MBB: NESCAC

nescac31hoops · February 12, 2023, 04:41:02 PM

After following the Nescac for quite some time, I finally decided to join the boards... and man oh man, what a great season this has been. I am so excited for the playoffs and what might come out of it. My first round predictions:

Williams 58 Trinity 63
Hamilton 65 Conn 54
Wesleyan 76 Colby 61
Middlebury 57 Tufts 59

Going to be an amazing Saturday of basketball! (p.s. Congrats to Amherst, Bowdoin, and Bates on another competitive season in the Nescac)

nescac1 · February 12, 2023, 04:48:06 PM

I do think anything can happen next Saturday. Especially since it feels like home court advantage has meant VERY little in NESCAC this season (I'd be curious to see the total home-away W-L totals, seems like it has to be pretty close to .500 overall).

Williams was down by two to Trinity with 14 minutes in the game before pulling away late, I think Williams is the better team, especially how it's playing right now, but the overall talent level felt very close, Trinity had some tough players to guard, and Trinity is way better than a typical eight seed in NESCAC. Midd - Tufts obviously looks very even, two great teams heading in opposite directions since Midd handled Tufts with ease matched up in the 4-5 game. Colby seems to be playing much better than it was when it first played Wesleyan, six wins in its last seven games, and three blow-out wins in a row. Hamilton I think is a bad match-up for Conn due to all of its shooters and a week to prep for the zone, but Conn did show it can compete with anyone on Friday vs. Midd.

SpringSt7 · February 12, 2023, 04:49:32 PM

Quote from: Hamilton4 on February 12, 2023, 04:28:24 PM
Every game next weekend looks like a tough one. Who got the easiest draw, I would say Hamilton vs Conn but the way Williams played today I feel bad for Trinity. Styles makes fights though, and Trinity will be playing man to man so it could be an entirely different game than todays.

Trinity has come to Chandler for NESCAC quarterfinal games recently in both 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Trinity had the ball down 2 and Eric Gendron got a good look to force OT as time expired but couldn't get it to go. In 2019, Williams led by 3 with the ball with 1 minute left and ultimately got it done on a Kyle Scadlock offensive rebound to put the game away, but trailed with as little as 4 minutes left and needed a Herculean effort from the Big 4 (74 points combined).

In short, I don't really looking forward to playing Trinity at all. This team is probably better than both of those Trinity teams as well, although they have much worse defense and much better offense. It won't be the rock fight it used to be.

names jaismith · February 12, 2023, 05:23:15 PM

As a follower (but not alum or parent of current or former player) of NESCAC hoops, once again congrats to Williams. There might be four teams at 7-3 but Williams is clearly the best team at the end of the regular season.

On to the playoffs - here are my early predictions

Hamilton 72 Conn 58: Conn will be way better than today but without their point guard they just won't be able to score

Williams 84 Trinity 65 Something is amiss with Trinity's usually strong defense in the last third of the season plus it's at Williams

Wesleyan 80 Colby 64 Colby nowhere near as good on the road as at home. Nicky Johnson runs rampant

Middlebury 67 Tufts 63 Midd has a week to shake off their performance at Conn, and it will show

SpringSt7 · February 12, 2023, 05:24:30 PM

Lost in the shuffle of this weekend, Tufts essentially clinched a Pool C bid with their win over Trinity yesterday. This would be very unlikely but if they beat Middlebury and Williams in their next two games they could sneak into a host spot depending on the rest of the country. Either way, drawing Middlebury in the first round is more or less house money in terms of their resume. There are really no bad losses in the conference tournament unless they play Conn (from a strictly resume perspective)

I'm sure Drew Pasteur will have something to say in the coming days but Wesleyan will have a pretty good chance to make the tournament with two conference tournament wins I would presume. Colby is a better resume win than either Conn or Trin who they could have drawn and then presumably they get one of Williams/Middlebury/Tufts in the semis, all of whom would be a good enough win to boost their resume across the line.

nescac1 · February 12, 2023, 06:15:28 PM

3.5 seems like the over-under for number of Nescac teams in tourney ....

SpringSt7 · February 12, 2023, 07:32:42 PM

https://nescac.com/news/2023/2/12/nescac-news-2023-nescac-mens-basketball-championship-seeds-announced.aspx

A nice writeup on the conference tournament with some interesting nuggets on each team, although some of the spelling errors are unbelievably bad (example: saying Trinity won their only NESCAC title in 2009 while it says a line above that their last NESCAC title was in 2008), seems like the quality of sports information related websites across the conference is way down unfortunately.

My favorite nugget that I did not realize--this is Conn's first NESCAC quarterfinal appearance in 11 years! A win on Saturday would be just their second conference tournament win and first since 2001. Congrats to Coach Sweeney and staff.

ItsATuftSituation · February 12, 2023, 10:41:52 PM

New to the boards and new to NESCAC basketball this year. Though I've seen lots of Division III hoops as an undergrad. Wanted to make sure that Tufts had a voice on this board, as I've seen that the Jumbos aren't as represented as other schools. Looking forward to contributing to the conversation as much as I can.

Should be a good tournament. Looking forward to the next few weeks into March.

nescac1 · February 13, 2023, 07:45:54 AM

Welcome to the boards! We've definitely been starved for a Tufts perspective. Tufts to me is one of the more interesting teams in the league. They've had some very good wins but some poor performances in league play as well. Like Amherst they often play a big rotation, but with obviously much better results; seems like different guys step up on any given night (which is both a good and bad thing). An interesting mix of veterans and promising young players. A frosh class that looks really good, three solid rotation guys led by Gyamesi, who has seemingly emerged out of nowhere to dominate the glass late in the year - I assume after working his way back from injury. He's an old school, skilled banger and already a tough dude physically to deal with at forward. Bernstein and Morakis both seem to have a ton of upside. Champion too among the sophs. There is also the question of whether Thoerner is returning for a fifth year after this one, which would certainly keep Tufts in the mix near year as well. So, lots of intriguing story lines, would love to hear more from a Tufts observer!

nescac1 · February 13, 2023, 09:19:49 AM

A few more thoughts on the Ephs at the end of the regular season:

After a 3.5 game stretch where the Ephs struggled massively offensively, 66 points v. Amherst, 55 v. Midd, 50 v. Tufts, and 31 in the first half v. Bates, Williams has really turned it on in a major way. Something seemed to click down eight in the Bates game, when Williams went on a 20-0 run, and starting from that point they have outscored a quality slate of opponents by a combined 103 points. The Eph offense has looked FAR more fluid, and New Paltz was really the only hiccup - even there a tired-looking Eph squad was still getting plenty of quality looks; just missed quite a few easy ones..

Over the Ephs' five game winning streak, they've shot an absurd 52.5 percent from 3; they have been so hot that they now lead the nation in team three point percentage. Better overall team health has surely played a role. But obviously more than that -- the team has just been moving the ball beautifully, playing relaxed and free without being sloppy, with some crazy assist-TO numbers (24-7 v. Trinity. 18-9 v. Wes, 23-7 v. Conn). While shooting over 50 percent from 3 as a team is obviously not sustainable, so long as the Ephs keep moving the ball the way they have, and playing intense, locked-in team defense, they are going to be a tough team to beat, as they just have so many guys who can get red hot from 3 and if teams start to really overplay the 3 ball, Spivy, Glatzer, Cole, Lee, and Hansen have all proven they can attack off the dribble.

I still want to see how the Ephs look against a really physical, chippy, grind-em-out kind of team, which they have no faced during the recent run of success. Those are the games (Oneonta, Amherst x2, Midd) that have proven to be the biggest challenge, as it can disrupt the Ephs' rhythm, especially when the refs let a lot of contact go.

ItsATuftSituation · February 13, 2023, 09:29:02 AM

Yeah, so I think it's just one of those things with them that they're very balanced across the board. In fact, there are guys that don't play much at all that are very good and will be impact players in the coming years (Wooten in particular). The first-year group of Gyimesi, Bernstein and Morakis are unique in that they all bring such different skill sets. Scott works so hard, is great around the rim, defends well and can switch everything defensively. Bernstein is another guy that at his height and length, he's a beast on both ends but is still getting better. Morakis scores at will, he's a very capable shooter and can get to the tin off the bounce.

That being said, the reason they've been so competitive is the culture that head coach Brandon Linton has continued since his arrival. They preach the details, accountability and competitiveness. They have leaders all over the floor as a result. As someone that watches every game, it's kind of fun not knowing who's going to be the person to step up that night. We've literally seen 8-10 players lead the scoring in a game this year, and guys like Bobby Stewart and Carson Cohen don't get much shine but are very important to the overall pace, culture and style Tufts plays.

Should be an exciting NESCAC Tournament.

Greek Tragedy · February 13, 2023, 09:58:12 AM

If my Lakeland math is correct, home teams were 33-22.

Colby Hoops · February 13, 2023, 10:25:21 AM

Looking forward to Colby-Wesleyan this weekend -- it's a shot at redemption for the Mules as it's really the only game all year where they weren't particularly competitive. Wesleyan and Middlebury are the 2 games that the Mules weren't either leading or tied at some point in the second half (and Midd is not only very good, but a particularly tough matchup for Colby).

Kudos to the Mules for bouncing back from an 0-4 league start and now having a legitimate shot at the NCAA tourney. Wesleyan will be a tough matchup, but Colby has been playing very well of late (excluding a really rough shooting game at Tufts where they missed a ton of shots around the basket).

Really it's Colby's best players playing a bit better. Noah Tyson has started to find his shooting stroke and Will King has been very good, and more aggressive as a scorer in a few games. If you look at the box scores Colby's shooting 42% on threes in their 5 wins and 31% in their 5 league losses -- so in some way it does just come down to making shots (obviously the quality of looks has been different in those games as well, but probably not enough to account for that large of a difference).

Wesleyan played Colby very well the first game, but they have struggled defensively and particularly allowing a high percentage from the 3 point line. I'd expect this game to be much higher scoring. Wesleyan is scary when Ravetz starts making shots, but they've also had some head scratchers including nearly losing to Bates over the weekend and losing to Amherst earlier this year.

Side note -- Amherst is a disaster, they had so many plays against Colby where they would just miscommunicate and throw the ball out of bounds. Some interesting players, but not pretty basketball.

Hamilton4 · February 13, 2023, 10:34:20 AM

My Predictions for this weekend:

Williams 79 - Trinity 70
Hamilton 74 - Conn 58
Wesleyan 72 - Colby 67
Middlebury 72 - Tufts 62

Home teams will hold serve this weekend. The following weekend will be very interesting with a Williams vs Middlebury Semifinal.

nescac1 · February 13, 2023, 10:49:08 AM

Good stuff, TuftSituation. Seems like Linton has that program on the right track, and clearly is able to recruit. That frosh class could end up being really special. I imagine Wooten will get his chance next year with three guys at his position who have been around seemingly forever and who play a ton of minutes graduating.

Greek Tragedy, thanks for doing the math. I'm surprised the home teams did that well in the aggregate this year. Games often were really hard to predict. But maybe I'm also biased from a Williams perspective, as the Ephs seemed to play better in league road games than at home, no idea why. The Ephs' four best performances vs. NESCAC opponents were all on the road (Hamilton, considering they were playing down a few guys, Trinity, Wesleyan, and Conn).