MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

Old Guy's post raised a thought...I know, this will bring a smile to some posters here...and a question to long time observers of college games.  How much impact/ advantage is "Home Court".  The noise, fans, lighting, size, backboards/ rims, etc.

[middhoops]

Ok amh63, you omitted one of the most consistent gripes from fans of road teams (are you reading this, Vandy74?), officiating.  Do road teams consistently get more fouls called on them?

Here is a study from a few years back.  Its result may be mildly surprising

http://home.kelley.iupui.edu/kyjander/Officiating%20paper%20-%20Final%20draft%20version.pdf

[amh63]

Middhoops...Nice!  Plus K
Yikes...23 pages!  Will put on my night stand with other books....night time reading! 

[Cards Fan]

Old Guy's post raised a thought...I know, this will bring a smile to some posters here...and a question to long time observers of college games.  How much impact/ advantage is "Home Court".  The noise, fans, lighting, size, backboards/ rims, etc.

This. Wesleyan gym gets EXTREMEMLY wild come playoff time and playing Williams or Amherst. The crowd for Williams was extremely quiet the entirety of the game, as there wasn't too much going their way shots-wise. It was almost possible to hear wesleyan fans over the Williams crowd at times, even. The students of Williams were the only fans in the game, as they were in Jordan Bonner and Nathan Krill's ear for the majority of the game. It makes you wonder how much the crowd will be a factor in the rematch.

I would also like to point out that, while I do not know the exact number, wesleyan has won at least 4 out of the last 5 against Williams. Whether that means they are due for a loss or not, remains to be seen.

[FanOfNescac]

Old Guy's post raised a thought...I know, this will bring a smile to some posters here...and a question to long time observers of college games.  How much impact/ advantage is "Home Court".  The noise, fans, lighting, size, backboards/ rims, etc.

This. Wesleyan gym gets EXTREMEMLY wild come playoff time and playing Williams or Amherst. The crowd for Williams was extremely quiet the entirety of the game, as there wasn't too much going their way shots-wise. It was almost possible to hear wesleyan fans over the Williams crowd at times, even. The students of Williams were the only fans in the game, as they were in Jordan Bonner and Nathan Krill's ear for the majority of the game. It makes you wonder how much the crowd will be a factor in the rematch.

I would also like to point out that, while I do not know the exact number, wesleyan has won at least 4 out of the last 5 against Williams. Whether that means they are due for a loss or not, remains to be seen.

Cards Fan .... No idea how the rematch in Middletown will turn out. I would imagine it will be a tight, grinding defensive battle. But there's little doubt at this point that Reilly's system and his players' intensity is a challenging matchup for Williams (and most teams). No reason to think that will change, but as others have noted here, Williams shot 9-33 from three and 12-23 from the foul line and it's statistically likely they will improve on those numbers in most of their games the rest of the way... especially since this is largely the same cast of players who got much better late last season. But no question Wesleyan is a very good team.

[Cards2012]

A few late to the party thoughts from Saturday night's Little 3 game.

1. Williams misses Dan Aronowitz: No duh. What I mean is that they miss his alpha-dog clutchness and reliability. From an outsider's perspective, it seemed that any time things got close late in games, the ball would end up in Aronowitz's hands and good things happened. They lack that guy to "bail them out" of tough situations. Scladlock is VERY good, but it seems there is still some adjusting to him being the #1 option. Almost seemed like Greenman, Casey and Heskett were more likely than Scadlock to fire up shots late in Saturday's game.

2. Jordan Sears may be the NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year: He was on Scadlock like glue for almost the entire game and held Scadlock to 15 points on 5-15 (31%) shooting. Sears finished with 4 blocks and 2 steals, plus 10 rebounds, and just generally made life very challenging for Williams' most dangerous threat. Another solid contender from the Cards: Kevin O'Brien who finished with 2 blocks and 4 steals in the contest.

3. Wesleyan's Freshmen are REALLY good: There's no doubt that replacing Harry Rafferty and JOseph Kuo would be tough, but many of their minutes have been filled by longer, leaner, athletic, defensive-minded freshman. I'm not sure any of them will put up the gaudy numbers necessary to be Rookie of the Year, but Austin Hutcherson, Antone Walker and Jordan James are all damn good NESCAC players already.

4. The NESCAC is WIDE Open: Williams is clearly still good enough to win the league. So is Wesleyan. Amherst has the talent to do it and so does Tufts. Bowdoin has some big wins. I think Midd takes the crown this year (again) - but will be fun to see how it shakes out.

[middhoops]

D3hoops.com weekly ratings came out last night.  The NESCAC is flying high.
With Midd (2), Williams (6), Wesleyan (18), Amherst (21) and Hamilton and Bowdoin getting serious votes, the conference is off to a fast start. 
After a game at home with Plattsburgh tonight, Middlebury play at #16 Skidmore on Friday.  A win there could bolster the SoS of the NESCAC down the line. 
Early season wins help with the resume for the NCAA tourney later on, but as we saw around this time last year, they don't accurately represent how good teams are going to be in a couple months.

Huge props to Hamilton and especially Bowdoin for their early season success.

[grabtherim]

I love watching all the games of our league.  That said, this time of year, one of the toughest things for coaches are trap games after your team gets ranked high.  The kids read it, and then often have too many friends and other experts telling them how great they are.  Realistic expectations then often fly out the window.  At the end of the day, we are dealing with kids, most of whom are facing this for the first time.  That's where experienced coaches come in, but even for them,  it's not easy.  I remember a highly ranked Midd team years back losing to a Colby Sawyer team they should have swamped. in the long run, it was a good lesson for a core of young Panthers. In my mind, what should naturally flow from this is: Don't read too much into and to avoid micro-analyzing these early games, writing in stone what a player or team is or isn't based on a game or even a few games in November and December.  Our regular season is short and intense, and even with that, think of how teams rise and fall from its beginning to end, not to mention getting a run or upset in the playoffs.  Although our season is not as long, in baseball parlance, we are in late April.         

[BigMike33]

Cards' Fan

Nice analysis...

Aronowitz as weakside rebounder. Size does not equal rebounding Eph's fans especially when it's slow plodding size. Did you see the rebounding numbers. Wesleyan destroyed Williams bigs on boards because will and athleticism gets rebounds.  This is going to be an Eph's weakness all year. 3 point misses equal long rebounds that demand athleticism and quickness not necessarily size.

Slow down on Sears as defensive player of year. Sears played excellent defensive game yes, but it was the late weakside double that shut down Scadlock's driving left and made him have to shoot over Sears which was blocked 6 times. If Scadlock would look to pass before the double comes, that game would have had different outcome, 0 blocks for Sears and an Eph's win.

Scadlock is not a closer in games..sorry. He defers due to lack of confidence. Did same last year. He has little confidence in his 3 point shot, shoots most of them in first half when game is not in balance. Front runner, he will keep shooting them only if he makes most. Wesleyan stopped his drive to the left and his baseline drive which left him without offensive moves, so he deferred.

Hutchinson impressed me by getting deep in paint although he did not finish well. Jordan James is young beast. He has highest ceiling.
Wesleyan's weakness is outside shooting.  A run and gun matchup with Middlebury will be difficult for them to keep up because Middlebury has more athletic height in Folger, Tarantino and Majors and shoots higher percentage.

No different than filling out NCAA bracket. It is a matchup game after the talent level is assessed. Teams' that can play multiple styles like Tufts & Middlebury will be on top of league.

These scoring stats against early season cupcakes mean nothing because talent level is so one sided that also applies to benches.
Williams faces someone wirh their talent level, the ole any given night in the NESCAC, and you start to see what other teams want to do strategy wise to defeat them. That strategy targets a perceived weakness.  You weigh the results against perceived weakness to see if it is real weakness. Rinse, wash, repeat, all conference schedule. Injuries, player rotations change things too, the variables.

Middlebury gets their talent test Friday at Skidmore.  Dakpe Yiljep is Skidmore transfer from Division II who is lighting it up early. Pairing him with Top player, Edvinas Rupkus gives Thoroughbreds a dynamic duo with some other nice pieces like Chase Ta who has been hot early. Beautiful Saratoga and 6pm game will have me center court for this one.  Panthers will be challenged for sure

[nescac1]

grabtherim makes a good point (and I've for sure been guilty of what he talks about -- it's a long off-season, starved of feedback, so I think we all tend to over-analyze the early-season games accordingly).  I think the early season games feature particularly random results for NESCAC teams, because of the very short amount of practice time before games start, and then a bunch of games packed in before exams, with very little sustained stretches of practice in between those games.  E.g., some very good Williams teams in past years have looked very iffy in some November / December games (like the notorious Southern Vermont loss in 2014, and that Eph team was loaded).  Amherst has also had some early "bad" losses in years they went on to have dominant seasons.   

In all events, great to see so many NESCAC teams performing so well early in the season.  We should all root for the league to continue to perform well in the aggregate so that once we all start beating each other up in January, it helps all of our SOS ratings.  I'd love to see 4-5 NESCAC teams in the NCAA again this year.  Really, the only team expected to contend for an NCAA spot that has put itself in early peril is Tufts, by picking up three early losses.  The Jumbos are going to be very dangerous in 2018, but the big spate of early-season injuries has definitely taken a toll. 

The Jumbos must be breathing a HUGE sigh of relief after barely avoiding losing to a very down Brandeis team, as well; a loss there would have been murderous for Tufts' Pool C odds.  Tufts fouled Brandeis, with Brandeis up one, with four second left, but Brandeis missed the front end of a one-on-one and Vinny Pace was able to nail a 3 (after a full court pass and a time out to set up the play) as time expired to secure the victory.  Did anyone watch that one??? Losing that game would have been a killer for Tufts, as the Jumbos are clearly struggling missing (I believe) three guys from the front-court rotation - which wasn't a projected strength to being with - right now. 

[grabtherim]

I'm more from the Al McGuire school than the lion share of the over analysis I read here.  Put the kids on the court, and Al would let you know in a few minutes who could do what and which players did what it took to win.  Hell, half the time his game plan was made after watching a few minutes of the 1st half of huge games.  Not trying to say this could work for anyone today, but I do know that labeling kids with who they are and what they will do as though the proclamation comes from some high mountain is in my mind shortsighted and when combined with labeling and worse yet, name calling is unnecessarily mean spirited.  Calling a kid blessed with talent and potential as much as any player we have seen for a while  "a front runner" diminishes the person who said it, not the kid he is referring to.  These are kids, student athletes many of us know and have known for years.  I am proud to be a dad of a kid who represented our league with respect and hard play many moons ago.  In my mind, if you want to single out and ridicule with name calling, buy a ticket for the NBA.  Had someone done this with my boy, we would be having a private conversation which in all likelihood would not have ended well.  None of us here are basketball geniuses, especially those who are self proclaimed.  Simply put, knock off the name calling personal stuff even if you wrongly think it comes from some sort of air of authority.  It may not be beneath you, actually it is.  It's beneath anyone here to do so.             

[BigMike33]

Front runner is a basketball slang term for someone whose volume of shooting is directly proportional to how many shots they make early in game. 

Don't try to make it a personality description because he conducts himself like a fine young man and I don't know him.

The difference between a complimentary scorer and the Number 1 option late in the game is a huge transition.

My point is if he passes out of the double team he helps his team then he becomes single covered and can gain confidence as a late scoring option

Is this a board to analyze basketball Al McGuire, or is it a place to wax poetic about days of old at Marquette or as Billy Packer's partner.

My analysis from early last year was SPOT ON, so your platitudes about early season analysis do not apply to me.

[BigMike33]

Most importantly, basketball players need to be introspective. If I am Scadlock and I do not have confidence shooting the 3, I spend the whole summer and fall shooting 3's. If my left drive is shut down, I pivot right, I pump fake, I PASS... but I don't just shoot into Bonner's hands after one move is stopped SIX TIMES!! At least he learned and did it once in 2nd half, but the result was he shyed away from ball.

Wesleyan scouting job and defensive strategy on Scadlock was outstanding. They probably match up personnel wise best against Scadlock meaning his toughest challenge.

I just expected more after all the talk on the board this fall that he is Top 3 NESCAC POY. 
He still needs to grow into the Number 1 role on his own team first before he can be NESCAC POY.

[BigMike33]

There must be a lot of rose colored Williams glasses out there.

You got Zero Basketball rebuttal because it was EXACTLY what happened and it hits on all your worst fears coming into the season,
that is materializing before your eyes, who is scoring the ball, for Williams this year? Who makes everyone better, like Aronowitz.

Let's change starting lineups and give Casey the minutes he has earned. Greenman & Casey, Heskett, Scadlock, Karpowitz.

Thats the best Williams 5. Scadlock at 3. Lineup nightmare for others, expect late double team kick to Casey for daggers.

[grabtherim]

Front runner = "Basketball slang" my eye.  60 years of watching hoops in gyms from coast to coast and I've never heard it.     Don't backtrack, you insulted a 20 year old kid.  Way to go. I think front runner is right up there with "in the paint" and "off the glass".  To me a sports front runner is a person who only supports sports teams that recently win championships and then claim they liked that team all along.  Can someone please confirm this ever being heard or uttered as a basketball term before?     
Certainly not here:
https://www.sportslingo.com/basketball-lingo-glossary/
or here:
http://www.dummies.com/sports/fantasy-sports/fantasy-basketball/basketball-terms-and-phrases-to-know/
or here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glossary_of_basketball_terms#F
Show me one place or person who ever said that before your manic typing session.  Front runner the way you used it is a put down of a kid who is not yours and doesn't deserve arrows from you. 
Just because people don't answer your drivel here, does not prove you right.  More likely it's consistent with a lifetime of the same from anyone who has had to listen to you pontificating.  My guess is it takes a court order to keep you away once you are on a roll, or typing until your fingers bleed, or you pass out once the medication kicks in.
Last year it was you "anonymously" touting your kid ad nauseum, then lying about it, and now this.  God knows who and what is next. 
I'm done here, and while it pains me to extol anything Williams or Amherst, that is until you insult another kid even the ones who wear purple, and then try to lay it off with some BS. 
On to basketball:  Midd played a heck of a game tonight, showing depth and balance.  Look forward to see if they can continue the trend as the weather gets colder and the competition heats up.  No conclusions yet, but they sure look to have depth at many positions which should serve them well.  Another freshman impressive in his debut.  A very good sign for this season and beyond.