MBB: NESCAC

[nescac31hoops]

That being said, the reason they've been so competitive is the culture that head coach Brandon Linton has continued since his arrival. They preach the details, accountability and competitiveness.

Something that I did notice this weekend was the questionable coaching decisions of Linton, especially against Wesleyan. Tufts was down 1 with less than a minute to go when they called a timeout (with no timeouts remaining) leading to two technical free throws and Wesleyan ball. Definitely an unacceptable mistake this late in the season especially in a huge game with big playoff implications. I am aware that mistakes do happen but a mistake like that is unacceptable for a team that "preach[es] the details"

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ryan, every year one NESCAC team gets the Friday-Sunday shaft.  It rotates every year - not ideal for the team whose turn it is.

I guess my question remains, why?  Is it a travel distance thing?  Why are the Sunday games necessary?

[Colby Hoops]

Ryan, every year one NESCAC team gets the Friday-Sunday shaft.  It rotates every year - not ideal for the team whose turn it is.

I guess my question remains, why?  Is it a travel distance thing?  Why are the Sunday games necessary?

The idea is that there won't be such a significant rest advantage this way. The solo travel team would be playing a back-to-back every weekend against a team that didn't play the night before if they stuck with the Friday/Saturday schedule.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ryan, every year one NESCAC team gets the Friday-Sunday shaft.  It rotates every year - not ideal for the team whose turn it is.

I guess my question remains, why?  Is it a travel distance thing?  Why are the Sunday games necessary?

The idea is that there won't be such a significant rest advantage this way. The solo travel team would be playing a back-to-back every weekend against a team that didn't play the night before if they stuck with the Friday/Saturday schedule.

Gotcha.  I guess that does make sense.

[SpringSt7]

Giving all-league awards one more shot before postseason play and then a final stab at the end. A weird year on the cusp of 1st/2nd team and also at the back end of 2nd team but for the most part, a pretty clear picture of who is in the deserving group.

1st: Sobel (POY), Spivy, Johnson, Thoerner, Karren
2nd: Callahan-Gold, Singh, King, Maccoux, Murray

I don't feel great about Karren on first team but Callahan-Gold didn't play enough games and I don't think the rest of the guys made enough of a statistical case. Karren's conference splits are 12.5/5.5/3.6 on 48/42/100 with 1 block a game, and has a similar "stats dont tell the full story" type of offensive impact as a guy like Nicky Johnson (who I will admit I was unfair towards a few weeks back). I would be shocked if he didn't lead the team in plus minus, they are just so much better when he is on the floor.

Ultimately think the guys that just missed the cut are Rood, Baxter, and then maybe Gabe Ravetz just because 17 points a game on a 7-3 team gets you in the discussion, but it's hard to put them over any of the guys that made the list. Rood maybe if they finished at 8-2 but I don't think he's better than any of the guys on the list, and it's just hard to put a guy from the 11th placed team most circumstances and especially not a year like this.

[Greek Tragedy]

Kudos to the Mules for bouncing back from an 0-4 league start and now having a legitimate shot at the NCAA tourney. Wesleyan will be a tough matchup, but Colby has been playing very well of late (excluding a really rough shooting game at Tufts where they missed a ton of shots around the basket).

Colby hardly has a "legitimate shot" at the NCAA tourney unless you are considering winning 3 road games in a row for the Pool A spot. Drew has them as a 3% longshot to make the NCAAs and I don't imagine winning 2 and losing in the conference tourney final will be enough to get them a Pool C spot.

I'm hoping Wesleyan can sneak in with 2 wins and a final loss. They are in the "fringe" category with the 19th Pool C bid. A lot needs to happen for them to get in.

Middlebury, Williams and Tufts are locks/near locks. Wesleyan is a fringe team and Hamilton and Colby are long shots.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[Colby Hoops]

Kudos to the Mules for bouncing back from an 0-4 league start and now having a legitimate shot at the NCAA tourney. Wesleyan will be a tough matchup, but Colby has been playing very well of late (excluding a really rough shooting game at Tufts where they missed a ton of shots around the basket).

Colby hardly has a "legitimate shot" at the NCAA tourney unless you are considering winning 3 road games in a row for the Pool A spot. Drew has them as a 3% longshot to make the NCAAs and I don't imagine winning 2 and losing in the conference tourney final will be enough to get them a Pool C spot.

I'm hoping Wesleyan can sneak in with 2 wins and a final loss. They are in the "fringe" category with the 19th Pool C bid. A lot needs to happen for them to get in.

Middlebury, Williams and Tufts are locks/near locks. Wesleyan is a fringe team and Hamilton and Colby are long shots.

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

Fair --  I meant more that if they win two and lose in conference championship game they have a shot. That's listed at 36% so maybe outside shot is better than legitimate.I think they have a reasonable path to doing that, as they wouldn't face williams or midd until the title game assuming Hamilton beats Conn. I would project Colby as slight underdogs to Wesleyan on the road and favored over Hamilton on a neutral court.

Edit: that might be wrong about second round matchup, I forgot they reseed.

[names jaismith]

Completely agree Colby a long, long, long shot to be in NCAA tournament.  The only way this can happen is if they put on three red hot shooting performances from deep and win the league tournament.  Colby is certainly a good team.  Just not as good as Midd, Williams and Tufts.  Maybe not Wesleyan either, especially away from home.  Two bids for sure (Willams, Midd).  A third (Tufts) likely but they cannot stumble in the first round of the playoffs.

[nescac1]

I thing SpringSt7's all NESCAC teams look about right, although a lot can obviously change over the league tourney.  I was advocating for Maccoux over Nicky Johnson but Johnson has clearly moved ahead of him.  I'd say that Sobel, Spivy and Johnson are right now locks for the first team.  To me the last two spots are wide open depending on how the conference tournament goes, with Karren, Thoerner, Singh, Murray, and Callahan-Gold all contenders for the last two spots, depending on how they do in the league tourney.  I'd have the rest of those guys on my second team along with Maccoux (unless Wesleyan wins the tourney in which case maybe they get two on the first team) and one more guy, most likely Will King, but Rood could squeeze on with a big league tourney.  Steph Baxter is a tough omission as well but there are only ten spots and he wasn't quite good enough individually to get a spot coming from the 11th place team in NESCAC. 

On another note, here is my list of NESCAC players who could be key players on a good team next year and who have a year of eligibility remaining.  I would imagine that multiple UAA teams would be all over these guys as grad transfers if they aren't returning to their NESCAC squads:

Thoerner, Tufts; Maccoux, Wesleyan; King, Colby; Rood, Hamilton; Baxter, Bates; and Redd, Trinity. 

[SpringSt7]

http://fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

Pasteur has Tufts at 99% and if they lose to Middlebury @ Middlebury there is no shame in that. Tufts is in.

[nescac31hoops]

I am not too familiar with the selection of the All-NESCAC teams. Do the playoffs have an implication on who makes the all-league teams? I can't imagine James McGowan not being at the top of many peoples list if this was a regular season only award. He had an outstanding sophomore year averaging over 18 mpg while being basically the only focus for opposing teams defenses. He has had spectacular games that have flown under the radar. However, his team not making the playoffs may hurt him if the playoffs do count in voting.

[nescac31hoops]

I am not too familiar with the selection of the All-NESCAC teams. Do the playoffs have an implication on who makes the all-league teams? I can't imagine James McGowan not being at the top of many peoples list if this was a regular season only award. He had an outstanding sophomore year averaging over 18 mpg while being basically the only focus for opposing teams defenses. He has had spectacular games that have flown under the radar. However, his team not making the playoffs may hurt him if the playoffs do count in voting.

Points per game (ppg) not mpg.

[nescac1]

I think the playoffs do have an impact on all league awards -- all-league is not announced until after the conference championship.  And it's hard to put McGowan on an all-league team when he missed not only the conference tourney, but also a full 50 percent of league play.  I think you'd have to be just an insanely dominant player in the five games you DID play to warrant all-league consideration in those circumstances.  He has two years left, and hopefully will stay healthy and earn his chance for recognition. 

[Greek Tragedy]

I'm guessing most conferences have a minimum amount of games played to qualify for statistical categories. I wonder if that would be the same for awards and recognitions. My personal opinion is if a guy misses half the conference season, he shouldn't be eligible.

I thought all-league awards are regular season based. Sure, announced after the conference championships, but maybe submitted before the conference tournament starts?

[nescac1]

Wesleyan in a surprise is ranked above Tufts in the first regional ranking.  So Tufts may be more precarious for a Pool C bid than we thought.  Wesleyan I'd say is in with two more wins.  Tufts probably needs to at least beat Midd to feel secure. 

To move ahead of Midd I think Williams needs two wins.  But certainly possible that both host rounds 1-2.