MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

Jeff Brown and co. know what they are doing, and either way I expect them to be in the NCAA tournament this year, but playing Keene @ Keene today, two days after a conference weekend seems like a massive scheduling blunder. Keene played Saturday as well but didn't play Friday, they will be fresher and at home.


Midd presumably had a very light practice yesterday and now plays a Top 5 team for its third game in four days, presumably will have Tuesday off and then gets 3 days to prepare for Williams, who yes, does play Amherst on Wednesday. So it evens out. But playing this game in November and either playing no one mid week or playing a much easier opponent seems like it would've given them a better chance to win one of the two, let alone both on the road.

[nescac1]

Definitely should be a fun one today.  Sobel v Hunter might (probably?) will be a match-up of the two best two way-centers in the division.  Sobel is bigger and more forceful inside but Hunter is quicker and a more explosive athlete.  Both highly skilled as post finishers, and elite rim protectors.  Staying out of foul trouble obviously huge for both as both teams rely on their respective bigs to do so much.  Midd can throw some other dudes like Brennan and McKersie at Hunter but Keene has, really, no one else inside, so that's an advantage for Midd.  On the other hand Keene is much quicker than Midd on the perimeter and also has more reliable outside shooting. Siow is good at harassing lead guards at the point of attack.

Midd I think needs Stevens to play close to even with Brito to win this one on the road. No easy task although Brito has finally cooled off just a bit from outside over his past five games after his insanely scorching start. Two of the smoothest wings around, Brito can really do it all on both ends.  Aronson is an X factor for Keene as he can get very hot off the bench (although he did miss Keene's last game).  If Midd can get a few triples from Goldman that would be big as well. 

[Homer]

Not that I think it matters long term, but do any Lord Jeff fans know anything about Mohammed Alausa?  Pretty much a thin sub over his career but he had a monster game today.   Seemed to come out of nowhere.

It seems to me that the Jeffs, (oops, Mammoths) are rudderless. Alausa goes off one day. Vance has a good game. Sherer another. Hammond, Mitchell at times, then they disappear the next game. What bothers me is, with all the bigs, they shoot close to 50% in 3 out of 4 of the last three games. The guards are shooting 20%. What are the bigs for, rebounding the misses? Turnover are a problem too. Sometimes Sears has 11 players playing equal minutes. Other times he doesn't sub. One game they're down by a ton of points, then nearly win. Another they're up big, lose the lead, then shoot the lights out in ot. To quote Forest Gump, "They're like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get."

[AmherstRules]

Amherst to start a 2023 run this week.

[SpringSt7]

This is about as physical and intense of a non conference game as I can remember watching in recent memory. If you didn't know any better you would think it was the conference tournament.

[SpringSt7]

Middlebury up 46-42 at half. Absolutely lightning pace. If Middlebury doesn't turn the ball over they are either scoring or getting an offensive rebound and scoring off of that. Sobel has 20 points 4 rebounds 4 assists and 3 blocks in 16 minutes but the 4 minutes he was off is the reason it's a game. Not sure if they can get away with playing him 16 minutes again in the second half.

[Old Guy]

Middlebury up 46-42 at half. Absolutely lightning pace. If Middlebury doesn't turn the ball over they are either scoring or getting an offensive rebound and scoring off of that. Sobel has 20 points 4 rebounds 4 assists and 3 blocks in 16 minutes but the 4 minutes he was off is the reason it's a game. Not sure if they can get away with playing him 16 minutes again in the second half.

Best half of basketball ever played! Sorry, I embellish. But really, I doubt that the pace and quality of play can be maintained. Just terrific. So far.

[nescac1]

Sobel is national POY and it's not close. Hunter and Britto are two of the other best five guys I've seen this year (Miles Mallory, Christian Parker and Jahn Hines the others, those five are very close).  These teams aren't super deep but the talent at the top in this game is insane. 

[jumpshot]

Panther Pride prevails with Sobel giving Keene State their first loss ....way to go Midd ....

[SpringSt7]

Middlebury 86 Keene St. 82

I'll leave it to the Midd folks to soak it in with a full recap but wow, just wow, what a game. Type of game that made you feel better off for having watched it. Sobel is absurd, the NPOY for sure. 31-16-5 and 5 blocks, two of which game on the last possession to win the game. He looks like he is playing against his little cousins on a 9 foot hoop and if the game was played at a slower pace and didn't have his hands so full with Jeff Hunter he probably would've had 40.

Additionally, the Keene St. broadcast is phenomenal. The graphics and camera work are head and shoulders clear of any other D3 broadcast I've seen and they pull off the tricky balance of having two students on the play by play and color commentary. As I write this they are interviewing Ryan Cain about 90 seconds after the game ended. Just really high level stuff. Props to everyone involved tonight, a real treat.

[middhoops]

Knowing that this game was going to be important, I made a point of watching Keene play at least part of most of their games.  And from what I saw, they were indeed very good.
In retrospect though, they were just doing the minimum to get by, until tonight.  Damn fellas, Keene St. is really, really good.  Brito!  Hunter!  Siow!!  Damn they can play ball.

Midd had to play fantastic.  Alex Sobel had to be Superman.  The whole Panther team rose to the occasion.

Kudos to our guys for the win.  But equal recognition to Keene St. for a game no one will forget for a long time.

[Painter66]

I have been part of and watching Middlebury basketball all of my adult life, and I have not seen a game like tonight in recent memory. Yes, it helps that we won, but this was a war with 2000 fans in a hostile place after two tough games this weekend. Jeff Brown had the team ready to play, and Alex was on a mission against Hunter. I think I have watched all of his games, but I know I have never seen the game he played tonight. The whole club responded against a team that fought back and seemingly took control with 3 minutes to go. Stevens really asserted himself tonight in a very tough match up with Brito who is great. Flaks is a difference maker for Midd, as we do not win tonight without him. All in all, a great win. Notably, the announcers pointed out that Keene will be a big favorite to win the rest of their games, while Midd heads into the meat of the NESCAC season at Williams this weekend.

[Old Guy]

When Keene State was up 5, 68-63, with ten minutes or so to go, I thought Midd was cooked. We couldn't seem to guard them; they were going right by us (how's that for sophisticated analysis?). Brito/Siow seemed unstoppable. At 68-63: a Sobel dunk, a Sobel free throw, and a Sobel hoop and it was tied 68-68. Osher's three at 40 seconds to make it 84-82 was the deciding hoop, though Stevens had 6 points in the stretch and played both ends — he's back.

And Flaks, a frosh, was ice water, sinking two free throws (nothing but net), to put the game away. I know, there were only two seconds left, but it did mean we could take a breath. He had 16 points, 4-4 from three, and played well under pressure bringing the ball up. The frosh big guys, McKersie and Witherington are looking more and more comfortable. That's important: when Sobel went out, both Colby and Keene immediately attacked the hoop.

I have seen, in person or remotely, nearly all of Alex's games, and this I think was his best. He did some things tonight offensively that I had not seen before — he was so aggressive going to the hoop. Skidmore earlier this year was a dominant performance: 27 points, 20 boards, 7 blocks, but Skidmore is not Keene State (Midd won by 20). He was typically efficient: 13-21 tonight though that's likely the most shots he's taken in a game. He committed two fouls tonight in 31 minutes. Last year, you worried about foul trouble every game. He sure is fun to watch. Glad he's on our side.

[nescac1]

A few more thoughts on Sobel: 

1. He is the Nikola Jokic of Division 3.  Not the dominant passer that Jokic is, although much improved and very good, nor the outside shooter, but far more dominant (at this level) defensively.  He does a lot of the same sorts of things on the court, and has the same sort of overall impact for his team's success.  From either the low or high post, he can easily work his way into the lane and finish with incredibly high efficiency over any single-team attempt.  If teams send multiple guys at him, he's very adept at finding teammates cutting to the rim or for wide-open outside shots.  He also uses his huge frame very effectively to set guys up for easy drives on hand-off plays.  Like Jokic he has just utterly ridiculous hands, he snatches, controls and manipulates the ball with such ease. In sum, he seems to control the entire game (whether through scoring or otherwise) on both sides of the court when he is on the floor. 

2. I think he has edged Ryan Sharry as the best Middlebury player since NESCAC teams were eligible for NCAA play (I don't know who Midd had before then).   Of course he hasn't had nearly the tourney success as Sharry, but Sharry played on very deep and loaded teams.  Sobel has played his last two years with a ton of underclassmen who are still learning, and he has elevated all of their games (much like Jokic does for his teammates).  Both guys were late bloomers who made massive strides their last few seasons.  Sharry especially took a massive leap as a senior.  But statistically, Sobel is even better.  Sharry averaged 19-10-2, 2 bpg, 1 spg, on 61/43/67.  That was a fantastic statistical year.  But Sobel?  Sobel is at 20-12-3, 4 bpg, 1 spg, on 59/44/72.  And Sharry had a bit more help from a loaded and very veteran supporting cast.  Also, Sobel has been totally dominant for two years whereas Sharry truly came into his own as a senior. 

3. Sobel is climbing the ranks of the best overall NESCAC players of the NCAA era.  He certainly won't get past Nogelo, nor Olson or Toomey unless he somehow leads this Midd team to a title.  But to me he's already in that next group of (in no particular order) Sharry, Mayer, Schultz, Schantz, Tatum, Coffin, Kizel, Whittington, Rhoten, Workman, Bedford, Crotty (among a few others) and likely ends up at the very top of that group. 

 

[names jaismith]

Time again for some predictions for the weekend.

Hamilton 60  Amherst 56  Hamilton is a tough out, especially in Clinton
Tufts 72 Bates 59  No squeakers for Bates this weekend as Tufts is in control throughout
Wesleyan 71 Trinity 69  Trinity still smarting from being edged by Conn but Wesleyan has Nicky Johnson
Colby 82 Bowdoin 70 Bowdoin puts up a fight, but Colby has too much firepower
Williams 67  Middlebury 66  Home court advantage gives Williams the edge.  I'd pick the same score with a different winner if it was in Middlebury.