MBB: NESCAC

nescac1 · February 26, 2022, 08:16:15 PM

The good news for Midd is that, still, there have been very few upsets in league tournaments. I think if there are no more upsets, maybe even if one more, Midd is likely in. Midd fans need to root hard for Mary Hardin Baylor, Susquehanna, Christopher Newport (all currently up by double digits in the second half), and Elmhurst tonight, and then tomorrow, St. Joseph's, RMC, Eastern and St. John's. If the favorites win all of those games, or even all but one of those games, I think Midd will be in for sure. But since Midd is either going to be in the last four teams in or the first four out, for each one of those teams that loses, its odds get worse and worse.

Right now, the following teams are, I think, locks for Pool C: 1. Platteville 2. Lacrosse 3. Wesleyan/Williams loser 4. UMD 5. Emerson 6. Babson 7. IWU 8. Wheaton 9. Chapman/Pomona loser 10. Swarthmore / JHU loser 11. Marietta / Mount Union loser 12. Case Western 13 Heidelberg 14 RPI. That leaves plenty of room for the next group (in I'm-not-sure-what order), Midd, Brandeis, Rochester, Rowan, Calvin/Hope loser, Desales ... and Midd is definitely not at the bottom of that group, I think they are above Brandeis, Desales, and likely Rowan.

nescac1 · February 26, 2022, 09:07:13 PM

Update: all the favorites look like they are going to win tonight. I'm calling it now: Midd will be in the tourney.

nescac1 · February 27, 2022, 08:46:36 AM

Maybe I was a bit too rosy re: Midd. D3 bubble watch has them below Utica, Brandeis, Calvin, Hood and Desales, which really surprises me. All those teams seem very closely grouped based on the statistical formula, like, dead even, so who knows. Midd is hurt by only three wins vs ranked opponents, the biggest hole in its resume. But if Midd is excluded (assuming St Joe's wins today) that means only one Pool C from Region one ... I'm still saying they get in barring more than one bid thief today, but it does seem like there are 8-10 teams vying for the last four spots and it's anyone's guess which way the committee will go ...

WPI89 · February 27, 2022, 09:19:57 AM

NESCAC1, where do you put Babson and Emerson compared to that group above?

nescac1 · February 27, 2022, 09:35:42 AM

WPI: Comfortably above. They should both be in, even with a few bid thieves today.

I think those two, UMD, and the Williams/Wes loser are all in. As is St Joe's if they lose today. Brandeis and Midd are the only bubble teams from regions one and two.

SpringSt7 · February 27, 2022, 10:30:36 AM

Drew Pasteur has Middlebury at a 24% chance of getting in, which admittedly feels low to me. But I really can't try to pretend like I have the depth of knowledge that he does. But Middlebury has been in this spot basically every year since 2017 and they've gotten in every single time.

On the other hand, I don't understand why Brandeis is still in the mix. They're 14-9. Has the UAA figured out how to cook the books the way we have?!?!?!

nescac1 · February 27, 2022, 10:45:51 AM

Brandeis has one of the top five SOS ratings in the country plus a very strong six wins vs ranked opponents. It just depends on it the committee prioritized that over a much better W-L record. It's hard to say. Brandeis did play a ridiculous schedule this year (the UAA was loaded plus WPI, Babson, Emerson, Tufts, UMD, wow) and they have some really strong wins. But 14-9 does seem like a stretch.

Cards Fan · February 27, 2022, 01:56:23 PM

CARDS WIN! FIRST NESCAC CHAMPIONSHIP FOR SILLOWAY GYMNASIUM!

jumpshot · February 27, 2022, 01:58:38 PM

Wes holds on to edge Ephs 78-75 in Middletown, as both teams show why they are good with different strengths. EPHs struggle on 5 for 19 from three-point land and giving up offensive rebounds. On to the tournament ....

SpringSt7 · February 27, 2022, 03:03:17 PM

Best NESCAC game since...? Wow.

The Mole · February 27, 2022, 03:10:31 PM

That was a doozie. Great intensity, defense. Mini momentum shifts every 5 minutes. As good as it gets....

Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 27, 2022, 03:03:17 PM
Best NESCAC game since...? Wow.

nescac1 · February 27, 2022, 03:27:17 PM

Agree. Heck of a game. Congrats to Wes on a well-earned title. These teams are dead even and two of the best in the country. It's gonna take a great effort to beat either in the tourney. Role guys really stepped up for both teams. Jordan James and Nicky Johnson were huge for Wes but so were Maccoux, Walker, and Ravetz, all of whom made huge shots. Jovan Jones had a stellar two-way game for the Ephs (he has to be DPOY in Nescac) and all five bench guys had big moments for Williams, especially Arnold, Glatzer and Roughley. Hope these teams meet again and if they do that it's deep in the tourney ...

Cards Fan · February 27, 2022, 03:30:04 PM

Quote from: nescac1 on February 27, 2022, 03:27:17 PM
Agree. Heck of a game. Congrats to Wes on a well-earned title. These teams are dead even and two of the best in the country. It's gonna take a great effort to beat either in the tourney. Role guys really stepped up for both teams. Jordan James and Nicky Johnson were huge for Wes but so were Maccoux, Walker, and Ravetz, all of whom made huge shots. Jovan Jones had a stellar two-way game for the Ephs (he has to be DPOY in Nescac) and all five bench guys had big moments for Williams, especially Arnold, Glatzer and Roughley. Hope these teams meet again and if they do that it's deep in the tourney ...

Flip side: Peek was LOCKED down. Fantastically defended all game.

nescac1 · February 27, 2022, 03:39:01 PM

Yeah. A lot of that was Jovan. He locked down the two best wings in the league (Peek and Stevens) over four games. But Wes did a great job on Karren and also gave the Ephs nothing easy on the three point line. Kudos to both coaches for taking away what each other wanted to do. Lots of guys had to step up and make plays and both teams had DEEP contributions. I thought that was Williams' best game all year. Wes just made one play more ...

names jaismith · February 27, 2022, 03:40:40 PM

Great, great game by both teams. Top of D3 level by both. Bet NCAA moves Williams to Region 3 for the tournament. Lots of close sites possible. Unlucky for those in that pod if it happens.

So many great players - but for me the difference maker, as he been most of the season for Wesleyan, was Nicky Johnson. Best point guard in the NESCAC.