MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Haha, alas, I do not get a vote -- probably for the best .  Although I do think the rankings (at least regarding New England teams, the rest harder to speak to) look very fair right now.  I think Amherst could rise significantly looking at their schedule over the next month, especially if Jake Ross continues to be out for Springfield.  Midd faces a far more difficult road ahead ...

Looking at league stats to date, there are some pretty striking numbers so far.

The five NESCAC teams with one loss or fewer are all averaging 90 ppg or over.  All five are above 47 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3 (although to be fair all have stats inflated by a few blowouts over some really atrocious competition).   One red flag early for Hamilton - despite leading the league in free throw attempts, Hamilton is struggling to make them, at a tad under 60 percent.  That is going to cost the Conts a big game or two if they don't get it up closer to the 67-70 range, especially when they draw so many fouls. 

Bates, Wesleyan, and Trinity are all really struggling on offense right now (Wesleyan has played vs. some very good defensive teams, so perhaps they get more of a pass), all at 73 ppg or below.  All three are struggling to make shots, but especially Bates, which has been putrid from everywhere.  The Bobcats need their ace shooter, Tom Coyne, back in a big way, but he's only one guy ...

On defense, Williams and Amherst lead the league across multiple categories by a wide margin.  The Ephs have been particularly impressive, giving up 59 ppg on 33/25 shooting percentages.  Past Eph teams have not been especially impressive rebounding the ball, but this team right now has a ridiculous rebounding margin of 17.9.  Williams has played a lot of small teams, and that figure will come down a bit, but this is the best-rebounding Eph squad I've seen in the Maker/App era.  The team just has so much size and strength everywhere and every guy goes after the ball hard.  Very different from some more finesse-oriented Eph teams of the recent past.  This team won't put five ace outside shooters on the floor together, or even four, but they will get a lot more second-chance points than in years past. 

[middhoops]

Looking at the Ephs' schedule, it's probable that they'll be undefeated going into LeFrak on January 16th.  That will be a very big game.
Most NESCAC teams don't stack up well against the size and experience of this Williams team.  6-3, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8 and 6-8* with more size and experience on the bench: Yikes.  Add names to those heights like Casey, Scadlock, Heskett* and Karpowicz and you have a team that is built for a deep run this year.
Mountain Man rightly points out that if they have an Achilles Heel, it's probably playing against teams with extraordinary team speed. 
Keene St. played that card brilliantly against Midd last week.
A team like Whitman (WA) who full court presses 100% of the time might disrupt the Ephs in a big game, but no one on their schedule through the NESCAC finals fits the description.
To me, this 2019 Williams team is potentially at least the equal of the 2013 Amherst squad that won it all. 

The good news for the rest of us is that they graduate all but one or two of their (present) impact players.  Amherst and Middlebury will be very tough next year.

*Heskett is taller than 6-8

[amh63]

Nescac1....error on my last post...wanted to hit a smiley face but stupid finger hit the wrong face.  Will correct it...sorry.
Middhoops...agreed with your post wrt the Ephs.  However, I believe both Midd and Amherst both have a chance against the Ephs on a good night....speed and quickness factor and staying out of foul trouble and minimizing TOs.
Good game tonight in NY...two ranked teams.  Say hi to my favorite Plattsburgh poster if you are traveling.  I plan to watch online...yes it will be broadcasted now. .  My schedule is controlled more and more these days by wife, medical checkups and family visits.  Few on site in the stand watching.

[nescac1]

middhoops, while I share your optimism about Williams (if they stay healthy), there are certainly plenty of potential pitfalls before that Lefrak game.  The Moravian tournament in late December during which the Ephs battle Montclair State and Moravian -- two quicker, NCAA-caliber teams, and neutral/road games following a LONG layoff for the Ephs (a situation that they have struggled in at times in the past) -- certainly features two loseable game.  Springfield-if-Jake-Ross-is-healthy is no picnic.  Wesleyan and Union are both games Williams could lose if the opponents get hot and/or Williams fails to bring it.  And weird things can happen in any road NESCAC weekend with a quick turnaround in the second game after loads of travel  (Tufts/Bates).  Toss in the fact that as the number two team in the nation, there is a huge target on Williams' back every night.  I think the Ephs are favored in all of those games, but I put the odds of picking up at least one loss prior to the Amherst game at around 50-50, maybe even slightly more.  Williams is very, very good, but not yet so dominant that a loss to a less talented team is unthinkable. 

On a totally different note, checked in on Nathan Krill at USF -- surprised he has only appeared in one game so far.  I figured he would make a bigger impact, but perhaps there are just too many talented big guys ahead of him there. 

[toad22]

middhoops, while I share your optimism about Williams (if they stay healthy), there are certainly plenty of potential pitfalls before that Lefrak game.  The Moravian tournament in late December during which the Ephs battle Montclair State and Moravian -- two quicker, NCAA-caliber teams, and neutral/road games following a LONG layoff for the Ephs (a situation that they have struggled in at times in the past) -- certainly features two loseable game.  Springfield-if-Jake-Ross-is-healthy is no picnic.  Wesleyan and Union are both games Williams could lose if the opponents get hot and/or Williams fails to bring it.  And weird things can happen in any road NESCAC weekend with a quick turnaround in the second game after loads of travel  (Tufts/Bates).  Toss in the fact that as the number two team in the nation, there is a huge target on Williams' back every night.  I think the Ephs are favored in all of those games, but I put the odds of picking up at least one loss prior to the Amherst game at around 50-50, maybe even slightly more.

The first Amherst game is a month and a half away. A team can go through some many changes (good and bad) in that time that it is hard to even think about it. The Ephs are way ahead of where they have been at this point in the season for at least the last 5-10 years, but they need to get a lot better to successfully battle the tough teams of the postseason. Regarding league play, it is helpful to have six home games and only four away this year, but all of the away games are on overnights to Tufts/Maine. Williams has often had trouble on these trips. Two years ago, the Ephs lost two of the four games on those trips, in a year they went to the final four.

Given the amount of academic pressure that is on the Williams players this week, I am worried about the Union and Springfield games. For me, the rest of the worry filled season will have to wait.

[Colby Hoops]

Regarding league play, it is helpful to have six home games and only four away this year, but all of the away games are on overnights to Tufts/Maine.

On the positive side for the Ephs, those four games are against 4 of the likely bottom 6 (7?) teams in the league. I think if Williams could pick their league schedule this might be it.

On the scheduling note -- Colby has zero games over the holiday break. Haven't seen that before. They finish up this Saturday at Bates and then don't play again until January 4 vs. Tufts to kick off league play. Have other teams done this? I understand not traveling for a tournament, but at least scheduling a non-league game in late December seems sensible to shake off some rust. Doesn't seem ideal, and that first weekend is a huge one for Colby as Tufts/Bates are two potentially winnable games.

[CacFan23]

To me, this 2019 Williams team is potentially at least the equal of the 2013 Amherst squad that won it all. 

Hey all.. Longtime lurker, first time poster here. Here's a question that was sparked by middhoops comment. Is this 2019 Williams team more talented than the 2014 Williams team? It's obviously way too early to tell based on both results in the season and the role players that eventually developed into stars.

Top 5 guys from 2014: Robinson, Mayer, Epley, Rooke-Lee, Wohl
Role players who developed: Greenman, Aronowitz

Top 5 guys from 2019: Scadlock, Heskett, Casey, Karpowicz, Feinberg
Role players with a good chance to develop into stars: Taylor, others?

[nescac1]

Interesting question.  I think the Eph 2014 top five was slightly more talented than the 2019 version, as when all five guys were 100 percent healthy, it was the most loaded-with-talent five man unit I've seen in NESCAC.  Mayer was in my view the best player in the country by season's end, and Duncan Robinson, well, his future path speaks for itself and he was already nasty as a frosh, plus the other three guys were all past or future all-NESCAC players.  Heck, the least-impactful of the five, Rooke-Ley (who was limited by injury much of the year and indeed much of his career), set records related to both three point and free throw shooting later in his career.  As of now, only two guys on the 2019 team have even made all-NESCAC teams, although it would be three had Scadlock not gotten injured last year.  But the 2014 roster wasn't very deep, and had to rely a lot on first-year players who were pushed into action a bit prematurely.  The 2019 roster is significantly deeper, with a combo of solid veteran role players and underclassmen who have barely scratched the surface stashed on the bench.  So overall, I'd call it about a wash. 

When I think of the most talented NESCAC teams I've seen, this 2019 group seems to be right there with all of the Williams and Amherst teams that made it to title games.  Whether this team will have a simlar level of success remains to be seen, because anything can happen in hoops!  And of course some very talented NESCAC squads have fallen short, in some cases fall short, of their goals for various reasons ...

[Old Guy]

To me, this 2019 Williams team is potentially at least the equal of the 2013 Amherst squad that won it all. 

Hey all.. Longtime lurker, first time poster here. Here's a question that was sparked by middhoops comment. Is this 2019 Williams team more talented than the 2014 Williams team? It's obviously way too early to tell based on both results in the season and the role players that eventually developed into stars.

Top 5 guys from 2014: Robinson, Mayer, Epley, Rooke-Lee, Wohl
Role players who developed: Greenman, Aronowitz

Top 5 guys from 2019: Scadlock, Heskett, Casey, Karpowicz, Feinberg
Role players with a good chance to develop into stars: Taylor, others?

Wait! Wrong discussion, lads. Or at least a discussion that is too limited. Any of these teams better than the Middlebury Final Four team in 2011 of Locke, Sharry, Wholly, Thompson, Wolfin, with Jamal Davis and Joey Kizel coming off the bench? That team was 28-2 and was followed by 26-4 and 25-4 teams with a number of same elements. Those Middlebury teams were the equal of any Wms-Amherst clubs from that era, proven in competition, or this. How soon they forget and how narrow their parameters!

In Amherst's Nat'l Championship year, the Jeffs beat the Panthers in that classic three OT ("BOX OUT GUYS!) 104-101epic when Willie Workman tied it with a miraculous three point play to tie after an intentional foul — most exciting, best played basketball game I've ever seen in my long life of watching hoops, at any level! Don't exclude the Panthers from consideration of the greatest teams of the last (or any) decade!

Now, to the present: a real test for this emerging Panther team tonight with 6-0 Plattsburgh team. Hopefully, this tough competition will pay off in January against NESCAC opponents.

[toad22]

Wait! Wrong discussion, lads. Or at least a discussion that is too limited. Any of these teams better than the Middlebury Final Four team in 2011 of Locke, Sharry, Wholly, Thompson, Wolfin, with Jamal Davis and Joey Kizel coming off the bench? That team was 28-2 and was followed by 26-4 and 25-4 teams with a number of same elements. Those Middlebury teams were the equal of any Wms-Amherst clubs from that era, proven in competition, or this. How soon they forget and how narrow their parameters!

In Amherst's Nat'l Championship year, the Jeffs beat the Panthers in that classic three OT ("BOX OUT GUYS!) 104-101epic when Willie Workman tied it with a miraculous three point play to tie after an intentional foul — most exciting, best played basketball game I've ever seen in my long life of watching hoops, at any level! Don't exclude the Panthers from consideration of the greatest teams of the last (or any) decade!

I sure wish Middlebury and Williams had met for the 2011 National Championship. That would have been something!

[Old Guy]

Wait! Wrong discussion, lads. Or at least a discussion that is too limited. Any of these teams better than the Middlebury Final Four team in 2011 of Locke, Sharry, Wholly, Thompson, Wolfin, with Jamal Davis and Joey Kizel coming off the bench? That team was 28-2 and was followed by 26-4 and 25-4 teams with a number of same elements. Those Middlebury teams were the equal of any Wms-Amherst clubs from that era, proven in competition, or this. How soon they forget and how narrow their parameters!

In Amherst's Nat'l Championship year, the Jeffs beat the Panthers in that classic three OT ("BOX OUT GUYS!) 104-101epic when Willie Workman tied it with a miraculous three point play to tie after an intentional foul — most exciting, best played basketball game I've ever seen in my long life of watching hoops, at any level! Don't exclude the Panthers from consideration of the greatest teams of the last (or any) decade!

I sure wish Middlebury and Williams had met for the 2011 National Championship. That would have been something!

[Mountain Man]

Middlebury needs to hit the weight room.  They have been physically dominated now for 2 games.... Lot of issues....

[Old Guy]

Wait! Wrong discussion, lads. Or at least a discussion that is too limited. Any of these teams better than the Middlebury Final Four team in 2011 of Locke, Sharry, Wholly, Thompson, Wolfin, with Jamal Davis and Joey Kizel coming off the bench? That team was 28-2 and was followed by 26-4 and 25-4 teams with a number of same elements. Those Middlebury teams were the equal of any Wms-Amherst clubs from that era, proven in competition, or this. How soon they forget and how narrow their parameters!

In Amherst's Nat'l Championship year, the Jeffs beat the Panthers in that classic three OT ("BOX OUT GUYS!) 104-101epic when Willie Workman tied it with a miraculous three point play to tie after an intentional foul — most exciting, best played basketball game I've ever seen in my long life of watching hoops, at any level! Don't exclude the Panthers from consideration of the greatest teams of the last (or any) decade!

I sure wish Middlebury and Williams had met for the 2011 National Championship. That would have been something!

That would have been so much fun. I was there in VA. Both the Ephs and the Panthers lost in the semis by a bucket.

Tonight's 92-83 loss to Plattsburgh was a good game, 42-41 at the half. Panthers were 13-24 from the line. Ouch. Made a difference. Plattsburgh's worthy. Poor shooting did the Panthers in. Farrell continued his Joey Kizel impression, with 27 points (after 30 against Keene).

Plattsburgh scored 6 points in 2 seconds  when they were one down with about 9:00 left (three point shot, foul on the rebound, inbounds three pointer) — that gave the Cardinals a margin they didn't relinquish). Like the Keene loss, a early season learning experience, I hope, for the Panthers. I'll leave it to the smart boys to dope this one out.

Skidmore next. Hope for some home cookin'. We have not played poorly in these two losses against good teams.

[nescac1]

I guess my rules knowledge is rusty - if there is a foul off ball simultaneous to a made shot it's a change of possession rather than an and-one??

[middhoops]

Plattsburgh hustled and fought for 22 offensive boards according to the official scorers sheet at the game.
When is the last time a team got that many put back opportunities against a top quality opponent?
That level of effort will take the Cardinals a long way.

For Middlebury, Jack Farrell was electric.  He is getting to be more fun to watch by the week.