MBB: NESCAC

[Bucket]

I think Tufts deserves the top spot - beat MID head to head and they have better non league wins than Springfield.

Springfield could climb as they still play WPI and Babson again.

Tufts and Midd have not played yet. They play on Friday.

[SpringSt7]

For whatever it's worth, here is how Massey sees how the race for the final two NESCAC spots playing out with the obvious caveats:

-Massey is far from the be all and end all, just another way of looking at things, and as you are about to see, factors home court very heavily into its projections
-Massey cannot account for the injuries to both Colby (Jefferson, Weiner, King) and Bates (Greenhalgh, Sarr)
-Massey is not updated through the mid week games, which would add additional data points for Colby, Bates, and Bowdoin

Friday 2/14

Bates 66 at Williams 73
Wesleyan 71 at Colby 82
Conn College 66 at Hamilton 91

Saturday 2/15

Bates 72 at Middlebury 82
Trinity 82 at Hamilton 85

Sunday 2/16

Wesleyan 73 at Bowdoin 67

That would result in the following:

7. Hamilton (4-6)
? Wesleyan (3-7)
? Bowdoin (3-7)
? Bates (3-7)

With Hamilton being the 7 seed, and by virtue of the tiebreaker policies (found here: https://www.nescac.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/championship/information), the race for the 8 seed could potentially turn into chaos:

-Bates, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin would all be 1-1 against each other

-The next tiebreaker then, would go to the record against the top 4 teams. This would then hinge on where Trinity finishes, because Wesleyan's win over Trinity is the only win any of these three teams have against a top 4 team. Trinity has a tough away weekend of Amherst and Hamilton and who knows where they could finish. The following tiebreaker is record against "top 8 teams---including all teams at the 8th spot" which would, if being read correctly, also cancel out---all three teams would have 2 wins against the top 8 + ties, if all three teams are considered tied for 8th and Hamilton is 7th, it is just a fancy way of saying that they all beat Conn College.

-But if that is a wash, and if the next tiebreakers are being followed correctly, Wesleyan's win over Trinity would give them the 8th spot, because it would be the win against the highest seeded opponent, as the following tiebreaker would then be to compare common records against the 1 seed, the 2 seed, the 3 seed, etc., so on and so forth.

HOWEVER

If Hamilton loses to Trinity, which I believe is far more likely than the 59/41% split that Massey is giving it, and all 4 teams finish at 3-7, the standings would look like this, with the main tiebreaker being record against the 4 tied teams, in parentheses, followed by a head-to-head tiebreaker to determine the 7 and 8 seeding:

7. Bowdoin (2-1)
8. Bates (2-1)
9. Hamilton (1-2)
10. Wesleyan (1-2)

With the way the NESCAC tends to play out, there is almost no way that everything goes according to that plan, so surely this is all a moot point, but there is certainly a lot to play for, and it is pretty cool that just about every game except for probably Hamilton/Conn will factor heavily into the end result--but it seems that the games that will have the greatest impact on final seedings will be Trinity @ Hamilton on Saturday, and Wesleyan @ Bowdoin on Sunday, quite literally coming down to the final game of the season.

[lumbercat]

lumbercat, Strahorn is a Whitmore disciple, we should expect nothing less.

I guess I see your point but I disagree. I grew up in an adjacent city to Archbishop Williams HS where Whitmore and his father, also a great coach at Weymouth HS, were legendary. ......quite a coaching legacy there. Dick attended the private Catholic school in Braintree.

I followed Dick Whitmore's playing career at Bowdoin and the entire duration of his coaching career at Colby. He was tough on the zebras, no question, but he picked his spots and he made sure he was right before he really got on them. This guy Strahorn  just doesn't stop, incessant. Wound way too tight. Whitmore was composed, calculated and always in control. No comparison in my book.

Strahorn took a bad, dramatic T late in the Tufts game which was the final nail in the Mules coffin that day. You didn't see that from Whitmore.

That'll get me killed in Waterville but is not intended as a slam on the Mules. Strahorn has done a fantastic job with that team this year after struggles in his first several years after succeeding a legend.

[Cards Fan]

For whatever it's worth, here is how Massey sees how the race for the final two NESCAC spots playing out with the obvious caveats:

-Massey is far from the be all and end all, just another way of looking at things, and as you are about to see, factors home court very heavily into its projections
-Massey cannot account for the injuries to both Colby (Jefferson, Weiner, King) and Bates (Greenhalgh, Sarr)
-Massey is not updated through the mid week games, which would add additional data points for Colby, Bates, and Bowdoin

Friday 2/14

Bates 66 at Williams 73
Wesleyan 71 at Colby 82
Conn College 66 at Hamilton 91

Saturday 2/15

Bates 72 at Middlebury 82
Trinity 82 at Hamilton 85

Sunday 2/16

Wesleyan 73 at Bowdoin 67

That would result in the following:

7. Hamilton (4-6)
? Wesleyan (3-7)
? Bowdoin (3-7)
? Bates (3-7)

With Hamilton being the 7 seed, and by virtue of the tiebreaker policies (found here: https://www.nescac.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/championship/information), the race for the 8 seed could potentially turn into chaos:

-Bates, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin would all be 1-1 against each other

-The next tiebreaker then, would go to the record against the top 4 teams. This would then hinge on where Trinity finishes, because Wesleyan's win over Trinity is the only win any of these three teams have against a top 4 team. Trinity has a tough away weekend of Amherst and Hamilton and who knows where they could finish. The following tiebreaker is record against "top 8 teams---including all teams at the 8th spot" which would, if being read correctly, also cancel out---all three teams would have 2 wins against the top 8 + ties, if all three teams are considered tied for 8th and Hamilton is 7th, it is just a fancy way of saying that they all beat Conn College.

-But if that is a wash, and if the next tiebreakers are being followed correctly, Wesleyan's win over Trinity would give them the 8th spot, because it would be the win against the highest seeded opponent, as the following tiebreaker would then be to compare common records against the 1 seed, the 2 seed, the 3 seed, etc., so on and so forth.

HOWEVER

If Hamilton loses to Trinity, which I believe is far more likely than the 59/41% split that Massey is giving it, and all 4 teams finish at 3-7, the standings would look like this, with the main tiebreaker being record against the 4 tied teams, in parentheses, followed by a head-to-head tiebreaker to determine the 7 and 8 seeding:

7. Bowdoin (2-1)
8. Bates (2-1)
9. Hamilton (1-2)
10. Wesleyan (1-2)

With the way the NESCAC tends to play out, there is almost no way that everything goes according to that plan, so surely this is all a moot point, but there is certainly a lot to play for, and it is pretty cool that just about every game except for probably Hamilton/Conn will factor heavily into the end result--but it seems that the games that will have the greatest impact on final seedings will be Trinity @ Hamilton on Saturday, and Wesleyan @ Bowdoin on Sunday, quite literally coming down to the final game of the season.

Great rundown. Not too far off from a coin flip!

[Sticks11]

lumbercat, the T you are referencing in the Tufts game was when Jefferson got hammered right in front of the ref.  It was a blatantly obvious foul that wasn't called.  At that time, I'm sure frustration from how the game was going played a large part in Strahorn's outburst.  Also, the game was in the bag for Tufts at that point so it didn't play a role in the outcome.

I think anyone who ever played for Whit or watched him closely as you say would have a good chuckle at your characterization that he was composed.  Whit was the definition of a coach who was wound too tight and constantly over the officials. 

[lumbercat]

Sticks
I think Colby was down by 8 with about a minute and and half to play- maybe I'm mistaken on the detail but I thought that dashed any hopes of a possible comeback by an undefeated, phenomenal 3 ball shooting team.

In the years I watched him in game situations he was hard on the refs but not nearly as bad as Strahorn. I don't know what he was like behind the scenes but he was totally in control on the sidelines and very intense but he picked his spots much better than Strahorn.

[booyakasha]

Sticks
I think Colby was down by 8 with about a minute and and half to play- maybe I'm mistaken on the detail but I thought that dashed any hopes of a possible comeback by an undefeated, phenomenal 3 ball shooting team.

In the years I watched him in game situations he was hard on the refs but not nearly as bad as Strahorn. I don't know what he was like behind the scenes but he was totally in control on the sidelines and very intense but he picked his spots much better than Strahorn.

Strahorn is no more demonstrative than Furbush on the sidelines (who has more T's on the year and picked one up late in the Bates@Colby). You are grasping at straws here.

We can all agree that in comparison to Cosgrove, both are pretty mellow.

[lumbercat]

Are you really saying that Furbush is on the refs as much as Strahorn? Thats not accurate.
No straws, Ive watched Strahorn for 8 years.

BTW--There have been a couple of T's on Bates players this year, I think that is what you are seeing.

[nescac1]

The first regional rankings look fair to me. 

This ended up being the wrong Williams team to face a schedule pretty loaded with ranked teams: Atlantic #2, East #5, Northeast #s 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 (x2), 10, 11.  Other than the two wins vs. Amherst and the pending game vs. Tufts, Williams has lost all of those games (ugghh), accounting for 8 of their 11 losses.  Brutal. 

Folks, do NOT sleep on St. Joe's.  Gonzaga is an interesting comparison.  St. Joe's two losses came very early in the season, when the team's rotation was very different (no Jaecee and Powell had yet to get settled in as the starer).  Since Jaecee Martin (in my view their best player) joined the roster, they are 15-0, with all but two wins being by at least 13 points.  Yeah, the schedule is weak, but they are also blowing teams out, and do have some reasonable-quality wins on their resume (Trinity, before Martin, Williams, even in a down year still a talented team and I thought the Ephs played very well that night, Albertus Magnus, Bates). 

They are not very experienced, or very experienced together, as most of their top guys are new to the roster this season.  But man, purely talent-wise, I'd be surprised if anyone in D3 is clearly superior.  (If they stay together as a full group for another year, which seems unlikely given that some of these guys are clearly eyeing D1, they will be beyond loaded next season). 

Martin has to be the fastest point guard in D3, or at least in the top 2-3.  Delshawn Jackson is a legit number one scorer who is fearless, reminds me of Marcos Echevarria in how he carries himself.   Center Jordan Powell, while a bit undersized, has been out of his mind on the interior of late, in his last seven games, he's had the following shooting numbers: 14-15, 10-10, 9-9, 10-13, 5-6, 5-6, and on "off" night of 5-10!  He's also been rebounding and blocking the ball at a high rate.  He's really good.  The x-factor is Taelon Martin, a D1-level talent who had a strange high school career and I think played for a bunch of different schools.  He seems to really be coming on of late, and he's the kind of guy, while still a frosh, who could emerge seemingly out of nowhere with a massive game in the post-season.  Ryan O'Neil is a rock-solid role player, and they have some pretty good wings who come in off the bench as well.  I'll put that five man lineup against anyone ... they don't have a lot of outside shooting, kind of play an old-school style of penetrating hoops, and they don't have an elite post defender, so they have some weaknesses, but their strengths ... elite speed, athleticism, ball-handling and relentless play on both ends of the floor ... can be hard to overcome. 

[Bucket]

Are you really saying that Furbush is on the refs as much as Strahorn? Thats not accurate.
No straws, Ive watched Strahorn for 8 years.

I agree. That's loony tunes.

[Colby Hoops]

Kind of a pointless conversation, but I'll chime in. I played for Whitmore, and I can assure you that Strahorn is not in his league when it comes to getting on the refs. The Tufts game is Strahorn's only technical of the year (on an egregious missed call), and maybe one of 3 or 4 in his tenure at Colby. Whitmore averaged at least 2-3 per year in my time there, and based on what I've heard that was down a lot from the '90s.

I have plenty of great sideline Whitmore stories. Great coach, great person, wouldn't say he was always "totally in control" on the sidelines. And interestingly, both Whitmore and Strahorn are extremely laid back guys off the court.

I'd still put Cosgrove at Trinity at the top of the list in the league currently, although he's mellowed a lot from his first few years.

[booyakasha]

Are you really saying that Furbush is on the refs as much as Strahorn? Thats not accurate.
No straws, Ive watched Strahorn for 8 years.

BTW--There have been a couple of T's on Bates players this year, I think that is what you are seeing.

Agreed Colby Hoops - this is a bit pointless, but Bucket and Lumber seem to time and time again have it out for D and I think it is better to have the record straight.

Lumber, I've seen enough of Strahorn as well. Since Jan 1 alone, I've been live and in person for every game but MMA, Williams, and Husson. I've seen Damien heated exactly three times during that stretch:

First was at Bates - he was yelling at the officials about the items thrown onto the court from the Bates student section.

Second was at Tufts - covered earlier. Got a T late in the game (exact same way Furbursh got one Tuesday night... late in the game, stepped over the line at a missed call when the outcome was already decided).

Last time was against Bates, at Colby, where his angst was directed at the players for losing Coyne in transition for an open three.

Bucket - Jeff Brown is one of the more mild mannered in the league (spent some time with him - awesome guy). I can't say anything negative about his decorum. On the other hand, I can't take the opinion of an adult fan who has been ejected from a D3 collegiate game for comments directed at officials seriously. Sorry.

[booyakasha]

By the way, let me make it clear. I think both Strahorn and Furbush are perfectly fine on the sideline. OK by me to show a little emotion every now and then. I sure as hell did when I was playing.

[lumbercat]

Strahorn and Furbush pretty different styles. Plenty of emotion from Furbush but less time spent working the refs.

[JEFFFAN]

From www.si.com

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/02/13/duncan-robinson-miami-heat-nba-shooting