MBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

It's raining here in Md. and the temp will be up in the 60's this evening....maybe Spring is here finally?  Went to the Amherst website and see it is snowing on the campus.  Saw pictures of the women's tennis team...won first match...in Florida....joining the softball and baseball teams.
The basketball season for the Nescac teams has ended.  The Bowdoin's WBB team will be in Salem.  Will congrat them here.  My attention will now turn to D1 teams in basketball for awhile....UConn women's....but what Men's team?
Maybe the Un. of Vermont...presently tops in their conf and the school where a frequent poster here played.  Saw MSU beat the higher ranked Un of Mich. last night to win the regular second title in their conference...formally known as the Big Ten.  Maybe follow them...the Spartans, I believe.  Had a happy moment with a MSU alum in Salem Va.  Believe it was the Time of the First Amherst MBB National Title.  The MSU alum had a son on the Amherst team.  He ran a business in Ann Arbor!! The man was on the playing floor with me and was looking around to see which hanging NCAA banner to take down for a souvenir .  Yelp...will follow the Spartans in the March Madness to come.

[Gregory Sager]

So glad we use Massey to determine what are upsets and such.

I could've quoted Matt Snyder, but he had the same thing.

[nescac1]

Gwynedd pregame speech vs Williams getting some love:

https://twitter.com/bleacherreport/status/1104479135395692545?s=21

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

So glad we use Massey to determine what are upsets and such.

I could've quoted Matt Snyder, but he had the same thing.

Wow. I am stunned.

I know you guys do, but has Massey really been on it's game this year? I mentioned this several times a few weeks ago and the response was nothing but silence ... there where weeks I would check things out on Massey and find a lot of the data a week or more old.

But my main point ... how much do computer algorithms really tell us how student-athletes are going to play the game?

[Colby Hoops]

All region teams announced. All five guys from the Nescac first team make one of the four rosters. Congrats to them: https://d3hoops.com/awards/all-region/2018-19/northeast-men

[nescac1]

Thanks to the poster who reminded me that Williams has now lost twice, not once, in Elite 8 games (the other was to St. Thomas).  Still, 8-2 in that round is pretty darn solid. 

Congrats to the six NESCAC all-region honorees. 

The Eph senior class will go down as one of the best in team, and league, history.  Collectively, they made it during the past three years to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the NCAA second round, winning a NESCAC title, finishing second, and making the NESCAC semis in that stretch. 

Individually, Bobby Casey finishes sixth on the all-time Eph scoring list with 1516 points (one of only six Ephs to crack 1500 points for his career) and set the Williams record for career three-pointers made, which is really amazing when you consider some of the shooters who have made their way through Chandler.  He made two first-team all-NESCAC teams and two all-regional teams. 

James Heskett was NESCAC player of the year, second-team all NESCAC, and a two-time all-regional player (including first-team as a Junior).  He finished with 1372 career points, 15th all-time at Williams. 

Kyle Scadlock may be the most talented player never to make an all-NESCAC team.  He was a great two-way player and leader for the Ephs whose career was hampered by two serious knee injuries that cost him his senior year of high school, most of his junior year of college (when he was certainly headed for first-team all league honors), and clearly hampered him some his senior year.  Despite that, he still finished with 1229 career points (21st all time at Williams) and 645 career rebounds, 8th all time at Williams.  But for his injury he would have surely been one of the top five all-time scorers and top three all-time rebounders, maybe higher. 

Big men Marcos Soto, Michael Kempton and Jake Porath did not earn any individual accolades, but all were big contributors to the program and consummate team players.  Soto and Kempton both started and came off the bench during their career, and despite huge fluctuations in their roles and in Soto's case position, always made positive contributions, especially on the defensive end.  Porath was stuck behind a lot of really good centers but was an energy guy who came in and gave solid minutes whenever he was called for.  He would have been a bigger contributor almost anywhere else. 

That group will really be impossible to replace.  The Ephs next year are going to have a very, very different look.  They won't be nearly as big, skilled, or experienced, nor as accomplished defensively.  But the emergence of some young bench guys later in the season do give some reason for optimism, even as the team will start the year as no one's pick for a top-three spot in the league. 

The Ephs will field a very athletic and reasonably quick squad with a projected lineup of Karpowicz, Feinberg, Jones, Spivy and Babek, with Taylor working his way back from injury (he could be a starter if 100 percent to begin the season but I'm not sure how likely that is) and incoming frosh Prowitt-Smith likely the top guard off the bench.  It will be a more traditional look for the team, with a center, two normal-sized wings, and two true guards.  A few other guys who rarely left the bench this year will also get a chance to play.  Other than the three rising seniors who were big parts of this year's rotation, who will need to be big-time leaders and players, that is all guys who are mostly untested.  Spivy with his shooting touch and feel looks like he could be a big-time scorer next year, especially if he can get a bit stronger and learn some of those Bobby Casey crafty mid-range finishes off the dribble.  Jovan Jones is surely going to be an elite defender and really good rebounder, and if he improves his shooting consistency and ball-handling has the potential to be a strong contributor on offense as well as early as next season.  There is ample talent for the Ephs to still have a bright future if the young players develop rapidly over the off-season.  While the team is unlikely to be a D3 heavyweight again next season, it will be really fun to see a new cast of characters emerge and try to fill new roles next season. 

[jumpshot]

Well said, Nescac1, as usual, and I agree. There is a lot of upside and potential for growth next season. Will be largely determined by off-season hard work, and chemistry and character next season. Defense, protecting the rim, and ball handling key areas. Perhaps tailoring of sets (league has seen Maker/App techniques for several years now) and style to align well with "fresh group" will be important. Game continues to change. I personally favor a blend of traditional NESCAC three-point shooting, and the "city game" of getting to the rim, relentless "straight-up"rebounding from the playgrounds, while spreading the court so as to get in the lane and making close-outs a challenge.

Thanks to all this year's players for an incredible team effort and representing Williams with class!

[Gregory Sager]

So glad we use Massey to determine what are upsets and such.

I could've quoted Matt Snyder, but he had the same thing.

Wow. I am stunned.

I know you guys do, but has Massey really been on it's game this year? I mentioned this several times a few weeks ago and the response was nothing but silence ... there where weeks I would check things out on Massey and find a lot of the data a week or more old.

But my main point ... how much do computer algorithms really tell us how student-athletes are going to play the game?

Not enough to make me want to put money down on a game if Vegas ever handles D3 men's basketball. But how much does anything else, including polls, really tell us how student-athletes are going to play the game?

You're right that Massey has been slack about updating data this season. But the data had been updated when I mentioned Massey with regard to Amherst being favored over Nichols. If it hadn't, I wouldn't have mentioned Massey at all.

As a d3hoops.com balloteer, you're as well aware as I am that forecasting D3 tourney outcomes was often problematic in the past due to D3's lack of interregional play. One would think that that would've been ameliorated by the webstreaming revolution in D3 sports over the past decade, since it gives everybody the opportunity to regularly eyeball teams from Maine to California. But in fact it's even more difficult now to make an accurate prediction, because parity has become so prevalent in D3 men's basketball. I read your blog every week and listen to you and Ryan on Hoopsville, and it's always stuff about blowing up ballots, getting this team wrong or that team wrong, and just a whole lot of second-guessing in general. I'm not saying that to denigrate the poll or the analysis that you two provide; far from it. I respect the amount of work that goes into being a conscientious d3hoops.com balloteer. And I don't envy you and Ryan in the slightest for what is obviously an increasingly difficult weekly task.

But the gyroscope's been swinging wildly in this tournament, with three of the four prohibitive favorites (according to the poll, the NCAA criteria, and the general d3boards.com consensus) bounced even before the sectional finals. And that's on the heels of last season's tourney, which had a Final Four that consisted of the #24 team, a team that was in the Others Receiving Votes category, and two others that had been overlooked entirely by the balloteers in the pre-tournament poll. So I'm a little wary of citing the poll in terms of favorites and underdogs, even when the teams are not necessarily closely ranked (i.e., #7 Amherst and #14 Nichols). Heck, even in cases in which I would cite the d3boards.com Top 25, we've seen considerable carnage this March. Thus far, #13 St. Thomas has soundly whipped #1 Nebraska Wesleyan, only for the Tommies to fall in their next game to unranked Guilford. And #19 Williams dominated #2 Whitman for 35 minutes before withstanding a late comeback attempt by the Blues to prevail. Despite playing on its home floor, #3 Augustana lost in thorough fashion to an unranked Wheaton team it had beaten twice already this season. The #8 Johnnies of St. John's lost by 15 on their home floor to a Northwestern team that hadn't even received a single vote in the pre-tournament poll. And so on.

So, all things considered, I feel just as comfortable going with an established computer algorithm (provided that it's updated properly) that has a comprehensive 28-to-30-game database per team as anything else when it comes to citing favorites and underdogs.

[ContinentalDomer]

As to the Williams-Whitman game, the notion about the gyroscope swinging wildly is not, in my opinion, as relevant to that match-up.  In other words, the rankings didn't tell the whole story.  Down the stretch, Williams lost six games.  But a number of those games were likely impacted by Heskett's health (the Bowdoin loss is not easily explained).  Moreover, the three Ls to Amherst were against a legitimate Top 10 team that provided a difficult match-up for Williams (size and athleticism). 

I tend to think that Williams ended the year as the same team that spent a significant portion of the season in the Top 10/Top 5.  The win against Whitman, which I watched live, was not a surprise from my perspective.  Whitman is a great team and plays the way it plays (press), but for much of the game, the Blues' press and half court defensive style were more akin to suicide missions.  As to the press, Williams' height allowed the Ephs to constantly pass over the top for easy buckets.  In the half court sets, Williams killed Whitman with backdoor cuts as the Blues overplayed the passing lanes and left the paint wide open.  Of course, Williams also made open shots from outside.  In the end, I thought the clash of styles there favored Williams. 

So glad we use Massey to determine what are upsets and such.

I could've quoted Matt Snyder, but he had the same thing.

Wow. I am stunned.

I know you guys do, but has Massey really been on it's game this year? I mentioned this several times a few weeks ago and the response was nothing but silence ... there where weeks I would check things out on Massey and find a lot of the data a week or more old.

But my main point ... how much do computer algorithms really tell us how student-athletes are going to play the game?

Not enough to make me want to put money down on a game if Vegas ever handles D3 men's basketball. But how much does anything else, including polls, really tell us how student-athletes are going to play the game?

You're right that Massey has been slack about updating data this season. But the data had been updated when I mentioned Massey with regard to Amherst being favored over Nichols. If it hadn't, I wouldn't have mentioned Massey at all.

As a d3hoops.com balloteer, you're as well aware as I am that forecasting D3 tourney outcomes was often problematic in the past due to D3's lack of interregional play. One would think that that would've been ameliorated by the webstreaming revolution in D3 sports over the past decade, since it gives everybody the opportunity to regularly eyeball teams from Maine to California. But in fact it's even more difficult now to make an accurate prediction, because parity has become so prevalent in D3 men's basketball. I read your blog every week and listen to you and Ryan on Hoopsville, and it's always stuff about blowing up ballots, getting this team wrong or that team wrong, and just a whole lot of second-guessing in general. I'm not saying that to denigrate the poll or the analysis that you two provide; far from it. I respect the amount of work that goes into being a conscientious d3hoops.com balloteer. And I don't envy you and Ryan in the slightest for what is obviously an increasingly difficult weekly task.

But the gyroscope's been swinging wildly in this tournament, with three of the four prohibitive favorites (according to the poll, the NCAA criteria, and the general d3boards.com consensus) bounced even before the sectional finals. And that's on the heels of last season's tourney, which had a Final Four that consisted of the #24 team, a team that was in the Others Receiving Votes category, and two others that had been overlooked entirely by the balloteers in the pre-tournament poll. So I'm a little wary of citing the poll in terms of favorites and underdogs, even when the teams are not necessarily closely ranked (i.e., #7 Amherst and #14 Nichols). Heck, even in cases in which I would cite the d3boards.com Top 25, we've seen considerable carnage this March. Thus far, #13 St. Thomas has soundly whipped #1 Nebraska Wesleyan, only for the Tommies to fall in their next game to unranked Guilford. And #19 Williams dominated #2 Whitman for 35 minutes before withstanding a late comeback attempt by the Blues to prevail. Despite playing on its home floor, #3 Augustana lost in thorough fashion to an unranked Wheaton team it had beaten twice already this season. The #8 Johnnies of St. John's lost by 15 on their home floor to a Northwestern team that hadn't even received a single vote in the pre-tournament poll. And so on.

So, all things considered, I feel just as comfortable going with an established computer algorithm (provided that it's updated properly) that has a comprehensive 28-to-30-game database per team as anything else when it comes to citing favorites and underdogs.

[Pat Coleman]

Rankings and a ranking committee are never going to be able to account for individual human-on-human matchups and matchups of style. We can only give a measurement of how a team has performed related to the schedule it has played in conjunction with other teams doing the same.

[jumpshot]

ContinentalDomer:

Clearly the Williams' defeat Whitman is an epic win that was expected by few before the game, more for the high scoring and margin of victory over the season by Whitman than rankings. Your comment suggests you anticipated it, yet the win came about perhaps for different reasons than on which you focus, even seeing the game in person.

A primary root cause of the win was the Ephs' defense (contributing to poor Whitman shooting) holding Whitman to 10 of 30 threes, and only 30 total baskets in 77 attempts.

Yes, the Ephs were efficient in making 29 of 43 shots (67%) on 22 assists, ironically due in part due to the excellent preparation by the Eph players and coaches for breaking the Whitman press and influencing the pace of the game in spite of committing 29 turnovers and giving up 18 offensive rebounds.

Check out the post game interview for the Whitman coach's interpretation.

[frank uible]

Do the fans here appreciate how difficult it is for a coach to change virtually overnight the fundamental approach of his team and cause them to have the discipline to stick with it? - ala App and his good kids for the Whitman game.

[jumpshot]

Frank, good point. If anyone doesn't appreciate the difficulty, consider the convincing evidence of Whitman's record of 112 wins and only 10 losses in the past four years. Great job by "... App and his good kids for the Whitman game."

[UWPSUPERFAN77]

I saw most of the Saturday game at Amherst. Great crowd and atmosphere considering the home team was eliminated! You guys did a great job as hosts! Also,I enjoyed watching a game from your historical facility. God Bless Amherst!

[UWPSUPERFAN77]

On Whitman: They really deserve a sectional game on their court. last year they lost at Platteville to Nebraska Wesylian on the road. I know the NCAA is cheap,but they face an unfair uphill battle!