MBB: NESCAC

[D3Parent1]

One of the things I really like about this board is that there is almost always a positive slant to the discussion.   Teams are rarely "bad". Instead they need to focus on recruiting or they have had some injuries, or the coach is new and building a program, or they just graduated a ton of talent.  Likewise the players are rarely "bad".  Instead they are young / had an off night / coming off an injury/ playing below their ability/ Getting better each game / developing.    I don't think anyone roots for a team to loose....instead everyone seems to want their team to win. There is a distinction.   I have been reading these boards for a few years now, and I look forward to checking in on them a few times a week during the season. What this board does is important.  It does add more meaning to the games and the league.   I like the casual fans cheering on their team and I like the way frequent "posters" discuss match-ups and how games are broken down.  Thank you.  Very exciting time of year for NESCAC and D3 Hoops!

[middhoops]

Dunno, Mr. Jaismith.  Hamilton sure has some nice wins, but saying they're a better team than Tufts? The Jumbos have a statistical argument to be made.
Tufts' WP% is higher and their vRRO is better while Hamilton's SOS is higher.  And Tufts has the head to head win.
The tournament committee is likely to lean toward the Jumbos, no?

[thebear]

Ephs complete an undefeated nonconference season with a 63-57 win over SUNY New Paltz.
Probably best to forget this game ever happened for everyone not named Alex Lee but no such thing as a bad win! And congrats to Coach App, his first 20 win regular season as head coach. Hard to believe.

Food for thought, that same exact New Paltz team lost 4 days ago at Oswego by a 112-53 margin.  Oswego's five starters played 95 minutes.

[Painter66]

The real story may be that Oswego is really good, and very dangerous. I came from upstate NY so I follow the Sunyac and other upstate leagues, and this is a team to be taken very seriously if your team happens to draw them in the first weekend of the NCAA. I am wearing a Middlebury flannel vest as I write this, so my concerns are transparent. No one should sleep on RPI or Brockport either. We learned that the hard way 3 years ago.

[Bucket]

Dunno, Mr. Jaismith.  Hamilton sure has some nice wins, but saying they're a better team than Tufts? The Jumbos have a statistical argument to be made.
Tufts' WP% is higher and their vRRO is better while Hamilton's SOS is higher.  And Tufts has the head to head win.
The tournament committee is likely to lean toward the Jumbos, no?

There really isn't a choice between the two for the  "tournament committee" . If one is ranked higher in the final regional rankings, that's the choice. Or both after that first team is picked. Or neither.

[nescac1]

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1623663115211780097?s=46&t=TKdpWZ6ilEQvHqwLXn3rMA

This is an interesting post.  The Nescac picture looks like this for Pool C:

Midd and Williams already look safely in and the only question is will they be hosting a pod, or even more (I think if Midd wins out including the league tourney they are hosting through Fort Wayne, and Williams may well be in the same boat, especially if they beat Midd in doing so). 

Tufts needs to do a bit more but is in very good shape.  Two more wins of any kind and they are a lock. 

Here is where it gets interesting.  Hamilton, Wesleyan, and Trinity are all likely in if they win out between now and the league title game.  Colby has a shot under the same scenario. 

So, if one non-Williams/Midd/Tufts team gets hot and either (1) wins the league tourney or (2) goes on a winning streak falling just short, Nescac likely gets four teams in.  Hamilton probably has the best shot of doing so, but it would not shock me if any of the others do as well, as Wesleyan, Trin and Colby all have two home games this weekend and anything can happen in the league tourney. 

It's almost impossible but the league could get five under the following scenario: Wesleyan and Hamilton both win out until league title game, which Wesleyan wins.  Tufts beats Trinity and wins a first round game in league tourney.  I think that would do it with Hamilton as fifth team in.

[midrangepullup]

Although not likely, I think it's still more likely than you may think. The formula would essentially be Midd and Williams, which are essentially auto-ins, Tufts, would win out and win in the quarterfinals, Hamilton, would need to win out and make the championship, and a random team(Trin, Wes, Colby, Conn) wins the tournament.

Realistically, I think there's a decent chance of 4 bids. The Continentals really just have to not slip up until the championship.

Maybe I'm seeing it with rose-colored glasses but that doesn't seem all that unrealistic to me

[nescac1]

midrangepullup, I think that is indeed the scenario for 4 at-large bids for NESCAC.  I do think Hamilton would be on the bubble in that scenario but probably just barely squeezes in to the tourney thanks to some real high-quality wins.  But I think the odds of a Hamilton-random team championship game, which Hamilton then loses, are at best 1 in five.  It would be mean a lot of road wins in the NESCAC tourney and both of NESCAC's legit top 25 teams flaming out early in the tourney.  But, certainly not implausible, as we've seen all year no one is safe in basically any league game.   

[midrangepullup]

midrangepullup, I think that is indeed the scenario for 4 at-large bids for NESCAC.  I do think Hamilton would be on the bubble in that scenario but probably just barely squeezes in to the tourney thanks to some real high-quality wins.  But I think the odds of a Hamilton-random team championship game, which Hamilton then loses, are at best 1 in five.  It would be mean a lot of road wins in the NESCAC tourney and both of NESCAC's legit top 25 teams flaming out early in the tourney.  But, certainly not implausible, as we've seen all year no one is safe in basically any league game.   

Definitely hear you, there have been a lot of head-scratchers this year, but all the moving parts make 5 pretty unlikely. But I feel like the scenario with 4 bids is actually pretty likely. Hamilton's been tough to beat at home and if they take care of business(Good chance) this weekend they'll be home all tourney. Tufts just needs to take care of business this weekend(Good chance) and not get upset in the first round(good chance).

[SpringSt7]

A lot for Hamilton in particular, but also Tufts to an extent (assuming they will be a lower seed), will be in the luck of the conference tournament draw. A win for Hamilton over Colby or Trinity would be much more beneficial than a win over Amherst or Conn, and then they will need the reseeding to shake out in a way that gives them a crack at Midd or Williams or each other. They need the wins but it's also going to help them boost their SOS. At the same time, a bad loss would sink them. Any loss would be near fatal but at least if they lose to a tournament team they will still have a chance.

[nescac1]

Yeah Amherst kind of screwed over the league by losing six non league games mostly to unimpressive opponents.  Had Amherst handled Springfield, Lynchburg, Santa Cruz, Colby Sawyer and a down Yeshiva team, everyone would get a nice bump in SOS (especially Williams and Wesleyan). 

Best outcome for the league as a whole would be Amherst, Bates and Bowdoin out of the league tourney.  Then every league tourney game helps SOS and most would involve a game featuring 2 potential RRO. 

[names jaismith]

I'm not sure that there are that many "head scratchers" in the NESCAC. (Aside from how Amherst can be so inconsistent.) I've seen a lot of D3 basketball and in the leagues that are top tier nationally, even the teams that finish in the bottom third of their league would arguably be at least in the top half of a middling league.  Every NESCAC team has some quality players who are capable of a good performance. Many of the games are very competitive; final scores can be deceptive as often the winning team will pull away in the last few minutes.  Add to that the fact that, in league play, each team gets only one shot at the other teams, it makes every game just a bit more important. I really liked the format of the league tournament last year which included all of the teams.  Sure, it was necessitated by COVID, but since NESCAC is not home and away it just seemed right to include everyone.  All the more since NESCAC schools already play one game less than the 25 allowed everyone else.

[Old Guy]

So before the consequential games of this weekend, I want to go back, briefly, to last weekend to the (also) consequential Middlebury games in CT — the 89-85 loss to Wesleyan and the 65-64 OT win at Trinity.

Very unusual game at Wes: Middlebury was down by 25 at one point in the first half and 21 at the half, running in quicksand while the Cardinal players had traded jerseys with the Celtics — then the Panthers put up 60 in the second half. Though we got it down to 3 pts halfway through the half (behind the 3-pt shooting of diminutive Evan Flaks), it never felt like we would prevail, as Wes quickly went back up by double digits (we made a couple threes as time ran out).

The Trinity game was an old-fashioned grinder. Good to get the win, for sure. Midd seemed less effective in their man defense in than is normally the case. Sobel, in both games, was often guarding on the perimeter, not in the paint. This was his most modest effort of the year (10 points, 14 boards, 3 assists, 2 blocks: not too shabby!), I'm not smart enough to know whether Sobel was a bit off or Cosgrove had a good plan — but I have a theory: David Brennan!

Brennan was sick. He tried to post, but was ineffectual: didn't start at Wes and had 2 points and 2 boards; hardly played in the second half vs Trin and not at all in the OT (replaced by frosh Edward Witherington), had a bucket and one rebound. It's an understatement to say he's important. I was about to assert that he's our second most important player, but that would slight Stevens and Osher. Brennan is a favorite to all fans who admire extraordinary effort. He is relentless on the boards: second in the league to Sobel in rebounds, first in the league in floor burns. Loose balls R US! It seems Brennan emerges with every contested ball. No wasted effort, no false elan, no playing to the crowd, no flops, he just goes to work, lunchpail hero. To suggest that Sobel's performance might have been affected by the absence of his wingman is reasonable. We sure hope Brennan's health has improved, though we do appreciate the efforts of the frosh, McKersie and Witherington, in picking up the slack in CT.

Responding to the suggestion that Sobel double-dribbled on the winning hoop at Trinity: I didn't see it, though I am hardly an objective viewer viewing the live stream; in close games; I am pacing in my living room with my eyes closed half the time. I asked a Midd friend (not a fanatic, Colby grad and player) who was at the game and this was his response: "I saw the ref signal that the ball had been tipped (deflected loose), making another dribble legal. No outrage from the Trinity bench." Good enough for me.

No one here in VT taking ConnCollege lightly down there, not with their league wins over Tufts, Trinity, Bates, Amherst, and tight 4 point losses to Colby and Wesleyan. Big weekend! Go Panthers.

[Painter66]

I want to second the thoughts of my old friend, and one team mate, on the importance of Middlebury's game at Conn College. Tim Sweeney is a terrific young coach who built Hobart into a real contender. He will do the same at Conn. He may have been who another team should have considered. As a Midd guy again wearing Panther gear, this game cannot be underestimated. Without Brennan last week, we were fortunate to win one game, one that we really needed. But a win tomorrow means that we will go to the NCAA tourney regardless of what happens in the Hamilton games. Clearly, we would like to get the NESCAC tourney games at home, and a possible golden rail, but that is a topic for next week. On to the best weekend of D3 basketball!

[names jaismith]

As far as the Midd/Conn game goes, as I said I think Conn will be hard pressed to stay with a motivated Midd team in this one.  Yes, they have been super competitive against strong teams, and not just in the NESCAC.  They stayed right with Emory in Atlanta in December.  But that was with their starting point guard, who had been carrying a huge load of both scoring and running the offense.  He's did not play against Hamilton and looks like he's out for the weekend.  Conn is the only team in the league that plays mostly zone, and they'll have to slow the pace even more to stay in it.  I think they'll fight hard but Middlebury is deserving of their ranking and will win by double digits.