MBB: NESCAC

[Conts Fan]

The link below is presented for some fun statistical viewing.  Before Dave McHugh jumps on here to chastise me for posting RPI info, which is not what the NCAA uses to pick teams for the tourney; head ups guys.  These are not the most pertinent stats for THAT purpose.
It appears that the NCSOS (non conference strength of schedule) is very key to determining the final ranking stat.  It clearly punishes Amherst as opposed to Wesleyan and Middlebury.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

What does the status column indicate? For instance, some teams have a number, some a letter, and some "bub".

[Colby Hoops]

Wasn't able to catch any of the Colby-Williams game on Friday, but seemed that Colby's size was finally a big factor as Williams dominated inside.

Watched a good portion of the Colby-Midd game and honestly thought Colby played one of its best games of the season for the first 30 minutes. They just couldn't make a shot from three point land!!! Continually moved the ball and got really good looks and just couldn't make anything.They played solid defense, got some good looks in the paint off of great ball movement and ended up with lots of looks that they normally make. I think the poor shooting eventually got to them and the defense slipped over the last 10 minutes. Credit to Middlebury, they are relentless, talented and very well-coached. McCord was a load to handle down low for the smaller mules, and Farrell is just so good, lightning fast and able to finish from all angles.

The only thing that's for sure heading in to the final weekend is that Conn will miss the league tournament. For Colby, the Bowdoin win over Williams hurt their chances. A win over Wesleyan would be very big for Colby, otherwise they'll need to beat Conn and just hope that things break their way.

[P'bearfan]

Well deserved victory for Bowdoin which simply could not miss from deep all game.  Not the Ephs' best performance, a bit tired-looking out there, but not their worst either.  Jack Simonds looks like an all-American every time he plays Williams and he was simply unstoppable today.  As were all of the Bowdoin outside shooters.  Bowdoin hit more demoralizing late in shot clock shots vs Williams than I've seen all season. Very, very patient all game including on the game winner.  The league race is wide open with four two-loss teams facing each other this weekend. Should be wild.

Congrats to all the Polar Bears and especially the Seniors for bouncing back after a tough loss to Midd to defeat Williams.  Well done!

[Old Guy]

Wasn't able to catch any of the Colby-Williams game on Friday, but seemed that Colby's size was finally a big factor as Williams dominated inside.

Watched a good portion of the Colby-Midd game and honestly thought Colby played one of its best games of the season for the first 30 minutes. They just couldn't make a shot from three point land!!! Continually moved the ball and got really good looks and just couldn't make anything.They played solid defense, got some good looks in the paint off of great ball movement and ended up with lots of looks that they normally make. I think the poor shooting eventually got to them and the defense slipped over the last 10 minutes. Credit to Middlebury, they are relentless, talented and very well-coached. McCord was a load to handle down low for the smaller mules, and Farrell is just so good, lightning fast and able to finish from all angles.

The only thing that's for sure heading in to the final weekend is that Conn will miss the league tournament. For Colby, the Bowdoin win over Williams hurt their chances. A win over Wesleyan would be very big for Colby, otherwise they'll need to beat Conn and just hope that things break their way.

I wouldn't want to play Colby in the tournament. I know there's a lot to be decided, big games to be played, but Colby has shown they can play with anybody, and on a given night . . .

[nescac1]

Ephs need to bounce back from that heartbreaker in a big way next weekend -- of Williams' three losses, two came on the last shot of the game.  Williams did not respond well to the Amherst last-second loss, and hopefully that was a learning experience for the team.  19-3 is still a pretty solid record, but if Casey's shot rolls in and Grad's shot rolls out, that's the difference between one loss and three.  Although the Ephs' didn't play their best defensive game against Bowdoin (and again, credit goes to Bowdoin which moved the ball really well and shot it tremendously, and to Simonds, who had a spectacular individual effort), I continue to think that the Ephs' biggest problem in these close games is the lack of any sort of perimeter scoring off the bench.  Losing Marc Taylor to injury just when he was starting to come on definitely didn't help.  It puts so much pressure on the starting five to put up big numbers night after night, and also puts pressure on the entire lineup to bring the A-game defensively each night (and most nights they have).  Unfortunately, that problem is not one that seems likely to be solved this season, so the starting five will have to up their already-high level just a tad to get over the hump in future close games (and there are sure to be several ahead).  The Ephs' are still very well-positioned to earn at worst a second seed in the NESCAC tourney and likely lock up at least one hosting weekend in the NCAA with a home sweep this weekend.  Of course, beating Amherst and Hamilton will be very difficult, even at home. 

So I think how things work going forward is like this:

Midd, which is definitely the hottest team in NESCAC right now, gets the first seed with a sweep of Amherst or Hamilton
Williams gets the first seed with a sweep and a Middlebury loss
Amherst or Hamilton gets the first seed with a sweep this weekend plus a win in next Tuesday's game. 

I think all four teams will very likely be in the NCAA tournament, although Midd and Amherst would certainly be on the bubble without at least one more regular-season win.  Wesleyan probably needs a sweep this weekend to stay in the Pool C conversation. 

If the top four teams split the four games this weekend, then it gets really crazy, a four and possibly five (if Wesleyan sweeps its two games) team free-for-all likely to be decided by a bunch of tie-breakers. 

[Colby Hoops]

The bottom of the league picture is just as screwy. I likely missed a few, but I think (?) these are most of the correct combinations and possibilities below. I didn't include some of the possible three-way tie combinations where each team has beat one of the others H2H. For example I think there's a Tufts-Bowdoin-Colby one that is very possible -- I believe it would go to the third tiebreaker, comparison of results against top 4 teams, which will depend on how the top of the league finishes.

Trinity -- in with one win (Also in with two losses and one loss each from Bowdoin and Colby)
Tufts -- in with one win. Also in with no win and  any of the following combinations (a Bates loss and two Colby losses) (A Bates loss, a Bowdoin loss and two Colby wins)
Bowdoin -- In with two wins. Also in with one win, a Colby loss and a Tufts win. Potentially in with one win and a Colby loss.
Colby -- In with two wins. Also in with one win and any of the following combinations  (A Bates loss and two Bowdoin losses) (A Bates loss and a Tufts loss)
Bates -- In with a win and one of the following combinations (one Colby loss and two Bowdoin losses) (one Colby loss and two Trinity losses)
Conn-- definitely out

Every team except for Bates and Conn technically control their own destiny.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The link below is presented for some fun statistical viewing.  Before Dave McHugh jumps on here to chastise me for posting RPI info, which is not what the NCAA uses to pick teams for the tourney; heads ups guys.  These are not the most pertinent stats for THAT purpose.
It appears that the NCSOS (non conference strength of schedule) is very key to determining the final ranking stat.  It clearly punishes Amherst as opposed to Wesleyan and Middlebury.

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html

Why would I chastise?

First off, we link to this info on D3hoops. He does a very good job of accurately calculating the SOS number the NCAA has. Thus, his info is very helpful for people curious about the SOS numbers (we calculate the women's numbers because they are easier to do).

His RPI numbers are just there for interest. If you are paying attention to them and ignoring the SOS number next to them ... then we should talk. LOL

The Non-Conference SOS number is not necessarily "very key." It is part of the secondary criteria. It has been for several years, but it hasn't been necessarily used (we don't really know). There are some who feel with the removal of the SOS/WL% "tool" used by committees for years that secondary criteria will be used a bit more. I am not sure if secondary criteria will or won't be used more just because the SOS/WL% tool was removed. I think there are circumstances the Non-Conference SOS and the rest of the secondary criteria considered, but not as many times as others may think.

The non-conf SOS won't help Amherst, no ("punished" is not the right word; no team is punished, it just won't help). If Amherst gets to secondary criteria with any other teams in the rankings or selections, they could have some issues. However, each conversation with different teams and circumstances is going to end up having different criteria results. Again, the non-conf SOS is a secondary criteria item. The committee(s) will have to feel that the primary criteria isn't leave them a resolution and then they will jump into that other stuff.

[middhoops]

Dave, I was trying to say the NCSOS was key to reaching his RPI number.  No reference to the tourney process.

[maineman]

When and where will we get the Regional rankings?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Dave, I was trying to say the NCSOS was key to reaching his RPI number.  No reference to the tourney process.

I don't think the NCSOS is key to getting to his RPI number. I have to ask him, but I believe he is taking the basic RPI math the NCAA has at higher levels and using that. The RPI actually exists in DIII, but because we don't have enough cross-pollination across the country with games and teams it is hard to gave that number be as "accurate" as it is in D1.

When and where will we get the Regional rankings?

They are always released on Wednesdays. The regional committees meet on Tuesdays, talk, and then vote. Then the national committee meets Wednesday mornings to do the same and make any adjustments or votes necessary. The rankings are then released in the afternoons.

All info is through Sunday games as well. Nothing that happens during the week between Sunday and the release is relevant to that week's release.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

What a weekend!

It was one of those sets of days we have seen often in Division III where at every turn there was something to watch, a result to ponder, and upset to breakdown. The hardwoods across the country had games worth watching all with just three weeks left in the regular season.

It started with Dave and Pat's trip to Holland, Michigan to witness the 200th meeting of Calvin and Hope. The game at DeVos Fieldhouse lived up to expectations. From the crowd to the battle on the court, every moment was a thrill ride.

And the Super Weekend didn't stop there. A number of teams in both Top 25s took losses that not only will shake up the polls, but also shakes up conferences races and adds plenty of intrigue for the first Regional Rankings to be released this week. Oh, and a 200-point explosion from a high-powered offense!

On this special, Monday, edition of Hoopsville, Dave and guests have plenty to try and breakdown. Dave will share his reactions from "The Rivalry" and you will hear one of the crazier stories on how a mom names a son. Plus, hear about the Greenville-Fontbonne game which saw 346 points put on the board. And coaches from Hamilton men and East Texas Baptist women along with one of the top players for WashU women give us insight on how their teams are doing.

Ryan Scott also joins Dave as they give their initial reactions to the latest Top 25 polls and more.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. Monday's show can be see LIVE here: http://bit.ly/2UGhZw2 (and simulcast on Facebook Live and Periscope).

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- George Barber, Greenville men's head coach
- Adam Stockwell, No. 8 Hamilton
- Becca Clark-Callender, WashU. women's senior guard
- "What Is In a Name?," Dina Hackert, Hope '91
- Rusty Rainbolt, No. 15 East Texas Baptist women's coach
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com senior writer (Top 25 Double-Take)

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[Pat Coleman]

Almost exclusively Wednesdays. There was one time in the not-so-recent past that they didn't manage to get them posted on Wednesday, and since then I have always used "expected to be released" or "scheduled to be released" on Wednesday.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm watching this Amherst-Wesleyan game.  It appears Wesleyan has an actual child as an assistant coach.  He's short and young and wearing a suit.  Is there a story there?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm watching this Amherst-Wesleyan game.  It appears Wesleyan has an actual child as an assistant coach.  He's short and young and wearing a suit.  Is there a story there?

Speaking of that game.  Man.  Have you ever seen two teams try to give a win away at the end as badly as those two did?  Wow.

[jayhawk]

Amherst escapes with a win 62-61, never seen Grant Robsinson miss so many shots,
Fru Che also did not shoot veriy well
Hopefully they got this out of their system
Eric Sellew with 19 points

Big set of 3 away games coming up