MBB: NESCAC

[Bucket]

More heads up than this?  Still my GOAT play!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3xeop5q-Pk

As much as it pains me to say this, I agree.

[Greek Tragedy]

I believe a lot of the Marietta guys will be back. Ellis is gone, but I'm pretty sure Isaly has one more year, if he wants it.

I saw a picture on Twitter that had Ellis, Isaly, Kreeger and Lydic with their coach (?) and the tweet says something about "this isn't how the seniors wanted to go out" and wished them luck in life (or something like that). Makes me think none of them are coming back or the person who tweeted it doesn't know they may come back for a 5th/COVID year?

[nescac1]

Ellis and Kreeger are both fifth year seniors. Even those two alone would be big losses.  Is Isaly is done too, Marietta is an entirely different team, and hard to see them as any sort of contender next year.   

Looking at New England, WPI brings back its two big guys, but loses both fifth-year seniors in its backcourt.  They will still be the pretty clear NEWMAC favorite I'd say, although Babson could be right there as well.  UMD is being crushed by graduation, while Keene brings nearly everyone back, so they will be the clear LED favorite. 

In terms of the big questions, the only really big one in NESCAC is whether Peek returns.  If he does, Wesleyan should be a top-ten team, although Jordan James was a monster down the stretch and will certainly be a tough guy to replace.  Midd and Williams of course have everyone, and nearly everyone, back. 

St. Joseph's has only one player who exhausted his eligibility but a ton of fourth-year seniors, all of whom actually played four seasons, so maybe they won't be itching to come back.  Jaecee Martin is the most important of those.  If St. Joe's loses Powell (its lone fifth-year guy) and a few of its key seniors, I imagine they will almost surely take a step back.

Nichols loses some major pieces for sure, they will be a very different team next year. 

Emerson is the team with the most potential upside from fifth-year guys.  All its seniors, including Houston and Waterhouse, have a year of eligibility.  If they return, Emerson could be a top 25 team.  I wonder if Houston could, at his size, get a few low-D1 opportunities, should he choose to go that route ....

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Isaly and Lydic are currently planning to leave, but they are getting recruited pretty hard to come back.

[nescac1]

RMC and Newport seem like a pretty obvious 1-2 preseason.  I really do think given how massive the losses are for most of the teams that finished 2-17, Williams and Wesleyan will have very credible arguments for being in the next five teams in the pre-season, and I expect both will be locks for the top ten.  If you look at the teams ranked ahead of one or both of them:

Marietta (as of now), Elmhurst, Wabash, IWU, Oshkosh, CWRU, Emory, Platteville and UMD all lose a ton of star-power to graduation.  RMC, CNU, MHB, WPI, Oswego State, Wesleyan and Williams seem to return the core of their rosters, with maybe one or two major contributors graduating.  I think Oshkosh returns a fair amount too.  Those seem like they should be 8 of the top 10 teams.  Stockton probably deserves a spot too.  After that, feels like a bit of a crapshoot (though Marietta probably is in if, as Ryan notes below, Isaly is convinced to come back).  This will certainly change a LOT depending on 5th year senior surprises, but I'm thinking that the top 10 to start next year looks something like:  RMC, CNU, MHB, WPI, Williams, Wesleyan, Oswego State, Oshkosh, Stockton, Marietta.  With Mount Union, Hope, Roanoke, Middlebury, Swarthmore and Keene State as other teams to watch; all should be in the top 25 at least. 

Weird to list no UAA or CCIW teams, but both those leagues seemingly get absolutely decimated by graduation.  WIAC also gets killed by graduation.  Those three leagues were all quite dominant throughout the year, but man, they all had a LOT of critical seniors and especially fifth-year seniors ... of course, the UAA did a great job bringing in grad students last year and likely does the same again this year, so that could change things in a hurry.  The top projected UAA team, the top projected CCIW team (or two) and the second-best WIAC team will certainly all start out as top 25 teams; but I'm not sure exactly who those will be. 

[toad22]

NESCAC was relatively down this year. Will it return to its typical place among the top 5 conferences next year? Since I am a total Eph homer, I am the wrong person to break down a bunch of other teams in NESCAC in detail. A few facts I am certain of are 1) Middlebury will be a lot better. They got hurt as bad by COVID as any team in the country, and Jeff Brown is such a good coach, that things will only get better for them. 2) Amherst needs a year to regroup after losing their senior guards. If they are better next year than they were this year, I will be shocked. 3) Wesleyan will miss Jordan James more than most believe. He moved the needle big time. I'm not sure Wes will absorb the loss without some significant diminution of wins. Beyond that, I look to others .....

[JEFFFAN]

NESCAC was relatively down this year. Will it return to its typical place among the top 5 conferences next year? Since I am a total Eph homer, I am the wrong person to break down a bunch of other teams in NESCAC in detail. A few facts I am certain of are 1) Middlebury will be a lot better. They got hurt as bad by COVID as any team in the country, and Jeff Brown is such a good coach, that things will only get better for them. 2) Amherst needs a year to regroup after losing their senior guards. If they are better next year than they were this year, I will be shocked. 3) Wesleyan will miss Jordan James more than most believe. He moved the needle big time. I'm not sure Wes will absorb the loss without some significant diminution of wins. Beyond that, I look to others .....

Good points all.  I think that when trying to project we have to look at changes to both coaches and administrations in terms of how that impacts a program.   At Amherst, for instance, there was a new Admission Director three years ago - a new coach this year - and now a new President whenever that person is announced soon.   That is a ton of change as all three of those positions impact what the future holds.   Typically a new coach gets some help in admissions at any school at any level when they first start - sort of a given as normally the new coach is taking over a troubled program.  Amherst is different in this regard because the new coach replaced the GOAT in Hixon.  (Amherst GOAT not necessarily NESCAC GOAT!)   

As a Lord Jeff fan, I am not as optimistic because I don't think that recruiting bigs - which I believe NESCAC1 has identified is occurring with Amherst - in a division that thrives on guards is a good idea.  The best players in Amherst history were guards.  I am also a little concerned because the new admissions person came from MIT, a school that has not typically pushed athletics.   Call me concerned!

[nescac1]

Next year's Amherst roster will present a real roster dilemma for the coaching staff.  There is no shortage of talent, that is certainly not an issue, and you always want to start with talent.  But in modern basketball (as we saw based on the teams who made it to the Final Four) you ideally want one REALLY strong post presence to anchor the team on both ends, surrounded by four guys who can dribble, pass, and shoot reliably from 3.  Or at the very least, you want your forwards to be able to space the floor effectively with some sort of perimeter threat.  You can survive without an elite post player, but without top-level guard play, you can't go very far. 

Amherst's best two returning guards (based on what I saw) are 5'8 and 5'7 (whatever they are listed at, that's how tall they look).  Both of them are quick, tough and can shoot, and in limited minutes playing together vs. Williams, they actually were quite effective.  But can Amherst survive with such a small backcourt?  Maybe for stretches, given how much rim protection they have inside.  But man it's tough giving up so much size on the perimeter EVERY game.  The other returning guards and wings are not playmakers with the ball in their hands nor elite three point shooters.  And then there is this MASSIVE amount of superfluous depth at the 4 and 5.  Scherer, Schretter, Helmke (who I guess may be forced to play the 3 but I think he's a bigger weapon as a 4), Schlakman, Vance, Oranye, that's six guys for two spots up front, or at LEAST 5 if Helmke is moved to the three.  Then you have two 6'10 plus guys coming in who may challenge for time early and obviously those guys are in the mix at only the 4 or 5 as well. 

So, the coaching staff will have to figure out pretty quickly which of those EIGHT guys are going to play up front.  And even having two of those guys on the floor together at all times may really jam things up, spacing wise.  Based on this year, given that they ended the year with a 14 man rotation, I have a feeling we may see guys shuttling in and out of the rotation all year, since they all have really different skill sets. 

Barring massive improvements from certain guys, or a first-year wing who has to play right away,  I think I would start the year with this rotation: Reynolds and Mitchell sharing the point and playing occasionally together for a few minutes at a time to throw defenses off.  Phelan and Sommers splitting the two (no matter who plays there, that's inevitably going to be a big downgrade from Garrett Day).  Helmke and Alausa at the 3 (again I'd rather play Helmke at the 4 but this is the only way to get the best guys on the floor).  Scherer backed by Oranye at the 5, and Vance at the 4 backed by either Randall or if he's not ready, Schlakman - or maybe some minutes from Helmke when they need to go smaller.  That makes a few big men the odd men out but not everyone can play with so many bodies.  Eventually, I would whittle that down to a top 8 of Scherer, Oranye, Vance, Helmke, Alausa, Phelan, Reynolds and Mitchell. 

That would be a really big, crazy athletic team that could be a nightmare to score against with two elite rim protectors and a great defensive backcourt.  In Oranye, Vance and Scherer, they might have the three most terrifying dunkers in NESCAC next year, to finish plays.  I think the 8-man rotation above could certainly challenge for a top-4 spot in NESCAC, maybe even a bit better, even if they would start the year behind at least Williams, Wesleyan and Midd in predicted pecking order. 

The problem would be, can they shoot the ball at all?  Amherst really needs Reynolds, Phelan, Sommers, Alausa, Schackman and Vance to spend the off-season just shooting a huge number of 3's.  (Mitchell and Helmke both look like they can shoot it well enough already).  Because teams are gonna continually pack the lane on D and make those guys prove it from outside. 

[SpringSt7]

It seems to me like Amherst is zigging when everyone else is zagging. When Williams played a Marlon Sears coached Montclair St in the 2018-19 season, Montclair St played with a traditional center but their 4 man was a lot closer to being a traditional power forward than a 4th guard. I know that is going a little ways back but that to me presents a clearer picture of how Sears wants to play than trying to guess through his 14 man rotation with a different coach's players in his first season after a pandemic shut down his first year.

They are simply bringing in too many big bodies for me to think that they don't plan on using a lot of them together. We saw it at times this year, trying to play Scherrer and Schretter together, and mixing and matching other combinations based on health related availability and recent form. If Vance plays as an athletic 4 man who also posts up and Scherrer is their center, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that that type of combination could cause problems, especially against the lower half of the league. Obviously they will need guys who make shots, but I don't think he is trying to fit square pegs in round holes.

[P'bearfan]

NESCAC was relatively down this year. Will it return to its typical place among the top 5 conferences next year? Since I am a total Eph homer, I am the wrong person to break down a bunch of other teams in NESCAC in detail. A few facts I am certain of are 1) Middlebury will be a lot better. They got hurt as bad by COVID as any team in the country, and Jeff Brown is such a good coach, that things will only get better for them. 2) Amherst needs a year to regroup after losing their senior guards. If they are better next year than they were this year, I will be shocked. 3) Wesleyan will miss Jordan James more than most believe. He moved the needle big time. I'm not sure Wes will absorb the loss without some significant diminution of wins. Beyond that, I look to others .....

Good points all.  I think that when trying to project we have to look at changes to both coaches and administrations in terms of how that impacts a program.   At Amherst, for instance, there was a new Admission Director three years ago - a new coach this year - and now a new President whenever that person is announced soon.   That is a ton of change as all three of those positions impact what the future holds.   Typically a new coach gets some help in admissions at any school at any level when they first start - sort of a given as normally the new coach is taking over a troubled program.  Amherst is different in this regard because the new coach replaced the GOAT in Hixon.  (Amherst GOAT not necessarily NESCAC GOAT!)   

As a Lord Jeff fan, I am not as optimistic because I don't think that recruiting bigs - which I believe NESCAC1 has identified is occurring with Amherst - in a division that thrives on guards is a good idea.  The best players in Amherst history were guards.  I am also a little concerned because the new admissions person came from MIT, a school that has not typically pushed athletics.   Call me concerned!

All the Bowdoin fans nodding their head and thinking..."Yes, this is exactly what should happen..."

[thebear]

It seems to me like Amherst is zigging when everyone else is zagging. When Williams played a Marlon Sears coached Montclair St in the 2018-19 season, Montclair St played with a traditional center but their 4 man was a lot closer to being a traditional power forward than a 4th guard. I know that is going a little ways back but that to me presents a clearer picture of how Sears wants to play than trying to guess through his 14 man rotation with a different coach's players in his first season after a pandemic shut down his first year.

They are simply bringing in too many big bodies for me to think that they don't plan on using a lot of them together. We saw it at times this year, trying to play Scherrer and Schretter together, and mixing and matching other combinations based on health related availability and recent form. If Vance plays as an athletic 4 man who also posts up and Scherrer is their center, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that that type of combination could cause problems, especially against the lower half of the league. Obviously they will need guys who make shots, but I don't think he is trying to fit square pegs in round holes.

Sears' background before Montclair was primarily as a D-I assistant, Cornell, Columbia, High Point, Wagner, Binghamton. Even at the low end of D-I, they tend to have a lot of size, Cornell this season has 5 6-8's and above, and that's without Jimmy Boeheim.  Columbia this year has similar size.  Since Amherst is comparable academically to those schools, suspect he's going with his comfort zone.  Whether his stable of bigs will be able to effectively defend 6-1 quick spot shooters will be the question.

[JEFFFAN]

So here is an off-season question for this group ... as you look at the best players in your respective schools' history, are they guards, forwards, or centers?  I generally know the answer at Amherst - Toomey and Olsen were guards and probably the GOAT (according to Hixon), Rehnquist, would be classified as a two guard given his incredible outside shooting prowess.   

[nescac1]

Williams has had strangely few truly elite guards over the years ... after Crotty, Wang and Casey it starts to get thin (guys like Schultz and Aronowitz I'd classify as wings).  Center on the other hand has been consistently great - Chapin, Coffin, Whittington, Mayer, Karp, with Nate Karren looking like the latest in a long line of great ones.  And on the wing, Nogelo, Duncan, Schultz etc., also pretty loaded. 

[stlawus]

I'm hearing from an unnamed (and very trustworthy) source that Sam Peek has entered the portal.

[nescac1]

Your source is a good one stlawus as it appears Peek has confirmed this himself on Twitter, re-tweeting this tweet:

https://twitter.com/jakelieberman2/status/1506724391790383104?s=20&t=ILC0IQIIgSGBI3EN-_n0Rw

Peek has put together a pretty sleek highlight reel from the season: https://www.dropbox.com/s/mti6hmevjt0ptjx/Sam%20Peek%20Highlights%2021-22.mp4?dl=0

I'll be curious to see if Peek gets any bites.  With his size, athleticism and coordination, I would think that at least an Ivy or Patriot type program would be interested in him.  Certainly, he and Matthew Schner are the most D1-ish players who are likely to be available coming out of D3, as everyone wants big, athletic wings with perimeter shooting ability. 

Huge implications for Wesleyan; with Peek, I think they are a lock to a be a top-10 pre-season team, but without him (and the other very good players who are graduating), I see them as still very good, but probably not a top-25 team.