MBB: NESCAC

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Watching Amherst-Williams right now.  The 'Amsters look terrible - revolving door defense and some dysfunctional offense.  I hope it gets better in the second half.  Just not fun to watch right now.

[jumpshot]

Williams with good defense, unselfish play, and poise downs amHerst at amHerst 73-65. lj's only in-game adjustment is giving the ball to Robinson as much as possible. Ephs' Coach App is getting the most from all his players, who get better and learn from each game. Knows the value of culture and chemistry ...Good job by all involved.

[nescac1]

Wasn't always pretty as these second Amherst-Williams games often tend to be, a real defensive slug fest, but the Ephs pull out a big road win 60-54.  The biggest difference in this game was that the Ephs were very disciplined on defense and almost totally shut the Amherst offense down for much of the game. Many of the Amherst points seems to come off second-chance reset sort of possessions where the ball bounced out to an open guy.  In the half court, on first possessions, Amherst could do very little.  The Amherst defense was almost as good, both teams are just big, tough and play really hard.  Ephs also missed a fair number of shots that are certainly makeable for them to help the Amherst cause, not the Ephs' best offensive day for sure.

For Williams, Nate Karren was spectacular. Scherer is very tough on the inside but Nate has a mismatch on the perimeter and definitely exploited it.  He's so tough as a 6'9 guy who can score as effectively inside the arc as out.  17-7-3-1-1, and three huge triples.  The rest of the Ephs really had tough days offensively, the shots were not falling in part due to the great interior defense played by Amherst, but the Ephs also missed some good looks from 3.  Cole Prowitt-Smith had a really rough first 3/4 of the game but came up huge down the stretch, hitting the shot of the game, a heavily contested baseline midrange jumper as the shot clock was about to expire that effectively iced the game.  An incredibly high-degree-of-difficulty shot.

For Amherst, Scherer, Helmke, and Grant Robinson were all really good today.  Scherer is so massive inside, with such a huge reach, that he causes a lot of problems inside the paint on both ends.  He keeps a lot of plays alive battling on the offensive glass.  Helmke seems to be coming on as a shooter for Amherst.  Robinson was Robinson, he always kills Williams and Eph fans will not miss him. Although Garrett Day scored efficiently, most of his points were scored after the game was basically decided, in the last 30 seconds.  He was curiously quiet the rest of the game and I was surprised Amherst didn't try to get him more touches.  Credit to Spencer Spivy who played great D on him, he has improved so much as a defender since his first year.  Brandon Arnold and Marc Taylor were huge off the bench in the first half for Williams, both making some key plays in limited minutes. 

Great win for Williams sets up a huge game at Middlebury on Saturday.  If Midd wins they are a Wesleyan win away from probably locking down the top seed in the NESCAC tourney, they would then HAVE to be a top 25 team, which would be an incredible accomplishment for a team that graduated its top six players (or 6/7 if you want to count Sobel as a returnee).  If Williams wins, they can start feeling VERY good about their Pool C chances and will be in great shape for a home game in the NESCAC tourney.  Amherst is I think knocked out of realistic Pool C contention with this one.  They are gonna need to win the NESCAC tourney to make it to the dance this year.  They certainly could! 

[jayhawk]

In both Tufts and the game today against Williams, the defense was not there for Amherst
Somewhat sloppy play by Amherst
surprised the game was as close as it was

[toad22]

Nice win for the Ephs. An ugly win, but a nice win. Nate Karen's outside shooting made a big difference.

[Painter66]

This really sets up a big game at Williams on Saturday. As an old Midd player and watcher, I did not think this would happen this year. Williams has a ton more depth, defense, and maybe 3 point shooting. But every team has to deal with Sobel, Stevens, Osher, and Brennan playing the whole game, so we will see how it all plays out. It is predictable young guys that will be out there every minute vs. the virtual all-star team. Would love to be there on Saturday as this game has some big implications. Let's just enjoy one more Midd/Williams battle.

[nescac1]

One more key stat for Williams from Amherst was only 8 turnovers - in a game where Williams struggled a bit to find its shot, it was critical to limit mistakes, which it did.  I still think sometimes Williams tries to make one pass too many, trying to thread the needle with a nearly impossible pass in the lane instead of guys just stopping and popping for a decent enough mid-range look.  But I'd rather the team be too unselfish than not enough, certainly.  Overall, though, if Williams plays offense like it did most of the game (other than the last few minutes of the first half, which was pretty rough) vs. Amherst, it will score plenty given the number of pretty good looks that didn't fall last night. 

Lots of great story lines in Midd vs. Williams.  This should be a great battle between the best player in NESCAC, Sobel, and the second-best center in NESCAC, Nate Karren.  Nate's stats are solid albeit fairly modest overall, but he really seems to bring it in the biggest games.  In the three Little Three games, he averaged 20-5-3 on incredible shooting stats - 65/73/75.  Those were games that the rest of the team was struggling to hit shots so his 8 triples (8 of only 10 on the season!) in those games were absolutely massive shots for the Ephs.  Neither Williams not Middlebury can afford to have their centers get into foul trouble, so it will be interesting to see how they deal with one another other on defense. 

Sam Stevens has been a problem for nearly everyone he's faced, but Jovan Jones when locked in (like he was against Sam Peek) can cause trouble for big wings like Stevens.  Should be a very fun match-up to watch.  On the other end, Jaden Bobbett (I expect) guarding Cole Prowitt-Smith will be a fun match-up as well.  Bobbett is a tough defender and like Cole a big, physical sort of guard. 

Noah Osher has been good all year but on absolute fire over the last few games.  He needs to continue scoring well to take the pressure off Stevens and Sobel.  The guys who will be guarding him, I expect Spivy and Stoddard, will have a huge size advantage, so it will be interesting to see if he can shoot it as effectively over the Ephs' long-armed guards.

As for Midd, it needs to get at least some production out of its bench guys.  The Eph D is too good to expect its big three to all go off, especially since all will be guarded by good defenders.  The Williams second unit averages 22 points per game.  The Midd bench squad only averages about 10.  If Midd loses the second-unit battle badly, it will be tough for it to pull this game out.  I think Roughley could be a key player of the bench for the Ephs in this one, I like his potential match-ups.  Charlie Moore needs to continue playing well for Midd.  Another key for Midd is second chance opportunities.  The Ephs need to keep Sobel and Brennan off the offensive glass to keep Midd from getting many easy looks off restarts, but that is easier said than done.     

Midd has been fairly dominant over Williams of late, the last Eph win coming in the Elite 8 wayyyy back in 2017.  The last two Midd wins were pretty dominant performances, to boot.  Does Jeff Brown simply have the Ephs' numbers?  We'll find out in two days!

[Colby Hoops]

A few random thoughts from the Williams-Amherst game:

• Garrett Day only played 23 min? That seemed a little strange. I understand playing Robinson, Day and Reynolds together can be tough, but just don't see how Day can play less than 30 in a big game like that.
• Related to that, Canin Reynolds is lightning quick and I think will be a very good player eventually, but he's really struggling shooting the ball and his lack of size can be a challenge defensively. Certainly don't think it makes sense for his minutes to impact Day's.
• Nate Karren has improved a ton, obviously in better shape, more assertive as a scorer, etc. But one big change is his shooting -- he was 2/28 from three as a freshman. His volume hasn't increased a ton but he's shooting 53% this year! Being able to knock those down provides so much more spacing for Williams. Should be a big key this weekend against Sobel. Nate was only 2/6 inside the three point line last night against Scherer and crew, and Sobel is even more of a challenge so I don't think Williams can expect to score effectively on his post ups.
• Spivy's career trajectory has been so interesting. Came in with expectations as a big time scorer/shooter, but that's almost the least important part of his game now. He's such a steadying presence for the Ephs, particularly when CPS can occasionally get a bit frenetic. Spivy is an excellent defender and capable ballhandler -- the one guy who App trusts to play the most minutes in every big game.

[SpringSt7]

But every team has to deal with Sobel, Stevens, Osher, and Brennan playing the whole game, so we will see how it all plays out. It is predictable young guys that will be out there every minute vs. the virtual all-star team.

Let's pump the brakes on making this out to be some David vs. Goliath matchup for whatever reason? Middlebury is 14-2 and undefeated in the league. They haven't lost to Williams in 5 years, and this Williams team is built on freshmen and sophomores collectively going through their first year of being seriously relied on to produce. Definitely not going to paint this as a big upset.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

But every team has to deal with Sobel, Stevens, Osher, and Brennan playing the whole game, so we will see how it all plays out. It is predictable young guys that will be out there every minute vs. the virtual all-star team.

Let's pump the brakes on making this out to be some David vs. Goliath matchup for whatever reason? Middlebury is 14-2 and undefeated in the league. They haven't lost to Williams in 5 years, and this Williams team is built on freshmen and sophomores collectively going through their first year of being seriously relied on to produce. Definitely not going to paint this as a big upset.

I'd pick Midd to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't.  Seems like the definition of an even matchup to me.  As with most Middlebury games, it'll depend on how well Middlebury manages Sobel's foul numbers.

[nescac1]

All great points by Colby Hoops, agree with all.  I had a feeling Nate would improve a lot as a shooter this year -- I swear he had like 6-7 3's roll in-and-out as a frosh, and his shot looked a lot better than the stats reflected -- but this sort of leap as a shooter I did not expect.   

Not only were Day's minutes curiously low, but he barely seemed to touch the ball on many possessions.  It was very, very strange how little he was utilized until the last minute or so of the game. His two earlier threes were off of offensive rebounds where he was wide open.  I don't get it, I'd have the ball in his hands as a creator on most possessions were I Amherst.   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Day's averaging 27 minutes per game this year, so 23 isn't that far off, especially when you factor in the 51 he played against Wesleyan because they had no other choice.

[Colby Hoops]

Day's averaging 27 minutes per game this year, so 23 isn't that far off, especially when you factor in the 51 he played against Wesleyan because they had no other choice.

That's also impacted the other way by some of the blowouts earlier in the year, and you'd expect a game like last night is a game when your best players play toward the upper end of their minutes. Grant Robinson averages 28 minutes per game but played 35. Williams main guys all exceeded their minutes average.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Day's averaging 27 minutes per game this year, so 23 isn't that far off, especially when you factor in the 51 he played against Wesleyan because they had no other choice.

That's also impacted the other way by some of the blowouts earlier in the year, and you'd expect a game like last night is a game when your best players play toward the upper end of their minutes. Grant Robinson averages 28 minutes per game but played 35. Williams main guys all exceeded their minutes average.

Yeah, but NESCAC play hasn't been too far off. I agree, you'd think you'd want a guy like that out there more, but it's not been the trend for Amherst.  27 mins at Middlebury, 24 at Williams, 27 vs Bates, 30 vs Tufts, 23 vs Williams.

[Colby Hoops]

Day's averaging 27 minutes per game this year, so 23 isn't that far off, especially when you factor in the 51 he played against Wesleyan because they had no other choice.

That's also impacted the other way by some of the blowouts earlier in the year, and you'd expect a game like last night is a game when your best players play toward the upper end of their minutes. Grant Robinson averages 28 minutes per game but played 35. Williams main guys all exceeded their minutes average.

Yeah, but NESCAC play hasn't been too far off. I agree, you'd think you'd want a guy like that out there more, but it's not been the trend for Amherst.  27 mins at Middlebury, 24 at Williams, 27 vs Bates, 30 vs Tufts, 23 vs Williams.

Fair point. Those are just low minute totals for an all-league guard on a team that's desperate for scoring. My guess is that Sears doesn't want to play Reynolds, Day and Robinson together -- but it seems like cutting Reynolds minutes instead of Day's is a very obvious choice.