MBB: NESCAC

[ContinentalDomer]

Tufts certainly weathered 30+ minutes of a solid effort by Hamilton yesterday.  Unlike their first meeting in Medford, Hamilton did not try to run with Tufts. The Jumbos led 31-29 at the half. That plan kept the Continentals in the game until just under the 10 minute mark, when Tufts' offensive efficiency and depth took over.  Injuries to three Hamilton starters that occurred during the past week plus foul trouble did not help the visitors' cause. Tufts was clearly better, but will need to play even better next weekend if the Jumbos hope to run the table against Williams and, I presume, Middlebury.

[Old Guy]

Tufts certainly weathered 30+ minutes of a solid effort by Hamilton yesterday. . . . Tufts was clearly better, but will need to play even better next weekend if the Jumbos hope to run the table against Williams and, I presume, Middlebury.

I like your presumption, though with me it is a hope and a prayer (like my shots when I was a player). Trinity on a neutral court will be a handful - and you know Cosgrove will have a smart strategic response to the loss at Midd (Ogundeko hardly played in the second half, for reasons unknown). I'm told he only looks crazy - he's a good coach and a good guy.

Two very different styles of play. We blitzed them without Jake Brown, played very well. I'm not sure we can count on that on another night. You know that it's killing Jake Brown not to be in there in his senior year - he's such a gamer, but with a likely NCAA bid in the offing, cool heads will make that decision.

Really interesting match-ups in the semis. Weather permitting I'll be there in Meh-fud (every winter I dislike driving in bad weather more - "mixed precipitation" is a hateful phrase). Otherwise, there'll be a party at my house with the games on the big screen (a simple cable connection - even I can do it) and steamed hot dogs at halftime.

The Continentals' future is bright. Their returning players will approach next year with optimism and confidence they can play with anyone in the league: "Why not us?"

[Old Guy]

One more thing: Tufts has the best video presentation, a couple of cameras & (I recall) instant reply. The announcers, however - kinda unprofessional. But that could be outdated, limited sample. Will we have a pro (Bruce Bosley) like last year?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Honestly, I am not a stats nerd.  Everyone here probably is better versed in statistics than I.
Here are the Massey ratings through the end of the regular season.
Dave, this would be a good time for you to join us and explain why the SoS rankings on Massey are so disparate from detroitjockcity.
Middlebury is #39 in SoS on the former and #1 on the latter. 
Granted, one set of stats is a week old and the other brand new, but that won't make up half the distance.
One is reminded of the adage,  "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
(The term was popularized in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli)

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/11620/ratings

Easy answer... KnightSlappy (detroitjockcity) has the SOS numbers based directly on how the NCAA does the math. I have helped him make sure he has the proper math especially when the NCAA tweaked the SOS a few years ago (and will tweak again ahead of next year). He then takes that SOS and does his own RPI numbers out of that data and orders his regional rankings based on that - versus using any of the other criteria... something he is up front about.

The NCAA's SOS is based on just what is allowed by the criteria. Only Division III opponents and only in-region/division IF a team plays 70% of it's games in region by rule (not usually that difficult, but once in awhile...). And that's where the difference plays in with Massey... Massey takes into account ALL games a Division III team plays including, I think, exhibition games against D1s that take place in-season (I can't remember if he has figured out how to remove those games from the equation). Thus Massey's numbers are influenced by different regions who play more D1 or other non-D3 opponents than others. Massey's numbers are interesting, but I don't find them consistent enough to put my stock in them. I will look at them to make sure I am not missing something, but sometimes its rankings over-inflate or under-inflate teams in weird ways.

Anyway, the NCAA SOS numbers are the only numbers that matter to us in the grand scheme of things. They are the ones the committees are looking at and comparing to the other criteria. KnightSlappy has those numbers pretty darn accurate (some might be off by .001 LOL) and that's what everyone should focus on when it comes to regional rankings, at-large chances, and hosting conversations.

[AO]

Honestly, I am not a stats nerd.  Everyone here probably is better versed in statistics than I.
Here are the Massey ratings through the end of the regular season.
Dave, this would be a good time for you to join us and explain why the SoS rankings on Massey are so disparate from detroitjockcity.
Middlebury is #39 in SoS on the former and #1 on the latter. 
Granted, one set of stats is a week old and the other brand new, but that won't make up half the distance.
One is reminded of the adage,  "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
(The term was popularized in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli)

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/11620/ratings

Massey bothers to check what the score of the game was.  He's always going to be more accurate than a NCAA model which treats a 50 point win as equal to a 1 point win and uses a faulty home/away multiplier which penalizes you for playing bad teams on the road and rewards you for playing them at home.

[ContinentalDomer]

Officiating may play a yooo-ge role when Midd meets Trinity.  The physical, UVA-style defense is sometimes given a bit more slack during tournament play.  I'd say another issue will be the lead ... Trinity is less comfortable coming from behind. If the Bantams remain within striking distance from the start, their defense starts to inflict a mental toll on the opposition, especially in a one-and-done game.  A strong, sustained start for Midd - especially from the arc where Trinity's defensive stats suggest more vulnerability - could Put the Bantams on their heels, as Trinity will get into foul trouble and face its own pressure to score - not their strong suit. 

Tufts certainly weathered 30+ minutes of a solid effort by Hamilton yesterday. . . . Tufts was clearly better, but will need to play even better next weekend if the Jumbos hope to run the table against Williams and, I presume, Middlebury.

I like your presumption, though with me it is a hope and a prayer (like my shots when I was a player). Trinity on a neutral court will be a handful - and you know Cosgrove will have a smart strategic response to the loss at Midd (Ogundeko hardly played in the second half, for reasons unknown). I'm told he only looks crazy - he's a good coach and a good guy.

Two very different styles of play. We blitzed them without Jake Brown, played very well. I'm not sure we can count on that on another night. You know that it's killing Jake Brown not to be in there in his senior year - he's such a gamer, but with a likely NCAA bid in the offing, cool heads will make that decision.

Really interesting match-ups in the semis. Weather permitting I'll be there in Meh-fud (every winter I dislike driving in bad weather more - "mixed precipitation" is a hateful phrase). Otherwise, there'll be a party at my house with the games on the big screen (a simple cable connection - even I can do it) and steamed hot dogs at halftime.

The Continentals' future is bright. Their returning players will approach next year with optimism and confidence they can play with anyone in the league: "Why not us?"

[Middfan]

Any thoughts as to ticket sales for the tournament?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Honestly, I am not a stats nerd.  Everyone here probably is better versed in statistics than I.
Here are the Massey ratings through the end of the regular season.
Dave, this would be a good time for you to join us and explain why the SoS rankings on Massey are so disparate from detroitjockcity.
Middlebury is #39 in SoS on the former and #1 on the latter. 
Granted, one set of stats is a week old and the other brand new, but that won't make up half the distance.
One is reminded of the adage,  "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
(The term was popularized in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli)

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/11620/ratings

Massey bothers to check what the score of the game was.  He's always going to be more accurate than a NCAA model which treats a 50 point win as equal to a 1 point win and uses a faulty home/away multiplier which penalizes you for playing bad teams on the road and rewards you for playing them at home.

Just FYI... there is a reason the committees "dive" into the numbers. I kid no one when I say, "results" versus regionally ranked opponents or common opponents, etc. is a key word. They use that word liberally.

[P'bearfan]

I can't say whether 3, 4, or 5 will make it.  But NESCAC this year had about as dominant an out of conference record, collectively, as I can recall.

Hmmm...perhaps I mis-counted but based on my math I have to disagree with you. 

In the 2013-14 season Amherst, Williams, and Bowdoin combined for a total out of conference record of 36-3 (92.3% win rate).  That's prior to the NESCAC tournament.  This season, Tufts, Mid, and Ahmerst combined for a total OOC record of 34-7 (82.9% win rate) over the same span.

Both are very strong OOC records, but it's hard to call this year dominant - at least not by comparison.  Perhaps the picture changes when you look at the conference from top to bottom but I focused on the top teams.

[Mr. Ypsi]

For the conference as a whole, they were DOMINANT!  Neither Hopefan or anyone else has updated the "Records of Conference ..." thread since 2-2-17 (but VERY few non-con games since then), but NESCAC was at .818, .062 above WIAC, and .171 above any other conference.  The overall conference record is crucial for SoS.  THAT is the only reason some posters are dreaming of 5 or even 6 NESCAC teams in the tourney.  (I'm predicting four.)

[nescac1]

Mr. Ypsi beat me to it.  There is no one really dominant NESCAC team this year.  Midd and Tufts if healthy both look like Final Four contenders.  But neither appears to be at the level of 2014 Amherst and Williams (both of whom I think would likely be the best team in the country in this year of parity in D3 overall).  What is unusual about this NESCAC year is that even the bottom four teams in the league, all of whom really struggled in NESCAC play, posted strong out of league records.  Or look at Williams: the Ephs now stand at 7-7 vs NESCAC opponents but 11-0 vs the rest of the country, including wins over Hope and Eastern Conn, two very strong out of league opponents, and 4-5 other solid ones.  Or look at Wesleyan, who was mediocre in NESCAC play and suffered a round one exit yet convincingly beat top-ten team Marietta.  Even last-place Colby managed to go 8-4 against an (admittedly really soft slate of) non-NESCAC opponents. 

[grabtherim]

I don't know how many teams we get in the dance this year, but my thought is Tufts and Middlebury have been consistent from start to finish and have earned a ticket already.  Certainly a 3rd team would get in either Williams or Trinity only if one of them wins it all this weekend.  Consistent with that, I'm ready for the arrows which are about to come my way, but here goes nothing.  Simply put, I don't think Wesleyan has done nearly enough to justify a spot.  The loss at home last week was the final nail for me on their chances.   Amherst is a bit tougher, but I'm looking at a team which has 7 losses, 3 of their last 4, one win against a ranked team over the past two months, a time which they were stunningly inconsistent, and lost in the 1st round of the conference tournament to their biggest rival (unranked) at home.  Why the heck were they pre-season #1 after graduating players they needed to justify that, only to drop slowly and steadily all season?  Would anyone not named Amherst still be in the Top 25 under similar circumstances?  Quite frankly, I was guilty of the same wishful thinking.   I kept on waiting for them to show something this season, figuring they would.  Consistent with that, I recently predicted we had not seen their best.  I was dead wrong.  It's no crime to have an off year.  It happens to every team.  I have to believe there are more deserving teams who would be kept out if the Jeffs get in.  In my view, Amherst should not make the tournament this year.

[Cards Fan]

I don't know how many teams we get in the dance this year, but my thought is Tufts and Middlebury have been consistent from start to finish and have earned a ticket already.  Certainly a 3rd team would get in either Williams or Trinity only if one of them wins it all this weekend.  Consistent with that, I'm ready for the arrows which are about to come my way, but here goes nothing.  Simply put, I don't think Wesleyan has done nearly enough to justify a spot.  The loss at home last week was the final nail for me on their chances.   Amherst is a bit tougher, but I'm looking at a team which has 7 losses, 3 of their last 4, one win against a ranked team over the past two months, a time which they were stunningly inconsistent, and lost in the 1st round of the conference tournament to their biggest rival (unranked) at home.  Why the heck were they pre-season #1 after graduating players they needed to justify that, only to drop slowly and steadily all season?  Would anyone not named Amherst still be in the Top 25 under similar circumstances?  Quite frankly, I was guilty of the same wishful thinking.   I kept on waiting for them to show something this season, figuring they would.  Consistent with that, I recently predicted we had not seen their best.  I was dead wrong.  It's no crime to have an off year.  It happens to every team.  I have to believe there are more deserving teams who would be kept out if the Jeffs get in.  In my view, Amherst should not make the tournament this year.

In this case, do you see Tufts and Midd as the only ones in the tournament besides the AQ which could very well be one of them? It's possible I guess. I completely agree with Amherst. If Amherst didn't have a track record, they wouldn't be in the top 25. 7 losses and 2 total top 25 wins isn't enough. Yes, they beat #1. They beat Tufts. Those are their big wins.

The 3 teams we are talking about are Amherst, Williams, and Wes. If we look at the results, Wes split with Williams, Williams beat Amherst 2 of 3 times they played, and Wes beat Amherst twice. Is 1-4 against the teams they are competing with really enough to push past them?

Amherst finished 5th in NESCAC records. Williams finished 4th. Wesleyan finished 3rd. We have a top 5 (obviously Tufts and Midd at 1 and 2). I know the responses already. "Strength of schedule. Look at the numbers." But we never look at record or how teams did against eachother.

I think going off past records, maybe Amherst is the best. But we're talking about this year. Amherst has done nothing impressive, Williams has done nothing impressive, Wes has outplayed expectation by a TON, but really hasn't done much more than either of them. Just more than people expected.
If it's  up to me, Williams and Wes get in and Amherst gets squeezed.

[hoya73]

Cards Fan--does it make a difference in your numbers if Amherst beat Williams two out of three?  Because they did.

[Canvas Hightops]

Amherst has wins over Babson and Tufts.  Those are big.
Wesleyan's wins over Marietta and Amherst are big.
Williams' win over Hope was big, not so big now. The Ephs crushed Midd though.
Being 1-2 against Amherst probably doesn't help.
Perhaps what hurts Amherst is their last four games, of which they lost 3.

However, if you read the Pool C page, Dave seems to say that the committee mostly looks at RPI, SoS and vRRO numbers which would discount their late season problems.  Statistically, Amherst still looks really good (#7 overall).
Williams and Wesleyan are 12 & 15 in D3.  That doesn't guarantee anything but must give them consideration if 21 Pool C teams are chosen.

http://detroitjockcity.com/division-iii-mens-basketball-regional-rankings-data/