MBB: NESCAC

[quicksilver]

I actually think Bowdoin is definitely in too.  I had thought that they could get stuck in a three-way tie at 5-5 with Wes and Midd (which, while I am not sure on tiebreaks, I believe would have to be resolved by coin flip), but I think that can only happen if Williams goes 4-6 or 5-5.  I think if either Williams or Colby joins Bowdoin, Midd and Wes at 5-5 the Bears are safe.

Tufts could actually be safe too for similar reasons.

In the case of ties involving 3 or more teams, the first tiebreaker is their records against each other and the next is their records against the top 4 teams. There are several other tests that would be applied in sequence, with the coin flip happening only if the tie cannot be broken under any of the other criteria. If there were a 3-way tie among Wes, Bowdoin, and Middlebury, their records against each other are 1-1 so you would look at their records against the top 4 teams (including teams that may tie for 4th place) -- since we don't know who those top 4 teams are, it is too early to try to apply the second criteria (and the other criteria after that).

Many thanks, quicksilver. This is very helpful.  Could I possibly trouble you to help me through the following scenario: Bowdoin, Williams, Midd and Wesleyan all end the season tied for 6th with records of 5-5.  Bowdoin would have a record of 2-1 against the other three teams.  So would Wesleyan.  Williams and Midd would each have a record of 1-2.

How would this play out? Do Bowdoin and Wes each "advance" while Williams and Midd are then left behind.  And, if so do you then revert back to head-to-head tiebreaks to break the resulting ties between Bowdoin-Wes and Williams-Midd?  Therefore, would this scenario shakeout: 6. Wes, 7. Bow, 8. Wil, 9. Midd? Or do you just have to look at how they each fared against the top four teams (whoever they may end up being)?

Amherststudent05, the tie-breaking system works exactly as you surmise. As soon as the criteria work to separate any of the tied teams, you pull it (or them) out of the group of tied teams, re-applying the criteria if more than one team has been pulled out, starting with the head-to-head test. So, yes, Wes and Bowdoin get pulled out first with their 2-1 records within the group of tied teams and then Wes gets the edge over Bowdoin due to its win in their head-to-head game and so on . .

[Red1]

Just a quick clarification on hosting:  The host of the semi-finals and finals of the NESCAC tournament is the highest remaining seed after the first round.  There is no other criteria for the NESCAC, and if Bates is the highest remaining seed at that point then they will host.  NCAAs is another story.  Bates can host first and 2nd round games, but cannot host sectionals (sweet 16, elite 8) or further since the gym does not meet the requirement of seating 1000 fans.  Bates can still apply to host a sectional, if they're still playing, and if no one left in that section meets all the requirements (which include enough local lodging, practice space, etc.) the NCAA could still, in theory, choose Bates for those games, but it's highly unlikely.

That said, although the legal capacity of Alumni gym is 750 Bates can squeeze in up to nearly 900 I think (not legally).  Back in the days when Coach Furbush was a player, and a few years after, both the men's and women's teams were very strong.  (The women's team went into the NCAAs as the #1 team in the country at one point.)  At that time the attendance, according to the SID was over 1000 (I think around 1050).  I believe that was embellished a bit as an attempt to get the NCAA to let Bates host the women's sectional.  It didn't work.  Even taking the embellishment into account the attendance was well over 750 back then.  All the stands were filled with the fans shoulder to shoulder, all corners had people standing in them, even the gap between the stands where players enter and exit was full of fans.  Some fans were also allowed up to the press box area just to help fit them all.  The downside was that the local fire marshall (who's evidently not as basketball friendly as the one in Amherst, MA) got wind of it.  For a couple of years after that Students stood by the doors stamping hands and counting people and the doors had to close when 750 was reached preventing any extra people from going in.  That restriction has been lifted, so if Bates gets to host some post season games and some extra fans want to squeeze in that could be possible.  Just remember, if anyone asks how many people were in the gym, the number, clearly, could not have been more than 715

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Just a quick clarification on hosting:  The host of the semi-finals and finals of the NESCAC tournament is the highest remaining seed after the first round.  There is no other criteria for the NESCAC, and if Bates is the highest remaining seed at that point then they will host.  NCAAs is another story.  Bates can host first and 2nd round games, but cannot host sectionals (sweet 16, elite 8) or further since the gym does not meet the requirement of seating 1000 fans.  Bates can still apply to host a sectional, if they're still playing, and if no one left in that section meets all the requirements (which include enough local lodging, practice space, etc.) the NCAA could still, in theory, choose Bates for those games, but it's highly unlikely.

That said, although the legal capacity of Alumni gym is 750 Bates can squeeze in up to nearly 900 I think (not legally).  Back in the days when Coach Furbush was a player, and a few years after, both the men's and women's teams were very strong.  (The women's team went into the NCAAs as the #1 team in the country at one point.)  At that time the attendance, according to the SID was over 1000 (I think around 1050).  I believe that was embellished a bit as an attempt to get the NCAA to let Bates host the women's sectional.  It didn't work.  Even taking the embellishment into account the attendance was well over 750 back then.  All the stands were filled with the fans shoulder to shoulder, all corners had people standing in them, even the gap between the stands where players enter and exit was full of fans.  Some fans were also allowed up to the press box area just to help fit them all.  The downside was that the local fire marshall (who's evidently not as basketball friendly as the one in Amherst, MA) got wind of it.  For a couple of years after that Students stood by the doors stamping hands and counting people and the doors had to close when 750 was reached preventing any extra people from going in.  That restriction has been lifted, so if Bates gets to host some post season games and some extra fans want to squeeze in that could be possible.  Just remember, if anyone asks how many people were in the gym, the number, clearly, could not have been more than 715

Not necessarily true about NCAA first weekend... we have seen examples when teams who have below 1,000 seat arenas denied hosting opportunities. We have also seen when it is close there is a split admission for the two Friday games. Honestly, hard to automatically assume Bates is fine for one weekend.

[amh63]

NothingButNescac .....thanks for your effort and post!  Plus K......this reminds me of a course I took in school...Decision Analysis was the key text.  One makes all sorts of spider like charts with probability numbers attached.  One of the key lecturer applied it to a case study....Electric Boat in Groton Ct. Conclusion....after all the math applications....the " mish mash" evolutional approach taking by management was just as good.
Suggest a student take this as an thesis topic in Stats.  In any case the final effort could be colorized via computer and sold as modern art.  Best stick to Greek.  My daughter wanted to major in Greek at Amherst.  Me, I'm having trouble with logic.  Heading South soon as I see another storm hitting NE.

[AmherstStudent05]

I actually think Bowdoin is definitely in too.  I had thought that they could get stuck in a three-way tie at 5-5 with Wes and Midd (which, while I am not sure on tiebreaks, I believe would have to be resolved by coin flip), but I think that can only happen if Williams goes 4-6 or 5-5.  I think if either Williams or Colby joins Bowdoin, Midd and Wes at 5-5 the Bears are safe.

Tufts could actually be safe too for similar reasons.

In the case of ties involving 3 or more teams, the first tiebreaker is their records against each other and the next is their records against the top 4 teams. There are several other tests that would be applied in sequence, with the coin flip happening only if the tie cannot be broken under any of the other criteria. If there were a 3-way tie among Wes, Bowdoin, and Middlebury, their records against each other are 1-1 so you would look at their records against the top 4 teams (including teams that may tie for 4th place) -- since we don't know who those top 4 teams are, it is too early to try to apply the second criteria (and the other criteria after that).

Many thanks, quicksilver. This is very helpful.  Could I possibly trouble you to help me through the following scenario: Bowdoin, Williams, Midd and Wesleyan all end the season tied for 6th with records of 5-5.  Bowdoin would have a record of 2-1 against the other three teams.  So would Wesleyan.  Williams and Midd would each have a record of 1-2.

How would this play out? Do Bowdoin and Wes each "advance" while Williams and Midd are then left behind.  And, if so do you then revert back to head-to-head tiebreaks to break the resulting ties between Bowdoin-Wes and Williams-Midd?  Therefore, would this scenario shakeout: 6. Wes, 7. Bow, 8. Wil, 9. Midd? Or do you just have to look at how they each fared against the top four teams (whoever they may end up being)?

Amherststudent05, the tie-breaking system works exactly as you surmise. As soon as the criteria work to separate any of the tied teams, you pull it (or them) out of the group of tied teams, re-applying the criteria if more than one team has been pulled out, starting with the head-to-head test. So, yes, Wes and Bowdoin get pulled out first with their 2-1 records within the group of tied teams and then Wes gets the edge over Bowdoin due to its win in their head-to-head game and so on . .

Thanks again, quicksilver.

[hoya73]

We haven't has a final regular season weekend and a first round tourney weekend in the NESCAC like this in a long time.  This is going to be awesome.  Probably more awesome for some and less awesome for others, but awesome nonetheless.

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed, the D3hoops site is very slow booting up.  I don't find it to be a serious problem, however.
Hey Pat, are we going to have a fund raiser soon?  Another great season.  You guys deserve some support.

I've decided to give up on something we added to the site about a month ago, which is adding individual conference scoreboards to the dropdown menu on the home page. There are just too many conferences, I'm afraid, and I think that may be slowing down the home page. So I eliminated those menu links, although the scoreboard pages still exist.

Hopefully this helps.

As for fundraising -- Dave has one running for his Hoopsville show at the moment. I don't get any of that for D3hoops.com in general but we are in pretty good shape. I would love to add someone with professional editing experience to the team, and then a few more writers. That would be our next goal.

[nescac1]

Too bad we don't have Walzy anymore.  Setting remotely accurate lines for this season would be a truly herculean feat.  But I'm going to take a shot for this huge final weekend of play:

Friday:

Tufts +2 at Colby -- two teams suffering from the loss of star big men.  Tufts still has one, but then again Colby is at home and has acquitted itself surprisingly well since the loss of Hudnut, so they get the slight edge.

Bates -2 at Bowdoin -- another very tight match-up, but I like how Bates matches up vs. Bowdoin's top guys ... Selmon could give Hausman trouble, and the Delpeches will swarm on Swords inside.  Bowdoin is very well organized and a lot of role players have stepped up in recent weeks.  Hurley v. Safford is a great match-up at the point. 

Wesleyan -3 at Hamilton -- Hamilton plays most teams tight.  Wesleyan has a lot more to play for, and has a bit more talent across the board. 

Conn College +12 at Williams -- should be an easy win for the Ephs, but then again, like many teams the Ephs are very unpredictable this year, and Conn is capable of playing feisty in stretches

Trinity -5 at Middlebury -- now that they've clinched first place, there is always the danger of the Trinity team who lost to Merchant Marine, Fisher and Salem showing up ... for Trinity, it's all about effort and intensity.  But their swarm of big physical guys could really punish Midd inside if they are zoned-in. 

Saturday:

Bates -7 at Colby -- I think Colby struggles a bit in this one, especially on the interior without Hudnut

Tufts +5 at Bowdoin -- Tufts is another team who is very unpredictable.  This game will almost certainly have enormous seeding implications for the NESCAC tourney.  Palleschi vs. Swords should be fun, two totally different styles of play.

Conn College +7 at Hamilton -- I think Hamilton wins to stay out of the cellar here.  Conn has a nice group of frosh so next year could be interesting (although we seem to say that every year about Conn, before half of those frosh leave the program for greener pastures). 

Wesleyan +5 at Williams -- Cards' duo of Kuo and Epps are a tough match-up for the Ephs inside, but Williams is more experienced and has the best two guys on the court

Sunday

Amherst -7 at Middlebury -- the hottest team in the league vs. one who is struggling a bit right now.  But Amherst-Midd games are rarely uninteresting, so this may be a bit generous. 

[polbear73]

Thanks nescac1.  Great job as your spreads and comments capture what should be a fascinating final weekend of a totally unpredictable season. 

[amh63]

Pat C. ......Thanks for the effort and steps taken to speed things up!  There is always the unforeseen "overload" of too much data/ info....at times.
With all the tributes to Dean Smith being written, one bit of info ...in an article in today's
WSJ....was that Coach Smith was a math major!  The Coach that gave us the 4 corner offense....leading to the introduction of the shot clock".  He study the game from an analytic viewpoint, it seems.  He valued the efficiency of each possession...not so much how many points was scored in a game, but what you did with each possession.  TOs must have given him nightmares.  Introduced multi- offense approach in a game.  Stats, shot efficiency, etc....wonder if he ever commented on the 3-point offense that is seen everywhere these days.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Pat C. ......Thanks for the effort and steps taken to speed things up!  There is always the unforeseen "overload" of too much data/ info....at times.
With all the tributes to Dean Smith being written, one bit of info ...in an article in today's
WSJ....was that Coach Smith was a math major!  The Coach that gave us the 4 corner offence ..leading to the introduction of the shot clock".  He study the game from an analytic viewpoint, it seems.  He valued the efficiency of each possession...not so much how many points was scored in a game, but what you did with each possession.  TOs must have given him nightmares.  Introduced multi- offense approach in a game.  Stats, shot efficiency, etc....wonder if he ever commented on the 3-point offense that is seen everywhere these days.

I believe Smith went to the four corners in part to force the NCAA to institute a shot clock.  He wanted the game moving.

[P'bearfan]

I believe Smith went to the four corners in part to force the NCAA to institute a shot clock.  He wanted the game moving.

If true, that is the very definition of irony.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I believe Smith went to the four corners in part to force the NCAA to institute a shot clock.  He wanted the game moving.

If true, that is the very definition of irony.

I think I heard Gary Williams say it on ESPN today.

[pinseeking1]

[/quote]
I believe Smith went to the four corners in part to force the NCAA to institute a shot clock.  He wanted the game moving.
[/quote]

Sounds a little hard to believe. His teams were masterful in running the 4 Corners and they were always great free throw shooting teams. It was almost impossible to catch his teams once they had a lead. He may have preferred a shot clock, but I suspect that he used the 4 Corners offense to beat teams with a legal tool in his arsenal, not to change minds at the NCAA. (It's very possible that he preferred a shot clock as a fan, though, because those 4 Corners games were just insufferable to watch...)

[Bucket]

I believe Smith went to the four corners in part to force the NCAA to institute a shot clock.  He wanted the game moving.
[/quote]

Sounds a little hard to believe. His teams were masterful in running the 4 Corners and they were always great free throw shooting teams. It was almost impossible to catch his teams once they had a lead. He may have preferred a shot clock, but I suspect that he used the 4 Corners offense to beat teams with a legal tool in his arsenal, not to change minds at the NCAA. (It's very possible that he preferred a shot clock as a fan, though, because those 4 Corners games were just insufferable to watch...)
[/quote]

As a UVa diehard, raised during the Sampson era, I suffer from PTSD anytime I see any semblance of the Four Corners.