MBB: NESCAC

SpringSt7 · February 05, 2023, 02:28:02 PM

I can definitely see Amherst giving Colby a game. They have a huge size advantage but their guards are quick as well and can make life tough for King and Poulton. They should get tons of offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities.

For whatever it's worth, Massey has Amherst's defense ranked 9th in the country and their offense ranked 318th.

names jaismith · February 05, 2023, 03:49:42 PM

Hamilton over Conn by 10 with a very good second half. Conn without their starting point guard in this one. Credit to Hamilton for being the best team in the league on their own court. They will be hard to beat in Clinton. Stockwell gets my vote for COY hands down.

SpringSt7 · February 05, 2023, 05:31:25 PM

If Stockwell wins 2 COYs in 5 seasons without winning the league while every other year since 2015 has gone to the coach of the championship winning team I would be pretty confused.

names jaismith · February 05, 2023, 06:11:14 PM

COY is too often deeded to the coach of the team that wins the title. It should go to the coach that makes the whole more than the sum of the parts. Sometimes that is the coach of the championship team. Sometimes it isn't. This year it's Stockwell whether Hamilton wins the championship or not. He's done the best job of any coach in the league, and there are lots of good ones.

(I do not know him. I did not attend Hamilton or any other NESCAC school.)

SpringSt7 · February 05, 2023, 06:44:54 PM

It happens way too often but I am more so projecting out the coach vote and expressing a little frustration due to the fact that he won it over App in 2018 for reasons I don't really know when Williams won the NESCAC without its best player.

nescac1 · February 05, 2023, 06:58:18 PM

Speaking of league awards I think it's going to be a crazy tough year for all league voters. I think Sobel, Spivy and Maccoux are locke or close to locks for all league first team. After that it feels pretty wide open.

You could go with McGowan, Callahan-Gold or Baxter but they've all missed time / are currently injured, and haven't had team success. If Hamilton wins the league maybe they get someone but would that be Rood, Singh or Morgan? All seem about even and none of have been consistently dominant guys, but any would fit nicely on second team. Nicky Johnson is in the mix but I don't see Wesleyan getting two first team guys. Other names to watch are Karren and Porter from Williams, Thoerner from Tufts and David Murray from Conn, but all would need a big finish to the year. That's 11 guys for two spots and my guess is it will come down to play in the league tourney.

ROY is a very close two-man race between Vetter and Poulton. Both having very deserving seasons. Hansen, Lee, Flaks, McKersie have had solid impacts on ranked teams, but none have played nearly as big a role as those two guys.

SpringSt7 · February 05, 2023, 07:30:26 PM

McGowan got hurt and his team immediately won their first 2 league games of the year. That removes him from this list entirely for me.

My list right now would be as follows, and I don't feel great about it

1st: Sobel, Spivy, Maccoux, Murray, Thoerner
2nd: Rood, Karren, Johnson, Callahan-Gold, Singh

Murray is having a 1st team year statistically---15-9 on 52% shooting with a block as well. If his jersey said Amherst or Williams on it no one would bat an eye. Plus they have Williams and Midd next week which will kind of decide things anyways, either he plays well and they steal one or his case looks a lot worse at 4-6.

Karren and Thoerner are somewhat reputation picks but Thoerner is still having a strong season and they have a top 4 seed. Hamilton doesn't have a first teamer but they get two on the second team. Johnson with the beefed up home assists I just can't put on 1st team over Maccoux and they don't deserve two at 5-3. Callahan-Gold is having a similar season to Thoerner but who else would you put? Can't give Williams 3 guys and Midd doesn't have a second deserving option. I expect him to play well down the stretch as well.

nescac1 · February 05, 2023, 09:01:00 PM

Can't argue with any of that SpringSt.

Kudos to Spivy, Maccoux and Rood - three guys who weren't in any sort of all league conversations until this season, never better than a third option on their squads, and who just got better and better each year. All three are two-way players, big, physical dudes who have figured out how to use their size to impose their will on the interior while also shooting very well from 3 in league play. After Sobel, who is the runaway leader, they are the top three players during league play in FTA per game, which reflects how aggressive all three are in terms of drawing contact in the paint. Just like the way those guys play.

midrangepullup · February 05, 2023, 10:13:57 PM

Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 05, 2023, 07:30:26 PM
Johnson with the beefed up home assists I just can't put on 1st team over Maccoux and they don't deserve two at 5-3.

I definitely hear you from an all-league case perspective but man on the eye test Johnson's the 2nd best player to me in the league. The way he controls the game on both sides is incredible—a nightmare for opposing pg's every game.

nescac1 · February 06, 2023, 09:00:00 AM

I've been a Nicky Johnson fan from day one in the league. But ... Spencer Spivy in league play to date: 17-7-2 on a ridiculous 59/50/79 plus 2 blocks + steals while playing consistent high level D on, usually, the toughest opposing wing or big guard.

Nicky Johnson: 15-5-6 on 46-38-76 plus 1 spg. Also an excellent defender but he's not 6'6 like Spivy. I thought defensively he could afford to be more aggressive and hence more impactful last year when he wasn't so critical offensively on every possession.

Very clear advantage for Spivy overall, even without considering, as has been discussed before, Johnson's assist stats are inflated by generous home tabulation (case in point: 18 total assists v Williams/Midd v. only 7 at Amherst/Hamilton).

I'd say Spivy has clearly been the second best player in league play. Even when Williams was otherwise struggling in January, he's brought it every single game. Maccoux v Johnson is a closer call but this year I'd narrowly take Maccoux (including with eye test). I feel like with his size and strength plus much-improved touch he's just very hard for opposing wings to deal with.

Colby Hoops · February 06, 2023, 10:31:43 AM

I think Johnson very clearly over Maccoux. Even if you think Johnson's assists are inflated, they would have to be absurdly inflated to move below second in the league in assists and he barely turns the ball over -- very impressive given his usage. In conference play Johnson is shooting an identical percentage to Maccoux, averages more rebounds, far more assists and they basically have the same number of turnovers. Johnson is also top 5 in the league in steals.

I get that tracking assists can be inconsistent, but I think there's generally not enough credit to the elite passers. Averaging 5.5+ assists in the Nescac happens about as often as averaging 19+ points -- and almost anyone who averages that many points makes all-league.

I don't really have strong opinions on all-league overall -- I think there's a lot of somewhat similar players after the top 2-3. I will say that I think there's too much focus on team success compared with individual success. Don't really think the whole "this team doesn't deserve two slots" holds a lot of merit -- it's basically just crediting players for having better or worse supporting casts.

On the coaching side that argument works, because these coaches are also the ones recruiting their team as well.

names jaismith · February 06, 2023, 12:23:48 PM

Some way too early predictions for the final regular season weekend
FRIDAY
Hamilton 70 Bowdoin 57
Midd 70 Conn 59
Colby 78 Amherst 63
Trinity 81 Bates 63
Wesleyan 71 Tufts 68
SATURDAY
Wesleyan 79 Bates 62
Hamilton 68 Colby 65
Trinity 77 Tufts 70
Amherst 67 Bowdoin 64
SUNDAY
Williams 74 Conn 59

Hamilton4 · February 06, 2023, 01:28:37 PM

It should be a real slugfest between Colby and Amherst on Friday night, whoever wins that game will have the final slot in the NESCAC tourney.

names jaismith · February 06, 2023, 02:08:50 PM

I have seen Amherst play many times. Just don't see how they can beat a Colby team - on the road - whose playoff hopes depend on this weekend. Can they keep it close? Sure. Win ? I doubt it.
I do think they will beat Pratt this week though. My high school team could beat Pratt.

jumpshot · February 06, 2023, 02:33:31 PM

names jaismith: Since you've seen amHerst play many times, you are undoubtedly aware of the jeffs decades-long policy of scheduling only non-conference scrimmages, not games. Pratt has won just 10 or 22% of its last 44 games, thereby an excellent choice for an open invitation to exercise in LeFrak. Perhaps amHerst would consider incorporating your high school's team into free-play ....