MBB: NESCAC

[With Age Comes Wisdom?]

SO the consensus is that Amherst, Williams, and Hamilton are locks in the "dance"....Tufts probably has to win the tournament....thoughts on Middlebury?

[nescac1]

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[grabtherim]

Hope he's right on Midd, but fear that he may not be. 

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[JEFFFAN]

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

That is quite a report he does!  Wonder if he does one for women's hoops ... have the daughter of a good friend who plays for a bubble team.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Scanning the weekend WSJ journal before going to Disney World to have lunch with my daughter and family.  Caught an article about NET the newest evaluation "tool" being used by the NCAA to select teams for March Madness so to speak.  Had mention the term in an earlier post.
NET ....NCAA Evaluation Tool...is being used this season for Men's basketball.  RPI will still be used for WBB and other sports..for now?  Anyway, it was evaluated during the 2017-2018 season.  Seems it will bring some order to all the other polls around.
Question not answered?  Will NET be used for D3 MBB?   Was it used in the recent NCAA regional rankings/ratings?
Good comments being posted on this board...without the use of analytic tools, I believe

NO... D1 lives in it's own world - thus 68 teams make their tournament. Their access ratio is completely different than 95% of the rest of the NCAA (all divisions).

We are using the same criteria we have been using for quite some time now. RPI doesn't exist in DIII world because there isn't enough cross-pollination or around the country games to make that a reliable number.

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

That is quite a report he does!  Wonder if he does one for women's hoops ... have the daughter of a good friend who plays for a bubble team.

He doesn't do one for women - no one does.

And he does do good work, but remember that he and others (including myself) are still trying to adjust to a new "world" with the committees. They got rid of the SOS to WL% metric/tool by orders from the NCAA (it wasn't part of the criteria, technically, and IMO had gotten a bit heavy-handed and out of control). So, everyone is adjusting mathematical equations and systems that have to work with more thinking than hard numbers.

[ronk]

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

That is quite a report he does!  Wonder if he does one for women's hoops ... have the daughter of a good friend who plays for a bubble team.

Which bubble team? Usually, if you're in the top 2 regional rankings after AQs are eliminated, then you have a good chance for selection.

[JEFFFAN]

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

That is quite a report he does!  Wonder if he does one for women's hoops ... have the daughter of a good friend who plays for a bubble team.

Which bubble team? Usually, if you're in the top 2 regional rankings after AQs are eliminated, then you have a good chance for selection.

Gettysburg women's basketball

[ronk]

This guy who knows what he is doing has Midd as a near-locks.  It would probably take loads of upsets to knock Midd out:

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

That is quite a report he does!  Wonder if he does one for women's hoops ... have the daughter of a good friend who plays for a bubble team.

Which bubble team? Usually, if you're in the top 2 regional rankings after AQs are eliminated, then you have a good chance for selection.

Gettysburg women's basketball

Gettysburg was a shoo-in until recent loss to Dickinson in which they were without top player Emma Dorshimer; she also missed the next game. So, if she comes back unaffected this week for the Centennial playoffs, they're the favorite to win the AQ. Probably in, even with a loss, but they need her to be a factor in the NCAA.

[nescac1]

Thoughts on Williams-Amherst:

A little-discussed key to the Mammoths' recent run of success has been Fru Che.  He usually guards a top-notch offensive player, and with his combination of strength, length, quickness and effort, does a tremendous job of containing elite guys without fouling much.  Very good at pushing guys just one step out of their offensive comfort zone.  He hasn't picked up more than 2 fouls in any of his last EIGHT games, and he's been averaging 33 minutes per game!  That's amazing considering his defensive responsibilities.  The Ephs' James Heskett has really struggled to get going against him in the prior two matchups, and Austin Hutcherson (who I presume he guarded, although I'm not sure?) also had a brutal game in his last outing.  On the other end of the court, he has become one of Amherst's three go-to guys, averaging nearly 20 ppg over his past four, spacing the floor really well. 

Williams can't be just the Bobby Casey show again against the Mammoths, as it was the first two meetings (although of course Williams could really use another big day from him as well).  Heskett looked good against Trinity, and Karp had his biggest game of the season -- both of those guys will be key to Williams' success on Saturday.  Kyle Scadlock will do a lot of the dirty work on both ends of the floor, but the Ephs really need to get Heskett and Karp going early in the game. 

As for Hamilton-Tufts, Hamilton is clearly going in as a big favorite, but Tufts has given notice that they will be a force in the league the next two seasons.  The young Bos' have proven that when they are hot they can score the ball on anyone, but the defense continues to be a problem (and while holding Midd to 76 is impressive, sounds like the Panthers just had one of those days from outside).  Although they came within four on the road last time they played Hamilton, that was Kena Gilmour's worst game of the season (4 points, 2-10 shooting), and Hamilton STILL scored 87 points.  No way Gilmour has another game like that in him vs. Tufts. Hamilton will not take this game lightly after Tufts gave them a scare, and I don't think Tufts has the experience or defensive mindset to hold Hamilton under 90 in this one.  With 100 percent of the playing-roster back next year, plus top-notch recruit Casey McLaren added to the mix, Tufts will however be a team to watch in the future. 

I continue to think that Hamilton, Williams and Amherst have all done enough to get into the NCAA tourney.  Midd sits uncomfortably on the fence but I would still bet they are in thanks to that killer SOS and the big wins over Hamilton and Williams. I think Hamilton and Williams/Amherst winner earn home pods with wins on Saturday. 

The winner of the league tourney (assuming it's not Tufts) has a very good chance of hosting all the way to the Final Four.  In what I assume (for geographic reasons) will be two quarters of the bracket ultimately hosted by teams from the eastern half of the country, the candidates are the NESCAC tourney winner, Swarthmore, Randolph Macon, Christopher Newport and MIT.  It would depend on what happens in the last week of regular season and first weekend of the tourney, very likely that would just sort itself out with a few of the contenders picking up a loss.  But I'd bet that one of Swarthmore/RMC/Christopher Newport ends up as one regional host, and one of MIT or the NESCAC champ (or possibly NESCAC runner-up if both MIT and the champ both lose in rounds 1/2) as the other. 

[jayhawk]

Fru Che has covered Hutcherson in the 3 games against Wesleyan. In those three games Hutcherson has I believed scored 9,10, and 11 points and was 3 for 17 in last game.

Fru Che is a solid person and hopefulliy he can keep playing well

[NEhoops]

I think Middlebury is in good shape, but the following scenarios could hurt their chances, some more likely than others.

- Tufts wins the NESCAC; at large bids would go to AMH/HAM/WIL
- MIT doesn't win the NEWMAC; they would still get an at large bid
- A team outside of Nichols or Gordon wins the CCC; Nichols will get an at large no matter what; if Gordon loses in the final they might get one as well
- A team outside of ECSU or KSC wins the LEC; I think both teams need to get to the final but even that might not be enough for an at large bid; keep in mind KSC beat MID this year 

[nescac1]

Very, very cool: Wesleyan alum and friend of D3hoops Harry Rafferty will be joining his old high school pal Duncan Robinson on the Sioux Falls G-league squad. Great stuff!

https://twitter.com/middlesexmagic/status/1097972963914272768?s=21

[Colby Hoops]

Have been traveling for the past several days, so haven't been able to chime in on the end of Colby's season. Seems like it was a hard fought loss against a very good Hamilton team on Saturday. Very tough to beat that team twice on the road.

Huge kudos to Coach Strahorn and the Mules for a really great season. To even be sniffing the NCAA tournament toward the end of the year was a big step for the program. Strahorn's decision to embrace the three-ball and give every player the freedom to test their limits offensively made a massive difference. Colby played freely, moved the ball well and were a threat to beat anyone with their shooting. Defensively, Colby held it's own given their size limitations.

The future is really bright for Colby as they'll return every player who played meaningful minutes this year. It will be a different feel next year coming in as a more highly regarded team with expectations to finish in the top half of the league. It will be crowded next year as almost every team seems to return most of their production other than Williams and Bowdoin.

Sam Jefferson took a huge step this year, providing consistently elite shooting and scoring. Noah Tyson emerged as the league's best freshman -- a very good shooter and elite rebounder/defender. Matt Hanna and Wallace Tucker are both players with all-league potential as upperclassmen. And Colby has a bevy of other strong contributors all back next year in Alex Dorion, Ronan Schwarz, Sean Gilmore and Ty Williams. Freshman Devin Davis also showed promise in limited minutes, although it will be equally hard to earn playing time next year.

Colby will still be extremely small next year, unless they somehow bring in a good freshman big. But, I've become less worried about their size being an obstacle too big to overcome.

A fun, exciting season is all you can ask for as a fan and that's what the Mules provided!

Now on to what should be a fun final weekend in the league tournament. I'll take Williams over Hamilton in the final.

[WPI89]

Anyone else having issues getting on the d3hoops site?  It had been incredibly slow - now I am getting a message saying that there is a privacy error - someone has hacked the site and is phishing for private info?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Anyone else having issues getting on the d3hoops site?  It had been incredibly slow - now I am getting a message saying that there is a privacy error - someone has hacked the site and is phishing for private info?

I don't know if I'm supposed to say anything or not, but let's just say there's pattern consistent with the performance of many individual school and conference websites as well.