MBB: NESCAC

[maineman]

I wonder if Midd hadn't had the loss to E Nazarene early in the season and had been able to play and win their canceled game at Stevens if that would gotten them in the tournament?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I wonder if Midd hadn't had the loss to E Nazarene early in the season and had been able to play and win their canceled game at Stevens if that would gotten them in the tournament?

Any extra wins would've helped.  With no real strong regionally ranked wins, though, it would probably have taken more than one or two.  Beating Williams or Wesleyan would've likely made the difference - certainly more difference than ENC or Stevens.

[nescac1]

If Midd had two more wins and one fewer loss, I think they would have certainly been in the tourney.  Then again, if Williams had been able to play a full roster in the second Wesleyan game or hadn't had to cancel six games due to COVID, who knows where they would be seeded right now.  In the end, it was just a really weird year for pretty much everyone ... but despite that, it's hard to say that any of the 25 most talented teams were, in the end, excluded rom the tournament, which in my view is one of the most loaded we have seen in years.  There are some really, REALLY good 2 and/or 3 seeds in the majority of the pods this year, which is not always the case.  Midd exceeded the wildest expectations anyone had for such a young, thin roster, and next year I think will be well-positioned to make a deeper post-season run. 

I have not seen much of Neumann and I am NOT assuming a win against them, they are a three seed in the pod and obviously a solid team.  But if Williams ultimately plays Mount Union it will be a really interesting match-up.  Despite being smallish up front (their top three forwards are 6'6, 6'5, and 6'3) they play MUCH bigger than that, those guys up front are tough to match up with as they play a lot bigger than their size -- they can all really jump and they combine to average four bpg and get a lot of offensive rebounds.  Their backcourt is not exceptional but certainly rock solid, with a big, savvy PG who knows how to run a team and a two guard who makes things happen with top-tier quickness.

Mount Union is faster on D than nearly everyone who Williams has played this season (Amherst and Wesleyan are probably comparable in that regard), and they do a lot to confuse an offense, switching from a very aggressive man-to-man which does a good job collapsing quickly on the interior to a tough match-up zone.  To score against them, Williams will need to stay poised, share the ball, and use their aggression against them; if they do that, the Ephs will get some baskets on off-ball cutting and a good number of open looks from three.  Then it's just a matter of hitting them! 

The biggest issue for the Ephs on defense will be matching up against their star Christian Parker, who comes in off the bench but plays most the game and seems to touch the ball a lot whenever he is in.  He is 6'6 with very long arms and is all over the floor on both ends, an incredibly versatile big guy.  He can shoot it all the way out to the three point line, is an excellent post player, and is also very dangerous getting the ball 15-18 feet from the basket, turning, and blowing by slower-footed big men (or just hitting a mid-range jumper).  He shoots 62 percent from the field despite getting a ton of defensive attention.  I'd say he is the most skilled offensive interior player Williams has seen all year, he doesn't have the brute force of a Sobel or Jordan James but is a lot more versatile: much better off the dribble and has a lot more range on his shot.  He's an all-American level talent for sure and will be very hard to stop. 

[nescac1]

NESCAC all-league teams out.  Pretty much the guys we've been discussing with a few mild surprises. 

Peek beats out Sobel for POY, I think Sobel earned it for the reasons I posted about but Peek is certainly a worthy choice.  But two Tufts guys on the first team?  Including Luke Rogers over Jordan James?  That is just a reputational pick.  Same with Garrett Day on the second team.  While Day is an excellent player, I think Grant Robinson had a better year than Garrett Day (whose shooting just fell off a cliff in the second semester), first of all, but Cole Prowitt-Smith CERTAINLY had a better year than Garrett Day - that to me is just nuts. 

Day averaged 15-3-1.5 while shooting 35/33/88.  Cole was 14-6-2 on 44/36/83 splits.  And while having a lot more team success.  Moreover, Cole was the lead ball-handler on this team and was the guy who had to take a lot of very hard late-in-shot-clock attempts when the Williams offense broke down.  Day shared that role with Robinson.  I just do not see the argument for Day over Cole, other than "he's a senior who was on the first team last year so gets a legacy spot."  Which corresponds with Rogers beating out Jordan James and Donald Jorden, both of whom had better years on teams that advanced further in the NESCAC playoffs.   

I would have gone with Jovan Jones for DPOY just because he totally shut down the league's POY TWICE this season (and also made life miserable for Sam Stevens), but Osarenren is a great defensive player who had eye-popping defensive stats, so I get it ...

Stevens is I believe the first ROY to make an all-league team since Duncan Robinson.  Maybe the only one?  I can't recall another.  Pretty good company!  Nicky Johnson has to be the best runner-up for ROY in many years ...

[SpringSt7]

Every year, the all-league selections manage to blow my mind.

[SpringSt7]

The last 3 times two players from the same team made 1st team all-league

2012-13: Amherst - Aaron Toomey (enough said), Willy Workman (enough said), 2nd consecutive undefeated NESCAC season, #1 Overall Seed in the country, National Champions

2017-18: Williams - James Heskett (22.0 ppg in conference), Bobby Casey (19.2 ppg in conference), 22-5 NESCAC Champs, #1 Overall Seed in the country

2021-22: Tufts - Luke Rogers (15 games played, 15.6 ppg), Dylan Thoerner (15.5 ppg), 13-10, NESCAC Quarterfinalists

[AmherstStudent05]

There are probably many reasons why the All-Conference awards seem to generate annual befuddlement on this board but I think one reason continues to be that we can never seem to agree on what the coaches are evaluating: is it the entire year of play? Strictly conference only play (even then we had debates years ago about whether conference only includes the conference tournament or not— I think it clearly does but who knows)? Or is it sort of a weighted system where conference only play is most important but the rest of the season can also factor in?

I've been closely following NESCAC basketball for 20 years and I still have no idea what the conference awards are supposed to measure. I suspect the coaches themselves may not really know for sure (And don't even get me started on Duncan Robinson — the only possible explanation for his being deprived of a first team selection in 2014 is if some coaches believed that first years were somehow ineligible for all conference recognition).

Garrett Day's selection (the one I obviously care most about) crystallizes this issue. If the all conference awards are based on the full season of play then I think Garrett is a perfectly defensible choice for second team recognition. However, if we are limiting ourselves to conference play then I agree that the case gets more difficult to make along the lines nescac1 has spelled out. Garrett Day and Grant Robinson were clearly Amherst's two best players this year and while I haven't done an exhaustive study my instinct is that Garrett ought to be considered our MVP of the whole season and Grant was the mvp of our NESCAC campaign. It really would be nice if one of these days we could just be told the criteria the coaches are told to use (if they are told anything at all!).

Spring, I too was surprised to see two Jumbos make the first team (I credit Joey Kizel's powers of persuasion!) but I would call your attention to 2007 when Bates had two first teamers on a team that finished eighth in the conference!

Anyway, all that being said, as always, hearty congratulations to all the honorees and thanks to all players, coaches, and support staff for making another fun year of NESCAC hoops possible!

[AmherstStudent05]

I have said this several times before but I must say it again: has Midd ever considered entering into a "Little III" arrangement with Tufts and Trinity? I know it won't have the same tradition as the Little III or CBB but in terms of helping out the strength of schedule I think it would be a huge help. I know every year is different and has its own complexities but I've been at this a while now and I feel like it is often the case that Midd gets shafted at the end of the year on strength of schedule concerns relative to Williams and Amherst and that more often than not the main reason Amherst and Williams appear to have a stronger schedule is the games against each other and Wes.

[SpringSt7]

The non-conference vs. conference, while pertinent (especially this year), has always been secondary to team success vs. stats in my opinion. Almost every team in the league almost every year has at least one or two all-league caliber players. What tends to separate them is the wins and losses, which is why it is puzzling to see 2 members of a double digit loss Tufts team on the 1st-team.

Another thing I think is important to note: 3 coaches made their NESCAC debuts this year---Sears, Linton, and Lloyd. While we never know the voting breakdown, it is possible that bringing in 3 new coaches from 3 different leagues/areas who are yet to be influenced by any sort of status quo could make a different in results.

[CacBball]

Hey fellas- long time listener, first time caller here. Figured it was time to make my debut post on the Board. Appreciate all the insight you guys have provided all season long. Certainly an interesting year in the Nescac with notable storylines including the up and down seasons of the two major programs with new leadership, Tufts and Amherst, the unexpected demise of Colby, and of course the job Jeff Brown did up north this year. And that's before even mentioning the season's two best performers in Wes and Williams. Just goes to show how competitive this league is every year as preseason predictions start to fizzle with the season's opening tip and are put to sleep upon the entrance of NESCAC play.

Re the Conference Awards discussion: I always find it fascinating the amount of thought that gets put in to predicting the all-conference squads prior to their inevitably head-scratching release. The only conclusion I have ever come to is that the Coaches generally seem to treat the all-conference teams as a sign of respect to the players that have meant most to their programs, and that frankly they are not worried about getting their first or second team "right" per se. Obviously this is often showcased through the influence seniority has on these awards, but I think all-in-all it's safe to say that the Coaches typically aren't suffering from internal debates over whether Garrett Day deserves All-NESCAC this year or if Luke Rogers had a First-Team caliber season.

[SpringSt7]

CacBball - welcome! Always great to see new faces. No doubt we care a lot more than the coaches do about all-conference teams and they treat it differently than we do. One thing I've always wondered is how much the coaches are weighing a player's one performance against them vs. their performance in the other 9 games, and also, how much they are weighing past years, like you eluded to. I would imagine when you are voting on a Day/Rogers/Robinson/etc, it is probably hard to just focus on their one season and not year's past.

[Colby Hoops]

CacBball - welcome! Always great to see new faces. No doubt we care a lot more than the coaches do about all-conference teams and they treat it differently than we do. One thing I've always wondered is how much the coaches are weighing a player's one performance against them vs. their performance in the other 9 games, and also, how much they are weighing past years, like you eluded to. I would imagine when you are voting on a Day/Rogers/Robinson/etc, it is probably hard to just focus on their one season and not year's past.

Coaches tend to do a poor job of award voting at all levels, which is why a lot of professional leagues moved away from that. Players aren't much better -- when I played our coaching staff used to give us a form to vote for end of year awards. I assume they would tally those up and vote that way, but I would say player voting skews very heavily to how a guy fared against your team.

[JEFFFAN]

My guess is that not one of the coaches spent as much time picking an all-league team as I just did reading the last four or five (very good) posts about the topic.  Just not very important to them.   Generally I think that the phrase "to the victor goes the spoils" applies, but as this year's Tufts selections show that is not always the case.   But I would venture a guess - and I know that someone out there will check me on this! - that 99% of the time the coach of the year is the coach of the team that wins the league.   So that is an easy one.   Player of the year might be close to that probability.   After that ... yeah, long time recognition awards.  Day is an example of that.   Good kid, played a lot over four years, team not so good but he hit the 1,000 point mark.   Overall - they just don't pay much attention to it.   

[nescac1]

Congrats to the Ephs on winning their first NCAA game since 2019.  The Ephs dominated an overmatched Neumann squad, who seemed more like a "4" seed than a "3."  Neumann's star, Vaughns, is a top-notch post player but he unfortunately got hurt in the second half and did not return (the game was already effectively over by that point).  Other than him, Neumann didn't have a lot of talent. 

The Ephs looked very sharp in this one, never taking the foot off the gas, shooting 52 percent from 3 and accumulating 24 assists against only 4 turnovers.  Spencer Spivy, who's been showing a lot more all-around game of late and attacking the rim aggressively, was stellar, as was Cole Prowitt-Smith.  Alex Stoddard was pure from deep, hitting 5-5 from three, he was clearly in the zone.  Jovan Jones and Brandon Roughley also had great efforts for Williams.  The only negative for Williams was Declan Porter finally missing his first free throw of the season (he's now 16-17).

Tomorrow will of course be a VERY different game as Mount Union is ranked sixth nationally according to Massey and 11th by D3hoops.  Williams be an underdog tomorrow and, if they advance, likely in every remaining game this year.  Now that a young team has gotten its first NCAA win as a group under their belt, hopefully they will play with intensity but also play loose, which is when the Ephs are at their best. 

Good luck to Wesleyan tonight - I do not expect them to have any trouble, either. 

[SpringSt7]

Williams runs Neumann out of the gym---the A/TO numbers and shooting really just speak for themselves. A good reminder how lethal of a shooting team this is.

Mount Union (presumably) will present a unique challenge as Christian Parker (19/9) at 6'6 215 is not an ideal matchup really for either Nate Karren nor Jovan Jones. I wonder if the Ephs might be better off letting him run crazy and limited everyone else, especially shooters. Williams' A game is good enough to beat anyone but they will have to come very very close to that in a hostile environment tomorrow.