MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

To me, depth is not really Williams issue: Heskett, Casey, Galvin, and Kempton/Karpowicz form a very solid second unit.  Another than Aronowitz, it's rare for any Williams player to even go for 30 minutes.  What Williams needs, in my view, is to get its shooters going, and in particular, to get a consistent third option to complement Aronowitz and Scadlock, who carried the team in the three NESCAC tourney games (38, 33, 38 combined points). 

The Ephs haven't shot over 40 percent from 3 since their last home game, one month ago vs. Conn.  In several games they have really struggled to make open looks.  When the Ephs aren't hitting from outside, they have to play really tough defense and work really, really hard for conversions inside (either via Aronowitz/Scadlock driving or lots of tiring off-the-ball movement and precision passing) to grind out games.  That can wear them down especially in the back-to-backs they will be playing in the tournament, even with a deep rotation.  When the shots are falling, well, that is when the floor opens up for cutters and Williams becomes nearly unstoppable, as we saw in some of their best offensive performances.   When the Ephs get into trouble it is usually a result of a 4-5 minute scoring drought, usually a product of a bunch of turnovers and missed 3's, that puts too much tax on the defense to compensate. A few guys who are capable of strong three point shooting have struggled just a bit to hit open looks in the last few weeks.  Williams can really go far if they can get into a rhythm shooting from 3.  Williams badly needs at least two out of Teal, Casey, Heskett and Greenman to be major scoring options each game to reach its potential (which I do think this year is at least the Sweet 16).  All of those guys have had great games over the past month, but also very quiet games.  If even one of them joins Aronowitz and Scadlock as a consistent, every-game double-figure scorer, that would be a huge plus.   Teal seems to be the most likely option -- when he gets into a good rhythm from 3, he can be a deadly weapon from deep beyond the arc.  Heskett is the next-most-likely candidate. 

Like some other fans, I'd also like to see Karpowicz get a few more minutes to show what he can do as a post scoring option.  He had a quiet NESCAC tourney but also had very few opportunities.  While some other guys bring different things to the table, the one thing he can clearly do is convert in the post.  No one is a freshman anymore at this point in the season! 

[BigMike33]

Tournament Musings

The ranking numbers used here are Massey Final Computer Rankings....

Selection Information:  Source Hoopsville Interview with Calvin Head Coach-Selection Committee Member

The Committee made a conscious decision to separate Middlebury (3) & Babson (5)--- a potential match-up would be in the Final Four

Committee recognized NESCAC & protected it in Pods due to non conference strength of schedule FOR TEAMS 1-8 and that every NESCAC team 1-8 had excellent non-conference wins.  Great Year for conference, obviously record year by selections as first time a conference has taken 5 teams in men's..happened once before in women's. Bates, Trinity, Hamilton deserve recognition for fine seasons

Cabrini (70) & St. Lawrence (61) were the last 2 teams in Pool C

Wisconsin-Oshgosh (9) (17-10) was selected early in the Pool C process which left Illinois Wesleyan (30) (17-8) at table for entire selection penalized for not making their conference tournament which allowed peers to accumulate more data by playing those games.


Bracket Analysis :  Scored by adding rankings of 16 in pod.  Low score equals tougher bracket.

Whitman Pod: 1025 
Babson Pod:  1141
Wisc. River Falls Pod : 563
Middlebury Pod: 1108

These pods are skewed by Morrisville (213), Rhodes (193), Salem St. (174) Becker (189) and several others in 150-160 range.

The pods have mismatches and Fantastic First Rounders...

Fantastic First Rounders by the Numbers...there are also many other intriguing matchups & roads to Salem.

Claremont M.S. (14) @ Whitworth (8)
NJ City (57) @ Skidmore (67)
St. Lawrence (61) @ St. John Fisher (69)
E. Conn St. (59) @ Salisbury (68)
Oswego St. (49) @ Scranton (48)
Bethel (16) @ Wisc. River Falls (2)
St. Thomas (20) @ Augustana (21)
Wisc. Oshgosh (9) @ Hope (23)

Is it Friday yet??

[BigMike33]

NESCAC & Northeast Matchups

Farmingdale St (159) @ Middlebury (3)
Union (82) vs. Wesleyan (29)
Keene St. (95) vs. Amherst (38)
Salem St. (174) vs. Tufts (32)
Becker (189) @ Williams (24)

Those match-ups scream RESPECT  for NESCAC.....

Northeast

Husson (118) @ Babson (5).....as the Polar Bear announcer...clears his throat " a very good Husson team "
MIT (35) vs. Endicott (75)
Nichols (89) @ Neumann (15)

[Falcons 25]

How about Albertus Magnus College Vs Rochester University? The Northeast is very strong this year! Good luck (skill)
to all teams!

[BigMike33]

nescac 1...very good Williams analysis.

My thoughts watching them play live this past weekend centered squarely around that depth and its' double edge sword.

The number of substitutions by Williams in a game is actually frightening for the main scorers table.  The revolving doors at Macy's Herald Square may be the only place that gets more turns than the Williams' lineup.

Let's analyze from that perspective.

Pro's
Fresh team
Confused opponent..seems like they come in waves
Defensive assignment confusion
Interchangeable parts hard to game plan for - facilitates their drive & kick and back-cut offense...
Superior athlete in Scadlock...

Cons
Continuity - The first 6 minutes of Sunday's second half must have been PAINFUL for an Ephs fan..wow..NONE....which led to issues with items #2 & #3 Offensive Flow & Defensive Flow
Don't feature Scadlock enough when they need a big hoop

Williams can outwill opponents who have not seen them before. I BELIEVE that happened in the first Middlebury game at Williams.

Young coach needs to read tea leaves and cut back on substitutions to get best 6 to 8 continuity once opponent has overcome being shell shocked.  It's like charging the hill every time....sometimes it can be futile because it's a heavy rainstorm and no traction up the hill.

The depth broke Tufts late in the game. The depth was helter-skelter and never gained second half continuity so Middlebury blew them out. Tufts has injuries. Middlebury has Core 8 plus Leighton & DeLorenzo who each have hit big 3s in games. Tough to break Middlebury by depth only. Middlebury plays at fast pace to break their opponents. They believe teams cannot match their offensive efficiency. Also their defense is good enough to get key stops. Second half showed Middlebury strategy & execution superior to Williams.
X Factor = Coach Brown

[toad22]

Big Mike, I gave you a +k on your post, but you are deluded if you think that the reason for Middlebury blowing out Williams in the second half the other day was because Midd was sooo superior in strategy. In execution in that half, sure, but don't overstate your case. I think everybody at Williams would love another shot at Middlebury. I believe this, while still really respecting what Middlebury has done this year.

Your analysis of Williams' strategy is laughable.

[BigMike33]

Critic nation...how many student athletes win conference championships in their chosen sport...not many

That is the goal here..student athlete....team success.  I have argued only contribution to team and winning...zero interest in individual awards...these potential awards spur the relative discussion of who contributes what to their team. Teams have needs. When teammates play for one another, teams are special...the whole becomes greater than the sum of the talents.

In close games, every deflection, a charge taken, a box-out, a time-out to avoid losing possession, an extra pass, being a decoy, a hard screen, a back-door cut, a help block, an instinctive trap, flash into a passing lane, can be the most important play in the game.

Williams locked up St. Amour in first half....Jake Brown showed courage of lion..kept Middlebury in it.  Middlebury's team defense and communication second half was awesome. St. Amour put on an offensive efficiency clinic in 2nd half. 

Saturday, Adissa Majors manhandled Okundeko (3pts.)  Contributing when needed..the game's beauty.

Hamilton needs an athletic scorer. Middlebury needs a big who stretches court with outside shooting.  Both have filled their roles...

So the starting lineup---was St. Amour, Brown, Daly, Majors, & Baines.  4 out 1 in offense....

New starting lineup--- is St. Amour, Brown, Daly, McCord, Tarantino.   4 bigs are now rotated evenly Majors is first off bench.  This change in line-up brought a different set of plays & strategy...this fast paced offense where they push on other teams makes. More post action, more high low post action with big to big passing...

Significant change....

[BigMike33]

Toad 22...no worries. I judge my own karma because my thoughts are pure

See my earlier post..I said Round 3 Williams @ Middlebury.....right to go to Final 4.  I believe we will see it and either team can win.

Williams is a very dangerous team. 

I just think they would have benefited in 2nd half by slowing things down a bit and being more deliberate. I think you knew who had mismatch in game that was Scadlock..post him draw double team and kick for wide open 3s. Shorten bench a bit.

That did not happen..they passed ball around key and drove and kicked back till less than 10 secs were on shot clock which lowered their offensive proficiency significantly. 0 points for 6 plus minutes of second half. Broken by free throw.

Separate team reaction from strategy discussion above.

They are not a drive, screen and kick for 3s, backdoor cut offense???   Are you sure...

[nescac1]

Congrats to Matt St. Amour on being a Jostens finalist. 

[NEhoops]

Clearly a good draw for the NESCAC teams, but you still have to play the games. Its definitely a challenge to prepare for a non-NESCAC opponent at this point, coaches have been watching a lot of NESCAC film and the players are used to the "style of play", but the good teams are able to adjust and win games.                   

[grabtherim]

Clearly a good draw for the NESCAC teams, but you still have to play the games.

No team ever won a game with a keyboard or a crystal ball.  There's a reason why the madness moniker is accurate; anything can happen, and it often does at tournament time.  Good coaches have their teams confident, but walking the fine line to have an edge of nerves too.  In hockey it goes away after the first few hits, and in hoops once your team starts to run, but if things go south, you often see good teams panic when they might not have in the regular season.  I've always felt this time of year is where the practice time and coaching shows through, your top talent really steps up to lead, and finally every once in a while a new guy comes out of no where.  Whole new ballgame.  Get ready for some upsets.  They are sure to be coming...     

[maineman]

It certainly is impressive that NESCAC got 5 bids to the tournament.  A Hypothetical???  Do you think that the conference could have received a sixth bid if Bates had upset Midd (lost by 4) in the first round and either Bates or Trinity advanced to the final, but lost to Williams?  What about another scenario where Williams loses in the final?  Is either a road to 6 bids?

[nescac1]

Had Trinity won the conference tourney, I'm fairly confident that NESCAC would have gotten six teams in -- Keene and Endicott both made it, and Amherst was clearly ahead of both of them in regional / national rankings, whatever criteria you might apply. 

All five NESCAC teams APPEAR to have favorable match-ups in the first round.  But I agree with NEHoops that you can't take anything for granted in the tourney.  A damn good 2011 Williams team, that made it to Salem and could easily have won the whole thing but for Troy Whittington's broken hand suffered in the Elite 8, barely squeaked by Husson in the first round in OT -- and it was no fluke.  Husson was damn good and deserved every bit as much as Williams to win that game.  The team Williams beat in the second round that year?  Becker.

Speaking of Becker, I look at Becker and see a team that has no one over 6'4 and that only plays seven guys.  On paper, Williams should be able to dominate them in the paint -- they are far smaller than most good high school teams.  But games aren't played on paper.  Despite being one of the smallest D3 teams I've ever seen, Becker outrebounds its opponents by three boards per game -- so obviously they play bigger than their heights and know how to succeed vs. bigger teams.  And Becker has something that has given the Ephs trouble all year, and acutally has two of them -- quick, dynamic scoring guards who can shoot it.  Becker's starting backcourt, who play almost every minute, combine to average 35 ppg, including around 6 threes per game on 40 percent three point shooting.  Both shoot well north of 80 percent from the line, so fouling them leads to almost automatic conversions.  The Ephs will have to win the frontcourt battle by a lot to compensate for that sort of perimeter production.  Now, the Ephs SHOULD be able to do so with the waves of big forwards they can throw at a team that has only one real interior player on the roster.  Look for Williams to get Scadlock and Aronowitz going in the post early and often vs. guys they have four inches and 50 pounds on.  And if they get Becker's start in early foul trouble, Becker seems to have no plan B.  But if Becker can manage to keep its top four guys on the floor for most of the game, and make it an up-and-down game like Tufts and Midd recently did in big wins over the Ephs, it seems they can play with Williams. 

And I'm sure the other four first round opponents have similar hopes for success.  Every team in the tourney is here for a reason! 

[BigMike33]

I think it would have been incredibly difficult for committee to take 6 conference teams when 5 had never been selected before.

Trinity winning the NESCAC would have been the miracle of miracles.  Still don't know how Wesleyan lost in Qtrs. Middlebury would have been severely challenged by Wesleyan.  Draw is important. Certainly a factor.  Trinity is such a low efficiency offensive team.  Bates was playing much better than Trinity at the end of the year.

How do you judge ""greatest" year for NESCAC??   Having a national champion or this year having the most teams ever selected by conference and non-conference dominance from 1 through 8 teams.

Interesting because National Champions are never forgotten but we will remember 16-17 as year NESCAC became first conference to get 5 and that will be referenced every time a conference threatens to take 5 or 6 into tourney during future selection shows.

[BigMike33]

Nescac 1

Lots of common ground here for sure although I might not be arguing for Becker.

I would be arguing for Husson vs. Babson.  Husson is an excellent team certainly better than 118. Plus you have some Babson injuries to add some intrigue.

As you point out, Husson has shown well in this tournament in the past.