MBB: NESCAC

[Cards Fan]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

[maineman]

Bates played great at Middlebury. The Delpeches played like they didn't want their season to end (35 points, 19 rebounds) and the Bates guards shot the lights out (13-27 from three, but the last three 3pt attempts were desperation heaves in the last minute).

The Bobcats weathered the initial Middlebury assault (20-5 after seven minutes) to get within ten at the half. The Midd lead early was as many as 17 points. Matt St. Amour had 21 in the first half, then Bates came out and throttled him (I can hear Furbush at the half - "You need convincing #11 can shoot? Get on him!). Matt scored his 13 second half points in the final 7:20 of the game, the best shot a falling out of bounds flick of a 3 pointer from an impossible angle to break a tie.

Is there anyone playing better in all of D3 than Matt St. Amour? He's playing his best basketball against the best teams in the league in crunch time, averaging 26+pts in the last eight games (six NESCAC opponents and Keene State and Plattsburgh - no patsies). Plus, he's much more than a scorer: he's a defender (among the league leaders in steals - 1.8 a game), a passer (3 assists per game; 5 today); a rebounder (5 per game). He's a terrific scorer and a complete player.

Midd clearly misses Jake Brown, but Jack Daly again was heroic at the point with 14 points and 11 assists (and 5 rebounds and 3 steals). Big Eric McCord had his hands full with the Delpeches but just gets better and better (13 points, 11 rebounds today) - he works very hard and makes his contribution with little fanfare; Adisa Majors had 10 points (two big foul shots down the stretch after we had missed the front end of three consecutive one and ones) and 4 rebounds - that's good production from the 5. Tarantino continued his effective play with 7 rebounds - he runs the floor and plays above the rim. Bryan Jones hit three 3s and kept the Bates D honest. St. Amour may have had 34 but it was a team win, a grinder.

On to Boston and the Bantams.

A 17 point lead for Midd is always a bad sign.  It usually means they are going to cool off in the second half and let the other team back in.  This happened in the Endicott, RPI, Skidmore and Keene games as well as today.  Fortunately they won all of them except the Endicott game and Midd never completely let Keene back into the game, if my memory serves me correctly.

[Bucket]

Bates played great at Middlebury. The Delpeches played like they didn't want their season to end (35 points, 19 rebounds) and the Bates guards shot the lights out (13-27 from three, but the last three 3pt attempts were desperation heaves in the last minute).

The Bobcats weathered the initial Middlebury assault (20-5 after seven minutes) to get within ten at the half. The Midd lead early was as many as 17 points. Matt St. Amour had 21 in the first half, then Bates came out and throttled him (I can hear Furbush at the half - "You need convincing #11 can shoot? Get on him!). Matt scored his 13 second half points in the final 7:20 of the game, the best shot a falling out of bounds flick of a 3 pointer from an impossible angle to break a tie.

Is there anyone playing better in all of D3 than Matt St. Amour? He's playing his best basketball against the best teams in the league in crunch time, averaging 26+pts in the last eight games (six NESCAC opponents and Keene State and Plattsburgh - no patsies). Plus, he's much more than a scorer: he's a defender (among the league leaders in steals - 1.8 a game), a passer (3 assists per game; 5 today); a rebounder (5 per game). He's a terrific scorer and a complete player.

Midd clearly misses Jake Brown, but Jack Daly again was heroic at the point with 14 points and 11 assists (and 5 rebounds and 3 steals). Big Eric McCord had his hands full with the Delpeches but just gets better and better (13 points, 11 rebounds today) - he works very hard and makes his contribution with little fanfare; Adisa Majors had 10 points (two big foul shots down the stretch after we had missed the front end of three consecutive one and ones) and 4 rebounds - that's good production from the 5. Tarantino continued his effective play with 7 rebounds - he runs the floor and plays above the rim. Bryan Jones hit three 3s and kept the Bates D honest. St. Amour may have had 34 but it was a team win, a grinder.

On to Boston and the Bantams.

A 17 point lead for Midd is always a bad sign.  It usually means they are going to cool off in the second half and let the other team back in.  This happened in the Endicott, RPI, Skidmore and Keene games as well as today.  Fortunately they won all of them except the Endicott game and Midd never completely let Keene back into the game, if my memory serves me correctly.

"Always a bad sign"? Hmm. Had 17-point leads against Amherst, Hamilton, Trinity, and Bowdoin, and won all of those games handedly (15, 33, 17, and 30). So I don't think it "usually" means the Panthers are going to cool off.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

[grabtherim]

I can't pretend to understand half the metrics and other stuff discussed here on who might get in or not.  What I do know is playoffs produce crazy games.  I watched the entire Midd game and much of the Wes/Trin game.  It was clear Bates 3 pt shooting was keeping them just close enough to keep Midd within reach if they could make a run which they did.  Great effort by the Bobcats, and gutcheck game for the Panthers playing again without their everyday PG.  Hopefully he can go next week, but if his injury is a high ankle sprain, they can linger for a long time.  By this point of the season, freshman are sophs, I expect to see a few of Midd's young guys who may have hit a bit of a mid-season wall finding a second breath and helping out big time.  The Wes/Trinity game was a strange one.  At points it looked like both team forgot how to shoot the ball.  Even with that, Wes seemed to be controlling the flow in front of a very large loud home crowd.  Trinity was out of sorts.  A technical foul and 4 pts from their best player late in game, seemed to tell me their season was about to end.  Right then, everything went south for Wes and a few breaks went right for Trinity and they steal a game with 2 seconds to go.  Nuts.  Looking forward to next week.  Sure to be another roller coaster ride. 

[Canvas Hightops]

I second what Old Guy wrote.
Team win.  Grinder.

Late in the season it appears especially evident that St. Amour and Jack Daly can bring their team back or preserve a victory by sheer will and enormous effort.  Clearly the Panthers miss Jake Brown and need him back for a serious run in the big tourney.  His quickness and shut down defense are irreplaceable.
But until he is healthy, Middlebury is talented and deep enough to make a respectable showing.

Without Brown, the Trinity game on Saturday will probably be another team win (or loss) but definitely a grinder.

Look out for the Ephs, Jumbo fans.  The NESCAC tourney has a recent history of non-favorites making a run to the championship. 
The question is which Williams squad will show up in Medford.  The one that won at Amherst or the one that was beaten badly by Tufts in their first meeting?

[Cards Fan]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

I think one won't make it, otherwise 5 nescac teams at least will be in.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

I think one won't make it, otherwise 5 nescac teams at least will be in.

Williams and Wesleyan are the low candidates right now, but we've got one more regional ranking to see where things stand before selection. That'll help.

[middhoops]

Latest RPI ratings from Knightslappy (I think).
Williams leaps over Wesleyan but Amherst stands pat.
UW River Falls drops a game, moving Middlebury and Babson up to the top of the RPI ratings.
Midd has the highest SoS and RPI in D3 according to these stats. 
And, yes Dave, I know these aren't the only considerations for Pool C bids.  But there is good data with which to compare teams/conferences/regions.


http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

[P'bearfan]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

I think one won't make it, otherwise 5 nescac teams at least will be in.

Cards Fan....Hard to imagine 5 teams getting in from a conference with so much parity and without a dominant out of conference record.  4 years ago the NESCAC was arguably a much stronger conference and only 3 teams made the tournament. 

[P'bearfan]

Latest RPI ratings from Knightslappy (I think).
Williams leaps over Wesleyan but Amherst stands pat.
UW River Falls drops a game, moving Middlebury and Babson up to the top of the RPI ratings.
Midd has the highest SoS and RPI in D3 according to these stats. 
And, yes Dave, I know these aren't the only considerations for Pool C bids.  But there is good data with which to compare teams/conferences/regions.


http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/

...then again, based on these rankings I could be flat out wrong...

[Cards Fan]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

I think one won't make it, otherwise 5 nescac teams at least will be in.

Cards Fan....Hard to imagine 5 teams getting in from a conference with so much parity and without a dominant out of conference record.  4 years ago the NESCAC was arguably a much stronger conference and only 3 teams made the tournament.

That's what I'm saying. Either Wes, Williams, or Amherst most likely won't make it.

[nescac1]

I can't say whether 3, 4, or 5 will make it.  But NESCAC this year had about as dominant an out of conference record, collectively, as I can recall. 

[middhoops]

Honestly, I am not a stats nerd.  Everyone here probably is better versed in statistics than I.
Here are the Massey ratings through the end of the regular season.
Dave, this would be a good time for you to join us and explain why the SoS rankings on Massey are so disparate from detroitjockcity.
Middlebury is #39 in SoS on the former and #1 on the latter. 
Granted, one set of stats is a week old and the other brand new, but that won't make up half the distance.
One is reminded of the adage,  "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
(The term was popularized in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli)

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/11620/ratings

[Bucket]

Now that the weekend is over, much has changed. The entire little 3 could potentially miss the tournament.

What're everyone's thoughts on Amherst, Wesleyan, and Williams making the tournament?

Williams might be ok.  Obviously the more wins, the better.  I'm not sure the win today bumps them past Wesleyan, even with the Wes loss.  Amherst has a huge SOS, so they're probably ok.  I suspect they'll all get in, but it's not a sure thing.

I think one won't make it, otherwise 5 nescac teams at least will be in.

Cards Fan....Hard to imagine 5 teams getting in from a conference with so much parity and without a dominant out of conference record.  4 years ago the NESCAC was arguably a much stronger conference and only 3 teams made the tournament.

I don't know . . . the regional rankings, from which the selections are based, are stacked with NESCAC teams in the NE. No one from the Little East is in legit Pool C contention after UMass Dartmouth's bad loss last week. And it's a down year for the NEWMAC, a one-bid conference, unless someone other than Babson wins their tournament. 

Obviously, it's possible that the NE gets ignored after a couple of picks, with one team at the top essentially sealing and blocking the rest of the teams below them, but the top of the NE regional rankings will basically be Babson and 5 NESCAC teams. Maybe only a couple of Pool Cs come out of the NE (Babson if they strangely don't win their tourney and Midd and Tufts if Trin or Williams wins the NESCAC). But if the committee does go deep or even medium into the NE, NESCAC teams (Amherst, Wes, Williams) will be the beneficiary.