MBB: NESCAC

[Bucket]

Colby is a fun team to watch, when they heat up on threes they are tough to beat. Strahorn has done a great job recruiting shooters. That new gym and Athletic facility have been a great draw for kids to Colby. He's capitalized on that and recruited extremely well. In a pinch, if Strahorn had to choose between a talented big man and a top shooter believe he'll take the shooter every time.

Mules have taken more 3's than any other NESCAC team for 4 consecutive years. They took 250 more 3's than anyone else in league in their best year in 2019-20 and averaged almost 40%.

This year 120 more 3 attempts than any other team.

They take more and make more 3's than anyone else. Certainly all about the Tre with the Blue and Grey.

Mules shot well below their 3pt average in their recent 4 straight league losses. Can we chalk that up as primarily due to better Defense?

Doubt you'll see this anywhere else in college hoops:

The Mules' 16-player roster lists 15 guards and 1 guard/forward.

[nescac1]

Colby is leaning even more into playing small and relying on the 3-ball, going forward, it seems like.  They following guys will be joining the program next year:

Marcos Montiel, 6'3 G, Brooks School
Sam Hinman, 6'0 G, St. Sebastian's
Matt Lamy, 6'4 G, St. Paul's School
Kam Rodriguez, 5'9 G, Berkshire School
Savion Stroud, 6'2 G, St. Paul's School

I'm guessing all those dudes can shoot it, but man, that's an average of about 6'1 across five recruits.  Unless they add more guys to the five they already have locked down, that's two years in a row with no one bigger than 6'4 in the recruiting class.  And from the current rotation they graduate a group with pretty good size: 6'6 Wirkala, 6'5 Obi, 6'5 King, 6'3 Butler, and 6'3 Tyson (who plays a lot bigger than his size) (by the way, it's laughable to list Obi, Lawson and Wirkala as guards, just because you shoot from outside doesn't make you a guard, but whatever). 

[lumbercat]

All New England kids. I don't think Strahorn is missing on his targeted recruits.

[Colby Hoops]

Lawson and Obi are basically centers, it's nonsense that they aren't listed as forwards at least.

I would say I have some serious concerns next year given the size of the team. Lawson will be the only big of any sort, and he's not an elite rebounder or a defensive stopper. Losing Tyson is massive -- he can guard bigger players and is one of the best rebounders in the conference. Losing him (plus Obi who is their other main rebounder) leaves Colby very small and makes it very hard to improve the defense. Even King is a big guard and a good rebounder. It makes it that Colby will have to shoot at an elite, elite level to have success -- which is just tough.

[lumbercat]

If he wants to, I don't think Strahorn should encounter any problems landing a quality big man or two- but I've been wondering about that for last 4 or 5 years. He's got his own scheme and I can't knock 24-4 a few years ago.

[names jaismith]

Predictions for next to last regular season weekend
FRIDAY
Amherst 62   Conn 55
Bates 76  Bowdoin 63
Wiliams 72  Trinity 66
Tufts 75 Colby 65
Middlebury 74  Wesleyan 63
SATURDAY
Tufts 81  Bowdoin 61
Bates71 Colby 70
Middlebury 72 Trinity 68
Williams 68  Wesleyan 62

SUNDAY
Hamilton 66  Conn 52

[Hamilton4]

Mr. Jaismith, you didn't pick a single upset, I must say that you've been very accurate with your predictions this season. I think both Williams and Middlebury have their work cut out for them with Trinity and Wesleyan on back to back days. I agree with all of your picks with the exception that someone will lose to Trinity this weekend, I'm just not sure if it will be Williams or Middlebury, could be both .

[Hamilton4]

Early Conference Standings Prediction:

1. Hamilton
2. Middlebury
3. Williams
4. Wesleyan
5. Trinity
6. Tufts
7. Colby
8. Amherst
9. Connecticut
10. Bates
11. Bowdoin

[names jaismith]

Well I am giving a nod to Bates..They've suffered some painful losses and it's time for the basketball gods to smile on them.  Hard to predict the NESCAC games. So many of the teams have munched on outside competition, yet league wins are like gold to the vast majority.  I wouldn't be surprised if the final tally saw Middlebury with some separation on top, Hamilton and Williams a couple steps behind, and then a ton of teams in the 5-5 area.  For me, the only teams out of it are Bates, who could surprise in the final two weeks, and Bowdoin, who clearly can't beat anyone except Conn. Conn is still just barely alive, but they are so limited on offense that their margin for error is the slimmest of any contender.  For me, the moist disappointing team is Amherst. They have tons of size and enough perimeter talent to beat anyone, but they pretty much tanked in the second half vs Hamilton. I don't get it. Amherst is the definition of a destination school for smart, athletic kids who might get looks from the Ivies, yet choose Amherst. Irregardless of how they finish, they will likely be disappointed with the overall body of work.

[SpringSt7]

There is a real chance, maybe like 25%, that Hamilton goes 8-2 and wins the NESCAC regular season, and doesn't make the NCAA tournament. They will need to beat Colby and somehow hope that that win over Colby is a regionally ranked win, and then probably win a game or two in the NESCAC tournament to have a shot.

[names jaismith]

Agree.  They may well be in the "dreaded deserved to but didn't" category on selection day.  Also, Adam Stockwell deserves consideration for COY if Hamilton reaches that 8-2 mark, which is very possible since they will be big favorites vs Conn at home and Bowdoin away.  Only Colby away would seem to be a serious challenge. Colby is the more potent offensive team but Hamilton is far superior defensively and on the boards, the latter being Colby's biggest weakness.

[middhoops]

Getting near the end of the regular season and the bubble teams have quite a contrast of schedules.

Wes is 13-7/4-2, 2-4 vRRO.  Trinity is 15-5/3-3, 2-2 vRRO.

According to the Pasteur ratings, Wesleyan can possibly take one more loss before having no chance at a Pool C bid.  Sweeping Midd/Williams/Tufts and Bates, then winning the conference tournament would be a memorable accomplishment.
Trinity can lose one more game, possibly two and still have a chance at a Pool C bid.  They face the same murderers row as Wesleyan.  So they too have to win the rest of their games, but maybe lose the conference championship game to get in, I'm guessing.

Williams (17-3/4-3, 2-2 vRRO) can lose 2 or 3 more games and still get in.  Middlebury's statistical resume (90% WP, 6-1 in league and 6-2 vRRO) means they could lose probably four more games and still get in.

Hamilton is in a potentially bizarre situation.  They stand at 14-7/5-2, 3-5 vRRO.  Hamilton's remaining games are at Bowdoin and Colby, CC at home With a sweep, they're 17-7/8-2 and probably 4-5 vRRO.  If Midd stumbles, Hamilton could be regular season champs.  Even with that, Hamilton probably has to win out including the conference tourney.

Williams and Middlebury are going to Connecticut this weekend hoping to improve their chances of hosting tourney games, while Wesleyan and Trinity are playing for their season survival. 
Beating Midd, Williams and Tufts?  Those quality wins when it really matters would look very, very good for a team on the bubble.  That would a big haul of vRROs. 
And, while I think Massey's computer has a faulty bug*, it gives both teams decent chances of winning these home games.
Got to love NESCAC bball.


*Massey gave Midd a 30% chance of beating Williams and 40% chance against Keene St.  Then after those road wins plus Tufts it still picks Wesleyan and only today upgraded the Trinity game to a tie.  Also see what Massey's computer does in rating North Park from the CCIW.  Truly bizarre.  (stepping off soap box now...)

[lumbercat]

A quick comparison on current 3 pointing shooting percentages -

(This is actually an OFF year for Colby on 3s in comparison with 3 of their last 4 years)

Colby: 34.0
Purdue: 33.9
Houston: 34.8
Tennessee 33.2

Colby has no game in the paint. You can only back door and pick and roll so much........Are other NESCAC opponents lax on defending Mules outside on 3's or do the Mules execute the outside game and move the ball so well they offset opposing defenses?
Wonder if the Mules could be vulnerable to any team that really sells out on defending threes.

[Old Guy]

Williams and Middlebury are going to Connecticut this weekend hoping to improve their chances of hosting tourney games, while Wesleyan and Trinity are playing for their season survival. 
Beating Midd, Williams and Tufts?  Those quality wins when it really matters would look very, very good for a team on the bubble.  That would a big haul of vRROs. 
And, while I think Massey's computer has a faulty bug*, it gives both teams decent chances of winning these home games.
Got to love NESCAC bball.

*Massey gave Midd a 30% chance of beating Williams and 40% chance against Keene St.  Then after those road wins plus Tufts it still picks Wesleyan and only today upgraded the Trinity game to a tie.  Also see what Massey's computer does in rating North Park from the CCIW.  Truly bizarre.  (stepping off soap box now...)

Good points, Midd Hoops, "camped out" (as you are) "in the Arizona desert" while we hunker down here in the frozen Northeast: minus 4 in VT as I write this in mid-day, going down to minus 20 tonight — it's a "polar vortex" (good name for a band!). It makes sense to me that Midd might not be favored in these games despite its record. Trinity is 9-1 in its own gym (Wes 5-2). The Connecticuts will be formidable, on the road especially.

Before we get to the Cardinals, I did want to write briefly about the remarkable Tufts game last Saturday. Middlebury played very well, though spotting Tufts a 17-4 lead in the first 4 1/2 minutes. It was Senior Day and the starters were inserted at that point. That's a little misleading as Tufts exploded at the outset, couldn't miss, and the senior five is not at all a bad unit, with Sobel underneath and Goldman in the backcourt; the other three seniors (Zodda, Carlson, Shinn) all played significant minutes last year, before the frosh reinforcements arrived this fall. From that point in the game, the Panthers outscored the Jumbos 35-18 to go up by five at the half, and 68-37 overall. An impressive win. The man-to-man defense was terrific (offense comes and goes; defense comes every night, as the cliche goes).

At the half of the game, Jeff Brown was given a well-deserved award by the CBOA (college basketball officials):
"Middlebury's Russell L. Reilly Head Coach of Men's Basketball Jeff Brown was honored by the College Basketball Officials Association on Saturday before the contest against Tufts. New England College Officiating Coordinator of Men's Basketball, Larry Last and Executive Director of the College Basketball Officials Association, Tom O'Connor, presented Brown with the Sam Schoenfeld Sportsmanship Award.

The award, in the judgment of the College Basketball Officials membership, is awarded annually to a college or university, its head coach, players, and spectators who best exemplify, "the highest degree of sportsmanship, character, and ethics."
https://athletics.middlebury.edu/news/2023/1/30/mens-basketball-jeff-brown-honored-with-prestigious-cboa-sam-schoenfeld-sportsmanship-award.aspx

[AmherstRules]

In response to Jefffan about the inconsistent play of the mammoths: I was at both games this weekend. Amherst had a height advantage over both Wesleyan and Trinity. They couldn't take advantage of it. Easy shots wouldn't fall. Is it is a matter of concentration, confidence? At the end of the Wesleyan game, Amherst has trouble getting the ball inbounds and nearly lost except for some clutch free throws. They have had trouble with inbounding early in the season. Wouldn't that be something the team would practice and get right? Turnovers and the inability to finish easy shots in the first half of the Trinity game were pathetic. At half time, you could hear Coach Sears screaming through the public bathroom walls which separate the bathrooms from the Amherst men's locker room. The yelling didn't help. The men didn't respond. It was an ugly game from Amherst. From my perspective, it doesn't look like Sears has found a lineup with which he is comfortable. The starting lineup plays 5 minutes and he substitutes a new lineup. In many games , 10-11 players play around 20 minutes or less. I don't see any consistency on the court. Is it frustrating to play for Sears? It's frustrating trying to figure out a game plan, wasting all the height, and wondering if Amherst practices inbounding the ball. it is difficult to watch a season drift away.

It's a hockey substitution thing he's can been reading about. System teams do it all the time.