MBB: NESCAC

[Bucket]

Excited to watch Colby/Bowdoin this afternoon -- no matter the records CBB games always tend to be a fight. Every win is critical for Colby at this point as their SOS numbers are not good -- wins against Ramapo and New Jersey City College both looked much better at the time. Despite an impressive margin of victory and undefeated record, the Mules don't have any particularly notable wins.

On the Pool C board, projections have both Tufts and Amherst ahead of Colby to this point. Don't think I agree with that given how Colby's looked, but when it comes selection time the SOS numbers and any notable wins are really important.

Yeah, when it comes selection time, the criteria is all that matters. Colby's SOS will rise once the Mules start conference play, and they will have ample opportunity to pick up wins against teams that are likely to be ranked in the region.

[Colby Hoops]

Dominant performance in Waterville today with the Mules notching a 108-62 win over Bowdoin. The game was relatively close for a half, before Colby exploded in the second half with 67 points. 19 of 36 from deep, 28 assists and just 9 turnovers for the Mules.

Will King was outstanding from the start, finishing 16/4/9 (12 pts in the first half when the game was close). He has such a good feel for the game, and his passing is so advanced for a freshman. Alex Dorion was also excellent, knocking down six threes on his way to 23 points and Noah Tyson played his usual great defense and finished with 8/10/6. Jefferson ended up with 22 on 8/11 of shooting, but that mostly came with the game out of reach -- Sam Grad did a nice job denying him in the first half and not letting him get any clean looks.

Bad news for the Mules is that Wallace Tucker didn't play and I didn't see him on the bench. The Mules depth gets very thin without him as they're basically down to 7 guys. Fingers crossed for a speedy return for him.

Outside of Reynolds, Bowdoin doesn't have anyone who can score consistently and once the Mules got rolling the defense fell apart as well. They'll probably be better than Conn, but it's going to be a long season in Brunswick.

Next up, the league opener against Conn on Friday. Don't think that should be much of a problem -- Conn just put up only 39 points in a blowout loss to a 4-6 Vassar team. Then next Saturday vs. a Trinity team which has looked pretty solid of late.

[Old Guy]

I watched most of the Colby 108-62 win over Bowdoin. Fairly close in the first half. Colby's SOS might not be the best, so they will have to get some big NESCAC wins, but I doubt any NESCAC coaches are taking them lightly: it's not like they're squeaking out wins against inferior opponents — they're bludgeoning people! I suspect you have to go back a long way to find this point differential between these two century-old rivals. (This game did not count in NESCAC standings and was played at Colby. Some pride was on the line though.)

They're confident, having a good time. They announced themselves last year on that Amherst-Hamilton upset weekend. They're loose, play with smiles on their faces. Hanna-Dorion-Jefferson can really shoot it, from far away! So can Tyson (10 rebounds) and King, the other starters. Colby was 19-36 from three! They're well-organized on offense, hardly helter-skelter.

I watched Midd-Springfield yesterday with other Midd partisans from the comfort of my living room. I was not feeling good when Middlebury went down by 15 in the first half (29-14) — and thought we were lucky that Jake Ross sat out so much time after picking up his second foul. Midd fans are deservedly giving Ingram/Kornaker the premier etoile for keeping Ross 20 points under his average. I suspect Springfield fans will say Ross had a bad game and won't go 4-17 very often. In truth, he did not show much inclination to take over the game at crunch time.

Midd has settled into a pretty efficient nine-player rotation with Delorenzo, Eastman, Cahill, and Ingram coming off the bench, adding energy and specific skills to the mix on the floor. All had double-digit minutes against Springfield.

Plattsburgh next (a bit down this year) then the big road trip for the Panthers to Amherst and Hamilton.

[lumbercat]

If the Blue and Grey continue to shoot threes like today watch out.... and they seem to shoot lights out from all over the floor.
Not sure how they will fare against NESCAC elite but believe there is a distinct opportunity for them this year with some chinks in the armor of some perennial NESCAC powers. With some size in the front court they would be formidable.

Cant remember a more dominant Mule win over the Polar Bears in many years.

[NEhoops]

Middlebury is playing on another level right now and is clearly the top team in the region - their depth is what is setting them apart. Colby has been impressive as well and it shouldn't be a surprize to anyone if they end up at the top of the standings in league play.

Great slate of games kicks things off this weekend. A few that standout:

Tufts at Wesleyan: TUF wants to make a claim as a top four team. WES will be battling it out in the second tier. I give the edge to TUF on the road.

Middlebury at Amherst: A “top four” battle. AMH can match the size and depth of MID, but I think the road team takes it in this one. Can’t you tell I’m high on MID.
   
Williams at Amherst: Rivalry game – throw the records out. Back to back on the road will be tough, AMH takes it. 
   
Trinity at Colby: TRI has the ability to disrupt the rhythm of COL, but can they score enough. I like COL at home.
      
Middlebury at Hamilton: Slight edge to HAM at home on a back to back .... I think.   

Bates at Wesleyan: A “second tier” battle. Edge to WES at home as long as they can score consistently.    

[nescac1]

With league play imminent, I thought I'd take a crack at where all-league honors would stand based on the first part of the schedule.  This will surely change dramatically once league play begins:

First Team all-league:

Sam Jefferson (POY)
Kena Gilmour
Matt Karpowicz
Jack Farrell
Luke Rogers

Second Team all-league:

Eric Sellew
Fru Che
Matt Hannah
David Reynolds
Eric Savage

Grant Robinson and Matt Folger will surely rise, given that both have been limited by injuries / recovery. 

ROY: 1. Cole Prowitt-Smith, 2. Will King, 3. Nkosi Cooper, 4. Ben McPherron

For Williams, CPS has had an up-and-down but overall quite strong first year, although Will King is right on his heels.  Matt Karpowicz has been playing fantastic basketball over his past four games (averaging a monstrous 21-11 over that stretch).  And yet, the team is struggling along at 5-5, losing 4 out of the last 5, and has yet to win a closely contested game (0-4 in games that were one possession games going into the last two minutes of play). 

While there are a number of culprits (lots of injuries, playing tons of frosh, no fixed rotation still halfway into the season, poor outside shooting, terrible defending of the three point shot against good-shooting teams), free throw shooting has been one huge seemingly-correctable issue that stands out: 58.4 percent on the season, including 12-25 over the last two games.  No one in the most commonly-used starting five is even over 65 percent, despite several of them being very capable shooters.  The Ephs need to turn that around if they hope to win some of these closely-contested games.  But plenty of other things need to get fixed, too.  And the upcoming schedule is not kind for the Ephs ... the next eight games feature two vs. Amherst, one vs. Midd, one vs. Colby, and a road game at St. Joe's Ct, which has been hot.  The way the Ephs have been playing, they are underdogs in all of those games.  Hopefully the Ephs can start to figure things out tonight vs. Fitchburg State

[JEFFFAN]

With league play imminent, I thought I'd take a crack at where all-league honors would stand based on the first part of the schedule.  This will surely change dramatically once league play begins:

First Team all-league:

Sam Jefferson (POY)
Kena Gilmour
Matt Karpowicz
Jack Farrell
Luke Rogers

Second Team all-league:

Eric Sellew
Fru Che
Matt Hannah
David Reynolds
Eric Savage

Grant Robinson and Matt Folger will surely rise, given that both have been limited by injuries / recovery. 

ROY: 1. Cole Prowitt-Smith, 2. Will King, 3. Nkosi Cooper, 4. Ben McPherron

For Williams, CPS has had an up-and-down but overall quite strong first year, although Will King is right on his heels.  Matt Karpowicz has been playing fantastic basketball over his past four games (averaging a monstrous 21-11 over that stretch).  And yet, the team is struggling along at 5-5, losing 4 out of the last 5, and has yet to win a closely contested game (0-4 in games that were one possession games going into the last two minutes of play). 

While there are a number of culprits (lots of injuries, playing tons of frosh, no fixed rotation still halfway into the season, poor outside shooting, terrible defending of the three point shot against good-shooting teams), free throw shooting has been one huge seemingly-correctable issue that stands out: 58.4 percent on the season, including 12-25 over the last two games.  No one in the most commonly-used starting five is even over 65 percent, despite several of them being very capable shooters.  The Ephs need to turn that around if they hope to win some of these closely-contested games.  But plenty of other things need to get fixed, too.  And the upcoming schedule is not kind for the Ephs ... the next eight games feature two vs. Amherst, one vs. Midd, one vs. Colby, and a road game at St. Joe's Ct, which has been hot.  The way the Ephs have been playing, they are underdogs in all of those games.  Hopefully the Ephs can start to figure things out tonight vs. Fitchburg State

NESCAC1 - I am heading up to Amherst for the game Saturday - would be interested in your pre-game scouting report!

[nescac1]

Jefffan, hard to give a scouting report on the Ephs, who are so inconsistent from game to game and even half to half.  The team is still figuring out roles and rotations, other than Karp as the top option.  I think vs. Amherst any outcome from a very narrow win to a massive blow-out loss is plausible to imagine ...

Much more spirited, energetic performance from the Ephs tonight than vs. Union.  Especially on the defensive end, which was night and day.  They were playing loose but with a lot of energy at the same time, as opposed to Union, which seemed kind of joyless and tight.   They were a bit TOO loose with the ball at times, leading to way too many turnovers (19) and FTAs continued to be an issue.  But otherwise, a really nice effort from the Ephs. 

Karp led the way as usual, but great to see three guys who had off days vs. Union play much, much better tonight: Myers (playing his most impactful game as an Eph), Jovan Jones (playing with the sort of aggression he needs to succeed) and Cole Prowitt-Smith (who really played within himself and looked in total control, didn't try to do too much on his own).  Cole had 16-7-2, and Jovan 12-6-3 plus 2 steals.  The Ephs need those two guys to produce like that on a game-to-game basis to succeed.  I continue to really enjoy what Alex Stoddard can do, he had two massive blocks today, he's just so long for a guard, and three more triples today, he's grown into the Ephs' best shooter. 

I really like the Karp-Jovan-Stoddard-Cole and any other shooter / ballhandler (ideally Spivy if he can get it going, if not Babek or Myers) unit together for the Ephs, because while very young that is a really long and athletic group that can also shoot the ball.   Long term, a CPS-Stoddard backcourt is going to cause a lot of problems for other teams from night to night.  This year, some nights they will, some nights they won't.  But I hope the Ephs play with this sort of energy going forward, while trying to clean up some of the miscues. 

[Cards Fan]

Wesleyan hasn't been touched on much, so here's my analysis:

The team can't shoot the 3 ball. Seriously, there are several players shooting below 25% on it. All their points come on 2s.

The senior class is quite possibly the worst senior class the school has ever seen. They almost never see the floor, yet they are all captains. None of them have been useful in the slightest for giving them a needed boost.

There is serious potential to be a great team next year, but right now it seems they are a step away from that. Getting obliterated by Eastern CT (4-7) and Williams (6-5), is awful. Sure, great teams in general, but both are on down years, and they just can't be losses. The team hasn't shown any ability to compete in a big game yet.

There's absolutely a chance they get hot behind Jordan James, but help from 3 point land is definitely needed. The team has talent, but haven't effectively used it yet. They could honestly finish anywhere from 3-10. That's just how the NESCAC works sometimes, though - no one is out on day 1!

[amh63]

It's going to snow this afternoon in my neck of the woods.  Amherst heads down to Middletown for the "little three" game that does not count in the conference...should be interesting to see how the team plays as another "little three" game is on Sat.
The Amherst women plays at home tonight.  It is to be noted that both Amherst teams have risen in the latest D3 hoops polls.  Early polls are still a dart game, especially this year, IMO.
There appears to be an odd listing on today's men's games...on d3hoops.  Rhodes College is playing Mississippi College for Women!   Guess there needs to be a name change or is the game listed wrong?
Several days ago there was a Maine team playing itself listed .

[ronk]

It's going to snow this afternoon in my neck of the woods.  Amherst heads down to Middletown for the "little three" game that does not count in the conference...should be interesting to see how the team plays as another "little three" game is on Sat.
The Amherst women plays at home tonight.  It is to be noted that both Amherst teams have risen in the latest D3 hoops polls.  Early polls are still a dart game, especially this year, IMO.
There appears to be an odd listing on today's men's games...on d3hoops.  Rhodes College is playing Mississippi College for Women!  Guess there needs to be a name change or is the game listed wrong?
Several days ago there was a Maine team playing itself listed .

Got a consultation for knee replacement surgery this afternoon so I'm hoping to get home before the snow's a factor.
Mississippi recently(this season?) began a men's team schedule, also.

[Colby Hoops]

I do think there will be a lot of parity across the league this year (I'd bet that every team has at least two losses). Outside of Conn and Bowdoin, I think the rest of the league should produce some very good games.

Midd is undefeated and very talented, but they haven't looked invincible by any means. Amherst is a bit of a sleeping giant, they really turned it on the second half of last year and I think they have a good chance to do that again. If they can get the old Grant Robinson and more consistent play from Day, McCarthy or any other reserve, I think they'll be very tough. Colby has been dominant against a weak schedule and faces size issues against every team in the league (lot of good bigs that will test them Rogers, Karp, Sellew, Folger/Sobel, etc.). Hamilton and Tufts both have top-end talent and good depth, but have each had a couple of down games to this point. Both are more than capable of beating the top teams. Trinity's season would look a little different if a few of their close losses had been wins -- they are very balanced and seemed to have more offensive punch than in year's past. Williams is an enigma that's been discussed at length. Wesleyan is hard to get a read on, but definitely have enough talent to compete with anyone (interested to see them tonight against Amherst). Bates is feisty and have the guard talent and depth to surprise a few teams. They also have the front court inexperience to get blown out at times, but they're usually a fun team to watch. Bowdoin may win a couple games if Reynolds gets crazy hot, and Conn will likely be in for a long year.

[JEFFFAN]

Jefffan, hard to give a scouting report on the Ephs, who are so inconsistent from game to game and even half to half.  The team is still figuring out roles and rotations, other than Karp as the top option.  I think vs. Amherst any outcome from a very narrow win to a massive blow-out loss is plausible to imagine ...

Much more spirited, energetic performance from the Ephs tonight than vs. Union.  Especially on the defensive end, which was night and day.  They were playing loose but with a lot of energy at the same time, as opposed to Union, which seemed kind of joyless and tight.   They were a bit TOO loose with the ball at times, leading to way too many turnovers (19) and FTAs continued to be an issue.  But otherwise, a really nice effort from the Ephs. 

Karp led the way as usual, but great to see three guys who had off days vs. Union play much, much better tonight: Myers (playing his most impactful game as an Eph), Jovan Jones (playing with the sort of aggression he needs to succeed) and Cole Prowitt-Smith (who really played within himself and looked in total control, didn't try to do too much on his own).  Cole had 16-7-2, and Jovan 12-6-3 plus 2 steals.  The Ephs need those two guys to produce like that on a game-to-game basis to succeed.  I continue to really enjoy what Alex Stoddard can do, he had two massive blocks today, he's just so long for a guard, and three more triples today, he's grown into the Ephs' best shooter. 

I really like the Karp-Jovan-Stoddard-Cole and any other shooter / ballhandler (ideally Spivy if he can get it going, if not Babek or Myers) unit together for the Ephs, because while very young that is a really long and athletic group that can also shoot the ball.   Long term, a CPS-Stoddard backcourt is going to cause a lot of problems for other teams from night to night.  This year, some nights they will, some nights they won't.  But I hope the Ephs play with this sort of energy going forward, while trying to clean up some of the miscues.

Thanks for this - very helpful.  I have not been to LeFrak in five years or so and am looking forward to the game.  I would tell you that I am going to visit my old fraternity but, oh, that's right, they got rid of the social life at Amherst. Topic for another forum!

Interesting dialogue on here about Grant Robinson, who clearly is not on par with last year.   His minutes are down but what is most interesting is that his FG shooting percentage and three point shooting percentage are also down considerably over last year.  Not sure what is up with that but clearly alarming.   The good news?  Garrett Day is playing more, scoring more, and shooting at much higher percentage levels from both the field and three point range compared to last season.   To some extent, he is "replacing" the productivity of Robinson and maybe even improving on it.  Not sure how their roles are going to play out in NESCAC but the comparisons to last year are significant.

Overall numbers compared to last year ... irrelevant IMHO until we get into the NESCAC.   Sorry, but if the Jeffs are going to play Lesley every year, the overall stats don't mean too much.   They never really do until NESCAC time.

One interesting observation about this Jeff team - it is still very young.   Of the top nine players from a minutes perspective, only two are seniors - Cherry and Sellew.  Not sure how that plays out but in the NESCAC senior laden teams always tend to play more effectively.

[80sCat]

Wesleyan hasn't been touched on much, so here's my analysis:

The team can't shoot the 3 ball. Seriously, there are several players shooting below 25% on it. All their points come on 2s.

The senior class is quite possibly the worst senior class the school has ever seen. They almost never see the floor, yet they are all captains. None of them have been useful in the slightest for giving them a needed boost.

There is serious potential to be a great team next year, but right now it seems they are a step away from that. Getting obliterated by Eastern CT (4-7) and Williams (6-5), is awful. Sure, great teams in general, but both are on down years, and they just can't be losses. The team hasn't shown any ability to compete in a big game yet.

Coach Reilly will have this figured out once the conference games start, do not sleep on this team

There's absolutely a chance they get hot behind Jordan James, but help from 3 point land is definitely needed. The team has talent, but haven't effectively used it yet. They could honestly finish anywhere from 3-10. That's just how the NESCAC works sometimes, though - no one is out on day 1!

[jumpshot]

Wesleyan beats the mammoths in an "instant classic" (according to the Wesleyan announcer) 79-77 after trailing by 14, despite the mammoths making 14 of 29 three-pointers (16 turnovers didn't help).