MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Should have known better than to expose my lack of quantitative skills on this board ... in all events I'm pulling these numbers out of thin air to begin with . 

[daoustian]

If you weren't doing actual math, it's a reasonably close back-of-the-envelope guess.  Best of luck to all NESCAC teams the first weekend.  The postseason is always a fun heat-check to see how good the conference really is that year. 

[Gregory Sager]

Should have known better than to expose my lack of quantitative skills on this board ... in all events I'm pulling these numbers out of thin air to begin with .

Here's how Massey sees it, percentagewise, vis-a-vis the NESCAC reps:

Amherst
First round: 97.20
Second round: 77.53
Sectional semis: 54.98
Sectional finals: 29.16
National semis: 14.42
National champions: 6.51

Hamilton
First round: 81.37
Second round: 61.47
Sectional semis: 33.15
Sectional finals: 11.66
National semis: 5.05
National champions: 1.78

Middlebury
First round: 54.45
Second round: 34.66
Sectional semis: 14.73
Sectional finals: 5.85
National semis: 2.14
National champions: 0.70

Williams
First round: 94.26
Second round: 80.07
Sectional semis: 30.00
Sectional finals: 17.90
National semis: 8.90
National champions: 3.67

https://www.masseyratings.com/tourn?t=1068

[nescac1]

Interesting, Greg.  I'm surprised Hamilton is so low to advance out of the second round.  Amherst and Midd, pretty much what I was thinking.  Williams seems high, I'm guessing that Massey doesn't account for how a team has looked recently as opposed to over the course of the season (I could be wrong), and Williams has been struggling to put it all together in recent weeks, hence why I think 80 percent sounds a bit on the high side.  I of course hope that the Ephs show what they are capable of this weekend! 

[Gregory Sager]

Here's how Massey sees the NESCAC reps' first-round games:

Amherst 86, Rosemont 64
Hamilton 74, PSU-Behrend 65
Middlebury 83, Nichols 81
Williams 81, Husson 65

[Gregory Sager]

Williams seems high, I'm guessing that Massey doesn't account for how a team has looked recently as opposed to over the course of the season (I could be wrong), and Williams has been struggling to put it all together in recent weeks, hence why I think 80 percent sounds a bit on the high side.  I of course hope that the Ephs show what they are capable of this weekend!

My understanding is that Ken Massey does indeed weight his program to emphasize recent results. It appears to me that his legendary HAL 9000 considers Plattsburgh State to be a lesser potential threat to the Ephs on Saturday than you do, Jonathan Patron notwithstanding (Ken's HAL 9000 rates Williams as the #18 team in D3 and Plattsburgh State as #58). The big dropoff for the Ephs is when they get to the sectional semis, where they would almost certainly be paired up against Whitman (the Blues being given a nearly 75% chance to make it out of Walla Walla and onto an eastbound flight weekend after next). The Blues are rated as being a 68/32 favorite over the Ephs if they go head-to-head in the Sweet Sixteen.

[NEhoops]

Williams vs. Husson (at Williams) – Husson has played two tourney teams this year (lost to North Central 93-51 and lost to Ramapo 77-75). No real signature win and their schedule was very soft down the stretch. I like the Ephs in this one by double digits on their home court. 

Hamilton vs. Penn State-Behrend (at Hamilton) – lots of wins for Behrend, but they do not play in a very challenging conference. I like the Continentals in a comfortable win here as the home team.
   
Amherst vs. Rosemont (at Rochester) – Rosemont is making their first trip to the NCAA tournament after winning their conference tournament as the #3 seed. Their luck will most likely run out against the Mammoths, who unfortunately don't get to host.

Nichols at Middlebury (at Rowan) – this is going to be one of the better games of the first weekend, particularly if you like fast play and scoring. It's going to come down to the three-point line and at this point I'm going to give the edge to Nichols, but I hope the Panthers can finally get hot and prove me wrong. 

[Colby Hoops]

Williams seems high, I'm guessing that Massey doesn't account for how a team has looked recently as opposed to over the course of the season (I could be wrong), and Williams has been struggling to put it all together in recent weeks, hence why I think 80 percent sounds a bit on the high side.  I of course hope that the Ephs show what they are capable of this weekend!

My understanding is that Ken Massey does indeed weight his program to emphasize recent results. It appears to me that his legendary HAL 9000 considers Plattsburgh State to be a lesser potential threat to the Ephs on Saturday than you do, Jonathan Patron notwithstanding (Ken's HAL 9000 rates Williams as the #18 team in D3 and Plattsburgh State as #58). The big dropoff for the Ephs is when they get to the sectional semis, where they would almost certainly be paired up against Whitman (the Blues being given a nearly 75% chance to make it out of Walla Walla and onto an eastbound flight weekend after next). The Blues are rated as being a 68/32 favorite over the Ephs if they go head-to-head in the Sweet Sixteen.

As I mostly just watch Nescac games, I don't have a great sense of most non-conference teams. I have seen Plattsburgh a few times and I think they'll be a tough test for Williams assuming it happens. At least tougher than Massey's formula indicates.

I also think the Husson game could be semi-interesting for Williams. Husson has a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde feel, but when they play well they're pretty good. Colby narrowly escaped at home in a ridiculously high-scoring game. Given the way the Ephs have been trending I wouldn't be surprised to see a pretty close game.

[amh63]

The weather could impact some travel in the Northeast...as there is wet weather forecast even here in the D.C area.  Some forecast of the weather is almost as tricky as the forecast of the games this weekend.
The Amherst team should be heading West into Cold weather.....daughter lives in the Ithaca area and it has been cold and wet.  They should be off by now....as the WBB teams should be arriving into the Ma. Pioneer Valley soon.  Maybe the first time a Vassar basketball team will play in LeFrak.  There are a number of my Classmates that have wives who attended Vassar.  Amherst has the Seven Sister hills/mountains nearby.
Strange to me is on a Big Basketball weekend that there is also a lacrosse game on Pratt Field and the baseball team should be heading to West Florida for games. 

[thebear]

If Williams [1-5 in their last 6 games] beats Husson, they will likely face Plattsburgh, who gets the lone Pool B team - Gwynedd Mercy in the first round. 

Plattsburgh beat Middlebury, who handled Williams easily in their only meeting in the unbalanced NESCAC schedule.

Plattsburgh is very athletic, has four players that attack the hoop, and could cause long, but less athletically talented Ephs a problem.     

Do hope the NCAA/CBOA, with Williams that close to the NY/MA border will balance the ref crews with some good NY refs [I see several that have done UVM/Albany/Siena games within 150 mile distances from Williamstown]. 

Have been there to see good NY teams taken out of their game NE refs with meaningless ticky tack calls.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If Williams [1-5 in their last 6 games] beats Husson, they will likely face Plattsburgh, who gets the lone Pool B team - Gwynedd Mercy in the first round. 

Plattsburgh beat Middlebury, who handled Williams easily in their only meeting in the unbalanced NESCAC schedule.

Plattsburgh is very athletic, has four players that attack the hoop, and could cause long, but less athletically talented Ephs a problem.     

Do hope the NCAA/CBOA, with Williams that close to the NY/MA border will balance the ref crews with some good NY refs [I see several that have done UVM/Albany/Siena games within 150 mile distances from Williamstown]. 

Have been there to see good NY teams taken out of their game NE refs with meaningless ticky tack calls.

Officials are assigned by the DIII Head of Officiating. He will pick them from a wide area and because he feels, having graded them or watched them himself, that they are worthy of an NCAA Tournament game. They will have very little, if any, familiarity with the teams involved.

[Old Guy]

In order from most-likely to least-likely to advance, how I would handicap it:

Hamilton - playing at home, massive favorite in game one, would be a solid favorite vs. Keene or a big favorite vs. Moravian ... 80 percent chance of advancing
Amherst - two concerns are playing on the road and possibly without Sellew.  Still, a near-lock in opening game, would be a solid favorite even on the road vs. (very likely) Rochester ... 75 percent chance of advancing
Williams - massive favorite in game one, very slight favorite if they play Plattsburgh in game two, but probably a toss-up game on a neutral court ... 55 percent chance of advancing
Middlebury - toughest opening game by far, but still a slight favorite.  At Rowan, would again be a very slight favorite ... 40 percent chance of advancing

Interesting that Midd is seen by NESCAC1 and other smart guys as a slight favorite. Nichols is 25-2 and was ranked #14 in the last D3 Hoops Top 25 poll. They have a 2000 point scorer — actually 2440 points, in 5'11" guard Marcos Echevarria. They own wins over Tufts (6 point win), Wesleyan (by 19) and Trinity (by 17), two of those three teams defeated Middlebury (though those NESCAC wins by Nichols were early in the year - November). Seems to me that the Panthers over the Bisons is a pretty tall order.

[amh63]

Let the games begin!  My wife has changed our normal Friday dinner out...we went out yesterday .  Have my Amherst color attire on.  Wife thinks I behave like a kid on game day.  Appreciate that the Amherst women and men games allow me to watch both without switching.
Best of games/luck to all the Nescac teams...women and men.

[Pat Coleman]

Nothing wrong with behaving like a kid on game day! Hope everyone has an enjoyable first day of March!

[Swish3]

Nothing wrong with behaving like a kid on game day! Hope everyone has an enjoyable first day of March!

Absolutely...I've been asking my family if they're ready for the Albertus Magnus experience?  I'm not even sure what that means...just being silly and having a little fun w/the unusual name...no disrespect intended, of course.