MBB: NESCAC

names jaismith · February 14, 2023, 07:56:00 PM

So. The first regional rankings. How in the world can Trinity be ranked? 1-6 vs ranked teams. 8th in league. A lot of wins (non league) of the cupcake variety. Worcester State is 18-5/1-3. Trinity SOS better, but they didn't win many against good competition. Plus they lost to Conn who was 3-4 vs ranked teams (not making a case for them either, as they lost to Bowdoin and Johnson & Wales).

Bucket · February 14, 2023, 08:36:03 PM

Quote from: names jaismith on February 14, 2023, 07:56:00 PM
So. The first regional rankings. How in the world can Trinity be ranked? 1-6 vs ranked teams. 8th in league. A lot of wins (non league) of the cupcake variety. Worcester State is 18-5/1-3. Trinity SOS better, but they didn't win many against good competition. Plus they lost to Conn who was 3-4 vs ranked teams (not making a case for them either, as they lost to Bowdoin and Johnson & Wales).

You're citing data points that have nothing to do with the rankings:

*8th in the conference. Doesn't matter. Zero factor in regional ranking.
*Lost to Conn. Yeah, so did Middlebury, the 2nd ranked team.

What matters, above all else: WP/SOS/record vs RRO.

That's why Trinity is "ranked." And, honestly, a ranking that low is meaningless.

Greek Tragedy · February 14, 2023, 09:25:42 PM

Quote from: nescac1 on February 14, 2023, 05:16:26 PM
Wesleyan in a surprise is ranked above Tufts in the first regional ranking. So Tufts may be more precarious for a Pool C bid than we thought. Wesleyan I'd say is in with two more wins. Tufts probably needs to at least beat Midd to feel secure.

To move ahead of Midd I think Williams needs two wins. But certainly possible that both host rounds 1-2.

Not much of a surprise. Tufts has a better winning %, but Wesleyan has the better SOS. Probably comes down to H2H with Wesleyan winning by 3. Wesleyan also has that win over Middlebury that Tufts doesn't.

Greek Tragedy · February 14, 2023, 09:30:35 PM

Quote from: Bucket on February 14, 2023, 08:36:03 PM
Quote from: names jaismith on February 14, 2023, 07:56:00 PM
So. The first regional rankings. How in the world can Trinity be ranked? 1-6 vs ranked teams. 8th in league. A lot of wins (non league) of the cupcake variety. Worcester State is 18-5/1-3. Trinity SOS better, but they didn't win many against good competition. Plus they lost to Conn who was 3-4 vs ranked teams (not making a case for them either, as they lost to Bowdoin and Johnson & Wales).

You're citing data points that have nothing to do with the rankings:

*8th in the conference. Doesn't matter. Zero factor in regional ranking.
*Lost to Conn. Yeah, so did Middlebury, the 2nd ranked team.

What matters, above all else: WP/SOS/record vs RRO.

That's why Trinity is "ranked." And, honestly, a ranking that low is meaningless.

Not completely meaningless. Right now, everyone who beat/played Trinity gets credit for vRRO. Everyone except Williams will be rooting for Trinity to win Saturday because that will keep them in the regional rankings for another week...which helps everyone (even Williams).

SpringSt7 · February 14, 2023, 10:23:23 PM

Williams has wins over Colby, Hamilton, Trinity, and Worcester St. A world in which they can beat Trinity and still have Trinity stay regionally ranked would be nice but they have all their bases covered. Whoever appears at the bottom of the list will have lost to Williams

midrangepullup · February 16, 2023, 11:35:05 AM

Quick Stab at predictions this weekend

Williams 81, Trinity 70
I think Williams's size will be pretty tough for Trinity, especially when they don't have the level of shooters that Williams has. No disrespect to Callahan-Gold

Hamilton 62, Conn 58
I honestly think this one could come down to the wire. I have weird faith in that zone even after seeing Williams pick it apart. Their last meeting was closely contested until Singh took over. Hamilton probably has enough to edge them here, especially without their PG but you never know with this league.

Wesleyan 84, Colby 77
I just don't think Colby has what it takes to get stops against Wesleyan. I mean I like both of their offenses but I have a lot more faith in Wes on the other side of the ball.

Midd 68, Tufts 64
I think this could be a close one but I don't think Tufts has an answer for Sobel and Brennan. Kinda tough for Tufts as I think they are NCAA quality but this might screw them out of that. We'll see.

names jaismith · February 16, 2023, 12:29:19 PM

Agree with all these predictions. If Conn's pg was playing it's a toss up, even in Clinton. But he's not, so significant edge to Hamilton. Singh is the key for the Continentals, and he had a big game last time out. Trinity has been weirdly off kilter and is not going to be able to stay with an Ephs team that appears to have hit it's stride. I still think Colby's all-in for offense approach will not serve them well against a Wesleyan team that is fighting to remain in the post season picture. Tufts-Midd the hardest one to predict except who wants to play a top 20 team right after they were upset? Midd will have had the whole week to stew on what happened last Friday in New London and in front of a big crowd at home I expect they will prevail, although it would not surprise me if it was the closest game of the day. Saturday's theme: being at home in the NESCAC means a lot!

Greek Tragedy · February 16, 2023, 01:57:20 PM

Tufts should be in, even if they lose this weekend.

SpringSt7 · February 16, 2023, 05:39:36 PM

Tufts actually seems best equipped to deal with Sobel and Brennan out of anyone. Gettings, Stewart, and the emergence of Gyemesi is a lot of size that moves pretty well to try and keep up with them. Throw in Bernstein at 6'11 who continues to play well and you match up about as good as you can hope.

Bucket · February 16, 2023, 05:40:26 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 16, 2023, 01:57:20 PM
Tufts should be in, even if they lose this weekend.

They're below Wesleyan in the regional rankings, so I don't think that's a given with a loss, at all.

Bucket · February 16, 2023, 05:45:54 PM

Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 16, 2023, 05:39:36 PM
Tufts actually seems best equipped to deal with Sobel and Brennan out of anyone. Gettings, Stewart, and the emergence of Gyemesi is a lot of size that moves pretty well to try and keep up with them. Throw in Bernstein at 6'11 who continues to play well and you match up about as good as you can hope.

Sobel had a pretty big game when they matched up a couple of weeks ago: 19-10, 5 blocks, 3 assists. 1 turnover. 7-13 from the field, 5-7 from the line.

Brennan only took two shots (2-2) and had 5 points, but 10 boards.

Midd outrebounded the Jumbos 38-27.

All said, I expect this game to be highly competitive and could go either way.

lumbercat · February 16, 2023, 06:11:45 PM

Would not be surprised to see Colby win at Wesleyan.

Bucket · February 16, 2023, 06:59:28 PM

Quote from: lumbercat on February 16, 2023, 06:11:45 PM
Would not be surprised to see Colby win at Wesleyan.

Me neither. I'm bullish on Colby. Love what Strahorn is doing with that program.

nescac1 · February 16, 2023, 08:09:42 PM

As predicted by most, Middlebury is #3 and Williams #7 in the overall seedings released today. I think Williams may really be #6 right now given Rowan's loss since these calculations were made. St. Joe's is 2 and no other team from New England or New York is in the top 16. To me, I think that means:

So long as at least one makes it to the NESCAC final, whichever of Williams or Midd go further in the NESCAC tourney is a near-lock for a top seed in a quarter of the bracket. The top seeds are VERY likely to be RMC, St. Joe's, Midd/Williams, and either Swarthmore (if they win out) or the top NJAC team. However, if they need for geographic reasons to get a midwest team as a top seed, the OAC champion or Wheaton (IL) could be the fourth host team for the sectionals.

Midd certainly has a home pod locked up. Williams may as well, but can definitely do so with a win against Trinity. I think Tufts could host a pod if they win the NESCAC title but probably a long shot. I expect there to be three pods hosted by teams from New England, St. Joe's and two from NESCAC (most likely Williams and Midd). Geographically, that makes sense as there are loads of teams from New England, NE PA, NY state, and the NYC area who could travel to those sites by bus.

Tufts and Wesleyan are squarely on the tourney bubble right now. They both are in very good shape with a good NESCAC tourney run (a win over Midd locks down a bid for Tufts, and I think Wes is very likely in with two wins while one might be enough but would need there to be very few bid thieves in other leagues).

nescac1 · February 17, 2023, 07:38:31 AM

One bit of Nescac championship trivia: only Williams has played in all 22 Nescac championships. This year is the first time that Amherst has missed appearing.

I'm not sure when Amherst last had a losing record, but I'm fairly certain that it was before 1994 (for that matter, I have no idea when Williams' last losing season was).

The good news for the Mammoths is that with the top nine scorers returning, and likely better health luck (5 of the top ten scorers missed significant time with injuries) next year almost has to be a much better one.