MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Conn is on a really good trajectory.  They were 4-20 in Sweeney's first year.  Then 10-11, now 13-9.  With no seniors on the current roster, and a really strong rising senior class, there is a chance for them to be competing at a high level next year.  One area for improvement that could really help is that two of their top three guys in terms of FTAs are shooting below 45 percent from the line.  That's a lot of free points left on the table ...

One thing I do note is that Sweeney's first recruiting class was absolutely loaded: five of their top eight scorers are from that class alone (one took a COVID year so not all five are listed as the same class).  His last two classes have brought in no one over 6'4, and only two guys per class who seem like rotation players, with Schainfield the only major impact sort of guy.  He could really use another big (both in numbers and size) recruiting class next year if Conn wants to continue to be competitive after next year's seniors graduate. 

[names jaismith]

Agree on observations about Conn.  They know what they are doing so I'd be very surprised if this next class did not include a couple impact recruits.  If they can add another good perimeter player or two and a wing, both of who can contribute immediately, they can jump up a level in the league.

It's sometimes hard to get a big class when there are no seniors on the roster, so we'll see.  In any event the improvement has been remarkable as they are now undoubtedly respected by the other teams in the league.

And ye, they are a horrid free throw shooting team.  Not a plus.

[SpringSt7]

Tufts-Wesleyan combine for 93 points on 14-24 shooting from 3 in the first half. Thoerner has 17 and Ravetz has 21. Fun one

[nescac1]

Amherst, Bates and Bowdoin are out. 

Hamilton clinches with a win v Colby.  If they lose seems like a ton of possibilities for one seed depending on how Wes and Williams do.  I think very hard for Midd to get it since lose tiebreakers to either Hamilton or Wes. 

Two through eight seeds seem like a total crapshoot right now.  What a wild season in Nescac!

[Conts Fan]

I don't recall a season where there's not a team in the top 8 I'd say I felt comfortable playing in the first round. What's the tiebreaker if Hamilton, Midd, Williams, and Wesleyan are all 7-3?

[toad22]

What a wild game in New London! Conn stopped Middlebury dead in their tracks. That 2-3 zone caused them fits. The shooting for both teams was abysmal, but Conn was better in the second half. Tomorrow could bring more chaos. The Williams/Conn game on Sunday should be a great game to watch, though I am very wary of Conn. They really disrupt their opponent. Hopefully the Ephs maintain their cool and prevail.

[Hamilton4]

3-way or more tie:

Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).

Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).

Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).

Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).

Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order.
Comparisons shall be made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.

If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.

Coin flip (or similar random action involving all tied teams).

Note: In case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria above will be applied in order until a team is (or teams are) separated. At that point, the process begins anew (returning to the first criteria) with the remaining teams. The process is continued until the tie is eventually broken. In cases where only a random action will break the tie of three or more teams, the random action will be applied to all teams involved in the tie. For example, if three teams are tied and only a random action (pulling names out of a hat) will break the tie, each name will be pulled and seeded in order of being pulled. Also, in the event that there are two (or more) groups of teams tied at different spots in the standings and the only criteria left that can be used to break those ties is a coin flip/random action, the coin flip/random action used to break the tie of one group (to put teams in rank order) will not affect the tie breaking procedures of the other group(s) of tied teams.

[SpringSt7]

Amherst, Bates and Bowdoin are out. 

Weird nugget---with Williams and Amherst officially not playing next week (something that has felt like an inevitability the last few years), Williams senior David Elien will become the first Williams player to graduate with a winning record vs. Amherst (5-3) since I believe 2011. His classmates Spencer Spivy and Ryan Moon won't join him however as they went 0-3 vs. Amherst as freshman when Elien, who did not take a fifth year, was not on the team. So they will have to wait another year for an entire class to graduate with a winning record but David holds the record on his own!

If Williams, Hamilton, Middlebury, and Wesleyan all tie at 7-3 I believe the tiebreaker is record against each other in which case Williams (2-1) would have the H2H win over Hamilton (2-1) and get the 1 seed. Williams could go into Sunday needing a win to clinch the regular season while simultaneously needing to avoid losing and dropping all the way to the 6 seed. No pressure though. 

[Conts Fan]

Is the worst Hamilton can do the #2 seed?

[nescac1]

Hamilton obviously doesn't have to worry about anything with a win or an Eph loss.  Given that it's beaten Wes and Midd I think worst it can do is two.  I think four way tie would go Williams-Hamilton-Wes-Midd? 

Wesleyan, Hamilton, Tufts, Midd, Williams, Trinity and Colby all still alive for Pool C.  Williams and Midd should be safe.  Hamilton-Colby and Tufts-Trinity both huge for Pool C.  Trinity, Hamilton and Colby are all done with a loss I think, would need Pool A to get in. All four of those teams probably need to get to at least 19 wins to feel good about their chances.  Wesleyan can I think hope to squeeze in with 18 because of a monster SOS. 

Midd losing a game to the Vermont exhibition hurts.  I think Midd probably needs to get to Nescac final to lock up a first round home game in NCAA tourney.

[names jaismith]

Trinity with a pool C bid?  No way.  They have a terrible non league schedule.  They'll need to win the league tournament to get in.

As far as Conn Midd last night, Conn needed great defense to have a fighting chance.  Likely their best defensive effort of the season given the challenge.  Huge props to them but it won't get easier tomorrow vs Williams.  Way harder in fact.  Nonetheless the Camel coaching staff has done a great job to raise the program from an abysmal level to very competitive in a short time.  If they get a good class to go with their experienced guys, watch out.

[PowerForward1992]

What an effort from Conn to hold Sobel to 6-18 from the field. Murray with 17 and 10. That game was a lot of fun to watch, not to mention the biggest poster I've seen this year on Sobel by 23 on Conn. I mean oh my god.

Very interesting for conference tournament implications.

Everyone who's still in has a lot to play for.

[nescac1]

I think Trinity is massive long shot for Pool C.  But hypothetically, if they win their next three to finish 20-8, and get two wins over RRO in Nescac tourney, they'd at least be in the conversation.  But yeah almost impossible for them or Colby to get there.  Tufts, Hamilton and Wesleyan on the other hand are all are in bubble territory right now, so today's games are huge for each of them.  Hamilton and Wesleyan and maybe even Tufts are very likely out of Pool C with a loss today. 

I was looking at Hamilton and without a major addition to the roster, they've gone from
56 ppg in league play last year to 70.  That's remarkable.  The big difference (along with marginal improvement from lots of players) is availability - Singh, Anderson and Morgan combined to miss 18 league games last year!  This year, only one combined missed game from that trio.

[Hamilton4]

D3 Bubble Watch's Tweets

Quote Tweet
Drew Pasteur
@DrewPasteur
·
1h
I will give updates here throughout the day
D3 Bubble Watch
@d3bubble
·
4h
Here is the men's #d3hoops bubble picture going into Saturday:
(* projected auto bid)

Bubble-in
Tufts
Emory
CMU
Guilford
Catholic*

Last four in
CMS*
Wabash
Wooster*
North Park

First four out
Montclair
Elmhurst
NYU
Hamilton

Next four out
Wesleyan
Roanoke
Calvin*
Redlands

[toad22]

I think Trinity is massive long shot for Pool C.  But hypothetically, if they win their next three to finish 20-8, and get two wins over RRO in Nescac tourney, they'd at least be in the conversation.  But yeah almost impossible for them or Colby to get there.  Tufts, Hamilton and Wesleyan on the other hand are all are in bubble territory right now, so today's games are huge for each of them.  Hamilton and Wesleyan and maybe even Tufts are very likely out of Pool C with a loss today. 

I was looking at Hamilton and without a major addition to the roster, they've gone from
56 ppg in league play last year to 70.  That's remarkable.  The big difference (along with marginal improvement from lots of players) is availability - Singh, Anderson and Morgan combined to miss 18 league games last year!  This year, only one combined missed game from that trio.

I wholeheartedly agree with  nescac1 that injury or sickness often plays a pivotal role in the success of a season. The Eph 2010 team was never hurt, played all their starters all 32 games, and want to the NCAA finals. The Eph 2012 team, with a lot of terrific players, was ousted in the quarterfinals of the NESCACs by Middlebury after being ravaged by injury. The teams were not that different. The final records were dramatically different (30-2 vs 17-8). It can never be an excuse because injury is part of the game, but it is often a major factor.