MBB: NESCAC

[NEhoops]

Middhoops, those rankings seem about right.

Tier One:
MID - They're in line for an at large regardless of this week; Plattsburgh State (10-11) won't mean much at this point.
WES - Their focus at this point is making the NESCAC tournament. They should sweep this weekend and could end up hosting a quarterfinal at the four seed. Also in a good spot for an at-large.
TUF - They'll be hosting Williams, but the Ephs are feeling good. They'll also be hosting a quarterfinal, but won't be a heavy favorite if Palleschi is still out. The MIT win will hold some weight and they should be in the at-large mix.
AMH - They need to finish strong on the road (at least a split) and take care of business in the quarterfinal. The win vs. Babson looks real good.
WIL - Like WES, their focus at this point is making the NESCAC tournament. They need at least a split this weekend. Not an easy task - on the road vs. Tufts and Bates. Hope and Eastern CT wins are a good plus.

Tier Two:
TRI - Tough road trip - they need to make a statement. W/L and SOS isn't great. Hard to tell at this point - don't really have a signature win. 
HAM - Still on the NESCAC tourney bubble. I think they need a sweep to even stay in the conversation - the SUNY Cobleskill game won't mean much. SOS is not great - they lost to BAT, but beat WES and WIL.   
BAT - Also, on the NESCAC tourney bubble. Have to beat WIL and most likely steal a quarterfinal and have some other stuff happen for them to get a bid. They have a win over HAM.   
 

[nescac1]

Regional rankings posted.  This does not include last night, and I think Amherst and Wesleyan would now be flipped.  ENORMOUS week ahead with Williams playing at ranked Tufts and Bates, Middlebury/Amherst playing in a huge clash, and UMD and Eastern Conn playing in essentially a Pool C elimination game.  These rankings could shake up quite a bit depending on the results. 

1   Babson   20-1   20-1      
2   Middlebury   18-3   18-3      
3   Amherst   16-4   16-4      
4   Tufts   17-5   17-5      
5   Wesleyan (CT)   16-5   16-5      
6   Williams   16-6   16-6      
7   Eastern Conn. St.   14-7   14-7      
8   UMass Dartmouth   14-7   14-7      
9   MIT   16-5   16-5      
10   Keene St.   14-7   14-7      
11   Bates   15-8   15-8

[NEhoops]

Its going to be fun seeing 2-6 sort itself out.

As for Bates, I think my assessment was on point. They'll have to beat Williams and most likely steal a quarterfinal game on the road to be in the at-large conversation.

Maybe a down year in NE, but great to see the NESCAC pounce on the opportunities.

[nescac1]

I believe, NEHoops (though I'm not positive) you need to have a .667 record to even be considered for Pool C.  Which means Bates would have to beat Williams and win TWO games in NESCAC just to be considered. 

For that reason (and because they could even fall out of the NESCAC tourney entirely) Williams desparately needs at least one win this weekend.   I think a pair of wins this weekend for any of Amherst, Williams or Wesleyan very likely locks up a tourney spot, barring a massive number of upsets on conference tourneys.  Even a split for Wesleyan may do the trick.  Midd and Tufts are likely both already in no matter what.  In other words, I think 18 wins is what a NESCAC team needs this year when you look at how they are stacking up overall in the Pool C rankings nationally. 

[grabtherim]

No one should count their chickens.  A few bad losses this week, next and things will change in a heartbeat.  Remember, at 9:45 Sunday night, Atlanta was 98.5% likely to win the Super Bowl. 

[toad22]

No one should count their chickens.  A few bad losses this week, next and things will change in a heartbeat.  Remember, at 9:45 Sunday night, Atlanta was 98.5% likely to win the Super Bowl.

Boy is that the truth. Nothing is given to you in sports - you have to take it. All of these teams will rise or fall on their own efforts, as it should be.

[P'bearfan]

No one should count their chickens.  A few bad losses this week, next and things will change in a heartbeat.  Remember, at 9:45 Sunday night, Atlanta was 98.5% likely to win the Super Bowl.

Ouch!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Regional rankings posted.  This does not include last night, and I think Amherst and Wesleyan would now be flipped.  ENORMOUS week ahead with Williams playing at ranked Tufts and Bates, Middlebury/Amherst playing in a huge clash, and UMD and Eastern Conn playing in essentially a Pool C elimination game.  These rankings could shake up quite a bit depending on the results. 

1   Babson   20-1   20-1      
2   Middlebury   18-3   18-3      
3   Amherst   16-4   16-4      
4   Tufts   17-5   17-5      
5   Wesleyan (CT)   16-5   16-5      
6   Williams   16-6   16-6      
7   Eastern Conn. St.   14-7   14-7      
8   UMass Dartmouth   14-7   14-7      
9   MIT   16-5   16-5      
10   Keene St.   14-7   14-7      
11   Bates   15-8   15-8

I said on Hoopsville this afternoon (Wednesday)... 2-6 are a jumble that are going to be very interesting to watch considering the results between each other. I think the line between chance to get in and on a very dangerous bubble (probably on the outside looking in) is betweeen 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 right now.

I believe, NEHoops (though I'm not positive) you need to have a .667 record to even be considered for Pool C.  Which means Bates would have to beat Williams and win TWO games in NESCAC just to be considered. 

For that reason (and because they could even fall out of the NESCAC tourney entirely) Williams desparately needs at least one win this weekend.   I think a pair of wins this weekend for any of Amherst, Williams or Wesleyan very likely locks up a tourney spot, barring a massive number of upsets on conference tourneys.  Even a split for Wesleyan may do the trick.  Midd and Tufts are likely both already in no matter what.  In other words, I think 18 wins is what a NESCAC team needs this year when you look at how they are stacking up overall in the Pool C rankings nationally. 

Yes... the committee since the advent of the SOS has not admitted a Pool C team with a winning percentage of .667 or below. But really, if you are .700 or below you are in serious trouble. Emory with one of the country's best SOS numbers in the country last year, but did not make the tournament with a WL% of .681 last season.

Also, if the SOS is .520 or below, in my opinion, a team is in jeopardy. We usually say .500 and below, but I don't think .500 to .520 is safe.

And keep in mind, gaudy high SOS numbers may not be an advantage as it has been in the past. Emory last year is a great example of how the committee puts sunglasses on with those numbers so they stop being blinded. We can point to a number of years when gaudy SOS teams got in and laid eggs in the first round. The committee is aware, ESPECIALLY in the Northeast Region, that sometimes the high SOS numbers are not telling the whole story.

[middhoops]

If no one else posted the Strength of Schedule ratings, it's included in this rating of every D3 men's team.
In the present Pool C rankings, the northeast region looks very strong.



http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

[Middfan]

Nice article about Matt St. Amour in the Burlington Free Press.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/sports/college/2017/02/08/matt-st-amours-final-act/97678786/

[Cards Fan]

What's interesting to see is the Cardinals placement right now. With some wins they won't get the 7th seed, but if the season ended today they'd play Amherst for a third time. That would be a fun game to watch, as Wes topped them easily the first matchup and not so easily the second time. They would have to get a third win over one of the strongest NESCAC teams, and odds are likely against that.

If the season ended now:

#1 Tufts v #8 Bates

#2 Amherst v #7 Wesleyan

#3 Midd v #6 Williams

#4 Trinity v #5 Hamilton

This won't be how it ends I don't believe, there will likely be lots of shifting.

[nescac1]

What's crazy about the current seeding -- and I agree, there is almost no chance that will hold -- is that Bates beat Tufts, Wesleyan beat Amherst twice, and Williams beat Midd (Trinity/Hamilton have yet to play).  Shows just how unpredictable / crazy NESCAC has been this year.  I do think Wesleyan is best positioned to rise as the Cards have by far the easiest end to the season of the teams listed -- home to Bowdoin and Colby (although again, Bowdoin has shown it can play with anyone on any given night).  Amherst, Trinity, and Williams, on the other hand, all have brutal final weekends, with two road games each against two of the top eight. 

[ECSUalum]

What's crazy about the current seeding -- and I agree, there is almost no chance that will hold -- is that Bates beat Tufts, Wesleyan beat Amherst twice, and Williams beat Midd (Trinity/Hamilton have yet to play).  Shows just how unpredictable / crazy NESCAC has been this year.  I do think Wesleyan is best positioned to rise as the Cards have by far the easiest end to the season of the teams listed -- home to Bowdoin and Colby (although again, Bowdoin has shown it can play with anyone on any given night).  Amherst, Trinity, and Williams, on the other hand, all have brutal final weekends, with two road games each against two of the top eight.

nescac1, Do you think this is a 1 off year with parity in the CAC, or do you think the big 3 (Amherst, Williams and Middlebury) will rise again to dominate going forward?  And, do you think the CAC schools are equal in their ability to recruit impact players, (ie as defined by significant playing time or starting all 4 yrs)?
IMO it seems that slowly but surely the historically bottom feeders, (other than Colby) are now recruiting players that make them much more competitive!

[nescac1]

ECSU, in the 2010-2014 period it was pretty much a big three, with Williams, Amherst and Midd dominating the league (and all three having elite programs nationally, combining for a national title, two second place finishes, and three other final four appearances during that time period).  Since that time, there has really been far more parity.  Williams took a major step back for a few years after the dual blow of losing its coach and superstar player.  Midd also took a step back before recovering its footing late last season, continuing into this year.  Amherst has remained consistently strong, but hasn't been the same since graduating Toomey, no longer dominating in league play.  Meanwhile, Tufts, Bates, Trinity, Wesleyan have all had some really strong teams during that same time period.  So it's really been three years of tremendous competitive balance in the league, not just one.

And I think that will continue.  Hamilton is clearly a team on the rise and could be a top NESCAC contender as early as next season.  Wesleyan and Bowdoin both have a tremendous sophomore class.  Tufts keeps bringing in really talented players.  Bates brought in a loaded frosh class this year.  Meanwhile, Amherst is an enormous question mark after this year considering that only one frosh/soph on the roster has seen any significant playing time, and six rotation seniors are graduating.  Midd also is losing its top two scorers not to mention the blow from losing Baines to transfer.  So I think there really has not been a big three for several years, and there is no prospect of anything but a very balanced league, once again, next year.

[ECSUalum]

ECSU, in the 2010-2014 period it was pretty much a big three, with Williams, Amherst and Midd dominating the league (and all three having elite programs nationally, combining for a national title, two second place finishes, and three other final four appearances during that time period).  Since that time, there has really been far more parity.  Williams took a major step back for a few years after the dual blow of losing its coach and superstar player.  Midd also took a step back before recovering its footing late last season, continuing into this year.  Amherst has remained consistently strong, but hasn't been the same since graduating Toomey, no longer dominating in league play.  Meanwhile, Tufts, Bates, Trinity, Wesleyan have all had some really strong teams during that same time period.  So it's really been three years of tremendous competitive balance in the league, not just one.

And I think that will continue.  Hamilton is clearly a team on the rise and could be a top NESCAC contender as early as next season.  Wesleyan and Bowdoin both have a tremendous sophomore class.  Tufts keeps bringing in really talented players.  Bates brought in a loaded frosh class this year.  Meanwhile, Amherst is an enormous question mark after this year considering that only one frosh/soph on the roster has seen any significant playing time, and six rotation seniors are graduating.  Midd also is losing its top two scorers not to mention the blow from losing Baines to transfer.  So I think there really has not been a big three for several years, and there is no prospect of anything but a very balanced league, once again, next year.

Nescac, Thanks for your keen insights into the NESCAC, in particular and NE D-III basketball in general... very interesting!!!