MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

NEhoops, this year is going to be tough ... want to see the preseason rosters first, especially after last year's several unexpected absences.  I do think, barring a major surprise in personnel, there will be four groups ...

Amherst/Midd ... legit, nationally-relevant teams
Williams/Tufts/Colby/Trinity/Hamilton ... high-quality teams, contenders for NCAA berths
Wesleyan/Bowdoin/Bates ... fighting to make the NESCAC playoffs
Conn College ... hope the new coach can pull out some miracles

Within those groups, though, it's a really tough call ...

[Canvas Hightops]

nescac1, the loss of Hutcherson moves Wesleyan down so far?  When D3hoopsforlyfe (sp?) reads that, you might have some 'splaining to do.

[nescac1]

Canvas Hightops, I'm not sure really it's moving Wesleyan down so far, when you consider that Colby, Tufts, and Trinity all return basically everyone to young teams that playing very well by season's end, and that Wesleyan lost five of its last six games to end last season WITH Hutcherson (including to Colby, Tufts and Trinity!).  And it's not every day you unexpectedly lose a Big 10-caliber player!  It took Williams two years to recover from losing Duncan Robinson, basically.  I think the same deal will happen with Wesleyan.   This year could be especially tough with no impact seniors on the roster.

I can imagine folks taking issue with Hamilton and Williams in the middle group, given that they both suffered massive losses of star seniors to graduation, but each can fall a long way and still be pretty good.  Hamilton still has the best player in the league returning, some promising young guys, and what seems to be a deep and talented incoming class.  Unlike Wesleyan, the Ephs are coming off a deep tourney run and this year are led by a solid, battle-tested senior class (2 or 3 senior starters).  The Ephs (like Wesleyan) have a few rising sophomores who should make a much bigger impact next year, but the key for the Ephs (and why I think anywhere from 2nd in the league through 7th in the league is a plausible finish for them) will be how fast what seems to be an elite recruiting class can contribute.   

I actually really like Wesleyan's rising sophomore class and I can imagine a few of those guys (Peek, DeLollo, Dezonie, maybe Ravetz) emerging as double-digit scorers as soon as this year, and certainly in future years.  But it's a lot to ask ALL those guys to jump from small role players to stars so quickly.  And they will need to for Wesleyan to be good.  Hutcherson did it all for the team last year, both as the top scorer and top creator.  Everything ran through him.   Only two other guys ever really created offense for themselves or others: Jordan Bonner, who is also gone (and was also the DPOY, so he's a massive loss) and Antone Walker, who's a talented but streaky player who may be asked to do WAY too much next year for a guy who is turnover prone and a low-percentage shooter (and that was as the third option).  Walker is the only returning player who averaged over one assist OR over one three pointer made for the Cards last year, so both playmaking and shooting on the perimeter are massive question marks, especially in a league that is loaded with guard talent almost everywhere else.   Wesleyan only brings in three frosh, and two of them are big men who probably will have to wait in line behind a deep roster at the 4/5.  I'm not sure if there even is a true point guard on the roster. 

[Colby Hoops]

I think I'd actually have Hamilton in its own tier above the Colby/Williams/Tufts/Trinity tier. Gilmour is a special player and the Hamilton young guys all seem very capable of stepping up into big roles -- I'm a big fan of Kendall and Osarenren (and Denloye can be very good too). Unlike Williams who loses basically every primary ballhandler and shot creator, Hamilton's offense can still run through Gilmour. Williams basically needs Spivy, Babek, Feinberg and the freshman to go from role players (or barely playing) to shot creators and primary ballhandlers. Hamilton just needs guys to go from role players to second and third bananas. I think that's a big difference.

Trinity will play great defense as always, will be interesting to see if they can improve their offense. Their style seems to work well in playing better teams, but leaves them susceptible to losing to some lesser competition early in the year.

Tufts has a lot of talent, but still hasn't shown much in the way of a defense. With a bit more commitment on that end, they have a chance to be very good.

Colby returns everyone and is in position to have it's best team in a while. Being so reliant on the 3-pointer does make them a little inconsistent, so will see if they can avoid some of the hiccups to lesser teams as well.

I'd probably rank the teams something like this, but as Nescac1 said there's a lot up in the air:

1. Amherst
2. Middlebury
3. Hamilton
4. Colby
5. Tufts
6. Williams
7. Trinity
8. Wesleyan
9. Bowdoin
10. Bates
11. Conn

[nescac1]

Colby Hoops, I think your rankings look pretty dead-on, at least based on what we expect teams' rosters to be.  I am not quite as rosy as you are on Hamilton and I'd knock them down a few spots, but that's about all.  Kena is awesome but he's going to get SO much attention from defenders this year.  The four starters they lost were all really good, really tough two-way players, each of whom started 3-4 years.  I like the guys you mentioned as well, but I'm not sure any of them are likely to be big-time offensive players this season, as no one returning besides Kena scored even 7 ppg. Osarenren and Kendall are awesome athletes so it depends how much their skills have grown in one off-season.  They lose a ton of size, rebounding, and rim protection as well.  Unless one of the frosh big guys are ready right away, they may be really small (albeit very quick and athletic) up front.  Depth will be a question mark too. 

[SpringSt7]

I know you touched upon Tufts' defense, Colby Hoops, but I'm really going to need to see more from both Tufts and Colby on that end if they are to be put in the top half of the league. To be blunt, both of their defenses were just brutal last season. Colby (44.3%) was 223rd in the country in field goal percentage defense, while Tufts (45.0%) was 273rd, out of 416 teams in D3. It's hard for me to just chalk that up to "a little bit more commitment". I think putting them in the 5-6 range is more fitting.

While we're on the topic of defense, Wesleyan and Trinity seem to always get the recognition and love when it comes to talking about defense, perhaps because their offenses have been tough to watch, Williams' team defense has been #2 and #5 in the country in the last two years. I don't know if the reputation they earned under Mike Maker as an offensive juggernaut without much defense has still stuck, but they have surely earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. Granted, losing Scadlock, Heskett, and even Soto to an extent, are big losses as team defenders, especially in a league with so many long and athletic wings, but I feel much more confident giving them the benefit of the doubt and expecting elite defense from Williams while the offense figures itself out at the start of the year. I think putting Williams and Hamilton in the same tier, with Colby, Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan in a 3rd tier, makes more sense.

[Colby Hoops]

I know you touched upon Tufts' defense, Colby Hoops, but I'm really going to need to see more from both Tufts and Colby on that end if they are to be put in the top half of the league. To be blunt, both of their defenses were just brutal last season. Colby (44.3%) was 223rd in the country in field goal percentage defense, while Tufts (45.0%) was 273rd, out of 416 teams in D3. It's hard for me to just chalk that up to "a little bit more commitment". I think putting them in the 5-6 range is more fitting.

While we're on the topic of defense, Wesleyan and Trinity seem to always get the recognition and love when it comes to talking about defense, perhaps because their offenses have been tough to watch, Williams' team defense has been #2 and #5 in the country in the last two years. I don't know if the reputation they earned under Mike Maker as an offensive juggernaut without much defense has still stuck, but they have surely earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. Granted, losing Scadlock, Heskett, and even Soto to an extent, are big losses as team defenders, especially in a league with so many long and athletic wings, but I feel much more confident giving them the benefit of the doubt and expecting elite defense from Williams while the offense figures itself out at the start of the year. I think putting Williams and Hamilton in the same tier, with Colby, Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan in a 3rd tier, makes more sense.

SpringSt7 -- some good points there, particularly regarding the defensive side of the ball. It is easy to look at Williams and forget they still should be a very good defensive team (although will likely take a step back with all they've lost, including Kempton who was a steadying presence on that end). I do think all of those teams are pretty close, so I won't argue any order you put them in, although I don't see Williams in different tier than the others.

Each team has big flaws -- Colby has no size, which makes it hard to be an above average defensive team. It's a huge question mark for them. I'm obviously a bit partial, but they do return every player from a team that was basically one win short of the NCAA tournament. I think the continuity will play a big role.

Tufts has never been a defensive juggernaut under Sheldon, so that is again the big question mark. They played a lot of young players last year, so with a bit more experience maybe they'll make some incremental improvements on that end. They also return everyone, and have plenty of offensive talent.

Williams loses a lot. Karpowicz will be a monster, but he's going to have to play more minutes than he ever has and stay out of foul trouble. Feinberg and Babek are both very good defenders, but have yet to breakthrough offensively. Between Spivy, Jones and the incoming freshman there is a lot of talent, but a lot of question marks.

Trinity is the opposite of Colby/Tufts, where they have a very solid defense, but they had a really hard time scoring against good competition last year. They were blown out more than any of the other teams in this tier last year. They did have some nice wins over Colby and Wesleyan, but they were crushed by Williams, Midd and Amherst. Donald Jorden should be a force, but I don't see many other guys who have shown the ability to score at a high level.

Will definitely be a fun year -- a lot of teams in the mix.

[nescac1]

I like Colby's chances a lot this year, too, if a few things bounce their way.  The team mainly relies on seniors and juniors, which is always a good thing.  Strahorn has employed a smart analytic strategy -- the odds of Colby, which is located in the middle of what cannot really be described as a D3 recruiting hotbed and which also has to compete with Bowdoin and Bates for Maine recruits (and then Tufts, Amherst, Williams for Massachusetts recruits), is rarely going to be able to go mano-a-mano with Williams, Amherst, Midd, Wesleyan on sheer athleticism or overall talent.  So Colby has decided that it is going to recruit loads of shooters, swarm like crazy on defense with a two-deep rotation, hope to force some turnovers, but give up some easy interior opportunities to teams with strong big men, and then compensate by shooting both a high volume and a high percentage of 3's.  If they can hit 40 percent from deep, they can give up 60 percent shooting on the interior and still come out even.  Basically every rotation guy this year will be able to hit a 3, and several are absolutely deadly.  And Sam Jefferson is the least-talked-about legit star in the league.  High risk but high reward ... see last year's Amherst/Hamilton road sweep, no easy feat! 

As for Trinity, I do think they really improved down the stretch last season.  They had a HORRIBLE road weekend at Williams and Midd, but after that disaster, they somehow turned it around and did look good late in the season.  They looked like a very different team even from the first Williams loss to the very competitive season-ending loss.  The D should be REALLY tough next year led by Kyle Padmore, who to me is one of the best two returning defenders in the league (along with Fru Che).  Agree that the offense needs to improve around Jorden but there is some talent there.  Once or twice per year, Nick Seretta looks like a first-team all-NESCAC player, but then in some games he is just MIA.  If he can put it all together as a senior, he could be the perimeter offensive spark they need to compete more consistently.  Padmore is a great athlete who has very gradually improved his once-abysmal shooting.  He's another guy who, if he makes one more moderate leap forward as a senior, could become a legit weapon on offense.  Trinity also seems to have some strong perimeter recruits coming in who could help right away and provide a spark off the bench. 

Tufts is more talented than either of those teams, and has yet another strong recruiting class coming in.  If the commitment to defense is there, they could be scary ... but we often say that about Tufts! 

[magicman]

Amherst, however, has a clear advantage at wing, with Fre Chu, who I am very high on. Midd will need someone to step up to play the 3, I suspect Delorenzo, Ryan Cahill, Joe leighton and maybe transfer Tommy eastman to see time at the position.   

Tommy Eastman is a talented player and I believe will be a nice addition to Middlebury.  I didn't know if he was at Middlebury or not as he was supposed to go there last year and then took the year off. If the Panthers have him, they have a player who could add close to a double-double every time he steps on the floor. (Although with the talent Midd has he probably won't put up those numbers) As a freshman he was in the running for Rookie of the Year in the SUNYAC conference with 175 points and 96 rebounds while averaging 18 minutes a game.

His sophomore year he was a 2nd team All Conference selection with 378 points (14.5 ppg) and 253 rebounds (9.7 rpg) He averaged 31 minutes a game and shot 53.9 % from the field. In his 2 games against SUNYAC champion Plattsburgh State in 2017-18 he had 22-12 and 23-10 just to give you an idea. Plattsburgh was 24-5 that year and made the Sweet 16.  He will have 2 years of eligibiltiy for the Panthers.     

[magicman]

 nescac1,

Good job, again, on all your analysis for the coming year, especially without seeing the posted rosters yet. Nobody does it better. Plus K.

[nescacfaninbos]

While both teams lose their starting centers, Midd can insert a proven center in Sobel ready to replace (and likely add more to the offense) McCord while Amherst doesn't have a proven replacement for Big Joe and CJ bachman (incoming 6'10'' freshman could be huge for them).

I only saw them play a handful of times last year but couldn't Sellew be considered a proven replacement as a big man? It appears to me he is probably more of a stretch 4 but outside of Williams (Karpowicz) and now maybe Middlebury (Sobel), how many NESCAC teams feature a true post 5?

Middlebury looks loaded to me if this transfer Eastman is a real player.

[MiddWatcher]

Fun to see hoop talk again ..... A quick note re: Middlebury.  Great to see Ryan Cahill back on the court after a lost season ( to injury ) a year ago. Have only seen one pick up game thus far, but Ryan looks very good. A terrific shooter, legit 6'7", his loss was a big one a year ago. A sleeper for you NESCAC fans who may not know him. Remember last season DeLorenzo became the backup 4th. " big " man. At 6'3 - 180.  He did fine, but the addition of Eastman and return of Cahill ( and James Finn, another 6'7" ) make Midd quite formidable, at least on paper. And remember that Sobel did not play more than 20 minutes in any contest, he will need backup help. At the 3 spot, Dahleh's 21.5% FG % against was best on team ( and best in NESCAC ! ) but DeLo's 32.5 % was second best on team and better than Bonner's ( DPOY ) 33.9 % against.  Dahleh and DeLo both shot affect with their left hand vs. righties; always a special factor in gauging defenders.  Anyone old enough to remember Bill Russell ? Primary returnees like Folger, Farrell, Bosco, Kornaker all look great in Pepin in the fall .... hoping the injury bug that hit team at end of last year will be in the past.

[Bucket]

Amherst, however, has a clear advantage at wing, with Fre Chu, who I am very high on. Midd will need someone to step up to play the 3, I suspect Delorenzo, Ryan Cahill, Joe leighton and maybe transfer Tommy eastman to see time at the position.   

Tommy Eastman is a talented player and I believe will be a nice addition to Middlebury.  I didn't know if he was at Middlebury or not as he was supposed to go there last year and then took the year off. If the Panthers have him, they have a player who could add close to a double-double every time he steps on the floor. (Although with the talent Midd has he probably won't put up those numbers) As a freshman he was in the running for Rookie of the Year in the SUNYAC conference with 175 points and 96 rebounds while averaging 18 minutes a game.

His sophomore year he was a 2nd team All Conference selection with 378 points (14.5 ppg) and 253 rebounds (9.7 rpg) He averaged 31 minutes a game and shot 53.9 % from the field. In his 2 games against SUNYAC champion Plattsburgh State in 2017-18 he had 22-12 and 23-10 just to give you an idea. Plattsburgh was 24-5 that year and made the Sweet 16.  He will have 2 years of eligibiltiy for the Panthers.   

Yes, Eastman is at Midd.

[SpringSt7]

While both teams lose their starting centers, Midd can insert a proven center in Sobel ready to replace (and likely add more to the offense) McCord while Amherst doesn't have a proven replacement for Big Joe and CJ bachman (incoming 6'10'' freshman could be huge for them).

I only saw them play a handful of times last year but couldn't Sellew be considered a proven replacement as a big man? It appears to me he is probably more of a stretch 4 but outside of Williams (Karpowicz) and now maybe Middlebury (Sobel), how many NESCAC teams feature a true post 5?

Middlebury looks loaded to me if this transfer Eastman is a real player.

Outside of those two, you could also add Trinity's Donald Jorden and Tufts' Luke Rogers to the list. Mike McEneney at Hamilton played in 21 of his team's 30 games and is a legit 6'8/6'9 with a frame. I don't know if they plan on going more athletic next year and starting Kendall at the 5 as he got the majority of the backup 5 minutes last year when Groll was out, but he should certainly see more action.

Interesting to see Sellew mentioned, as I think the graduation of Joe Schneider is really being overlooked for Amherst. One of the reasons they were so effective defensively is because of the way they were able to sink him on pick and rolls and prevent drop offs and easy buckets for opposing bigs, not to mention the length and shot blocking. Sellew obviously doesn't supply the same size and it's hard to imagine him bringing the same physicality and banging down low with other NESCAC centers every night. Offensively they will be a matchup nightmare, as dropping him to the 5 probably allows Allen to slide down to the 3 and get Day on the court with Robinson more often, but I have a hard time seeing the defense being what it was last year. I'm sure they have some younger guys in the pipeline but very rarely have we seen big men come in and make a serious impact as underclassmen.

[nescac1]

I agree with SpringSt7's analysis that Schneider was a monster on D.  But on the other hand he only played 18 mpg.  Granted, very impactful minutes.  I do think even if they take fewer risks that Amherst's perimeter D is going to be crazy good this year.  Robinson and Allen are easily the best defensive backcourt in the league, quick and relentless.  Che can shut down just about any wing / forward, some legit dudes had nightmarish games vs his D.  If Paul Chery starts at the 3 (maybe not due to offense) Amherst could have four of the best guard/wing defenders in the league out there together!  And given his bloodlines I would guess a healthy McCarthy if we ever see one can defend too.   Phelan also looks like a dude who will be a stellar defender as he matures, if Amherst goes small expect more minutes from him.   Amherst almost surely won't be as tough inside without the three bigs they graduated but they will still be extremely tough to score on.

All the Midd comments are interesting.  The deep Panther junior class is so stacked now that Midd should have a two-year run as a nationally relevant team.  Of course the Amherst junior class ain't shabby either. 

App does not get enough credit for his defensive coaching. The Ephs did very well on that end last year despite major struggles at times vs quick guards.  The Ephs' five best guys were not a great positional match which was a challenge.  My hope is that despite losing a bunch of very experienced and tough defenders the Ephs will compensate in part with a more prototypical lineup.  And I do think the Jones-Feinberg combo at forward will be really good defensively.   Guard is a bigger with some totally new faces.  The Ephs certainly brought in some long athletic frosh.  Can they defend right away?   Again, who knows .....