MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

The other thing with Robinson that doesn't make a lot of sense is that he's shooting 42% from 3 on 4 attempts a game--comfortably a career high (33% his first two years). He's shooting better from 3 than he is from 2, not totally uncommon in today's basketball, but definitely confusing seeing the best part of his game has been his ability to shoot off of the dribble. The pull-up jumpers aren't falling, at all.

He's also taking 2.5 less shots per game this year than last year. Having all of your top scorers back is a good thing, but the extra shots for Che, Sellew, and Day are evidently taking away from Robinson's scoring production and touches. But their offensive stats---field goal percentage and points per game, as a team, are marginally up across the board from last year, so it's clearly working overall on that side of the court.

And lastly, Robinson's 4.4 assists per game is a career high, and his 1.6 turnovers per game are a career low. He's improved as a facilitator, and has adapted to his teammate's off-season improvements. I would conclude that Robinson has been better than we are giving him credit for, and it is their dip defensively that is the primary cause for their struggles, not because Robinson isn't averaging 18 points per game.

[JEFFFAN]

I don't know what the impact would be but no one in their right mind is going to think that a 40 plus year coach who has won over 800 games isn't going to be more effective, in general, than a 27-year old coach who has never been a head coach before.   As noted previously, Aaron Toomey owes Amherst nothing - he is the GOAT in program history - and if Hixon wanted a year off, he probably earned that 20 years ago.   But in a good league, a tight league, there is not a doubt in my mind that Hixon would matter.

I do think that the analysis of their inside defense was spot on.  I attended the Williams game and the Jeff interior defense even with Sellew was pitiful.   They really don't have any power forwards on this team to play good interior defense.   

[Vandy74]

I don't know what the impact would be but no one in their right mind is going to think that a 40 plus year coach who has won over 800 games isn't going to be more effective, in general, than a 27-year old coach who has never been a head coach before.   As noted previously, Aaron Toomey owes Amherst nothing - he is the GOAT in program history - and if Hixon wanted a year off, he probably earned that 20 years ago.   But in a good league, a tight league, there is not a doubt in my mind that Hixon would matter.

Finally!  An ounce of common sense is applied to the equation.

[Colby Hoops]

I don't know what the impact would be but no one in their right mind is going to think that a 40 plus year coach who has won over 800 games isn't going to be more effective, in general, than a 27-year old coach who has never been a head coach before.   As noted previously, Aaron Toomey owes Amherst nothing - he is the GOAT in program history - and if Hixon wanted a year off, he probably earned that 20 years ago.   But in a good league, a tight league, there is not a doubt in my mind that Hixon would matter.

I do think that the analysis of their inside defense was spot on.  I attended the Williams game and the Jeff interior defense even with Sellew was pitiful.   They really don't have any power forwards on this team to play good interior defense.

Agreed. I just don't think replacing Toomey with Hixon solves all of Amherst's problems. I think personnel and individual performance are bigger factors than coaching.

[MiddWatcher]

I don't know what the impact would be but no one in their right mind is going to think that a 40 plus year coach who has won over 800 games isn't going to be more effective, in general, than a 27-year old coach who has never been a head coach before.   As noted previously, Aaron Toomey owes Amherst nothing - he is the GOAT in program history - and if Hixon wanted a year off, he probably earned that 20 years ago.   But in a good league, a tight league, there is not a doubt in my mind that Hixon would matter.

I do think that the analysis of their inside defense was spot on.  I attended the Williams game and the Jeff interior defense even with Sellew was pitiful.   They really don't have any power forwards on this team to play good interior defense.

Interesting. Amherst - Middlebury certainly was the best DIII game that I have seen Middlebury involved in this year. It was excellent and Amherst looked terrific. BUT - Midd had just lost its inside player; and neither Folger or Eastman is really a post - up kind of guy. Maybe that was a key ingredient as to why Midd just couldn't make a dent vs. Mammoths, in retrospect. More significantly, to Jefffan's point:  While Cherry leads the team in FG % defense against ( 24.1 % shooting vs. him - also leads NESCAC in that category ), Che's numbers defensively have been quite weak all year. Currently, 103 points given up in 108 possessions - 28th. percentile overrall with a 42% field goal percentage against. ( not very good ).  Looks like the numbers back up Jefffan's very astute eye read ). Amherst is an enigma - great talent, excellent statistical numbers, very imposing in so many respects .... but will have to win NESCAC to gain an NCAA berth. But will hold on to counting them out quite yet .... too many good players !

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm heading up to Vermont this week and will be at Middlebury for the Williams game.  I look forward to meeting any of you who happen to be there.  I've been told there's room at the media table, so you'll probably find me there!

[nescac1]

Where do you find stats, MiddWatcher, on defensive points allowed per possession?  That seems like some pretty deep dive stuff, didn't realize it was publicly available! 

I haven't seen enough of Che this year to have a perspective, but I've always been enormously impressed by him as a defender in the past.  He played Heskett and Hutcherson really tough, certainly, and those were two of the toughest guys to cover in the league (or really anywhere) the last few years.  Maybe he has more offensive responsibilities this year, taking away from his energy on D, but he always struck me as an elite defender.  As, for that matter, did Chery and Allen.  I figured Amherst would be OK without Schneider this year because those three guys are just SO tough on the perimeter.  But Toad makes a good point that Schneider's post presence (and to a lesser extent Bachmann, who was an underrated player at the 5 I thought) allowed those guys to take more chances, making them able to apply such intense ball pressure on every possession. 

All that being said, 11-5 is still pretty darn respectable for Amherst, especially considering they have had some key guys banged up.  I think (like Williams last year) they are a victim in some ways of incredibly high expectations heading into the season, so that every loss feels like a big shock.  Robinson's savvier with the ball then ever, but at least to my eye, he's not the same guy in terms of explosive finishing in the lane as he has been in the past.  If he can dial that part of his game up as the season goes along, Amherst can still certainly beat anyone. 

Turning back to Colby, Strahorn has done just a masterful job with this program over the past few seasons.  Colby can't realistically recruit the same kinds of big, athletic guys as the other NESCAC contenders.  But Strahorn has found real diamonds in the rough every year, and his players all seem to really improve over time, and the offensive system is very difficult to guard.  With mostly the same cast of key players (adding one critical piece per year, each of the last two years, of course), Colby has gone from 10-14 (1-9 in the league) to 11-13 (2-8 in league), to 17-8 (5-5 in league) to 15-0 (perfect so far in the league) over the past four seasons.  You can really see the benefits of guys playing big minutes early in their career together, and sticking together for 3-4 years, as Colby plays seemlessly as a unit (while also adding star frosh with mature games in back-to-back years who fit the team's needs perfectly).  Gives hope to every group of young players struggling to find their way in the league right now ... I loved Colby heading into the season, but even so, I would never have seen them rising to number 5 in the country!

[Colby Hoops]

Turning back to Colby, Strahorn has done just a masterful job with this program over the past few seasons.  Colby can't realistically recruit the same kinds of big, athletic guys as the other NESCAC contenders.  But Strahorn has found real diamonds in the rough every year, and his players all seem to really improve over time, and the offensive system is very difficult to guard.  With mostly the same cast of key players (adding one critical piece per year, each of the last two years, of course), Colby has gone from 10-14 (1-9 in the league) to 11-13 (2-8 in league), to 17-8 (5-5 in league) to 15-0 (perfect so far in the league) over the past four seasons.  You can really see the benefits of guys playing big minutes early in their career together, and sticking together for 3-4 years, as Colby plays seemlessly as a unit (while also adding star frosh with mature games in back-to-back years who fit the team's needs perfectly).  Gives hope to every group of young players struggling to find their way in the league right now ... I loved Colby heading into the season, but even so, I would never have seen them rising to number 5 in the country!

Interestingly, it kind of seemed like Colby was poised to do something similar in the 2012-2016 timeframe. Chris Hudnut, Patrick Stewart, Ryan Jann, Luke Westman and Sam Willson all played big minutes for a bad team as freshman and it seemed like as they became upperclassmen Colby would be poised to make a run to the top of the league. It never materialized, partially due to injuries to Hudnut and Stewart, partially that they didn't execute nearly as well as this team, and partially because the league was very strong those years. But there was a glimpse when Colby was 10-1 heading into league play in 2015-16 and seemed like they'd be a factor.

Not the time for this discussion yet, but it will be interesting to see if Strahorn can use this run as a way to take the program to another level. My pipe dream is that this is Colby as Middlebury in the mid-2000s and they can really become one of the elites. A new $250 million athletic facility with great hoops facilities opening over the summer should help in recruiting too...

[nescac1]

For anyone curious as to what $250 million can buy ... I've certainly never seen anything like this in D3!  To invest that much in athletics, you'd have to think reflects a total institutional buy-in ...

https://www.gocolbymules.com/video/Colby_Athletics_Center

Colby suffers some pretty significant losses to graduation.  But I have to think a four-man core of Tucker, Hannah, King and Tyson will at least keep Colby in the top half of the league, if a few of the rising sophomores are ready to step up into key supporting roles. 

[MiddWatcher]

Where do you find stats, MiddWatcher, on defensive points allowed per possession?  That seems like some pretty deep dive stuff, didn't realize it was publicly available! 

I haven't seen enough of Che this year to have a perspective, but I've always been enormously impressed by him as a defender in the past.  He played Heskett and Hutcherson really tough, certainly, and those were two of the toughest guys to cover in the league (or really anywhere) the last few years.  Maybe he has more offensive responsibilities this year, taking away from his energy on D, but he always struck me as an elite defender.  As, for that matter, did Chery and Allen.  I figured Amherst would be OK without Schneider this year because those three guys are just SO tough on the perimeter.  But Toad makes a good point that Schneider's post presence (and to a lesser extent Bachmann, who was an underrated player at the 5 I thought) allowed those guys to take more chances, making them able to apply such intense ball pressure on every possession. 

All that being said, 11-5 is still pretty darn respectable for Amherst, especially considering they have had some key guys banged up.  I think (like Williams last year) they are a victim in some ways of incredibly high expectations heading into the season, so that every loss feels like a big shock.  Robinson's savvier with the ball then ever, but at least to my eye, he's not the same guy in terms of explosive finishing in the lane as he has been in the past.  If he can dial that part of his game up as the season goes along, Amherst can still certainly beat anyone. 

Turning back to Colby, Strahorn has done just a masterful job with this program over the past few seasons.  Colby can't realistically recruit the same kinds of big, athletic guys as the other NESCAC contenders.  But Strahorn has found real diamonds in the rough every year, and his players all seem to really improve over time, and the offensive system is very difficult to guard.  With mostly the same cast of key players (adding one critical piece per year, each of the last two years, of course), Colby has gone from 10-14 (1-9 in the league) to 11-13 (2-8 in league), to 17-8 (5-5 in league) to 15-0 (perfect so far in the league) over the past four seasons.  You can really see the benefits of guys playing big minutes early in their career together, and sticking together for 3-4 years, as Colby plays seemlessly as a unit (while also adding star frosh with mature games in back-to-back years who fit the team's needs perfectly).  Gives hope to every group of young players struggling to find their way in the league right now ... I loved Colby heading into the season, but even so, I would never have seen them rising to number 5 in the country!

Kudos to nescac1, as always, comes up with great analysis, I enjoy his viewpoint a lot. I just wish there were more on this board who remember the ' glory days ' of Colby / Dick Whitmore, pre - NCAA tournament eligibility ..... Colby was the dominant one in NESCAC then. But times do change. Great to see a really nice person, and excellent coach, like Damian Strahorn have success. Hope they keep it up.

I would probably get myself in trouble ( I have a habit of that ), so, suffice to say that I am an old coach - with a password to a coaching site that offers a lot of stuff. Will leave it at that.  The "Field goal percentage defense " is a neat category, but can be impacted by game schedule as well as who the guys are actually matched up against that particular day, for sure. So the Top Ten is an intriguing listing of not so household names .... but interesting, nonetheless.  NESCAC currently has ten guys with FG% Against numbers of 29.5% or less .... ( in order ) Cherry ( Amherst ), Mortimer ( Bates ), Stoddard ( Williams ), Coyne ( Bates ), Baxter ( Bates ), Snoddy ( Bates ), Osarenren ( Hamilton ), Nwafor ( Conn ), Rucker ( Bowdoin ), DeLorenzo ( Middlebury ).    Minimum of 50 shots defended.  All of the rest of the players in the league having defended more than 50 shots are above 30.0%.

Like I said, an intriguing grouping. Some of the people one might expect to see, are not.  I would definitely say that Cherry at #1 is a very legitimate correlation. Shot Affects are a great thing to look at during a game; man, they are significant. I have mentioned before how using the hand opposite the shooter's hand is such a big weapon. Not rocket science.

Watched Amherst - Tufts game from Saturday this AM. That is a telling game. Again, would probably get in trouble for offering thoughts - but suffice to say that the Tufts' offensive design of a beautiful mix of the " old " ( motion principles with spot ups and skip passes ), and " new " vs. the "new " ( endless ball screens at the wing with resultant rolls and almost never a skip pass ) as primarily on display by Amherst ( and virtually everyone else in basketball for that matter ) offered a distinctive view into basketball as currently played.  ( yup, you can tell I am not a huge proponent of the way the game has gone in the past 5 years ). Kudos to Sheldon for a terrific combination of the two styles - and for enhancing his players through the many options they have. Just great. Amherst's best moments came when they free-lanced and players were allowed to play, IMO.  So, now I am in trouble...... But that group of Day, Robinson, Allen, Mobley and others .... playing " 90's Motion " would be very, very difficult to deal with I would hazard to guess.  But I will throw it out there for any discussion amongst the purists : )  Even still, Amherst punished Middlebury badly using the " New " versus the smaller Midd guys, so more power to them on that night. It worked well. 

[nescac1]

Thanks MiddWatcher, interesting stats.  Some of these do not surprise me (like Osarenren) and a few do (all those Bates guys).  It seems like Bates plays, it appears, some mean team defense ... perhaps (just guessing here) they are free to be more aggressive on the perimeter with a menacing shot blocker in the post.  Not shocked to see Stoddard for Williams on here.  He already blocks or alters quite a few jump shots with his length.  As he gets stronger and more experienced, he could be a real asset on the defensive end. 

[MiddWatcher]

Am looking forward to seeing Stoddard. He is at 25 % ! Outstanding for a frosh. " Bates guys" surprised me, too. Schedule may have helped there so far, a number of weaker DIII schools on schedule to this point. Will be interesting to see how it all factors out.

[Cards Fan]

Takes I have from this weekend (and last)...

1. Hamilton is in serious danger of falling out of relevance. A one point loss to Middlebury was fine. A close drop to Tufts was fine. Getting annihilated by Bates was not fine. 2-2 would sound quite a bit better than 1-3, and Hamilton finds themselves among the bottom of the NESCAC. It's not panic button time yet, but a loss to Amherst, who seems capable of beating and losing to any given team, could put them in a position to worry about their NESCAC tournament hopes. It's a long shot, but something to keep an eye on.

2. Conn College is a freebie, to every team. There is no way a NESCAC team will lose to Conn this year. They are steadily declining year by year, and this is the worst I have seen. Reminds me of Wesleyan before the Joe Reilly era. Watching Wesleyan go up by 8 points in a minute, and never drop below that margin, was hard to do. They seem lost at times, and really have no solid leadership on the court. They can be dropped from upset consideration almost entirely, pending a crazy scenario.

3. Though the negative side of Amherst has been touched on quite enough, it's a good note that despite the inconsistency, at times Amherst has shown the talent level of being a top tier talent in the league. There haven't been any ridiculously bad losses that they have shown. Sure, it's not a #1 seed year, but there's actually a lot of positive to ride on for Amherst, which has been ignored a lot. Losing to a rival little 3 team can happen any year, and losing to Tufts seems expected (see next point).

4. Tufts is elite. Tufts has been up and down for a few years, and this year is UP. A packed schedule proved to do them some good (it seems every year their SOS is near the top). They are absolutely in contention for the crown, and have solidified themselves as a potential Pool C team if they can hang on as well. When they're hot, they're hot. Also, I'm pretty sure this is Eric Savage's 10th year (at least) in college.

5. Williams is a threat, no matter how down they are. Williams record is awful, but it hasn't hindered them thus far in NESCAC play. They're going to battle with any team. It's safe to say they are never eliminated from the conversation, no matter what happens to them. It's definitely unfortunate to see, as a Cardinal fan, and interesting to see as a basketball fan in general.

6. The Cardinals have life. A win over Trinity put the Cards back in the middle of the pack for the NESCAC. Many posters on here had Wesleyan out of the NESCAC tournament pre season (which could still reign true). There is a lot of bad luck (losing back to back games on buzzer beaters really does kill the morale), but this weekend made a statement for them. All early season kinks have been worked out, and if they want to make a run at a championship, they're going to have to play some good basketball on the road.

7. Bowdoin is out of any type of conversation for the playoffs. It's strange that there was a time that Bowdoin seemed poised to be the Maine team to end the drought for the trio. Now, both Bates and Colby sit at the top of the standings, leaving the P Bears behind. At 5-10 overall, things seem gloomy. Perhaps they would seem better if the losses were closer, but they have not competed with a team with talent in the NESCAC thus far. Hoping for better things to come, as the team does have talent. Maybe I'll be proven wrong.

8. Bates is a more talented team than initially thought. One poster before the season stated something along the lines of "everyone else in the NESCAC competing for second place", as they believed Bates was the best D3 team they had ever watched. While that may be an overstatement, Bates has surprised to this point, taking down Wesleyan and Hamilton. They may be humbled soon against Tufts, but if the Bobcats can surprise, we may see a story unfolding with this team.

9. Colby is a special story to follow. The steady improvement, noted earlier by nescac1, is incredible. What a fantastic turnaround for the Mules. Regardless of how the rest of the season goes, what a fantastic year. The future looks bright for Mules, and they should be incredibly happy with the results of the early play.

10. Trinity is having a Trinity season. For the last few years, it seems that Trinity will go every year by winning the predictable ones, and losing the predictable ones. There hasn't been anything too negative for the Bantams, and there hasn't been anything too positive. They compete with any team, but eventually the result turns out as usually expected. I don't expect a run at the championship, but don't be surprised to see them in the tournament.

11. Middlebury finally has a reason to sweat. Until now, Middlebury had cruised to a 14-0 record. They weren't going to go undefeated, of course, but 2 NESCAC losses forces them to get out of cruise control and back in command. Nothing to worry about yet, and no real danger of falling out of the NCAAs, but there are many threats who would love to overtake Midd's spot.

No particular order on the teams.

[JEFFFAN]

As with most of us, I watch my alma mater and so my view is parochial, as such.   In watching Amherst get clocked inside against Williams, I wondered why they didn't shift into a zone periodically.  If for no other reason than to change it up, but in this case to also see if it made sense to force the Ephs to beat them from the outside.  I don't ever remember Amherst under Hixon switching into a zone either.   These are all smart kids ... what am I missing here?   

[nescac1]

Good thoughts, Cards fan!  With a new coach who has not yet had a chance to bring in any recruits, Conn has to get a pass for this year.  He was handed almost nothing to work with.  If the administration gives him support, in three years I think we will likely see a VERY different Conn team. 

And yeah, Savage is one of those guys who seems like he has been around for forever.  Although he will be a significant loss, Tufts figures to be even scarier next year, given that he is the only senior and the two talented frosh wings behind him (Thoerner and McLaren) should be ready to step in to that spot next year and more or less replace his production.