MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

Williams to Mount Union: 537 Miles
Neumann to Mount Union: 370 Miles
Stevens to Mount Union: 425 Miles

Bizarre.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Williams to Mount Union: 537 Miles
Neumann to Mount Union: 370 Miles
Stevens to Mount Union: 425 Miles

Bizarre.

There was a real dearth of midwest teams in this year (even more than normal) and a higher percentage of them were in line to host.  Everybody had to get pushed west this year.  Same deal with the Marietta pod.  There's a team from PA in Illinois and one from Ohio in Wisconsin. 

[SpringSt7]

I can live with that answer but could live with it a little bit better if there weren't other East Coast pods that are so close (The Stockton pod comes to mind, Yeshiva and Hopkins are 100 miles away and Wilson is about 200).

At closer glance maybe Williams' resume isn't as great as it felt like. They have 1 win against an NCAA tournament team---although @ Wesleyan is a damn good win. Amherst and Middlebury aren't as good of wins as you would've liked, and while they didn't lose to any non RROs (Wesleyan 2x, Tufts, Amherst), the committee clearly didn't think too highly of New England this year as is.

Everyone dealt with COVID this year so it wouldn't be right to make excuses, but it sure would've been nice to have played Yeshiva, Utica, and Trinity.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I can live with that answer but could live with it a little bit better if there weren't other East Coast pods that are so close (The Stockton pod comes to mind, Yeshiva and Hopkins are 100 miles away and Wilson is about 200).

At closer glance maybe Williams' resume isn't as great as it felt like. They have 1 win against an NCAA tournament team---although @ Wesleyan is a damn good win. Amherst and Middlebury aren't as good of wins as you would've liked, and while they didn't lose to any non RROs (Wesleyan 2x, Tufts, Amherst), the committee clearly didn't think too highly of New England this year as is.

Everyone dealt with COVID this year so it wouldn't be right to make excuses, but it sure would've been nice to have played Yeshiva, Utica, and Trinity.

I mean, that's the rub. Somebody has to cross NY/PA to play and the ones who don't will probably be close to home.  Williams didn't have the resume this year to warrant better treatment.   It's definitely a winnable pod, though.  The big guy's going to have to play well.

[SpringSt7]

You guys had Williams 3rd off the board on the selection show last night, and if I remember correctly they were a lot closer to 1 and 2 than they were to 4 or 5. Do you have any insight into why they came in so much lower? Again, I'm fine with coming to the conclusion that their wins weren't as good as we previously thought, but this seems to be pretty out of nowhere, especially considering how spot on you guys were with almost every other element of the bracket.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You guys had Williams 3rd off the board on the selection show last night, and if I remember correctly they were a lot closer to 1 and 2 than they were to 4 or 5. Do you have any insight into why they came in so much lower? Again, I'm fine with coming to the conclusion that their wins weren't as good as we previously thought, but this seems to be pretty out of nowhere, especially considering how spot on you guys were with almost every other element of the bracket.

Williams and Mt Union are very similar resumes.  I think we had them both hosting, but they were likely among the last hosts on the list.  You could have the same pod at Williams with the Ephs and UMU reversed and no one would bat an eye.  I suspect, between them, that winning percentage likely made a difference.  Williams is 17-4 and UMU is 23-4.  That distinction probably made the difference.

[SpringSt7]

Thanks for the explanation, Ryan. I can certainly live with that as an answer, although an 0.810 WP not getting the job done is a little surprising when you consider the last 3 Eph teams that got in hosted with a 0.769, 0.815, and 0.704. But I understand that resumes don't exist in a vacuum, plus I'd like to check out the SOS component as well because I remember the 17 and 18 teams being quite high in that regard.

[nescac1]

Mount Union is a worthy host.  Swarthmore is not.  They have few impressive wins and three pretty bad losses. Swarthmore hosting over Williams or St Joe's is nuts in my opinion. But I continue to think Wesleyan got the bigger shaft.  They should be a one seed based on a very strong resume, and instead it appears like they are the lowest-seeded number two.  But, in the end, you have to beat everyone and you just have to win the games.  It's a very very deep tourney field with many quality 2/3 seeds in pods. 

[SpringSt7]

Giving my last stab at awards before we officially turn to the tournament:

COY: Joe Reilly, Wesleyan - Did an incredible job managing his team, benching your 5th year 1000 point scoring PG for a freshman is not easy and he somehow managed to get the most out of both of them, not to mention the improvements we saw from Peek and James. Additionally, did a great job managing foul trouble with James and Peek on Sunday, both had 4 fouls pretty early in the second half and came back late to make winning plays.

POY: Sam Peek, Wesleyan - While I came very close to Sobel at the end of the weekend, it eventually came down to the fact that Sobel's 2nd and 3rd teammates scored 18 points a game each while Peek's scored 11 and 10 (Sam Stevens also actually outscored Sobel in conference play by the slightest of margins). He was the best player on a dominant Wesleyan team that went 12-1 in conference play, averaged 20 a game and while fighting through an injury.

ROY: Sam Stevens, Middlebury - Nicky Johnson had a terrific season but I am still going with Stevens because of the sheer defensive attention he drew throughout the entire season. He didn't sneak up on anyone as he showed very early on he was a legit scorer and scored in double digits in all but 1 game this year. Johnson was NAILS down the stretch for Wesleyan but he was able to play off of some serious weapons on both ends of the floor that really opened up his game. And his assist numbers are inflated by some generous statkeeping at Silloway Gymnasium. Would've won it in just about any other year.

DPOY: Jovan Jones, Williams - I had Nick Osarenren as my pick for most of the year because of his gaudy steals and blocks numbers on an underrated Hamilton defense, but after this weekend Jones' staunch individual defense was too great to ignore. In 4 games against Wesleyan and Middlebury (I am choosing to withhold the 45 point drubbing of the Williams JV team, in which Peek still had just 13 points on 11 shots) as Sam Peek and Sam Stevens' primary defender, he held them to 9 points per game on 14-55 shooting (25.4%) from the field. Case closed.

First Team: Peek, Sobel, Karren, Thoerner, Jordan
Second Team: James, Prowitt-Smith, Stevens, Robinson, Rogers

Wesleyan had a great year this year but I couldn't justify having 2 first teamers, a 2nd teamer, and/or a Coach of the Year. That is like 2013 Amherst territory. Johnson gets left out because they were so deep top to bottom and like I said, his home/away assists numbers are a little weird. I don't love having 2 Tufts guys but they were still the 2 seed in the conference and definitely were playing great basketball at the end of the year. I also doubt Thoerner makes 1st team when the real awards come out but his availability and consistency when the rest of the cast were hurt or playing poorly gets the nod for me. In a perfect world I would've liked to have had more representation from the rest of the league but it was a 2 bid league this year and the gap between the top and the bottom was pretty substantial. These picks reflect that.

[jumpshot]

Williams will need to defend and rebound well against Neumann that plays a relentless city game. Outside shooting also important from the outset of the tournament .... Let's go EPHS!

[jumpshot]

.... also take good care of the ball in order to withstand defensive pressure.

[nescac1]

First, regarding the tourney, while weird things happen in the NCAA tourney and neither Wesleyan or Williams has much post-season experience, I'd be pretty shocked to see a first round loss for either (things get much tougher, especially for Williams, in round two).  I can't see Husson, which lost to Colby, Bates and Bowdoin, giving Wesleyan any sort of concerns. 

Neumann certainly plays a different style than most teams Williams has faced but at least the Ephs played against SUNY Delhi, a quality team which plays a relentless up-tempo style.  Neumann has a really glaring weakness ... they only have two rotation players who ever attempt a three, and only one who has attempted more than 10 on the SEASON.  With four days to prepare, a great defensive coach like App will certainly have a game plan in place that seeks to force Neumann out of its comfort zone in the paint. 

Excellent analysis as always from SpringSt7.  I think Jordan James was so dominant down the stretch that he HAS to be on the first team.  His last seven games, when he finally started playing big minutes (not sure if he was banged up before or had to get into shape or Reilly just realized, "hey maybe this utterly dominant big guy is worth playing most of the game") he averaged 17.4-8.9 plus 2.6 BPG while shooting something like 80 percent from the field.  He altered a LOT of shots around the rim in the last Williams game through his presence alone.  And in three of those games he played Alex Sobel, Nate Karren, and Donald Jorden.  I like guys who raise their games when the stakes are highest and he certainly was the most impactful player in the NESCAC tournament. 

For the same reason, Peek just can't be POY.  Yeah Midd's next two guys were statistically superior to Wesleyan's next two guys but I would not trade Nicky Johnson and Jordan James for Stevens and Osher.  Moreover, Wesleyan is WORLDS better 4-9 than Middlebury.   Antone Walker certainly has to be one of the best 7th men in the country!  Peek was 7-26 in the last two NESCAC games.  If he was the clearly dominant guy the rest of the year, that would be OK, but Sobel has a significant statistical edge overall.

Peek: 18-7-2 and 1.5 spg on 50/35/76
Sobel: 18-12-2 and 3.5 bpg on 56/65.

Sobel was a simply dominant rebounder and shot-blocker, and was overall a much bigger impact player on D, and also got more defensive attention given Midd's paucity of second tier options.  I'd actually go Sobel, Karren, Peek, Jordan James in that order for POY, and Peek and Jordan James are REALLY close.

I think at this point the all-league teams come down to the ten guys SpringSt listed, Nicky Johnson, and Stephen Baxter.  Noah Tyson warrants at least a mention as well.  I see the Baxter argument but just hard to put a guy from the last place team in the league on when there are so many good guard options.  And while Baxter scored a lot of points he had to take a lot of shots to get there (41 percent from the field, 31 percent from 3).  With Robinson, Jorden, James, Rogers, and MAYBE Peek (though he's reported to be coming back) graduating, there will be plenty of room for him - and Nicky Johnson - next year! 

[SpringSt7]

Not that it is going to make a difference, but the NESCAC men's hockey awards came out today and they gave ROY to a sophomore who didn't take last year off. Would bring some different names into play---Jarron Flynn, Ben Callahan-Gold (maybe?), etc. But it will still go to Stevens or Johnson.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Our D3hoops.com ROY eligibility is going to include freshmen players from last year, assuming they played four or less games.

[SpringSt7]

In that case, the John Adams vs. Stevens/Johnson debate will be fun.