MBB: NESCAC

[P'bearfan]

Some recruiting updates. Really impressive class from Marlon Sears. Also, Berkshire is turning into a destination for NESCAC's as they sent six kids to NESCAC's in the past two years with three to Amherst alone. Really impressive stuff.

Amherst:

Christopher Hammond, 6'6 W, Campbell Hall (CA)
Drew Martin, 6'7 W, Rivers School
Giovanni Tam, 6'10 C, Cushing Academy, #38 in MA
Charlie Randall, 7'0 F Berkshire School, #20 in MA, #56 in New England

Bowdoin:

Alex Halpern, 6'0 G, NMH
Jaden Hill, 5'7 PG, Belmont Hill
Nolan Bessire, 6-9, PF, Montgomery HS, CA
Kevin Reeves, 6-7, PF, Columbia Academy, OH

Colby:

Miles Drake, 6'1 G, Darien HS
Max Poulton, 6'4 G, Rivers School, #37 in MA

Hamilton:

Yashiya Crespin, 6'5 PG, Grace Christian (Raleigh NC)
Garret Keyhani, 6'8 F, Juniperro Serra (CA)

Middlebury:

Edward Witherington, 6'6 F, Fairhope H.S. (AL)
Jackson McKersie, 6'8 F, Dexter Southfield (MA)
Mark Newell, 6'5 F, St. Sebastian
Tristan Joseph, 6'2 G, Brunswick School
Evan Flaks, 5'9 PG, Taft School

Trinity:

Trevor McDonald, 6'5 G, Canterbury School
Drew Herer, 6'3 G, Beaver Country Day
Henry Vetter, 6'3 G, Canterbury School

Tufts:

Josh Bernstein, 6'10 C, Berkshire School
James Morakis, 6'3 G, Salisbury School, #40 in CT
Scott Gyimesi, 6'5 F, Rumson Fair-Haven (NJ)

Wesleyan:

Alex Justh, 6'3 G, Berkshire School

Williams:

Ben McGraw, 6'3 G, Bolles (FL)
Alex Lee, 6'2 G, Clear Lake (TX)

Good to see Bowdoin recruiting players who are 6-7, and 6-9. The team needs that size.  Also, great to see Coach Lloyd recruiting outside the NE / Mid-Atlantic. 

[nescac1]

As of now (huge knock on wood) we finally have a full slate of NESCAC games.  Will we have close to a full slate of players?
Who knows!  Some things to watch tonight:

Tufts at Hamilton -- will Tufts have Dieterle or Carson Cohen back?  Will Brennan Morris (a career 45 percent 3 point shooter who is at 23 percent this year) finally get it going?  Either way, I think they have way too much for Hamilton, which is struggling to score right now in a major way (averaging under 60 ppg over the last three game).  Tufts-Amherst looms as a huge game on Saturday, certainly the game of the weekend. 

Williams at Bowdoin -- Williams is the far more talented team, but for whatever reason Williams really struggles at Bowdoin (four straight losses, including in 2017 and 2019, years when Williams made the final four and the elite 8, respectively).  The Ephs can't afford to make it five in a row. 

Bates at Amherst -- Bates appears absolutely decimated by injury and/or COVID, with Primer, McCormick, Iwowo, Snoddy and Sarr all missing the recent Wesleyan game.  I think Bates has enough talent, if it can ever get its full roster together for a few weeks, to be frisky and pull an upset or two, perhaps the most athletic overall team in the league.  But this will be a tough one to pull out. 

Middlebury at Colby -- two teams heading in opposite directions.  Midd is rolling while Colby lost to Conn and Mitchell (ouch) this week.  Colby needs at least a split this weekend in the worst way and while clearly a far cry from last year's squad, it has enough talent to make that happen.  For Midd, can Sobel and Stevens play at an elite level basically every game?  That's what they need to keep winning, but so far, it has mostly worked. 

Trinity at Wesleyan -- two more teams who were missing loads of key guys the last time they played (Peek, Jordan James, DeLollo and Walker for Wesleyan, Mola, Otoo, Redd and Dana Smith for Trinity).  If both teams are at roughly full strength, I like Wesleyan by around 8-10 points, but who knows who will actually take the court ...

[SpringSt7]

Weird stat---the only NESCAC gym Kevin App has not won in as head coach is Morrell Gymnasium.

[Colby Hoops]

Middlebury at Colby -- two teams heading in opposite directions.  Midd is rolling while Colby lost to Conn and Mitchell (ouch) this week.  Colby needs at least a split this weekend in the worst way and while clearly a far cry from last year's squad, it has enough talent to make that happen. 

Been pretty much a worst case scenario season for Colby to this point. Very much looking like a team that will miss the Nescac tournament unless they really turn things around. The defense had actually been pretty solid until recently -- seems like the struggles on offense are carrying over to that end as well.

[toad22]

I have been to Bowdoin many times to watch the Ephs play the Polar Bears. I have seen very few wins for Williams. By far the hardest place for them to play. I can't watch in person this year. Maybe it was my presence that did them in. If that is true, Williams is in for a great night!

[SpringSt7]

Ephs go on a 7-0 run in the last 90 seconds to go up 2 at half at Bowdoin. They don't necesarrily look lethargic but they certainly don't look like they exploded off the bus with unmatched energy either. James McGowan has 11 points---he is the exact type of short and quick guard that has historically given the App era Ephs fits---reminds me of a poor man's Jack Farrell. Other than they have been fine defensively but haven't been totally in sync offensively or able to get much easy. Would be nice to see them open up the second half with some fire and build a lead.

[SpringSt7]

Williams pulls away in a big way to grab a long awaited win in Brunswick, 82-53. For the Ephs the POTG was Cole Prowitt-Smith who cruised to 16-5-4 with just 1 turnover, something that will go a long way to his progression as the key guy for this team. It was a really impressively balanced team effort for the Ephs though, as they got 10 guys 14 minutes or more and 4 guys in double digits, including a fun career high 10 points for FY G Evan Glatzer who has burst into the rotation as of late, he went 4-4 from the field. Another guy to watch for this group.

A big chance to go to 3-1 tomorrow @ Colby, who has the firepower to beat anyone, especially at home. A good start in league play is always important but it could be even more important in this weird year when COVID can mess up the schedule at any point (although we are definitely trending in the right direction). Have to get the wins when you can get them.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I watched most of the Tufts-Hamilton game.  Jumbos appeared to be down a head coach and four of their top six players.  Looked very out of sorts in the first half and rallied to only be down 14.  They made a real valiant effort in the second to get within three with six minutes remaining, but they ran out of steam.  I still think they're pretty darn good.  For their sake, lets hope they get back to full strength soon.  At this rate they're going to be a really terrible matchup for the #1 some tourney time.

[nescac1]

Are you moving them into your top ten, then, Ryan ?  I know Tufts was down some key guys but Hamilton is going to be a bottom three team in Nescac this year so missing guys or not it's not a spectacular loss. 

Speaking of polls, time for Midd to start getting some love at the bottom of the top 25, certainly if three Nescac teams are getting votes, they deserve to be the third (it's close vs Amherst but they did win the head-to-head and have one fewer loss).  Sobel is a first team all-American at this rate and Stevens a leading contender for national ROY.  The role guys do exactly what they need to do and nothing more.  The team still lacks depth but they play to their strengths, not the most talented team in the league but the one with the most consistent identity. 

[Old Guy]

This was Midd's best win, I think, 81-66 over Colby in Waterville, very consistent play. Midd was up six at the half and extended it throughout the second. Confident basketball throughout. Colby has players (Hanna, Tyson) and a big guy who can shoot the three, forcing Sobel to play him on the perimeter. I wondered if Midd's young team could play on the road. Yes, there are no fans, but there's the long bus ride, disruption of routine, strange gym.

Sobel was terrific, very much in control: 28 Points (13-18), 16 rebounds (8 offensive), 3 blocks. Love to watch him at the defensive end, the boss, discourages players to enter the paint. Stevens drew a crowd, but ended up with 18 efficient points (three deep 3s, 3-3 from the line, natch). Osher got his 14. Bobbett had zero TOs in 31 minutes. After getting 0 points against Hamilton, Middlebury's bench had 18 today. Their job has generally been "do no harm" (play D, don't turn it over). Charley Moore loves to go to the hoop, had 8 points in 16 minutes, and frontcourtmen Zodda and Carlson had 4 each. On to Bowdoin for the afternoon game and see what the Polar Bears have after getting blistered by the Ephs. This was one of my favorite hoop weekends year after every other year. Sad not to be there with Maine pals.

Watched the last five minutes of the Bates-Amherst game. Bates was up 11 but Amherst finished with an 18-2 run to win by five. Bates looked at the score, realized they were at Lafrak, and just unraveled. Would have been a nice win for the Bobcats.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Are you moving them into your top ten, then, Ryan ?  I know Tufts was down some key guys but Hamilton is going to be a bottom three team in Nescac this year so missing guys or not it's not a spectacular loss.

I won't know for sure until I go through all the teams tomorrow, but I wouldn't be opposed to voting for them. I really didn't like the way they came out. Maybe it was just the nerves of the first conference game, but Rogers looked pretty tentative early. He got almost all his numbers in the first ten minutes of the second half, which is not what you like to see.  I would love to catch them against a good team, at full strength.

With the shaky performance Amherst put in yesterday (2022 has been a shooting slump from hell for Day), Midd might be the NESCAC team I have the most confidence in right now.

[Colby Hoops]

Agree with OG's comments on the Midd-Colby game. Sobel is unstoppable right now, and Stevens is a scorer with a capital S.

Colby put up a decent fight in the first half, but they've been without Will King the past two games with an apparent injury.

Also, still no Sam Peek for Wesleyan it seems.

[nescac1]

It's so hard to evaluate NESCAC right now with SO many guys in and out of lineups.  Peek is obviously a huge loss for Wesleyan if he's out for any reason other than COVID protocols (which seems most likely given how many guys Wesleyan has had in and out of lineup lately).  King, even if he hasn't made a huge leap forward as a scorer for Colby this year, is so important to everything they do, he is the guy who has to create a lot of offense on that team.  Donald Jorden is quietly having a great year for Trinity so his absence right now is huge, too.  Tufts, obviously, dealing with lots of guards missing. 

I'm not sure who the NESCAC team I have the most confidence in either (other than, it's certainly not Tufts!).  The case for and against the top four candidates:

Wesleyan - certainly the most impressive overall results of anyone in the league.  The crushing of WPI is certainly the best non-league win of any NESCAC team this year.  Sam Peek is probably the runner-up to Sobel for POY so far this year, when he has it going (like against Amherst) he is as tough to stop one-on-one as anyone in NESCAC.  He and Maccoux are the best two-way forward pair in the league and I don't think it's close.  Frosh PG Johnson has been impressive and has a lot of room to keep growing.  Big, athletic, quick, strong, experienced, deep can defend.  The case against -- Williams owned them for the last 25 minutes of that game at Wesleyan.  Peek being out is a HUGE concern so hopefully it's illness, not injury.  Peek is the only guy I trust to consistently get his own shot, and finish.  Their shooters can be very streaky. 

Williams - the deepest reservoir of talent in the league.  When they have their A plus game going, like in the second half vs. Wesleyan and the second half last night, no one in the league can hang with them; definitely the most upside of any NESCAC team.  So much length and athletic ability 1-10, the defense can absolutely shut teams down (57, 60, 63, 53, 61, 45, 73, 53 points allowed in recent games, and the 73 was in a game in which really they played as poorly as they possibly could on D).  By far the best outside shooting team in NESCAC.  They have 4-5 guys who can REALLY get it going on offense, more legit scorers than anyone else in the league.  The three frosh in the rotation are already looking good but can be so much more impactful.  The case against - relying heavily on three frosh and four sophomores, and it shows at times. The team can get out of sync and the offense can look stagnant and ugly for a 5-10 minute stretch, with a lot of forced shots and some really cryptic turnovers.  Way too many turnovers keep the scoring numbers mediocre despite excellent shooting.  As usual for Williams, not a lot of perimeter quickness so have to rely on spacing, cutting, passing and post play.  Not really clear what the pecking order on the team is yet. 

Middlebury -- Everyone on the team understands his role perfectly.  Sobel has been an absolute monster, seems like no one can stop him inside, and a great rim protector to boot.  And a good passer so risky to collapse on him.  Always nice to have the best guy in the floor in nearly every game you play.  Stevens is incredibly poised for a frosh and can get his own shot and convert with high efficiency.  Noah Osher is just rock solid with an old-school game. Those three guys seem to bring it every single game.  Role players are much less talented, but all seem to make the plays they need to make.  Jeff Brown's coaching certainly gives them an advantage.  A young team that seems to have improved a lot over the course of the season.  The case against - because they aren't deep in talent, teams that are mediocre can hang around with them, so I expect they will suffer an upset or two.  Relying so heavily on their starting unit is dangerous in a year like this -- the top five guys have missed only one game between them, combined.  Outside of Stevens the outside shooting is very poor (he has half of their three point makes on the season), making it hard to come back from a big deficit.  Sobel can get into foul trouble and when he does it's going to be a problem in a big game. 

Amherst -- Robinson and Day are two of the best guards in the league.  They start two fifth-year and one fourth-year senior on the perimeter, and those guys have a long history of making clutch plays down the stretch of big games; they certainly came up clutch in tight games vs. Williams and Bates.  Absolutely massive (and unusual) twin tower look up front that is tricky to deal with on both ends.  Very quick on the perimeter with great rim protection, makes them a bear to score against.  Just starting to get healthy now with the potential to add two more key players back to the rotation later in the winter.  Two of their losses were without Robinson and the third in his first game back when he played poorly.  The case against -- a lot of big margins of victory against very bad teams skews their stats a bit.  Lots of guys in and out of the lineup all year, can they get and stay healthy?  Their outside shooting other than Garrett Day is pretty abysmal and Day has been in a shooting slump.  Their big guys don't have any perimeter game at all.  Much less talented on the wing than past Amherst teams, Sam Peek absolutely murdered them for example. 

As we've seen, the results among these four teams have been and will continue to be unpredictable.  All of them are very good, but certainly flawed, teams.  Williams, Amherst and Wesleyan each beat the other on the road, for example.  I think all four could win the league and I bet we see at least two of them, more likely at least three, in the NCAA tourney. 

[Bucket]

Are you moving them into your top ten, then, Ryan ?  I know Tufts was down some key guys but Hamilton is going to be a bottom three team in Nescac this year so missing guys or not it's not a spectacular loss.

I won't know for sure until I go through all the teams tomorrow, but I wouldn't be opposed to voting for them. I really didn't like the way they came out. Maybe it was just the nerves of the first conference game, but Rogers looked pretty tentative early. He got almost all his numbers in the first ten minutes of the second half, which is not what you like to see.  I would love to catch them against a good team, at full strength.

The idea of basing a team on what they would be full-strength—making what/if projections on a potential full strength team—is folly in this year with massive Covid disruptions. The teams are what they are on any given night. And at some point, one needs to rely on the old Parcell's saw: "You are what your record says you are."

Tufts is 4-8.

[maineman]

On to Bowdoin for the afternoon game and see what the Polar Bears have after getting blistered by the Ephs. This was one of my favorite hoop weekends year after every other year. Sad not to be there with Maine pals.

This could be a trap game for Midd if they come in overconfident.  I hope they don't because when assume you'll win, bad things happen.