MBB: NESCAC

[Colby Hoops]

Alright, we're a third of the way through the season for most teams. Here's my thought on the big question for each team so far:

Amherst -- Do they have another gear? Amherst has blown out the bad teams they've played and looked pretty ordinary in every game. Even excluding the Westfield St. shocker, Amherst looks merely good, not dominant. Robinson getting up to speed will certainly help, but I think it's safe to say this team doesn't look like the national title contender they were expected to be so far.

Bates -- Can they get enough decent play from the bigs to make the conference tournament? Between Spellman, Gilpin, Greenahlgh, Baxter and Coyne, the Bobcats have a solid guard group. If they can get average play from some of the young bigs, I think they can notch a few league wins. If not, it could be a long year. They've barely snuck by some pretty poor teams and were crushed by Babson. But wins over J&W and Bowdoin were both good signs.

Bowdoin -- Can anyone besides David Reynolds score? Zavier Rucker and Sam Grad both will have opportunities to step up, but it's been a slog for the Polar Bears thus far on offense. They only lead Conn in team PPG this season. There is some hope as they played Babson very tough, but an uncompetitive loss to Bates doesn't bode well.

Colby -- What do the Mules look like against top competition? Colby has pounded pretty much every team they've played outside of the season opener against Ramapo. It's been a slate of mostly mediocre teams -- no cupcakes, but also nothing resembling the top of the Nescac. They won't sneak up on anyone either.

Conn College -- Can they win a league game? I actually think they will. They're not good, but they've also been in every game they've played so far. Unlike some past years, this is a team clearly rebuilding in the right way. They play hard for their coach and have some young players with promise. They'll be outclassed by the top of the league, but it's not an automatic W any more.

Hamilton -- Can the young supporting cast continue to step up around Gilmour? Despite a surprising loss to SUNY Purchase, Hamilton has had a nice first semester and look to be a top of the league contender. I do think getting Denloye back would be a huge boost. He seemed primed to take over a secondary scoring role for this team.

Middlebury -- Can the defense match the offense? Midd has the chance to be elite, and they can clearly score the ball with anyone. They have a bit of a gap in wing defense that is the big question mark. When Farrell, Bosco and Kornaker share the floor there's not the size to defend wings, but when Eastman is on the floor with Folger and Sobel, there isn't the footspeed to defend wings. Will be interesting to see if that continues to be an issue.

Trinity -- Same as always. Can they score against good competition? Seems like a pretty typical Trinity team thus far. They'll be competitive and they'll try to grind the game to their pace. They've lost some close games against good teams, and have been more impressive than the record might indicate.

Tufts -- Can they find some consistency? It felt like Tufts had a better year last year than they actually did because they made a run in the conference tournament. They've struggled against good competition this year, and despite all of the talent they don't seem to be able to put it all together on a consistent basis. Not to bash Bob Sheldon, but I've generally been uninspired by Tufts from a coaching perspective. They often seem to underperform their talent. They have the pieces to be really good if they can find it.

Wesleyan -- Which of the young guys will pop? Sam Peek has crazy talent, and I think he's got a chance to be really good. Would like to see him get all the way to the basket more.  They're adjusting to life without Hutcherson, but I think this is a good year to see if they can get some positive growth from the sophomores and some consistency from Walker and James. They have more talent than Bates, Bowdoin and Conn.

Williams -- How steep is the learning curve? A lot of promising young players being thrown right into the fire. They've actually defended better than I expected, but the offense has been an issue and the team is shooting a miserable 26% from deep and only 41% from the floor overall. That should tick up as the young guys gain more confidence. Growth isn't linear, so I expect they'll have games where they look really good and games where they look lost. Don't think they'll be a competitor to win the conference, but they should be a tough out come conference tourney time if the young guys gain confidence.

[amh63]

GoPerry.....read the article at breakfast. Thought of posting the link here...thanks for posting the article.  Prime sports article on the WSJ.
Watched the Pine Manor game last night..."early start" , good crowd for a midweek game around dinner time. Students drifted in.  Toomey played a lot of players in many combinations.  Amherst's next game will be in Naples, Fl.  New year...two tournament games against better opponents.
Announcer mentioned that Coach Hixon was in the crowd after the game.  Academic exams ahead before holidays/break for the team.

[MiddWatcher]

Middlebury -- Can the defense match the offense? Midd has the chance to be elite, and they can clearly score the ball with anyone. They have a bit of a gap in wing defense that is the big question mark. When Farrell, Bosco and Kornaker share the floor there's not the size to defend wings, but when Eastman is on the floor with Folger and Sobel, there isn't the footspeed to defend wings. Will be interesting to see if that continues to be an issue.

To the point, Midd's guards defensively are off to a good start vs. the non-league competition. According to Synergy's numbers: Farrell ( .33 FG % against ), Kornaker ( .34% ), Bosco ( .36 % ) are in the " Good - Very Good " range, and DeLorenzo chimes in at .35% and Ingram at .38 %.  Bosco is at .710 in Defensive Points per possession allowed with DeLorenzo right behind at .733. ( #1 and #2 on team ) Not great, but not terrible, either.  Curiously enough, DeLorenzo ( 54% ) and Ingram ( 53% ) currently lead the team in FG shooting offense, while DeLo's 3 point shooting at 52% has him in the top 6 in the league. His 1.186 Points per Possession leads the team by far and has him in the top 5 in the league, also.  He is 9 for last 12 on threes ( .75 % ).  So, despite the unfortunate injury to Kornaker; the Midd bench has stepped up during the past few games.  I am not sure if the Staff would consider those numbers " an issue ".  Maybe so, you would have to ask the Midd coaches.

[SpringSt7]

Middlebury -- Can the defense match the offense? Midd has the chance to be elite, and they can clearly score the ball with anyone. They have a bit of a gap in wing defense that is the big question mark. When Farrell, Bosco and Kornaker share the floor there's not the size to defend wings, but when Eastman is on the floor with Folger and Sobel, there isn't the footspeed to defend wings. Will be interesting to see if that continues to be an issue.

To the point, Midd's guards defensively are off to a good start vs. the non-league competition. According to Synergy's numbers: Farrell ( .33 FG % against ), Kornaker ( .34% ), Bosco ( .36 % ) are in the " Good - Very Good " range, and DeLorenzo chimes in at .35% and Ingram at .38 %.  Bosco is at .710 in Defensive Points per possession allowed with DeLorenzo right behind at .733. ( #1 and #2 on team ) Not great, but not terrible, either.  Curiously enough, DeLorenzo ( 54% ) and Ingram ( 53% ) currently lead the team in FG shooting offense, while DeLo's 3 point shooting at 52% has him in the top 6 in the league. His 1.186 Points per Possession leads the team by far and has him in the top 5 in the league, also.  He is 9 for last 12 on threes ( .75 % ).  So, despite the unfortunate injury to Kornaker; the Midd bench has stepped up during the past few games.  I am not sure if the Staff would consider those numbers " an issue ".  Maybe so, you would have to ask the Midd coaches.

Middlebury's scoring defense is 169th in the country out of 416 and their field goal percentage defense is 149th. Also, the Synergy stats, while interesting, never tell the complete story. They don't account for who you're guarding, so there is a difference between holding a star guard to 35% shooting and a rotation/backup guard to 35%. Same with the offensive numbers—I would hope Ingram and DeLorenzo are taking higher efficiency shots. I want Jack Farrell to be the one taking the harder shots if I'm Jeff Brown.

[Colby Hoops]

Middlebury -- Can the defense match the offense? Midd has the chance to be elite, and they can clearly score the ball with anyone. They have a bit of a gap in wing defense that is the big question mark. When Farrell, Bosco and Kornaker share the floor there's not the size to defend wings, but when Eastman is on the floor with Folger and Sobel, there isn't the footspeed to defend wings. Will be interesting to see if that continues to be an issue.

To the point, Midd's guards defensively are off to a good start vs. the non-league competition. According to Synergy's numbers: Farrell ( .33 FG % against ), Kornaker ( .34% ), Bosco ( .36 % ) are in the " Good - Very Good " range, and DeLorenzo chimes in at .35% and Ingram at .38 %.  Bosco is at .710 in Defensive Points per possession allowed with DeLorenzo right behind at .733. ( #1 and #2 on team ) Not great, but not terrible, either.  Curiously enough, DeLorenzo ( 54% ) and Ingram ( 53% ) currently lead the team in FG shooting offense, while DeLo's 3 point shooting at 52% has him in the top 6 in the league. His 1.186 Points per Possession leads the team by far and has him in the top 5 in the league, also.  He is 9 for last 12 on threes ( .75 % ).  So, despite the unfortunate injury to Kornaker; the Midd bench has stepped up during the past few games.  I am not sure if the Staff would consider those numbers " an issue ".  Maybe so, you would have to ask the Midd coaches.

Middlebury's scoring defense is 169th in the country out of 416 and their field goal percentage defense is 149th. Also, the Synergy stats, while interesting, never tell the complete story. They don't account for who you're guarding, so there is a difference between holding a star guard to 35% shooting and a rotation/backup guard to 35%. Same with the offensive numbers—I would hope Ingram and DeLorenzo are taking higher efficiency shots. I want Jack Farrell to be the one taking the harder shots if I'm Jeff Brown.

Also, Synergy stats like these don't stabilize in such a small sample size. Bench players have probably defended a few dozen shots on the season -- the randomness in that can be massive.

It's difficult in general for college coaches to use data like this effectively given how short the season is and how long it takes for it to stabilize.

[MiddWatcher]

Sure, good stuff, " Hoops ".  And makes sense, one would suppose. In this case, ( having followed a lot of these players fairly closely over the years ) - not really. DeLo has vascillated between .31 and .35 for over three years.  Opponents are 13-37 this year, couple of guys have hit some pretty tough shots against him. Farrell's opponents at 21-63; a big improvement for Jack.  Extrapolated out to 400 shots or so ?? ( as you suggest )  - - would be about the same. I am a big believer in " what is, is ".  Watch technique in every area of the game - but particularly as regards field goal shot defense.  If a player has quality shot affect talent - it will show. DeLo is one of the few guys nowadays who affects righties with his left hand, and vice versa. A forgotten skill. Used to be taught a LOT by a Coach named Whitmore, Colby Hoops : ).  You may know him.   And shots coming off the bench ?  Toughest shots going, no matter who you are. Because you know that if you miss, you are probably going to get yanked.  The " high efficiency " shots you mentioned are either layups  ( really quick guys like Farrell can get to them ) or long distance threes.  Last time I tried to shoot a " 3 " it was anything but easy. It's a long way out there !!  Especially when you know you are coming out if you miss. Nothing easy about them at all.  More power to guys like Dorion ( Colby ) Day and Mobley ( Amherst ) Lutz ( Hamilton ), and DeLorenzo,  who are expected to make threes - or they are headed back to the bench.  That's the way coaches are, for the most part.  Yes, I coached college basketball for over twenty years. Been there. Go Mules - hope it will be a great game on January 17 at Pepin Gym.

[SpringSt7]

Took a stab at picking an X-Factor for each team as we prepare for 2020 and conference play. Obviously none of these teams are perfect and so there are a ton of options.

Amherst: Grant Robinson--need him to play like he's capable of if they want to compete at the national level

Bates: Andrew Snoddy--someone needs to provide an interior scoring punch

Bowdoin: Zavier Rucker--can he continue to score the ball at an increased rate while making everyone else around him better? The Polar Bears need more offense

Colby: Noah Tyson--A ton of options, but for the Mules to continue at this rate, they are going to need his versatility and athleticism when they can't shoot teams out of the gym

Conn College: Dan Draffan--Feels strange that he's not taking the most shots on the team, his development is still key to their rebuild, this year and next year.

Hamilton: Sayo Denloye--Been mentioned a number of times, if/when healthy, seems like their most obvious candidate to provide #2 scoring.

Middlebury: Max Bosco--A ton of options on this team obviously but when Bosco is scoring like he is capable of, their backcourt is simply unstoppable.

Trinity: Donald Jorden--All 5 starters average between 9.8 and 11.8 points per game, so a tough choice, but Jorden seems to have shown the most capability and consistency to do more.

Tufts: Justin Kouyoumdjian--Hasn't played much since returning from injury, can never have too many guys who can dribble and shoot.

Wesleyan: Antone Walker--The concerns about efficiency and shot selection have proved valid. Need his percentages to go up for them to avoid missing out on the NESCAC tournament.

Williams: Spencer Spivy--The most obvious candidate to be their number 2 scorer, but has not shot the ball well at all and now has an ankle injury to deal with as well. Needs to be a 14+ ppg game for the Ephs to live up to their potential.

[amh63]

Interesting posting on the D3hoops.com front page today.  Two stories wrt to the Springfield vs Westfield St. game on Dec.13. Two previous opponents played by Amherst.  Both articles reported that Springfield prevailed over Westfield State, with Ross again scoring 30 pts, rebounding well, etc., etc.,....doing his All-American thing.  Great player and imho, the leading candidate for Player of the Year.  However, both stories out of Westfield, posted Springfield at 8-0! 
A "Twilight Zone" type of story, IMO, .  Amherst Beat Springfield earlier this season in LeFrak.  Guess, the writer forgot.....record should be 8-1 or 7-1 for the Pride.  Oh, Amherst lost to Westfield St. at Westfield...do not know if Westfield's record needs to also be adjusted.

[ContinentalDomer]

Hamilton put an absolute beat-down on Nichols. Final 92-67. Not much compete from the Bison, and a solid resume and confidence booster for Hamilton as the team heads into its winter break. Very balanced scoring from the Continentals. Gilmour led the way with 14 and Cooper had 12, while both Lutz and Kendall added 11. Three players had 8, and two had 7.

[nescac1]

Very good list, SpringSt7!

Bit of recruiting news: Kiran Kling, 6'9 center from Maret School in D.C. commits to Wesleyan.

[Colby Hoops]

Hamilton put an absolute beat-down on Nichols. Final 92-67. Not much compete from the Bison, and a solid resume and confidence booster for Hamilton as the team heads into its winter break. Very balanced scoring from the Continentals. Gilmour led the way with 14 and Cooper had 12, while both Lutz and Kendall added 11. Three players had 8, and two had 7.

Nichols has been overrated in the polls, but dominating to that level is very impressive by Hamilton.

[nescac1]

What is the highest Colby has ever been ranked?  As I mentioned before, Colby has a schedule nicely set up to get to 14-0 so long as they don't have a really subpar game.  I expect Colby will end up at 16 in the next poll.  But if they get to 14-0, they will surely move into the top 10.  After that, things get a lot tougher ...

With the win over Nichols, and with seven teams from 17 through 32 picking up an L, Hamilton has an outside chance of cracking the Top 25 as well ...

[NEhoops]

The info below is from the D3hoops website and is based on rankings starting in the 1999-2000 season.

Colby was ranked one time at #25 in the 2009-2010 season. I'm sure some of the early 90's Colby teams would have been ranked if the poll was around.

School   Highest Ranking   - Seasons Ranked - Times Ranked
Amherst   1   19   227
Hamilton   3   4   32 (includes seasons in the Liberty League)
Williams   1   15   171
Bates   12   2   10
Bowdoin   18   3   8
Colby   25   1   1
Conn    5   2   24
Midd         1   9   104
Wesleyan   9   5   24
Tufts           3   5   26
Trinity   6   8   39

[Colby Hoops]

The info below is from the D3hoops website and is based on rankings starting in the 1999-2000 season.

Colby was ranked one time at #25 in the 2009-2010 season. I'm sure some of the early 90's Colby teams would have been ranked if the poll was around.

School   Highest Ranking   - Seasons Ranked - Times Ranked
Amherst   1   19   227
Hamilton   3   4   32 (includes seasons in the Liberty League)
Williams   1   15   171
Bates   12   2   10
Bowdoin   18   3   8
Colby   25   1   1
Conn    5   2   24
Midd         1   9   104
Wesleyan   9   5   24
Tufts           3   5   26
Trinity   6   8   39

Good info NEHoops. What's pretty crazy is that Colby hasn't finished in the top half of the NESCAC since that 2009-10 year (team finished 6-3, 3rd in the conference, 19-6 overall). It was a rare year when the league only received two NCAA bids (don't worry I'm not still bitter about it  )

As NEHoops notes, the last time the Mules were nationally dominant was in the late 80s and early 90s (but that certainly predates any D3Hoops rankings). They won three ECAC titles in 90, 91 and 93. In 1990 they finished 26-1, and I believe they beat Rochester (the D3 national champion that year) pretty handily. This was before NESCAC teams were able to partake in the postseason.

[nescac1]

Interesting data.  I wonder how many other leagues have had every team ranked?  Or eight teams ranked in the top 10?  If Colby keeps winning, they could be the ninth ...