MBB: NESCAC

[Bucket]

A few other NESCAC thoughts:  Trinity seems like the most hard-to-figure team in the league right now.  The Bants, in their last eight games, suffered blow-out losses to Tufts and Hamilton, and needed a miracle to defeat Conn, but beat Midd twice (including a blow-out on Saturday), Williams, and Amherst, and hung 114 on Bates!  Crazy.  Clearly, Trinity can easily win the league.  They could also get destroyed by Tufts next weekend.   

If Amherst wins the league, NESCAC is very likely a four-bid league.  If Trinity wins the league, could NESCAC be a FIVE bid league this year?  It's certainly possible, especially if Springfield and St. Joe's each win their respective leagues. 

Looking at last week's regional rankings, Midd was first, so even after a loss, it seems like they are in, how much can they really fall?  Tufts and Colby probably each need one more win to be an absolute lock, but I think they are likely in regardless.  WPI lost two straight, including a bad loss to MIT, and they probably fall below Tufts and Colby unless they win their league.  If Amherst beats Colby, but then loses in the NESCAC final, they end up, I think, ahead of the WPI-Babson loser.  So, when all is said and done, if Trinity wins the NESCAC and Springfield the NEWMAC, the New England rankings could conceivably end up something like this: Springfield, Tufts, Middlebury, Colby, WPI/Babson winner, St. Joe's, Amherst ... under that scenario, certainly plausible that New England gets five Pool C bids, including four from NESCAC.  Wild.  Would St. Joe's stay ahead of Amherst if Amherst fails to win the league and St. Joe's loses to AMC in the GNAC final?  Hard to say ... a close call for sure.  A second game against Colby certainly helps Amherst's SOS!   

1   Middlebury   20-4   20-4
2   Springfield   20-3   20-3
3   WPI   19-4   19-4
4   Tufts   18-6   18-6
5   Colby   21-2   21-2
6   Babson   19-4   19-4
7   St. Joseph (Conn.)   19-2   21-2
8   Amherst   17-7   17-7
9   Brandeis   15-7   15-7
10   Albertus Magnus   18-4   18-4
11   New England College   18-6   18-6

For those on twitter, @D3bracketology has a very good and thorough breakdown on the prospective field:

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1231699776820961282

As of now, he has Colby and Midd as Pool C locks, Tufts very safe, and Amherst on the wrong side of the bubble.

He also takes a stab at predicting this week's regional rankings:

Northeast
1 Springfield
2 Colby
3 Middlebury
4 Tufts
5 WPI
6 St. Joseph CT
7 Babson
8 Amherst
9 Trinity CT
10 Brandeis
11 Nichols

[jayhawk]

 Hixon's coaching tree of former assistants is gaining success in D3hoops regional rankings
. Kevin Hopkins Muhlenburg,  Matt Goldsmith TCNJ,  Mark Gildride RPI,  Aaron Toomey Amherst, Luke Flockerzi Rochester.

[hoopsfan12A]

What a great slate of games this past weekend. Really looking forward to the next round and seeing what Colby can do. By the way, did anyone catch the Jumbocast of the Tufts game on Saturday? They had several camera angles and replays, I thought they did a really great job.

I'm thinking Midd comes out on top in the NESCAC, but I could see any of the 4 teams winning it all!

[Sticks11]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Midd won't be coming out on top in the NESCAC 

[nescac1]

Midd, which has the longest running streak of NCAA appearances for NESCAC teams (and will surely add another one this year), has strangely struggled at the end of NESCAC seasons the last few years ... finishing with three straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) in 2018, three straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) in 2019, and two straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) this year.  In a strange way, it's a testament to Coach Brown ... I don't think Midd has had any more talent, over that stretch, than the other top NESCAC teams.  But he has his team ready to play early in the season, and the level of stays high throughout, not a lot of "down" games from Midd, allowing Midd to really pile on the wins (which count just as much as late-season games, after all) whereas most teams have to kind of build up and take their lumps over the course of the season.  Or maybe it's just random statistical noise, who knows ... after all, Midd did win a few NESCAC titles just prior to this stretch of league-tourney struggles. 

[Cards Fan]

What a great slate of games this past weekend. Really looking forward to the next round and seeing what Colby can do. By the way, did anyone catch the Jumbocast of the Tufts game on Saturday? They had several camera angles and replays, I thought they did a really great job.

I'm thinking Midd comes out on top in the NESCAC, but I could see any of the 4 teams winning it all!

Bold prediction! I don't think anyone who got eliminated in the first round has ever won the league. It would be pretty crazy if this was the year.

All jokes aside, kudos to Bates for an incredible fight against the Mules. Or honestly, I should say the other way around. Colby showed so much fight to continue their season. They're definitely locked into the NCAAs I would say. What a fantastic job turning around the program. Times are changing in the NESCAC constantly. Imagine hearing just 2 seasons ago that the semifinals would entail Colby, Tufts, and Trinity - the 6th place, 7th place, and 10th place teams that year (none of which qualified for the semifinals.)

[lumbercat]

Geez- crickets from Panther country, not a whimper since Saturday afternoon. Cmon guys the NCAA's lie ahead.... gotta get that Panther mojo going. Rooting for the Snow Panthers!

[Cards Fan]

Midd, which has the longest running streak of NCAA appearances for NESCAC teams (and will surely add another one this year), has strangely struggled at the end of NESCAC seasons the last few years ... finishing with three straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) in 2018, three straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) in 2019, and two straight losses (including a quarterfinal loss) this year.  In a strange way, it's a testament to Coach Brown ... I don't think Midd has had any more talent, over that stretch, than the other top NESCAC teams.  But he has his team ready to play early in the season, and the level of stays high throughout, not a lot of "down" games from Midd, allowing Midd to really pile on the wins (which count just as much as late-season games, after all) whereas most teams have to kind of build up and take their lumps over the course of the season.  Or maybe it's just random statistical noise, who knows ... after all, Midd did win a few NESCAC titles just prior to this stretch of league-tourney struggles.

Not sure if you're a random stat lover like me, but your post about streaks made me think about streaks in the NESCAC. Wondering how rare a losing streak was for the NESCAC, I looked through everyone's schedules, and here's what I found for the last 5 years (2015-16 season to 2019-20 season)

Amherst – 1 streak (2018)

Bates – 9 streaks (2016 x3, 2017 x2, 2018 x2, 2019, 2020) (8 games in 2019)

Bowdoin – 6 streaks (2016 x2, 2017, 2018, 2020 x2)

Colby – 5 streaks (2016, 2017 x2, 2018 x2) (5 game streak 2017, 8 game streak in 2018)

Connecticut College – 12 streaks (2016, 2017 x2, 2018 x3, 2019 x3, 2020 x3) (7 game streak 2016, 9
game streak in 2018,12 game streak in 2020)

Hamilton – 3 streaks (2016 x2, 2020) (5 games 2016)

Middlebury – 2 streaks (2018,2019)

Trinity – 2 streaks (2018 x2)

Tufts – 2 streaks (2019 x2)

Wesleyan – 5 streaks (2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 x2) (5 games 2020)

Williams –2 streaks (2019, 2020)


The average amount of losing streaks of 3 + games for every team was 4.5 in the last 5 years (3.7 without Conn's inflating 12). Middlebury's only 2 streaks were in the closing stages of their season. Any streak that I did not include a number for at the end was either 3 or 4 games. Thanks for playing "Most randomly surprisingly interesting stat of the day!"

[Colby Hoops]

A few other NESCAC thoughts:  Trinity seems like the most hard-to-figure team in the league right now.  The Bants, in their last eight games, suffered blow-out losses to Tufts and Hamilton, and needed a miracle to defeat Conn, but beat Midd twice (including a blow-out on Saturday), Williams, and Amherst, and hung 114 on Bates!  Crazy.  Clearly, Trinity can easily win the league.  They could also get destroyed by Tufts next weekend.   

If Amherst wins the league, NESCAC is very likely a four-bid league.  If Trinity wins the league, could NESCAC be a FIVE bid league this year?  It's certainly possible, especially if Springfield and St. Joe's each win their respective leagues. 

Looking at last week's regional rankings, Midd was first, so even after a loss, it seems like they are in, how much can they really fall?  Tufts and Colby probably each need one more win to be an absolute lock, but I think they are likely in regardless.  WPI lost two straight, including a bad loss to MIT, and they probably fall below Tufts and Colby unless they win their league.  If Amherst beats Colby, but then loses in the NESCAC final, they end up, I think, ahead of the WPI-Babson loser.  So, when all is said and done, if Trinity wins the NESCAC and Springfield the NEWMAC, the New England rankings could conceivably end up something like this: Springfield, Tufts, Middlebury, Colby, WPI/Babson winner, St. Joe's, Amherst ... under that scenario, certainly plausible that New England gets five Pool C bids, including four from NESCAC.  Wild.  Would St. Joe's stay ahead of Amherst if Amherst fails to win the league and St. Joe's loses to AMC in the GNAC final?  Hard to say ... a close call for sure.  A second game against Colby certainly helps Amherst's SOS!   

1   Middlebury   20-4   20-4
2   Springfield   20-3   20-3
3   WPI   19-4   19-4
4   Tufts   18-6   18-6
5   Colby   21-2   21-2
6   Babson   19-4   19-4
7   St. Joseph (Conn.)   19-2   21-2
8   Amherst   17-7   17-7
9   Brandeis   15-7   15-7
10   Albertus Magnus   18-4   18-4
11   New England College   18-6   18-6

For those on twitter, @D3bracketology has a very good and thorough breakdown on the prospective field:

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1231699776820961282

As of now, he has Colby and Midd as Pool C locks, Tufts very safe, and Amherst on the wrong side of the bubble.

He also takes a stab at predicting this week's regional rankings:

Northeast
1 Springfield
2 Colby
3 Middlebury
4 Tufts
5 WPI
6 St. Joseph CT
7 Babson
8 Amherst
9 Trinity CT
10 Brandeis
11 Nichols

This week Colby will be getting credit for vRROs against Ramapo and New England College, which is why they may jump Tufts in the regional rankings. But, Ramapo lost, and are very unlikely to be regionally ranked this week, and New England College is very borderline. So, next week, Colby will likely drop again, unless they beat Amherst. Colby could end with a great record, a middling SOS, and a 1-3 record against regionally ranked opponents.

Colby should be safe regardless, but if there were a lot of upsets, there's still a small chance they might not be in, as crazy as that seems.

[SpringSt7]

In case any one was wondering, and because I was curious, the only players to earn NESCAC Player of the Week honors as freshmen since 2010, spanning 129 weeks:

Aaron Toomey (x2), Duncan Robinson (x2), Jack Simonds, and now, Will King.


Also, a random quirk----no team had had 3 players named POTW in any given season since 2001, the first year the NESCAC website began tracking the awards (although I cannot promise that my skim through the NESCAC archives was the most thorough)---and now, in the last three seasons, a different team has had 4 each--Colby (King, Tyson, Jefferson (x2), Hanna), Amherst (Robinson, Schneider, Che, Sellew), and Williams (Scadlock, Casey, Heskett, Greenman).

Some positive foreshadowing for the Mules heading into the championship weekend, perhaps.

[amh63]

The latest posts have been related to "statistics", the prime element in all major sports today.  Shades of the movie Moneyball", where stats were used to improve a pro baseball team.
Amherst had a great WBB player that wanted to study statistics in grad school and work for a pro team.  Spoke to her father at a game.  Her father, a MIT grad, spoke about stat courses at MIT...where I took such courses in grad school.  What I learned, I have forgot.
Am in Florida now with 80 degree weather.  Will be in the Raleigh/Durham area later in the week.  Will catch the Colby/Amherst game on line and maybe catch a live ACC game...if possible.
May the best team with the best statistics win this Sat.

[NEhoops]

The Colby/Bates game seems like an instant classic. Impressive effort by the both sides, particularly the seniors. This rivalry will continue to be competitive, and I’m excited to see the continued development of the freshmen – King, Baxter, Sarr, Iwowo and the sophomore Tyson. I have no idea why Jefferson stepped on the floor on Saturday. Neither himself or Colby gained anything from it and it could have very likely setback his recovery. I hope he is 100% for this weekend.

As stated by Jayhawk, hats off to Mark Gildride, former Amherst assistant and Bowdoin alum – yes, he’s Tim’s son – for leading RPI into the Top 25 and to a 20-win season for the first-time school history (I think). Definitely a face we could see on the NESCAC sidelines someday.   

nescac1, I agree that Trinity has been very up and down this season. Unlike in years past when they didn’t shoot the ball very well, they could still grind out wins. This year when that happens, they get blown out. 

The late season struggles for Middlebury are very interesting. Not a lot of momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. I think the play of Bosco and Folger are key to them having success in the postseason, in support of Farrell and Eastman. 

I don’t see any teams outside of the NESCAC or NEWMAC, including St. Joseph (CT), getting an at-large bid. But I could still see them, Nichols and New England College (assuming they all get automatic bids) winning a game in the tournament. 

A win for Amherst on Saturday would make things interesting for their chances as well – that would give them wins over arguably the top three teams in the region. 

[SpringSt7]

I would argue Amherst already has wins over the top 3 teams in the region, I'm assuming you could be referring to what the regional rankings look like/forecasting a potential Middlebury slide, but they already have wins over Springfield, Middlebury, and Colby. The only scalp they're missing is Tufts, which would come with a NESCAC title and an automatic berth.

One additional bit of information to consider if Amherst makes it to the NESCAC championship: There haven't been a lot of instances recently in which the people who know what they are talking about get it wrong when it comes to forecasting what certain teams need to do to make the tournament. The only real bubble cases in the last few years in the NESCAC were last year's Middlebury team (in), the 2017-18 Amherst team, which we were all in consensus in saying they needed to beat Wesleyan and make it to the NESCAC Championship for a bid, and the 2016-17 Williams and Wesleyan teams, when we were in agreement that Williams also needed to appear in the title game for a bid, which they got.

When it comes to teams needing wins to get in, every time they get them, they seem to make it. Something to consider in light of Amherst's chances this weekend.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Week 3 men's regional rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-third

[NEhoops]

Those seem inaccurate, some of the teams don't match up with the appropriate record.