big men are 3-4 inch shorter, not as skilled and not as quick.  Same with the guard play.  I need to make mental adjustments and be more forgiven in my judgements of players while watching.  I often forget. Same wrt to the caliber of the refs .
Comparing conferences at the D3 level is as difficult as comparing the ACC with the Big Ten.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It was me, by the way, the one bid thing.  I said it jokingly the first week (after the Williams losses), but it's more and more an option.  You're right, it's likely two bids right now, but with the non-conference losses being suffered, plus the reality than everyone short of Amherst likely loses at least 2 in conference, most more, you're going to be hard pressed to have the same gaudy records from the NESCAC as previous years.

You couple that with a very strong year in the Mid-Atlantic, plus all the conference realignment will likely even out the bids a little more, you've got a case where a down year in the NESCAC (which we can all agree this is, right?) might possibly mean one bid.  The games still have to be played, obviously, but it's going to be more difficult for sure than it's been in the past.

No one is going to feel confident losing the conference final.

[nescac1]

Duncan Robinson continues to impress at Michigan:

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2014/12/04/um-sophomore-duncan-robinson-impresses-practice/19887631/

[Panthernation]

You couple that with a very strong year in the Mid-Atlantic, plus all the conference realignment will likely even out the bids a little more, you've got a case where a down year in the NESCAC (which we can all agree this is, right?) might possibly mean one bid.

There is more parity, and a lot more uncertainty, than in the past couple of years. However, it's not yet clear if this is a down year compared to a typical year in the NESCAC.

Though the senior class and the Robinson/Hart/Stewart trio constitute major losses, there is reason to believe that beneath the superstar level, the talent drop-off isn't steep: the returns of Palleschi and (healthy) Hurley; the apparent ascension of Rooke-Ley, Sinnickson, Santos, and Kuo; the transfers of Dawson and Conklin; and the steady growth of the still-elite sophomore class.

Last year, in what was pretty clearly an "up" year, NESCAC teams were 56-21 (72%) out of conference through four weeks. This year, NESCAC teams are 50-15 (77%) out of conference. It is fair to say that there are fewer great teams (0 this year, 2 last year), but more very good teams. Often, being very good is enough to get an NCAA bid.

[AmherstStudent05]

Excellent observation from PN.  I am not sure I am ready to concede the parity point just yet (I am still reserving judgment), but the uncertainty factor is certainly huge. 

As has been commented on many times previously, the Class of 2014 was one of the very strongest in (at least) recent NESCAC history.  Obviously that class was headlined by Toomey, Mayer, and Kizel who would all unquestionably be "first ballot NESCAC hall of famers" and were a big reason why our conference has made 5 separate trips to Salem in the past two years and was filled out by many other great players (including HRL at one point).  Then, as PN noted, we also lost our two promising underclassmen, one of whom may well have been an all time NESCAC Mount Rushmore no-brainer had he stayed at Williams.

So we are entering what seems like a new era in NESCAC hoops.  Just as a matter of common sense, it would be hard to see the NESCAC performing as well on the national stage as it has the past two years since such an impossibly high standard has been set, but I don't think we are in a position yet to really characterize this group yet as they are just now getting a chance to come out of the Class of 14 shadow.

Just speaking about the team I know best, this year's Amherst team really hasn't accomplished much of anything (YET).  While Green and Pollack were key reserves on our National Championship team two years ago and Green and George were starters on our Final Four team last year, those teams had a different core.  Our current ranking is based on achievements earned (largely) by people who have Amherst diplomas.  Our current group hasn't really earned or proven a thing.  Our players have a lot of talent, they are fun to watch, and they have a truly outstanding coach, so I have high hopes, but we are a LONG way away from thinking about Pool A or Pool C (Maybe the previous two Amherst squads could have been excused for looking ahead, but this group has yet to earn that luxury). 

The beauty of the uncertainty is that I am sure fans of a lot of different programs (Midd, Williams, Bowdoin, Bates, etc) feel the exact same way about their own teams.  It may turn out that some of our optimism is misplaced, but we really need to wait until at least January to find out.

[Bucket]

It was me, by the way, the one bid thing.  I said it jokingly the first week (after the Williams losses), but it's more and more an option.  You're right, it's likely two bids right now, but with the non-conference losses being suffered, plus the reality than everyone short of Amherst likely loses at least 2 in conference, most more, you're going to be hard pressed to have the same gaudy records from the NESCAC as previous years.

You couple that with a very strong year in the Mid-Atlantic, plus all the conference realignment will likely even out the bids a little more, you've got a case where a down year in the NESCAC (which we can all agree this is, right?) might possibly mean one bid.  The games still have to be played, obviously, but it's going to be more difficult for sure than it's been in the past.

No one is going to feel confident losing the conference final.

I'm curious, HoopsFan, why you believe Amherst is the presumptive NESCAC king this year. No one who knows the conference well believes that to be the case.

All this hand-wringing and finality talk in early December is laughable.

I'll agree that the Jumbos have put themselves in a hole, but, again, those who know the conference well shouldn't be all that surprised either.

I'm sure there were folks who similarly wrote off Williams in December last year after losing to S Vermont and playing some uncomfortably close games against inferior opponents. How'd that work out for the Ephs?

I know that Middlebury has the potential to have as good a season as it ever has had, with several variables needing to align to make that happen. I bet Bowdoin, and Bates, can say the same.

I bet that if you measured this year's results with past year's, you wouldn't see much variation.

[amh63]

O.K....as my grandchild will say....some rambling comments on the Tufts vs WPI game yesterday.  Comments are what caught my attention in a very exciting game at Tufts.
First,,,WPI...the engineers played better than when I saw them at the Stevenson Hoopsville tournament.  The shorter team was up to the task of playing a taller overall team on their homecourt.  I clearly believe that Tufts was out coached by the WPI coach.  Sam Longwell carried WPI with his play in the second half, just as the non starter Zach Karalis did in the first half with his shooting...from outside.  Mastascsh played a key part for the engineers.  WPI played fine defense and battle for the ball inside and drove inside against the Twin Towers..causing foul problems for Tufts...impressive effort in a game that came down to the last few shot attempts by both teams.  WPI had better guard play all around.
Now for Tufts.  I wanted to see how the two big men for Tufts would be utilized.  I remember watching Tufts live in LeFrak when Palleschi was making his ROY run.  Played the 5 position then, I believe.  Comparing him to Sabety, I can see why he was moved to the 4 position when he is in with Sabety.  Sabety is much bigger all around and prefer the inside game.  Palleschi plays the high post....setting picks outside and can and did make a long shot outside.  Both players play good defense without leaving their feet...blocking shots with their length.  Dangerous when they are playing together inside.  When one takes an inside shot and misses, the other gets the rebound and puts it in.
Sabety picked up two fouls within the first 3 minutes....so I saw more of Palleschi alone.  There was only limited times that the two big men were effective playing together.  Palleschi seemed to me to need more rest.  Tufts brought in Drew Madsen often when Palleschi went out.  Drew is a big soph from San Deigo.  Has potential but not up to the level of the player he is replacing.  It is interesting to note that all THREE Jumbo big men are sophs.  I point that out because I believe Tufts is building an offense around the big men for the long run.  The problem presently at Tufts is the lack of guards...good guard play to date.  Tank Smith, another soph, is quick and aggressive but could not buy an open shot outside and drove inside and along the baseline with no reason but to score....Why? 
With respect to Ben Ferris, I have no idea.  At half time, he had 6 points.  Other than that, I can not tell you of any other contribution...sort of disappeared, imo, in the second half.  The wing players also seemed to me to be missing in action...so to speak.  On defense, they could not keep up with the WPI players.
Yes, WPI went up by double digits in the latter part of the 2nd half.  Tufts comeback was aided by several strange ref calls.  Yes, cannot leave out the refs.  One was a call that cut WPI's lead by three point...could have been 4 points but a foul shot was missed.  The call that had everyone confused...refs too...and the announcer..took awhile.  Tufts took a shot and missed inside.....one of the big men went up and tipped the ball in....whistle blew.  Over the back against Tufts?  No, shot good.  Three point play attempt as the big man goes to the foul line.  No!  Final decision, Shot good, but there was a foul on a shorter Tufts player inside...in the Rugby scrum.  Thus the 4 point play possibility.  Oh well.
With all the offense built around the Tufts big players, there was a play that revealed to me again the nature of college BB found at any level.  Down by three points, with less than 30 second or less to goal, a Tufts outside shot is missed.  There is a battle for the ball.  Both Palleschi and Sabety got rebounds and shots off close to the basket, misses, only to lose the final rebound to a WPI player.  Game over.
I shook my head and remembered a similar incident by Amherst's big men in the Amherst game earlier in the week.  Amherst tall players got four...yes four attempts under the basket and mussed them.
Final take on Tufts.....dangerous team for all CAC teams.  Oh yes, Trinity's third win in a row against a good Springfield team shows that this season, the CAC is indeed leveling out.  Trinity also has some impact big men, imo.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If Amherst isn't a cut above, that gives even more credence to the idea that extra bids will be harder to come by.  I'm certainly not sold on a team playing such a weak schedule, but they do seem to be as or more fully formed than the rest of the squads early.  Early doesn't mean anything, as you adroitly pointed out.  Williams became a much better team by the end of the year - that's hard work and good coaching.  However, with the way Pool C bids go, losing too many games while you're trying to figure things out early on can be really harmful in the spring.

Yes, the NESCAC is winning at about the same percentage as last year, but I'd be curious to see how the strength of schedule stacks up.  It sure seems to me like the NESCAC is losing the kind of games it doesn't traditionally lose.  Sure, good teams (and more than usual are clearly good teams) will round into form over time.  I'm just saying that some of these early losses might just be more difficult to overcome than in past years.

This season is a whole new ball game and I'm not sure how everything's going to pan out.

[AmherstStudent05]

I'm sure there were folks who similarly wrote off Williams in December last year after losing to S Vermont and playing some uncomfortably close games against inferior opponents. How'd that work out for the Ephs?

Personally, I don't recall anyone writing off Williams this time last year.  After all, they had two returning All-NESCAC players (not to mention a perhaps once-in-a-lifetime recruit, though I am not sure most of us fully appreciated that latter point at the time).  Ironically, the only time I recall seeing some of the Eph faithful "rushing for the exits" last year was during halftime in Pepin.

[middhoops]

Bad few days for Bowdoin.  Crushed by Bates.
Bates played some tough, gritty ball at home tonight.  Early in the second half, Malcolm DelPeche sat with three fouls.  His brother stepped up huge.  Marcus DP was a beast.
IMO if Bates isn't a top 25 ranked team, they're grossly under rated.

John Swords didn't look quite right.  Injury or illness?  Two games in a row where he has not forced himself upon the game.  Definitely not the guy who tore it up last season.  Not right now, any way.

[P'bearfan]

Another tough 20 point loss for Bowdoin as they fall to Bates:  51-71

I only saw the last few minutes of the first half but the teams went to the break with Bates holding just a 2 point lead, 32-30.

The wheels starting coming off early in the second half for Bowdoin and by mid way through Bates had built a double digit lead.  Bowdoin had trouble getting the ball in low.  Bates was effective in forcing the P'bears into perimeter passing and taking long contested shots.  Bates also did an excellent job of jumping Bowdoin's passing lanes and converting those steals into points.  Bowdoin was outrebounded for the second game in a row, this time 22-39.

Lucas Hausman led the way for Bowdoin with 22 points and Keegan Pieri chipped in 10.  Swords had a particularly tough game finishing with just 5 points and 3 rebounds.  Both Neil Fuller and Matt Palecki left the game early with apparent injuries.  Hope both are OK and return quickly.

[lumbercat]

Pretty good basketball team up in Lewiston folks.
The Delpeche twins are the most athletic big men in the league and getting better by the game.
Bates coach Furbush coming of age in the same way.
Alumni Gym was nuts tonight in the Bates tradition.