MBB: NESCAC

[MiddWatcher]

As I mentioned before, I do enjoy reading the posts and comments from all on the site - but will prefer to not appear often myself. I did wish to pick up on Old Guy's thoughts because they were quite cogent and topical. Basketball ( on offense ) has undergone a major metamorphosis in the past 5 years or so and it is quite a different sport. I noted last night's NBA scores had one team under 100 ( 98 ) and everyone is scoring 115+ these days. The Celtics have, what, 8 games in a row over 115, I think ?  That is significant. They are also playing at least 4, if not 5, on the perimeter initially with lots of ball screens, backscreen step outs and tons of threes. So I threw out the topic as a possible one to chat about. I know many of you enjoy that. I did lineups for 25 years as my job, so it is not quite a thrill to mull over lineups as such, but it is still interesting. Vandy 74:  You mentioned the commentary about Eric McCord of Middlebury as to " what is the point". I simply mentioned him as having a nice game vs. Skidmore on the boards; but also that it would probably be a bit unfair to ask that / or expect it / on a nightly basis, and the opponent was weak in that area. The real thing that Middlebury will need going forward ( as Mountain Man alluded to a couple of weeks ago ) is a TOTAL TEAM rebounding emphasis. They struggled at Plattsburgh State ( giving up 26 offensive rebounds in a loss ) and recent memory should recollect that last year's exit from the NESCAC picture included being outrebounded, 60-34, at Amherst, and also at Wesleyan in a NESCAC quarterfinal. So, to expect - or hope - that one guy like McCord can carry a team with his rebounding might be asking too much. Especially for a guy who has hit double figures in rebounds in 13 of 91 college games. In their 13 losses in the past 2+ years, Eric got to double figures in rebounds once. ( 10 vs. Keene State this year ).  So, he is a good player who has probably excelled way past his God given ability to jump in a sport that seems to require a lot of jumping, and I know all at Middlebury commend him for it.  I have also heard he is a wonderful young man who is a great team leader and a superior student. More power to him and congratulations to him for his many successes. Maybe he will continue to get 16 boards a game - that would be great for Midd followers !  I do know this: they are going to need a lot of people contributing to get rebounds if they are going to win a lot of the ones coming up. And those teams will be a lot more formidable  than the Skidmore team who arrived here last week but did not compete to the usual standards of that Program. So, I will look forward to any chat about offensive design in basketball. Go for it!

[P'bearfan]

Noah Osher, from hoops power New Trier (he sat behind two future D1 guards last year, and this year's starting five already has guys committed to Wash U and Harvard), commits to Middlebury:

https://twitter.com/noahosher4/status/1072244360891244547

On another note, Wheaton's Aston Francis, who is arguably the best D3 player in the country, absolutely went off on a very good team last night.  If you get a chance to watch him play or see highlights, do so, he is the prototype of the type of kid D1s miss on because of his size/athleticism combo but who can REALLY play ... he's short and not especially quick, but his shot is incredible (tremendous range and very quick release in tight spaces) and he has a wild array of unorthodox moves, he can get the ball into the hoop from seemingly any angle.  Does not need separation to score over bigger guys.  Really fun player.   

Here is the list of all the ED NESCAC commitments I've see reported here or elsewhere (and I'm sure there must be others).  A number of guys who should be impact players are on this list:

Amherst: F Dan Schleckman and F Beluo Oranye

Bowdoin: G Dylan Lien and G Manav Randhawa

Colby: G Kevin O'Boy

Hamilton: C Patrick Mogan

Middlebury: G/F Jackson Pitcher and G Noah Osher

Tufts: G/F Casey McClaren

Williams: G Cole Prowitt-Smith and F Brandon Arnold

Thanks for posting; hadn't seen this.  I'm certain these are good players.  Hopefully, Bowdoin will be able to land a couple of bigs in this class to complement them.

[Mountain Man]

What do we know thus far about the NESCAC....  I submit... Not Much in a Year of Parity Nationally....

Schedule Toughness to Date Rank & Opponent Win %

Wesleyan      27      .636
Middlebury    30      .630
Williams      159      .520
Hamilton     306      .429
Amherst      407      .342
Each of these teams faces a remaining schedule in a range of 60% to 68% win percentage to date.  Williams toughest at 67.7%

Remember that Amherst & Williams both beat Springfield recently. That was each's best opponent to date.

Hoopsville last night predicted a Wesleyan victory over Plattsburgh State in Miami this coming Wednesday.

Can't wait for January...

[Mountain Man]

Echo the sentiment on McCord. I have heard he is an exceptional young man in all areas.

I believe he is born without a ligament in the knee that he manages. I find him courageous.

His strength is in the paint where he is taller than his defender or the defender lacks athleticism. Eric struggles against athletic front lines where he is forced to jump a second time consecutively on a sequence. This causes his stat lines to fluctuate based on matchup.

Eric leaves everything he has on the court. Hard to not root for someone like him. He is an overachiever for sure.

[Mountain Man]

Agree with the analysis of the Middlebury team rebounding situation.

They are a victim of their style. They like to release one of their three guards and push the ball. Coach Brown's fast tempo pace. The problem is that the 3 point shooting style we see these days forces closeouts on shooters at distance. This leaves a much larger court space for help rebounding especially from the 3.  Dahleh & DeLorenzo need to focus on team rebounding especially defensively.

What is very interesting is that Middlebury is first nationally in defensive rebounds per game & also blocked shots per game.
They are also 6th in FG% defense nationally.  This defense is underrated.

Possibly less early player releases and a little more team rebounding plus half court offense proficiency could round Middlebury into a challenger to Williams & Hamilton.  Williams, despite weak schedule, is leading nation in point scoring defense, rebounding differential as well as Top 5 in scoring offense etc etc....  Hamilton is Top 5 in blocked shots nationally.

Still see Williams as the team to beat ... but the Springfield game showed... they can be beaten. Hamilton a half notch behind Williams.

[D3HforLyfe]

This post was inspired by my favorite basketball media member Zach Lowe's weekly column for ESPN of things that he likes and doesn't like in NBA action. I know we try to stay mostly positive on this blog so I have strayed away from too much negativity in this piece. Lastly, I apologize for any statistical errors. I've chipped away at this over the past two weeks and any stats could be a little outdated. Anyways, I hope you enjoy and happy holidays. GO 'CAC!

8 Things Concerning The 'CAC:

(1)Strahorn's Dedication To Getting 'Em Up

One of the crazier games I've watched in the the first semester was when Colby made the trip to UMaine-Farmington. First off, I have such an ernest and true affection for small, old-school D3 facilities and when you take all of what UMF has going for it into account - one sided bleachers, close walls concrete wall both behind the hoops and team benches, old town fans that have in all likelihood been fighting frigid Maine wintery roads for decades to cheer on their Beavers, real basketball history with people like Steve Clifford calling it home, etc etc etc -- Dearborn Gym fits the bill. The game was set up to be bizzare from the jump when UMF decided to play the entire first half in a 2-3 zone. The Mules have Head Coach Damien Strahorn's permission to launch 3s against man-to-man defensive schemes that are daring them to drive to the paint. Against a 2-3 zone that invites the 3? Forget about it. Sam Jefferson, Matt Hanna, Noah Tyson and anyone else in black were launching from everywhere. Perhaps the most telling description of the commitment to the 3 for the Mules was that when Alex Dorion and Sean Gilmore made the game's first substitution at the 14:57 mark, the only two point field goal attempted by the Mules had been an offensive rebound put back by Noah Tyson off of a missed 3.

While watching the helter skelter long range bombing that was Colby's offensive strategy against UMF, I assumed it must have been more than usual for a team that I knew going into the game lived and died by the 3, but it really wasn't. Their 15-35 accuracy from 3 against UMF was just a smidgeon above their average makes (13.5) and attempts (32.7) per a game on the season. Twice they have already attempted more than 40 per a game. While it is crazy to watch and I share some of Gregg Popovich's grumpy-old-man bitterness about the evolution of the 3 ball within basketball, I also very much respect that Strahorn has made this new-school way of playing the identity of his teams and is sticking to it even through the past two years of losing. It may be easy to forget, but Strahorn didn't always play like this. When the Colby Class of 2016 (Hudnut, Westman, Jann, Wilson, Stewart - a special class destined to be a serious contender but due to injuries and some misfortune ultimately was never able to get over the hump) was around they didn't shoot many at all. In their final three years on campus from 2014 to 2016 they ranked 8th, 6th and 7th in the NESCAC in 3 pointers attempted per a game. If you count this current season, what has their ranking been since the Class of 2016 left Waterville? 1st each season, and, if you were wondering, by a pretty healthy margin.

Regardless of whether you agree with the offensive strategy or not (For the record, despite not liking it, I do...it's math), you have to respect Strahorn's perseverance. The losing has been wholesome the last two years, and it would be easy for a head coach to blink and return to a more conventional style. He hasn't though, and if they can land a couple more of the right players that can shoot 3s like this but also play defense at a high NESCAC level (too bad Jann is gone, he would have been perfect on this team), this ship could be turned around quickly. They are 8-2 going into a good ole' D3 near month winter recess (does Strahorn own a place in Florida? Seems like some Bob Shelton scheduling going on here), and while I am still skeptical of their defensive capabilities with so many small guards and no serious rim protection, I am intrigued how they will do come conference play. With so much shooting and such a high offensive ceiling, I do know that if they can sneak into the NESCAC tournament, I sure as hell wouldn't want to play them in the first round.

Side Note #1: Referenced Pop hating the 3 ball. For those who wanted to see it - https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/11/san-antonio-spurs-gregg-popovich-hates-three-pointers

Side Note #2: Follow-up to my "Bob Shelton scheduling" comment, I really like Shelton. I think he is nothing short of a NESCAC legend. I just always thought it was funny that he would have these month long breaks from the season around winter break when D1, D2, and even some D3s often get less than a week or even a just a day or two off.

(2) The Emergence of Farrell

   I was finally able to watch Middlebury as I saw them play both Keene State and Plattsburgh State - two really good teams each led by All-American talent (Ty Nichols and Jonathan Patron are so fun to watch in incredibly different ways). While some of my reservations still hold true about the Panthers, I do feel more confident that they are in a good place simply due to the jump that Jack Ferrell has made since last year. The competitive nature that made Jack Daly so valuable to the team was what I was worried might be missing in Vermont this year (yes, even more so than his gaudy near triple-double stats). However, Ferrell very quickly proved to me that he has that competitive nature in full. The foundation of everything for him is the "it" that I didn't know he had until watching these two games. Some of his other seemingly natural ability such as his ridiculous end-to-end speed and knack around the hoop are great, but it is his grittiness on defense and continuous efforts that have him as a top 5 player in the NESCAC in my mind up to this point. Sometimes he is out of control and his decision-making will need to continue to improve, but he is a perfect leader for the next three years for Middlebury's trademarked frantic offensive pace.

   My concerns more lie in the rest of the team as we near conference play. Folger has a cut out role that he will fill well as a second offensive fiddle (I think Ferrell's emergence will really help him as he can hunt more catch-and-shoot opportunities off of JF's barrage of attacks), solid rebounder, rim protector, and senior leader, but I am interested what is next. Bosco has obviously been great early on as instant offense off of the bench (15.3 ppg on 48/35/85), but I'm not sure if this will last into conference play. He's taking and making a lot of tough ones right now. A second half of the year scouting report and even a couple more inches of length could really affect his percentages. I like Kornaker's game more, particularly next to the whirlwind that is Ferrell, as he can really pass and seems to be a good floor general with size. I don't know if you can get away against the top of the league playing three guard line-ups with those two and any combination of Bosco, Leighton, or Goldman. DeLorenzo can get hot and has a little more size, but he isn't great on defense and hasn't shown much off of the bounce. I think Dahleh is going to have to be a huge utility guy on the wing for them if they want to be a serious contender. He's proven he can be effective in the past, but I haven't loved how he has looked so far this season on either end of the ball. McCord is good in his role and I really like Sobel as a freshman, but I just don't know if they have it on the wings.
   

(3) Jeff Spellman in transition


This guy is flat out fun in the open court. He just has all of the finishes a smaller guard needs in his "bag". Finishing around the hoop is such a feel thing. You have to know when to challenge guys and when to go around them. When to try to draw a foul or when to ignore the contact and finish. It is a subtle intricacy of the game that is hard to know if you don't play and even harder to learn if you do. Spellman seems like one of those players that has better touch around the hoop with his off hand as he is never afraid to re-navigate in the paint back to his left when needed. He had two lefty finishes in their loss to Maine Maritime (sorry to bring it up Bobcat fans) that I still remember where the degree of difficulty was astronomical and Spellman made it look pedestrian. What really separates Spellman is that while he has the finesse, he also has the ability to long stride it and rise up as well. I haven't seen him have any dunks yet this year, but anyone who saw him in high school knows it is there. In their last game versus Colby, he had a beautiful righty finger roll late that reminded that he is still one of the premier vertical athletes in the league. All in all, along with Zavier Rucker, Spellman is as good as it gets in the 'CAC in transition.

The issue is that there is obviously a lot more to the game than transition (particularly when you are having trouble getting stops like Bates uncharacteristically is this year. Historically a very good defensive team under Furbush, they are currently 9th in the league in points allowed per a game at 75.2). I thought Spellman looked like a bonafide NESCAC star at times last year. While his overall statistics weren't necessarily ALL-NESCAC level by the end of the season, he had games - 38 points on 16-25 from floor versus a not very good University of New England team and 24 points on 8-14 versus a very very good Williams College team being the two biggest outliers - where he reached a level that not too many 'CAC underclassman have reached in the last decade. The 2018-2019 campaign has been a different story. This season he is settling for way too many long twos, being careless with the ball, and, perhaps worst, is looking a bit disinterested at times. I preseason ranked Bates last in the conference, even below Conn, so I'm not too surprised that things are rough in L-A. However, that basement ranking was assuming that Spellman would take another step forward or, at the least, replicate his sophomore campaign. If he doesn't pick his play up, I worry the Bobcats might not only finish last but could end up winning less games than they have this entire century so far.

Side Note #3: Any disgustingly-nerdy D3 basketball fan should watch St. Joe's College of ME this year, perhaps when they play Bowdoin in January. I've always greatly respected Rob Sanicola, and think he is one of the best coaches in New England. St. Joe's, a school that has a deep basketball tradition and has had some fantastic players come through its doors, has struggled to recruit the same caliber player these days (for a number of reasons, I assume). For a decade or so they had a great pipeline of players from upstate New York (where Sanicola is from) who always seemed to blossom into stars. Nowadays, they are usually stocked with less athletic and under-recruited New Englanders, but Sanicola always seems to get more out of them than you would expect. I watched them absolutely carve up Bates with really impressive side-to-side ball movement, back-cuts, and overall crisp motion offense. Fun to watch.

Side Note #4:I know we mostly try to keep it positive on the blog, and, after re-reading this section, I feel like I neglected some silver linings for Bates. First off, the new floor and other renovations (looked like new bleachers, some fan section work, and a reversal of the team benches to how they used to be) at Alumni Gym look awesome! I'm very happy they didn't build a new gym and instead put money into fixing that place up because it is still my favorite place to watch a game in D3 basketball. Second, they hopefully will get Tom Coyne back soon which would help a lot. They lack a serious shooting threat right now, and Coyne is undoubtedly a great shooter. Perhaps even more important though, he's an experienced, vocal leader on a team that seems to be currently missing that. I also like senior Brandon Galloway who seems to be working his way into the rotation as a tough perimeter defender. I don't remember him from the past, but I think the Bates coaching staff would be smart to increase his minutes over some other wing options. Last but certainly not least, I've really been impressed with Andrew Snoddy and definitely think he is in the top 5 freshman discussion. Long, athletic (had a very effortless 2 hands, 2 feet dunk off of an elbow dive early against SJC), and skilled. Not sure what he will develop into when it is all said and done, but he has a really nice foundation. 

(4) Update From My Last Write-Up

Tufts isn't fun anymore ....

Side Note #6: Damn it.

[D3HforLyfe]

(5) Labossiere's Island

   Every year there is at least one player, usually a senior, on one of the bottom teams in the league that I feel bad has to put up with the basketball incompetence that he is surrounded by. The lead candidate for this dubious honor this season is, unsurprisingly, David Labossiere on Connecticut College. The senior is putting together another really solid season (19.3 ppg on 47/40/67, 6.3 RPG, and 1.9 APG) in what has been a marvelous career as a Camel. I would say he is a better overall as a player than either of the other two best Camels of the past decade in Zuri Pavlin or CC legend Matt Vadas, the latter of who could score a little better than Labossiere but wasn't quite as good of a defender, rebounder or passer. This brings me nicely to my next point: "D-Lab" (just made this nickname up, but I kinda like it) has a game that would translate well to any other team in the league right now. I love that he plays hard on both ends and is an impressive athlete whose seems to save his best highlights for the most pivotal moments of the games - a huge dunk and a huge put back in the final minutes versus Worcester State and St. Joseph's (LI) that turned out to be forgettable plays in typical bad Conn College losses. All in all, we shouldn't count "LaBoss" (hold on, I like this nickname way more and will refer to him as this for the rest of the season) out of the ALL-NESCAC race for reasons that are outside of his control. It is a loaded field this year, but if the league rewarded Vadas with a spot in 2013-2014 (also a loaded year) then Labossiere should definitely be in the running. It's the least we can do. After all, you gotta feel for a player of his caliber that will likely never play in a NESCAC Tournament game, much less an NCAA'er.

Side Note #5: A farewell, after a long and weird run in New Londown, to Tom Satran. While it was probably time, I never like to see a coach go particularly in such weird mid-season circumstances. I would love to get the full story of what really happened. Regardless, I actually think he was a pretty good X's and O's coach, and recruited some pretty talented players as well. For whatever reason though, he had a tough time keeping guys there for four years and ultimately was just never able to win enough games. While we all like to point to Glen Miller as a shining example that winning can be done at CC, I do think we all make it sound easier than it is. Whoever the next coach is will face some of the same hurdles as Satran: recruiting against the other NESCACs with perhaps the worst facilities and least prestigious academic reputation (maybe Trinity?) in the league. Even Trinity though has better facilities, a great athletic culture, and is more centrally located. CC is an uphill battle that will have to find a coach that is willing to do things unconventionally because I'm not sure if they will ever win recruiting battles versus the league's top dogs.


(6) A Tale of Two Sophomore Cards

   It goes without saying that this Wesleyan team is very, very different than the teams of the past few years. They aren't as deep, they aren't as dynamic or ball hawking on defense (god, do I miss watching Jordan Sears defend), and they certainly aren't as fast in transition (O'Brien REALLY loved to push, I took it forgranted). However, they do have perhaps the best young player in all of D3, a reigning All-NESCAC 2nd teamer, and an exciting and developing heat-check sophomore backcourt mate to play Robin for the next three seasons. For a second, let's forget about Jordan Bonner and talk the sophomore backcourt that has us Cardinal faithful giddy.
When talking the South i-91 Birds, it unsurprisingly all starts with Austin Hutcherson. Being the reigning 'CAC and Northeast Region ROY, expectations were sky high for him coming into the season and, statistically speaking, it is hard not to say that he has delivered. 17.5 Points (44/41/91!), 5.5 Rebounds, and 3.1 Assists is hard to debate. With that said, as a fan who has watched just about every minute, I have to constantly remind myself how good he is playing. It is so casual, with a steady balance of catch-and-shoot 3s, and free throws. Heck, even his most difficult shots - including his favorite weapon of deep sit behind the ball screen 3s (I love watching the opposing coaches reactions when their guards ignore the scout and continue to go under ball screens when guarding AH)  - are done in such a laid back manner that it is easy to forget how hard of reads those are in real time.
   Walker, on the other hand, is perhaps the Cards most polarizing player. Everything he does is boisterous, and, if you don't watch the games or happen to catch him on a bad night, his shooting and ball control stats (12.8 PPG on 35/32/80 and 1.5 APG to 2.6 TOPG) make you question whether there is another, more efficient, option in Joe Reilly's bench arsenal. But I do watch the games and I do understand why Reilly sticks with him for better than 30 minutes an outing. Yes, he takes a lot of tough shots, but he is absolutely fearless. Yes, the ball sometimes sticks when it gets to him, but even when it does he dances with it in an array of short choppy dribbles and steps that are rhythmic by nature. I'm not sure if anyone in the league is as creative off of the dribble and his right to left big cross is patented at this point. My point is that the numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. Walker needs to be more efficient as the Cards success ultimately relies on it. He has moments and even games where he looks like he could be an ALL-NESCAC guard his junior or senior year. Those moments aren't consistent enough yet, but Reilly is betting on him and I see why.
   This brings me to where the Cards are now: 5-3 with a couple blowout losses, a so-so performance against the best team in the country, a couple nice road wins, and a couple tough games still awaiting them this week in Miami before league play (tomorrow versus 8-1 Penn State-Harrisburg and Wednesday versus Plattsburgh State). So why am I optimistic they are going to work their way into the top four come league play? Because anything more than this start would have been a bonus. It's a completely new team that was asked to smooth out the edges on the fly against the league's toughest early season schedule. Led by a young backcourt that is still feeling itself out along with two vets in Bonner and Bascom who are still figuring out life without their running mate O'Brien (who made everything a helluva lot easier for them), I really do see this team being very dangerous in late January and February. As always, I'm conscious of my bias on this one, but I think a home playoff game is once again in sight.

Side Note #7: Dave Dixon was in street clothes versus Brandeis. Hopefully not a serious injury and hopefully will be back soon. Not sure what Elijah Wilson's timeline is either, but the Cards could really use him back defensively.

[D3HforLyfe]

(7) The 'CAC GOAT
   
   Precursor: Take this section as my way to mix a minimal amount purple school talk without praising their current squads more than is already done on this platform. As I have stated before, there is waaaaayyy too much Cow and Mammoth manure on this god forsaken blog and I refuse to defecate here anymore than some of you routinely indulge. With that said, my only note on the present state of those dynastic, tyrannical programs: Both teams are really really good again. I believe one is the best team in the country and the other, even after a home loss to Babson, is the second best team in the league (...).
   Now that we have gotten that out of the way, let's get back to the main topic. Robinson is absolutely killing it, as most of you know. Most of my feelings concerning his NBA future I wrote back in April so I figured I would revisit a paragraph of that as much of it still holds true in my mind:

As for Duncan's post-Michigan career, while discussion and speculation is fun, I think it is silly for any of us to speak with any sort of real conviction as if we will know what will happen. Unless you are a top-tier NBA talent, so much of what determines one's ability to "stick" is very much situationally based. With that said, let me speculate as well for fun: I believe that he is an NBA talent, and, if things fall the right way, certainly could have a better career than Steve Novak. Bold, yes, but absolutely how I feel. He is a top 1% shooter in the world, 6'8" (which, while not 6'10", is NBA wing size), and has shown the ability to work, improve, and be a professional. Those last three should not be overlooked, and will determine where he goes and how long he lasts.  But to say he has reached his peak as a basketball player is ignoring everything that is going on in the NBA. Guys are playing and improving their games later in their career more so than ever before. Why can't Duncan? He went from being a below average athlete and defender when he arrived in Ann Arbor to becoming a good athlete, and, I believe, an above average college defender. Tom Crean, on a broadcast this year, said Duncan was one of the best team defender's in the Big 10 and, in his final year at Indiana, even had his team watch film on Duncan's help side abilities. More so, I think he has proven that he can match-up effectively against some of the more hybrid, NBA-style bigs. Will he need to continue to improve? Obviously, but, if anything, hasn't he shown an ability to do just that? Duncan is a very old NBA prospect too, but that shouldn't count him out either. Successful NBA players have made much older debuts than 24 and we will only continue to see more as science, research, and technology become better at telling us how to take care of our bodies.  My main point is his work ethic and ability to improve is a skill many NBA teams look at in the highest regard and, coupled it with his character/personality, I think will end up being a huge positive as a prospect. Once again, it could go so many ways. My guess is only as good as any of yours, and, it will certainly take some breaks to go his way for him to stick (as with every player). With what he has already done with battling even worse odds, it seems short-sighted though to suddenly start counting him out of the NBA picture.

I'm glad most of us agree now that his future is bright, but let's not forget that he still has a long way to go to being one of the 450 players that make up the NBA full-time, and an even further way to go to be one of the approximately 300 who have longer than a 5 year career. Any take to the contrary would be considered a hot one in NBA circles as he is still an underdog as a 24 year-old rookie. For those who don't follow the G-League, it is a crazy league still very much in its infancy of creating a good brand of basketball despite having a plethora of skilled, super athletic, and well-known college players in it. It is the second most talented league in the world, but not the second best competitive league in the world as winning isn't the primary focus and intensity often wearies. Duncan's 32 points (10 3's),7 rebounds, and 6 assists isn't as impressive as it sounds, and if you went down to the Middletown, Connecticut YMCA on the right night, you could probably find more inspiring defense than the Agua Caliente Clippers played during that game. With all of that said, I am doubling down on my earlier predictions. The NBA 3 line is the same in the G-League and he is one of the best shooters in the world. I really do believe he will have a long and successful NBA career. I even believe he will make an All-Star game before it is all said and done. He is only scratching the surface of how good he actually is, and this story will only get better.


(8) Actually...Let's Talk Amherst and Williams

   I changed my mind. I think it would be an incomplete write-up without talking about the two best teams in the league (Yup, you didn't misread it the first time). Williams is objectively #1, and while there is no doubt that Hamilton should be ranked way higher than Amherst as of now, I believe Amherst will be a better team at the end of the season. Kena Gilmour is the best player in the conference, but I just like how Amherst has looked more so far (even though it has been tough to tell since both teams have had atrociously weak schedules to date). Grant Robinson is at another level right now. The whole Mammoth team was scary good in the first half against Springfield (which, by the way, could possibly be one of the best 2-6 team in the history of D3 basketball), but when The Pride came storming back in the second stanza it was Robinson who seemed to halt the momentum every time the crowd was beginning to get into it. More impressively, it wasn't with his speed but rather decision making and poise. Three plays in particular stuck in my mind. First it was a beautiful little backdoor pass to Che where he had to hold the dribble until the last possible second to allow Che to occupy the cutting lane. Next was a stare down three from the left wing for which felt like a personal reprimand after he had went 0-4 from 3 against Babson including a couple crucial ones late in the second half when the game was still in the balance. And, finally, the one that felt to me like the nail in the coffin for Ross & Co. was a beautiful pull up off of a mid pick n' roll going left for which I feel fairly confident last year he would have instead taken some outrageously difficult out of control lay-up attempt. In all, it just felt like a veteran savvy, senior-esque performance from the young guard to a secure a much needed bounce back win for Amherst after the dud against Babson (I know they beat Lasell in between the Babson and Springfield games, but the Springfield win seemed like the bounce back performance they needed). With Robinson, Ferrell, and Hutcherson now full-on anchors for three teams that are all well-positioned to be at the top of the NESCAC for the next few years, I'm really excited to watch them duke it out for titles, POYs, and, most importantly, 'CAC eternal glory.

   Before I get too excited about the budding NESCAC sophomore stars (and ill-advisedly begin to cross-era compare them to former NESCAC stars (if we were to go down this slippery slope though, who would each of the three compare well to in NESCAC lore? Are there comparisons for any of them?)), let's rewind to compare the Babson dud to the big Springfield win because I do think there are some crucial takeaways. First off, I thought Hixon messed up the rotation in the Babson loss pretty badly. It was their first real test of the season so he gets some leeway for feeling it out and maybe it was an important step for the long term picture to let guys play there way in and out of the rotation, but I thought he completely derailed their good start to the game with a weird second unit line-up that shifted moment completely to Stephen Brennan's squad. Obviously, it didn't help that Garrett Day had by far his worst outing of the season (a 1-11 stinker that just happens to everyone sometimes. Overall, I actually like Day. He is fun, has a real flair to his game. Probably will cause more than a couple of Hixon's hairs to finally start showing some age over the next three years, but also definitely brings some excitement with DEEP 3s, quick dribbling moves, and unnecessary no-look passes (not to say all of his flash is unnecessary. He had a beautiful no-look lefty underhand fastball against Springfield that was both a good pick n' roll read and also could have broke CJ Bachmann's nose if he wasn't ready).  Against Springfield I thought he mixed his second unit in more naturally alongside his starters which helped.
Another glaring takeaway from the two games was that this team needs to play through Sellew more as he is clearly one of their two best players along with Robinson. Chery and Che are very good and have important roles, but Sellew should be wing option numero uno. In the Babson game he floated around, against Springfield he was assertive. It was a huge difference. This isn't an insult to Chery, who forced a little against Babson, because I think his game is better suited to play off of another elite wing. Chery will still likely take the number one defensive assignment and not having to rely on him as a primary scorer will allow him to roam and do more dirty work which he is really good at anyways. Che, apart from being another very solid defender and rebounder, will be heavily relied upon to hit open shots. I love that he is stepping into catch-and-shoot 3s aggressively early on this season because if he can be a guy who can simply spread the floor along with all of the other good he does, it brings the Mammoths to an even another level. Last but certainly not least, Big Joe has been solid and I think is set to have a very good year. He won't win DPOY because of a in Williamstown we will talk about next, but it shouldn't be overlooked how much stability he brings defensively in the middle. I do think Amherst doesn't need to roll it in to him as often on offense as they currently are and he will need to start rebounding the ball at a higher clip. All in all, I really like their 5 and, while their bench is shaky outside of Day, Allen, and Bachmann, if McCarthy can provide anything once back healthy I think they have a very little bit more than Hamilton.

Now to the Ephs. Before I start a big ruckus, let me reiterate that these guys are REALLY good. They have four phenomenal ALL-NESCAC level players, a great coach, and are deservedly getting a lot of national attention. However, these guys are not the '86 Celtics and I think some are a bit premature comparing them to a few of the best teams of the past decade. The (1) 2012-2013 Workman-Toomey Amherst, (2) 2013-2014 Mayer-Robinson Williams, and (3) 2011-2012 Sharry-Kizel Middlebury teams (player order reflects who I thought was best player on each team, btw) all reached a higher level than I expect this Ephs team to reach.  I've only watched three games (Southern Vermont, Wesleyan, Springfield) compared to some of you who have watched every game so maybe I haven't seen enough. Also, to be fair, the best team I've seen in the past decade, the  2012-2013 Workman-Toomey Amherst team, lost two games back-to-back in the first semester to Springfield and Babson before rattling off 25 straight to win the national championship. I'm sure after the 2nd of those losses that year, sitting at 5-2 in December, there were plenty of doubters as well so maybe I will bite my tongue come March when this Eph team is holding up a trophy in Fort Wayne, Indiana (still weird to say, RIP to the Salem Civic Center).

Let's zoom in and get back to their big four. While James Heskett is this team's most talented player, Bobby Casey is their most valuable. A small part of his value is due to that this team doesn't have a solid back-up point guard who can maintain order when he is out (come back for a sixth year Greenman!), which was very noticeable in the small doses that App didn't have Casey on the floor during the Springfield game. A much larger part of his importance is due to the fact that Bobby Casey is a really friggin' good offensive basketball player. He's a player that every time he is attacking, whether it be in transition or the half court, as an opposing fan you feel like you're screwed. He is fearless in taking (and often making) crazy ones, and this causes the defense to constantly play on their heels.
Casey's game is built on his shooting ability, craftiness, and ability to change speeds. No situation on the court better exemplifies this than when he is in Dribble Hand-Offs (DHOs). He is the best we have in the NESCAC in DHOs in a while for which App is acutely aware of. Casey has mastered the quick juke-shimmy-fake back-cut-set-up (that they must teach during orientation at Williams because everyone since Maker brought the two guard stuff to town has had at least some of it in their game) that gets his defenders just an itsy bit off balance before he quickly scampers into a tight shoulder-to-shoulder DHO with one of his bigs or large wings. Once he has the ball in this situation, it's over. If the defender gets juked bad enough by the fake to the point that he is forced to go under the screen, Casey is stopping behind for a 3. If they are a better athlete and are able to find a way to still fight over, I have seen nobody better in my time following the league than Casey at keeping the defender in prison on his hip. He is so patient - sometimes walking his hopeless defender down all the way to the middle of the paint for a little midrange jumper/floater or a drop off to a rolling or creep-in ready Karpowitz, Kempton, Scadlock etc, etc, etc... It is beautiful, simple offensive basketball and has become Casey's signature move at this point.

As noted, Heskett is this team's most talented player and the 2nd best in the league (might be the NESCACs current most translatable player to professional ball w/ size, shooting, defense and ability to work within an offense where he isn't the number one option. Does he have dual citizenship?!). Scadlock would be my pick for DPOY with his size and ability to guard anyone on that end. Karpowicz is their bailout option on the block and must lead the league in dunks so far this season (also, while only averaging 11.1 ppg which is 27th in the league, he is 6th in the conference in points per 40 with 24.8. I get App wants him fresh every minute he is in there but I am the leader of the 'how does this guy not play at least 20 minutes a game??!!?' bandwagon). Lastly, Henry Feinberg is a really good fifth starter. Good size for the wing, athletic, and a very good shooter, even if his percentages aren't necessarily showing it yet. He's going to make some big plays this season that remind us that he isn't a slouch (reminds me of Killian from those Amherst teams).
I already find myself doubting my earlier take after dissecting all of that talent. They are easily the number one in the league, maybe number 1 in the country, and perhaps I am wrong to not see them as an in-the-making "all-time" NESCAC team. It is easy to get nostalgic and remember only the highest points of those great teams of the past, and I could be forgetting their process. I do know these guys are extremely good for D3 basketball, and I only see a few teams in the league who will be able to challenge them as of now (despite that close call to Springfield the other night). We shall see, a lot can change between December and March.

[nescac1]

Wow, D3HforLyfe, that is a heck of a post!  You should seriously pursue a career in hoops writing, if you are interested ...

A few thoughts in response:

Duncan Robinson -- I recall responding to your prediction of his NBA future skeptically.  Boy was I wrong!  I watched all the shots he hit in that G League game you mention. The first 4-5 were pretty easy for a shooter like him and were not really well defended.  But I gotta say, the shots he hit as the game went on will be there even in almost any NBA game.  I did not know he had that deadly Harden step-back three in his arsenal.  He was working off the ball in creative ways, hitting deeeeeep contested shots, faking guys and then hitting tough threes with a lot of bodies flying around him, and of course that crazy turnaround contested three.  If he can make shots like THOSE consistently, I agree that he will have a long NBA career.  An all-star game seems improbable, but hey, who knows, I was wrong once on him already, and if the NBA keeps valuing the 3 point shot over almost anything else, being one of the best distance shooters in the world will matter a lot.  I do think with their style the Houston Rockets could use him right now -- I could see him feasting off all those open 3's Harden and Paul and the D'Antoni system create, and his D wouldn't be much worse, if at all, than some of the dudes they have been playing.  If they were smart they would try to steal him for a late first round pick. 

CAC GOAT -- I think you've listed the right teams from the recent NESCAC era.  Going back a bit further, the others that I've seen that belong in the discussion are, in chronological order, 1996 Williams (the only one in discussion that didn't make a Final Four, but they were better than the succeeding two Nogelo-led teams both of which did, they just ran into the Rowan buzzsaw - a Rowan team with two high-level D1 transfers neither of whom was the best player on the team.  Williams was dead even at Rowan until the Eph's all-American center - who still put up 30 in that game - had to leave the game for a crucial stretch with a migraine), 2003 Williams (national champs), 2007 Amherst (national champs), and 2010 Williams (as good 1-7 as any NESCAC team I've ever seen, but probably didn't have the depth of some of the other top teams).   I think any of those teams, along with the three you listed, could have beaten any of the others on any given day.  Now, it is absolutely premature to put this Eph squad into the conversation -- they are not now as good as any of those squads were at the end of the season.  I do think this team features a similar level of top-level talent, plenty of quality depth, and a similar upside potential as any of the elite NESCAC teams from the past.  But there are still a lot of kinks to be worked out to get there (as efficient as the offense has been, it still has a lot of room to tighten up in terms of turnovers and missed opportunities, and on D, they can do a better job of making life as difficult as possible for hot deep shooters), and no guarantee - far from it! - that this squad ever does.  They will need good luck with health and significant improvement in certain areas to be where they want to be even this season, let alone in comparison to the greats to NESCAC past.  Of course, 2014 Williams was not remotely the same team in December as it was in March.  For 2013 Amherst, Williamson's emergence late in the year brought them to a whole different level.  And you could go on down the line with a similar story for each team, I would imagine.

Farrell -- Speaking of 2010 Williams, James Wang as a sophomore on that Williams team might be the best comparison for Farrell.  Wang was an all-American as a sophomore and Farrell is obviously not yet that level, but if he can keep improving his shooting he could get there -- that was the asset Wang had that Farrell (while already solid) needs more consistency on.   Both are very strong for their size, very very quick, explosive going to and finishing the rim, but both have the tendency to get a bit out of control going downhill especially early in their careers.  Again, Wang already had a deadly outside shot as a sophomore, but Farrell could actually be better by the time he is a senior considering Wang playing his last year plus with a significant injury.  Hutcherson is a really unusual player.  I can't think of a great comparison to him from eras past.  Robinson, there must be some quick score-first points guards with a similar style ... maybe Sha Brown? ... but no one immediately comes to mind. 

Amherst -- pretty interesting to see two different takes on Amherst from (implicitly) Mountain Man and D3HforLyfe.  Amherst's schedule has been so weak that it does make it tougher to judge, with only two even remotely competitive opponents, and few on the horizon until the Little 3 games.  I do continue to think that, based on the eye test, this Amherst team looks significantly better than the last two and should be an NCAA squad, and beyond that should not have to sweat it out on the bubble, if they stay fairly healthy.  Hixon absolutely needs to figure out his rotation.  I feel like eventually, one of Groff/Bachmann will be getting big minutes, not both, even if Hixon will want to give both seniors some time.  Groff I think has looked good and gives more spacing so maybe fills a bigger need.  On the perimeter, right now five guys are seeing meaningful minutes off the bench and that is at least two too many.  I think ultimately it will be Day and Allen as the primary guys off the bench unless McCarthy can look more like himself by February. Clearly, Hixon loves him and will give him every chance to get back into a healthy groove.  Amherst has a lot of dudes who can finish plays inside and out and the potential for one of the elite defensive units we've seen in NESCAC exists ... a Robinson, Allen, Cherry, Fre and Schneider five-some would not be Amherst's best squad offensively, but damn they could be a scary unit to try to score against, crazy quick and athletic and still pretty long.  The question is who, besides Robinson, makes big-time one-on-one offensive plays when they start facing better opposing defenses who clamp down and don't let them run their stuff?

One other non-NESCAC note.  Aidan Chang, a senior leader for North Central, apparently suffered this weekend an injury of a similar level of seroiusness to those we've seen recently endured by Paul George, Gordon Hayward, and Kevin Ware.  Tough way to end a career and a reminder that fortune plays a huge role in how teams ultimately fare.  Hope he makes a full recovery.  I don't recall seeing many such absolutely gruesome leg injuries in  hoops at ALL before the past five years.  Maybe it's recency bias, maybe just more exposure in the age of YouTube, but I wonder if there is something in how hoops is being played, or the level of athletes playing, that are making these types of cringe-worthy injuries more common? 

[nescac1]

Midd down at the half to a team it should be handily defeating.  I think Midd will be fine in the second half because they are the significantly more talented team, but man, playing far from home the day after finals end is no picnic, and that Panthers team looks like it has, predictably, dead legs. 

[middhoops]

Mountain Man:  Yup.
D3H:  Awesome stuff.  We want more.
nescac1:  OMG, that was ugly.  Did you watch the whole game?

Jack Farrell is worth watching, even in the game right after finals.

I'm left wondering what Middlebury has to do to get all those early season home games that other's seem to find.  Pitt-Bradford is a long bus ride.

[nescac1]

I did watch a good chunk of the game.  As I expected, Midd came out with a lot more fire defensively in the second half.  That plus Farrell's individual brilliance was enough to pull away from, frankly, a very bad team.  I'm sure Coach Brown gave them an earful at halftime.  The team didn't have legs on its shots, as the free throw and three point percentages (and those were mostly open threes) reflect.  Lots of jumpers seemed to be short.  Again, no surprise following a verrrryyyyyy long bus ride through the middle of nowhere immediately after finals week.  Definitely some interesting scheduling there, and not a fun time of year to play back-to-back games.   

[Bucket]

I'm left wondering what Middlebury has to do to get all those early season home games that other's seem to find.  Pitt-Bradford is a long bus ride.

Not be located in rural Vermont.

[ronk]

I did watch a good chunk of the game.  As I expected, Midd came out with a lot more fire defensively in the second half.  That plus Farrell's individual brilliance was enough to pull away from, frankly, a very bad team.  I'm sure Coach Brown gave them an earful at halftime.  The team didn't have legs on its shots, as the free throw and three point percentages (and those were mostly open threes) reflect.  Lots of jumpers seemed to be short.  Again, no surprise following a verrrryyyyyy long bus ride through the middle of nowhere immediately after finals week.  Definitely some interesting scheduling there, and not a fun time of year to play back-to-back games.

Middlebury might have convinced 2 teams(Scranton & Manhattanville) who played each other today to host them instead. That would have saved a few hundred miles of bus travel.

[Mountain Man]

There was no play by play commentary for the Midd game today.  However it was filmed by a female student athlete.

She had one comment at the half... 

"This is the BEST we have played in a long time & I'm not sure but I do not think that they (Midd) are playing well".

4-21 last year and 2-7 after today's loss.  They did shoot 45% from 3 and the field in first half.

I see this trip as an homage to Kornaker (WNY) and a great bonding opportunity over endless wings in Buffalo