MBB: NESCAC

[Colby Hoops]

Few notes on Colby's season. I think the gaudy pre-conference record may have set expectations a bit high, but I also don't think they've played too badly to this point in conference. The only real rough performance was a home loss against Wesleyan (coming off a heart breaker in OT to Trinity). The Trinity game could've gone either way, they had a 9 point lead in the second half against Williams on the road and they hung tough against Midd. The only game going forward where they are definitely underdogs would be on the road at Tufts. Now, they also can easily lose any of the remaining games, but I think there's a chance here to have a strong push to the end of the season.

• Max Poulton has been excellent lately, averaging 16 per game in conference play on 50% shooting.
• If Noah Tyson can make some shots, that would really make a difference for the Mules. He's struggled all year from three, hopefully he can get hot down the stretch.
• Will King remains just a ridiculous passer. He's likely to lead the conference in assists again, and is up to nearly 7 per game in conference play, while once again leading the league in A/TO ratio. He didn't play enough games to qualify last year, but (if you were to remove the playing time requirement last year) he's fairly likely to lead the league in assists and A/TO ratio for every year of his career. Unfortunate that he'll really end up only playing 2.5 years with the Covid year and injuries/illness last year. On a per game basis he's one of the all-time passers in conference history.
• Ben Kaczmerek has moved into the starting lineup and is giving Colby just some more spot up shooting that's been important.

[Bucket]

Few notes on Colby's season. I think the gaudy pre-conference record may have set expectations a bit high, but I also don't think they've played too badly to this point in conference. The only real rough performance was a home loss against Wesleyan (coming off a heart breaker in OT to Trinity). The Trinity game could've gone either way, they had a 9 point lead in the second half against Williams on the road and they hung tough against Midd. The only game going forward where they are definitely underdogs would be on the road at Tufts. Now, they also can easily lose any of the remaining games, but I think there's a chance here to have a strong push to the end of the season.

• Max Poulton has been excellent lately, averaging 16 per game in conference play on 50% shooting.
• If Noah Tyson can make some shots, that would really make a difference for the Mules. He's struggled all year from three, hopefully he can get hot down the stretch.
• Will King remains just a ridiculous passer. He's likely to lead the conference in assists again, and is up to nearly 7 per game in conference play, while once again leading the league in A/TO ratio. He didn't play enough games to qualify last year, but (if you were to remove the playing time requirement last year) he's fairly likely to lead the league in assists and A/TO ratio for every year of his career. Unfortunate that he'll really end up only playing 2.5 years with the Covid year and injuries/illness last year. On a per game basis he's one of the all-time passers in conference history.
• Ben Kaczmerek has moved into the starting lineup and is giving Colby just some more spot up shooting that's been important.

Was certainly impressed with Colby when they played in Pepin.

And what an odd place to be for the Mules. At 2-4 in the conference, they are at risk of missing the NESCAC tournament. Yet at 15-5, they are a run away from playing themselves onto the NCAA tournament bubble.

And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if it's the latter.

As Colby Hoops mentioned, with 4 remaining regular season games (at Tufts and Bates, Amherst and Hamilton at home), Colby would probably be favored in 3 of 4 (though I expect all four games to be highly contested). If they run the table and win a game or two in the conference tournament, all of a sudden the Mules are 20-6 and looking damn good!

[nescac1]

Poulton looks at this point like a heavy favorite for Colby's third ROY award in four seasons of play.  Henry Vetter seems like the only other real contender but he's well behind Poulton at this point.

Alex Sobel has one of the earliest locks on both NESCAC POY and DPOY that I can recall.  When was the last time one player won both?  Because I don't see how anyone else is really a contender for either at this point. 

The race for unofficial runner-up, however, is red-hot.  Nicky Johnson, Stephen Baxter, Spencer Spivy, Preston Maccoux, and James McGowan are all in the mix behind Sobel.  I'd expect four of those guys (likely not McGowan given Bowdoin's team struggles) to be on the all-league first-team along with Sobel unless Thoerner or Callahan-Gold get really hot down the stretch and lead their teams to the NESCAC title game. 

Speaking of Baxter, kudos to him for playing all 40 minutes vs. Williams, staying aggressive despite picking up two early fouls.  He's at 999 career points with another year of eligibility remaining.  If he graduates this year, I'm sure a lot of UAA teams would be clamoring for his services next year! 

The Middlebury-Williams-Trinity-Wesleyan battle royale this weekend should be really fun.  As good as Midd has been playing, with those games on the road, no set of results from that quartet of games would surprise me this weekend.  Midd is probably a lock for a Pool C bid with one win this weekend.  Williams would be a near-lock with two and in good position with one.  I think Trinity and Wesleyan both realistically need sweeps to keep their very tenuous Pool C chances alive.  And obviously the games have huge implications for who ends up hosting the first round of the NESCAC tourney. 

[Colby Hoops]

Also, when was the last time the top two leading rebounders were from the same school? Middlebury is absolutely crushing teams on the boards. Third in the country in rebounding margin.

[quicksilver]

Poulton looks at this point like a heavy favorite for Colby's third ROY award in four seasons of play.  Henry Vetter seems like the only other real contender but he's well behind Poulton at this point.

Alex Sobel has one of the earliest locks on both NESCAC POY and DPOY that I can recall.  When was the last time one player won both?  Because I don't see how anyone else is really a contender for either at this point. 

The race for unofficial runner-up, however, is red-hot.  Nicky Johnson, Stephen Baxter, Spencer Spivy, Preston Maccoux, and James McGowan are all in the mix behind Sobel.  I'd expect four of those guys (likely not McGowan given Bowdoin's team struggles) to be on the all-league first-team along with Sobel unless Thoerner or Callahan-Gold get really hot down the stretch and lead their teams to the NESCAC title game. 

Speaking of Baxter, kudos to him for playing all 40 minutes vs. Williams, staying aggressive despite picking up two early fouls.  He's at 999 career points with another year of eligibility remaining.  If he graduates this year, I'm sure a lot of UAA teams would be clamoring for his services next year! 

The Middlebury-Williams-Trinity-Wesleyan battle royale this weekend should be really fun.  As good as Midd has been playing, with those games on the road, no set of results from that quartet of games would surprise me this weekend.  Midd is probably a lock for a Pool C bid with one win this weekend.  Williams would be a near-lock with two and in good position with one.  I think Trinity and Wesleyan both realistically need sweeps to keep their very tenuous Pool C chances alive.  And obviously the games have huge implications for who ends up hosting the first round of the NESCAC tourney.

Unfortunately, Bowdoin's McGowan has been sidelined with a foot or ankle injury . . That is in part why Bowdoin's win over Conn College on Friday was impressive , , 

[nescac1]

Ahh, that's a shame about McGowan.  He's had a great year despite Bowdoin's struggles as a team.

Conn College is definitely a hard team to figure.  Wins vs. Trinity, Tufts, and Bates, and losses to Bowdoin, Colby and Wesleyan.  But that's just how it's gone in NESCAC this year.   

Hamilton is another one --- some really solid wins v. Middlebury, WPI, Trinity, Wesleyan, blowing Amherst out of the gym, but then lose at home by 22 to LaRoche and losing to Salisbury?  They aren't the most consistent team but with Singh, Anderson, Morgan and Rood, they have a lot of guys who can go off on any particular night.    With the most favorable remaining schedule in the league, it seems like they are in a great position to surprisingly grab the second seed in the NESCAC tourney, and could even sneak into first since they have the tie-breaker vs. both Midd and Wesleyan, but as we've seen this year, nothing can be taken for granted in any league game. 

NESCAC as a whole has been really hard to predict this year ...

[toad22]

Ahh, that's a shame about McGowan.  He's had a great year despite Bowdoin's struggles as a team.

Conn College is definitely a hard team to figure.  Wins vs. Trinity, Tufts, and Bates, and losses to Bowdoin, Colby and Wesleyan.  But that's just how it's gone in NESCAC this year.   

Hamilton is another one --- some really solid wins v. Middlebury, WPI, Trinity, Wesleyan, blowing Amherst out of the gym, but then lose at home by 22 to LaRoche and losing to Salisbury?  They aren't the most consistent team but with Singh, Anderson, Morgan and Rood, they have a lot of guys who can go off on any particular night.    With the most favorable remaining schedule in the league, it seems like they are in a great position to surprisingly grab the second seed in the NESCAC tourney, and could even sneak into first since they have the tie-breaker vs. both Midd and Wesleyan, but as we've seen this year, nothing can be taken for granted in any league game. 

NESCAC as a whole has been really hard to predict this year ...

My eyeball view of the Hamilton is that when they play at their best, they are probably the best team in the league. Unfortunately for them, they have been quite inconsistent. Williams needed to play their best game of the season to win at Hamilton. The night before, the Conts knocked off Middlebury. I would not be surprised to see Hamilton win the NESCAC tournament. They are really good.

[SpringSt7]

• Will King remains just a ridiculous passer. He's likely to lead the conference in assists again, and is up to nearly 7 per game in conference play, while once again leading the league in A/TO ratio. He didn't play enough games to qualify last year, but (if you were to remove the playing time requirement last year) he's fairly likely to lead the league in assists and A/TO ratio for every year of his career. Unfortunate that he'll really end up only playing 2.5 years with the Covid year and injuries/illness last year. On a per game basis he's one of the all-time passers in conference history.

A real shame Colby didn't get to play Wesleyan on the road, he could've broken some records. On a serious note, King has the best chance of the current three former rookies of the year---himself, teammate Noah Tyson, and Middlebury's Sam Stevens---to make an all-league team. If none of them do, it would be the first time since at least 2009, if not longer (I got lost trying to keep up in the archives) that none of the active ROYS make an all-league team.

I know this has been mentioned before but it is interesting to see the change in developmental trend. Most ROYs have a history of being go to guys and 1st team candidates as sophomores, most recently Kena Gilmour and Austin Hutcherson, let alone second-team or essentially being an honorable mention. King bucking this trend by making second-team in what I assume to be his Age 22 season would continue the streak but would not change a noticeable trend.

In fairness, Nicky Johnson is probably going to make 1st team as a sophomore and Nate Karren was a 1st team sophomore last year (so was Dylan Thoerner, realistically) so maybe it is a total overreaction, but I'm curious to get everyone's thoughts.

[names jaismith]

Saw the Colby Conn game.  Colby moves the ball better than any team in the league.  So when they're making threes, they can beat anyone. Their big problem is that they aren't half as good on defense. Even Conn, the worst offensive team in the league by a long stretch, got over 70 on them and nearly stole the game when they missed a wide open three with only seconds left down two.  I can see Colby winning all their remaining games or losing all but I bet they do enough to sneak into the playoffs.

[nescac1]

For whatever reason, the two most recent guys who ended up nationally elite players in the league haven't made massive impact as frosh, certainly nowhere near the ROY radar in their respective rookie seasons.  Alex Sobel and Sam Peek were the two best players in the league last year, and Sobel is the best player this year.  Peek played only 11 mpg as a first-year, averaging 3.8 ppg.  Sobel had a very impactful first year for a center, 6-5.5 plus 2 bpg, but he has improved massively each year in the program.  Sobel's numbers were not unusual for a center who ended up as an elite big guy ... rarely do first-year big guys in NESCAC put up big stats, just too many talented older big guys in the league.  But Peek was a guy who was just a classic late bloomer, like a James Heskett ...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Sobel was very clearly talented as a freshman, but he lacked minutes, both because he was playing behind older guys and he struggled to keep the fouls under control.

I remember clearly talking to one coach in the old CAC about the rookie of the year award.  He discounted it completely, since often the best freshmen don't get minutes.  He said, "the best freshmen in our league every year is probably stuck at the end of Christopher Newport's bench."

The NESCAC is a much deeper league, so there's never going to be one team monopolizing talent, but it's very true that, often, the number one factor in winning rookie of the year is not talent, but opportunity.

[nescac1]

That's a fair point, Ryan.  Williams and Amherst over the years regularly had guys who barely played as frosh who went on to become all-American players (now for some of those guys, it was purely developmental, but others could surely have put up big stats in different situations) ... for Williams, looking at the list of all-American players from 1996 to the present, Troy Whittington, Michael Mayer, James Wang, Geoff Chapin, Ben Coffin, Matt Hunt, James Heskett all were bit players, if they played at all, as frosh. Some of those guys certainly could have been ROY in the right situation.  I can't say for Amherst because I can't find a list of all-Americans on their site but there are surely a bunch in the same situation. 

The only times Amherst or Williams guys were rookies of the year since 2001 (which the league archives go back to): Mike Crotty, Andrew Olson, Aaron Toomey, Johnny McCarthy, Duncan Robinson - obviously a pretty stellar group of players!  and Crotty and Olson each had to share the ROY honors (for the true NESCAC trivia buffs, who did they have to share their respective honors with?).  So Williams has had fewer ROY in total, and Amherst the same number, as Colby will likely have in just the last four seasons. 

Oh, and while looking at those archives, I confirmed that at least this century no one has been both POY and DPOY.  I have to think Sobel ends that streak ... while there are some good defenders in the league, Nicky Johnson, Spencer Spivy, Ryker Vance, and so on, none of them are remotely in Sobel's class in terms of defensive impact.  He is an absolute menace on that end of the floor.   

[SpringSt7]

I agree with both points but I am not necessarily suggesting that the ROY has to become POY—Gilmour is the only one who has done that since Toomey I believe (although it's hard to believe Austin Hutcherson wouldn't have joined him). It's just odd that some of these guys have not developed into all-league guys.

It's also not necessarily limited to the freshmen either. Jack Farrell, Grant Robinson, Nate Karren, Dylan Thoerner (as a junior but playing in his second season just like Karren), all guys in recent memory that made 1st team all-league as sophomores and did not or have not returned to that level. Now that's a small sample size and you can write some of them off for injuries or different team dynamics, but my overall point is just that it used to be a much more linear development trajectory in the league where every good player continued to improve every year and that seems to have stagnated a little bit.

[Painter66]

This an interesting issue, and I agree that minutes play a big role in ROY. But I want to defend Sam Stevens, last year's ROY who many expected to become a national player this year. I watch every Middlebury game, and Sam is still a great player, but his shooting touch has been an issue all season. He was phenomenal last year as he led the team to an 18-6 record as a freshman, along with Sobel,Osher, and Brennan. They are all back and Sam has struggled with his shot. As a result, the has cut back this long range jump shots, and concentrated on penetration, rebounding, defense, and team play. It is a tough experience, but he has done a great job. He is still the go-to guy when there is no easy pass to Alex, and takes on this role willingly. And, if they foul him, he makes the shots. I get that his stats will likely keep him off the all-star teams that are being discussed here, but he is still one of the best players in the NESCAC. And, he could well the guy who steps up in the NESCAC tourney.

[lumbercat]

Colby is a fun team to watch, when they heat up on threes they are tough to beat. Strahorn has done a great job recruiting shooters. That new gym and Athletic facility have been a great draw for kids to Colby. He's capitalized on that and recruited extremely well. In a pinch, if Strahorn had to choose between a talented big man and a top shooter believe he'll take the shooter every time.

Mules have taken more 3's than any other NESCAC team for 4 consecutive years. They took 250 more 3's than anyone else in league in their best year in 2019-20 and averaged almost 40%.

This year 120 more 3 attempts than any other team.

They take more and make more 3's than anyone else. Certainly all about the Tre with the Blue and Grey.

Mules shot well below their 3pt average in their recent 4 straight league losses. Can we chalk that up as primarily due to better Defense?