MBB: NESCAC

[Greek Tragedy]

Tufts should be in, even if they lose this weekend.

They're below Wesleyan in the regional rankings, so I don't think that's a given with a loss, at all.

I think if they both lose, Tufts could jump them because they'll have another vRRO playing Middlebury, while Wesleyan's opponent, Colby, is not. That could override Wesleyan's win over Tufts. If they both lose in the semis, both would get another vRRO, but Tufts' 2 vRROs are more impressive playing Middlebury and (assumed) Williams, while Wesleyan only plays one vRRO in low-level Hamilton. If both make the final, both are in, in my opinion.

[Colby Hoops]

Agree with all these predictions.  If Conn's pg was playing it's a toss up, even in Clinton.  But he's not, so significant edge to Hamilton. Singh is the key for the Continentals, and he had a big game last time out. Trinity has been weirdly off kilter and is not going to be able to stay with an Ephs team that appears to have hit it's stride. I still think Colby's all-in for offense approach will not serve them well against a Wesleyan team that is fighting to remain in the post season picture.  Tufts-Midd the hardest one to predict except who wants to play a top 20 team right after they were upset?  Midd will have had the whole week to stew on what happened last Friday in New London and in front of a big crowd at home I expect they will prevail, although it would not surprise me if it was the closest game of the day.  Saturday's theme:  being at home in the NESCAC means a lot!

I will note that Wesleyan's defense has been worse statistically than Colby's -- both in conference and non-conference play. Not that either have been particularly good.

[nescac1]

Greek Tragedy, I had assumed only WINS vRRO were a relevant criteria.  Are losses vRRO better than other losses, as well? 

Also, I seem to recall something vaguely about wins vRRO being calculated based on the last two weeks' worth of regional ratings (so if someone drops out of the rankings in the last week, that would still count), is that right? 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Greek Tragedy, I had assumed only WINS vRRO were a relevant criteria.  Are losses vRRO better than other losses, as well? 

Also, I seem to recall something vaguely about wins vRRO being calculated based on the last two weeks' worth of regional ratings (so if someone drops out of the rankings in the last week, that would still count), is that right?

Teams in the third ranking (coming on Tuesday) count as RROs regardless of whether they drop out in the final ranking on Selection Sunday or not.  Once that final ranking is done, the committee will rerun the RRO numbers with any teams sneaking in to that final ranking and make any adjustments that might be warranted with the new data, before making Pool C selections.

[booyakasha]

Tufts should be in, even if they lose this weekend.

They're below Wesleyan in the regional rankings, so I don't think that's a given with a loss, at all.

I think if they both lose, Tufts could jump them because they'll have another vRRO playing Middlebury, while Wesleyan's opponent, Colby, is not. That could override Wesleyan's win over Tufts. If they both lose in the semis, both would get another vRRO, but Tufts' 2 vRROs are more impressive playing Middlebury and (assumed) Williams, while Wesleyan only plays one vRRO in low-level Hamilton. If both make the final, both are in, in my opinion.

If they both lose, that means Colby wins and almost certainly becomes ranked next Tuesday, likely to jump Trinity if they lose to Williams. Lots of moving pieces to consider! Exciting times!

[names jaismith]

I don't see Colby beating Wesleyan on the road unless they can make 12-15 3s while shooting around 50%.  And I don't think they can do that while keeping Wesleyan under wraps. 

[SpringSt7]

Worth noting that Wesleyan has the worst 3pt% shooting defense in the league at 36.5% and has surrendered the most threes made of any team in the league as well at 8.25 per game. So, it is the perfect storm.

I have struggled with this Wesleyan team all year. On one hand they have immense offensive talent in their backcourt between Johnson, Ravetz, and Maccoux. Johnson is as good as any in the league (my off hand comment about home and away assist numbers was not intended to dissuade from that) and Ravetz is an all time microwave man at this level, as evidenced by a 20 point half and a 2 point half against Tufts this past weekend, followed by a career high 33 against Bates.

They can shoot it against anyone but after those 3 they really struggle, and neither Johnson nor Ravetz is terribly efficient. It would not surprise me at all if they went 4-22 against Colby and lost by 9, but it wouldn't surprise me if they hung 90 either. They are not your typical Joe Reilly team.

[names jaismith]

Agree about Wesleyan.  I guess they could lose - but they are at home and I just don't trust Colby's defense. Both teams have excellent perimeter players but Wesleyan is better inside.  It would surprise but not shock me if Colby won.  But if they do, it's not going to be 59-58.

[jayhawk]

David Hixon, former Amherst College coach, is one of 12 finalists to be inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame

[Greek Tragedy]

Greek Tragedy, I had assumed only WINS vRRO were a relevant criteria.  Are losses vRRO better than other losses, as well? 

Also, I seem to recall something vaguely about wins vRRO being calculated based on the last two weeks' worth of regional ratings (so if someone drops out of the rankings in the last week, that would still count), is that right?

Technically, it's RESULTS vRRO, so yeah, my belief is that a loss vRRO is better than a loss to anyone. Playing vRRO will show up in the SOS, so the datacast guys have been arguing that you're getting credit twice.

So, 1-0 vRRO may not be as good as 1-2 vRRO. 

[SpringSt7]

Overtime in Middletown---down 4 with 20 seconds left, Colby converts two free throws and then forces a steal and gets the layup with less than 10 seconds to go. The only mistake Nicky Johnson has made all day----he has 29/4/6 and 5 steals, but the 1 turnover he has sends the game to OT.

[stlawus]

I guess neither Hamilton or Conn called at timeout at any point in the game until the final minute and a half.  6 timeouts in the last 90 seconds, if this wasn't a playoff game I would have tuned out long ago.

[SpringSt7]

Wesleyan's bubble presumably bursts in an OT loss to Colby. 71% chance to make the tournament according to Drew Pasteur with a win but just a 26% with a loss. Although the regional rankings have not quite lined up with his projections over the last few weeks, so they will probably be turning into the selection show just in case. But a 16-9 record plus whatever bid thieves there may be, it doesn't seem very likely.

[nescac1]

Nicky Johnson and David Murray both with huge games in losing efforts.  Both are locks for all-Nescac, in Johnson's case, a lock for first team.  Neither got quite enough help today.

Will King although he didn't shoot well was masterful as an orchestrator for Colby down the stretch.  With Noah Tyson finding his shot late in the year, and a ton of veterans who can shoot in the rotation, Colby is a tough out for anyone.  Lots of very physical play going both ways late in the game.  Refs mostly let them play.  Colby will be playing either Williams or Hamilton next.  Another win over a RRO certainly puts them into the Pool C mix (albeit still likely needs the league title). 

If Maccoux doesn't return for a fifth year, Wesleyan loses a hugely impactful senior class - Maccoux, Ravetz, Dezonie plus a couple of deep rotation guys.

[nescac1]

Rough first half for Williams v. Trinity.  In major foul trouble - three for Spivy, two for Karren, two for Cole.  ZERO assists in the half which tells the story for the Ephs -- I don't think I've EVER seen that before.  Williams is not moving the ball well at all and the only scoring is coming off tough moves in the paint.  Credit to Trinity who made major adjustments after the first time these teams met and has been absolutely fantastic in terms of perimeter defense, Williams has had very little room to breathe, that was certainly the best defensive half I've seen vs. the Ephs this year -- after the first few minutes of the game, Wiliams was just not getting any clean looks at the rim which is a huge contrast to how this team has operated over the past five games. 

For Trinity, Callahan-Gold was absolutely ridiculous that half.  Three of his triples were easily NBA range, one of them from around 30 feet I'd say.  The fourth was a ridiculous heavily contested fade-away.  He just looks absolutely en fuego right now.  Ephs HAVE to get some looks from three point range, need especially to get Declan Porter and Spencer Spivy (who needs to be very careful with fouls) involved in the second half offensively.  Feels like Williams is down more than even nine points ... but the rest of the Bantams have struggled to hit shots, or it could have been a lot worse.