MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

NESCAC semifinal appearances since 2017:

Williams: 5
Tufts: 4
Hamilton: 3
Amherst: 3
Trinity: 3
Colby: 2
Wesleyan: 2
Middlebury: 2

No one has won more than 1 NESCAC championship in this time span either.

[names jaismith]

I have to say I was pretty much off on my quarterfinal predictions.  Credit Colby for making me look dumb.  Nicky Johnson did indeed run rampant but Colby was just better when it counted the most.  I should have been higher on Tufts, too, I guess, so my bad there as well.  As far as Williams - - its hard to go from -15 to +15 in 25 minutes.  Williams should do very well in the NCAAs.  Finally, the other game was an epic battle as well.  Conn looked primed for an upset up 7 with four left but Singh, who was held completely under wraps for 36 minutes, hit two contested shots to bring the Continentals back. It was tied with :43 remaining, but Hamilton had just barely enough to win.  Conn really missed their starting pg in this one for sure.  Finally, Conn's David Murray just has to be on one of the all NESCAC teams.  He had a monster game and was unstoppable.

[nescac1]

I have a feeling SpringSt7's all-league picks will end up being prescient:

1st: Sobel (POY), Spivy, Johnson, Thoerner, Karren
2nd: Callahan-Gold, Singh, King, Maccoux, Murray

That first team looks exactly right to me.  Murray has an argument too, I feel like those six have really stood out from the rest.  The coaches will always spring a surprise but I think the second team looks right as well.  I could see an argument for Baxter or Rood, but then who gets squeezed out?   

Even though he dropped off a bit late Sobel is still a lock for POY.  Poulton will I think be ROY even though Vetter has an argument. 

Williams is certainly a favorite vs Colby on Saturday.  But Colby has been very hot: 7-1 in their last 8, the only loss a very respectable road loss to Tufts; five wins by double-digits.  Clearly they've figured some things out.  Lucas Green (8 of his last 9 from 3!) and Noah Tyson have been shooting very well from deep the last four games, so along with Poulton and other role guys who can shoot, that's a lot of perimeter weapons around Will King's facilitating.  On the other hand, the Ephs have been brutally effective guarding the three point line of late (22 percent opposing 3 pt % over last four games) and are now 11th nationally in three point percentage defense (and only .2 behind the fifth place team).  So on that side of the floor, it's strength vs strength.

[names jaismith]

My way too early predictions for the semis and final
Semis
Williams 82  Colby 68  Williams is not just the best all around offensive team, they are the best defensive team as well
Tufts 80  Hamilton 69  Hamilton is game but Tufts is peaking at the right time
Final
Williams 73  Tufts 65 Close for a good while but Williams takes control in the last ten minutes

[Old Guy]

Some thoughts on Midd-Tufts: A very exciting afternoon in Pepin. Midd women came back from a double-digit halftime deficit to beat Hamilton in the first game and then a great men's game with two very good D3 teams. When the men's game started, the stands were perhaps 75% full, big crowd. For the second half, it was SRO and really lively, filled out as the adjacent hockey game ended at about the beginning of the second half and puck partisans joined the hoop throng.

(A quick aside: it's Winter Carnival Weekend at Middlebury and, believe it or not, some of the students at the game had been drinking prior to coming and were taking a keen interest in the play. So Director of Athletics Erin Quinn and Football Coach Bob Ritter ensconced themselves at the edge of that section and student behavior, while raucous, did not exceed acceptable limits, though there was a brief "Bull****" chant when Sobel was called for his 5th. Their word choice was unfortunate but their judgment, as NESCAC1 observed, was on target. Speaking for many fans — grateful for the intervention of Erin and Bob)

Tufts is really good. They're so big! They started two 6'8s (Gettings and Stewart) and brought in 6'11" Bernstein 1st off the bench. Gyimesi who was so good (14 rebounds) is 6'6" as is Thoerner (30 points). Middlebury's terrific rebounding duo, Sobel (6'8") and Brennan (6'6") were overwhelmed as Tufts really crashed the offensive glass. Our guards are 6'2" Bobbett), 6'0" (Osher), 5'9" (Flaks). Tufts rotated through their big guys (Bernstein-22 minutes, Gettings-23, Stewart-16, Gyimesi-33) very effectively. Gyimesi and Bernstein are frosh; Giddings and Stewart are sophs. They decisively beat us on the boards, 45-34 and Middlebury has been a very good rebounding team. Tufts was 22-26 from the line, and a perfect 6-6 in the second OT; Midd was 19-31 and that hurt. If Thoerner gets the premier etoile, Brennan and Sobel split the deuxieme etoile. Great to get Brennan back at his full relentless self.

Tufts was up one at the break (32-31) though Midd was ahead for most of the half. Sobel picked up his second foul early and sat the last 10-12 minutes of the half. The second half was back and forth: the score at half-way mark was 50-50 and Tufts went on a run and maintained a slim lead. With 37 seconds to go, Tufts was up 65-61. Bobbett hit a layup, 65-63, and was fouled, and Sobel was fouled after gathering the rebound. He swished his two foul shots with six seconds to go and Midd held on to send it into 0T. I assume many of you saw the final action as the other tourney games had ended. 

I was there at the game with Old Girl (don't tell her I call her that), Young Girl I with my nine-year old grandson who has begun to take an interest in hoop — the seed has been planted and I think this great game has sunk the hook (to mix metaphors), Young Guy II, the Midd grad and hoop fanatic, and many of my best friends in the world. I would not rather be any place in he world, though I have trouble sitting in my seat, anxious in the extreme, and tend to roam. I was up high on the other side (that way, I don't feel the need to advise the refs) when I said to the guy next to me whom I had never met, "worth the price of admission?" and he said "Hell, yes!"

Proud of this Panther team: they clearly like to play with each other, respect their coach, and play their hearts out. Hope we get another game or two.

[Colby Hoops]

Would seem that a win over Williams gives Colby a good shot at getting in, while Hamilton probably needs to win the tourney to get in: https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1627506348442423296?s=46&t=oj83wDFek9GZUNSNQ--M5w

[nescac1]

There seems to be some dispute among experts on relative standing of Hamilton v Colby.  The committee seems to be valuing wins v. high-ranking teams in regions very heavily.  Hamilton's wins over Midd and WPI will be viewed as very important by the committee.  On the other hand Colby has the H2H win and a win over Williams would be big.  So it's hard to say which hypothetical resume is stronger (of course it would be moot if both win since one would get the Pool A in that scenario).  I predict that if Hamilton beats Tufts, which will also be ranked high in region one this week, they get in regardless of the title game outcome unless there are a huge number of upsets in league tourneys resulting in bid thieves (eg teams like Keene or St Joe's lose).  Very few Pool C candidates would have a trio of wins better than Midd/WPI/Tufts, plus Wesleyan as another very solid win.  But Colby and Hamilton both need wins Saturday to have a realistic shot. 

If Colby and Hamilton both win it's certainly possible that NESCAC gets all five in!   

[Hamilton4]

As long as there aren't too many bid thieves and Hamilton defeats Tufts I think Hamilton is in regardless of Championship results, there's a chance that a few UAA teams drop out of their RR's which could have a trickle down effect on all of the UAA teams RRO count which would help us. So many variables!!

[toad22]

Perhaps my mistake was listening to Hoopsville last night. Dave McHugh had a panel of D3 followers on to break down the latest top 25 poll. The discussion got around to dubious teams in the top 25, I think. A panelist named Mike Raniack (apologies about any terrible spelling), expressed his doubts about Williams going forward because their season seems to have peaked and now they appear to be headed down. "There is something wrong with that team" is the quote I believe. This struck me as odd, because the Ephs have won their last 6 games, including big conference wins against Bates, Trinity, Wesleyan, Conn College, and Trinity again in the conference tournament. All of these wins were by at least 15 points. Then the reason for Williams' imminent demise became clear: two weeks ago today the Ephs played SUNY New Paltz, and nearly lost, 63-57 - at Home! Wow, what a shocker, a heavily favored team, playing after a an exhausting and emotionally draining road trip, took a lightly regarded team for granted and nearly paid the price. That must be the first time in basketball history that has ever happened. Well actually no, it happens all the time, and it would be news if the heavily regarded team had actually lost! Williams did not lose! How can that be the trigger to send them careening downward? Just crazy.

[nescac1]

Like every team, Williams has flaws.  Certain match-ups expose those flaws.  And of course, there are times, as is inevitable, where the Ephs have not brought their A-game.  There is an argument to be made for a downside for Williams, which is a lot easier to make if you focus on their worst performances.

But there are also many things pointing to a real upside. 

1. Williams is VERY good at both shooting and defending the three point shot.  The Ephs are 12th nationally in three point percentage allowed (only .2 out of fifth) and first nationally in three point percentage.  When you are good at defending AND connecting on the most efficient shot in hoops, you are going to have a pretty good chance against anyone.  The Ephs are also second nationally in fewest fouls per game, so they aren't giving up many free points.  It's incredibly hard to do both - to guard the three point line so tightly while rarely fouling - but the Ephs have so much length and intelligence on the perimeter of the defense that they can contest shots (indeed, blocking a good number of jump shots) while rarely fouling, even without being an especially quick team overall. 

2. While Williams does not have a signature win, and that is fair critique, the Ephs have beaten a lot of good-to-very-good teams - Trinity x2, Hamilton, Colby, Wesleyan x2, RPI, St. Lawrence, Oneonta, and Worcester State.  These teams are all regionally-ranked teams or right on the cusp of being regionally ranked, and most of them can at least hang with anyone on any given day. 

3. The Ephs have not lost with Brandon Roughley in the lineup.  Now I realize he isn't a top player statistically, but he was a projected starter heading into the season, and he is an important player and gives the Ephs someone who can come in off the bench and punish teams in the low post, which has proven to be a huge factor in both recent Trinity wins.  Time will tell if adding a skilled 6'8 guy will help with what has been the Ephs' biggest weakness this year, going up against big, physical front-courts who offensive rebound like crazy, but it certainly can't hurt.  If the Ephs play Tufts or Midd again, it will  surely be a challenge to rebound with those teams, in particular.  But there aren't all that many teams with deep rotations of physical big guys like that, and Williams at least has experience playing two of the top five teams, nationally, in rebounding margin (Midd and Oneonta).   

4. I don't see how you can kill Williams for the New Paltz game while ignoring that they came out five days later and absolutely decimated a decent Conn College team on the road (a team which had just beaten Middlebury by double-digits). 

5. The Ephs' top player, Nate Karren, got off to a slow start to the season, but he's been an absolute two-way menace over the past ten games ... 15.7-6-3.6 plus 1.5 bpg on 56/51/95 shooting, including two treys per game.  If anything, the stats understate his impact as an orchestrator of the offense and huge three point threat who draws an opposing center out of the lane while also protecting the rim on defense, and who can also exploit single-coverage in the low post.  Basically, exactly what you want from your center in modern hoops.   

Ultimately, I think both the the efficiency rankings and the D3 hoops rankings have Williams pegged about right -- somewhere around 10th nationally.  And I do think there is still unrealized upside potential for this team given how much better it has been playing in February vs. how it was playing in January, which was, admittedly, concerning. 

[deiscanton]

I'll give you the spelling of his last name.  The panelist is Coach Mike Rejniak, current head coach of the We Are D3 TBT team that competes every summer (in most years) in The Basketball Tournament.  Coach Rejniak used to work at rival school Amherst as a former assistant for former head coach Dave Hixon.   He also was the former head coach at SUNY New Paltz in the SUNYAC.  Rejniak is one of the 25 current men's basketball voters in the D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll, and he does publish his ballot every week once the poll comes out.

Perhaps my mistake was listening to Hoopsville last night. Dave McHugh had a panel of D3 followers on to break down the latest top 25 poll. The discussion got around to dubious teams in the top 25, I think. A panelist named Mike Raniack (apologies about any terrible spelling), expressed his doubts about Williams going forward because their season seems to have peaked and now they appear to be headed down. "There is something wrong with that team" is the quote I believe. This struck me as odd, because the Ephs have won their last 6 games, including big conference wins against Bates, Trinity, Wesleyan, Conn College, and Trinity again in the conference tournament. All of these wins were by at least 15 points. Then the reason for Williams' imminent demise became clear: two weeks ago today the Ephs played SUNY New Paltz, and nearly lost, 63-57 - at Home! Wow, what a shocker, a heavily favored team, playing after a an exhausting and emotionally draining road trip, took a lightly regarded team for granted and nearly paid the price. That must be the first time in basketball history that has ever happened. Well actually no, it happens all the time, and it would be news if the heavily regarded team had actually lost! Williams did not lose! How can that be the trigger to send them careening downward? Just crazy.

[Hamilton4]

Drew Pastner has Wesleyan in and Hamilton out. Whereas Bob Quillman has Hamilton in and Wesleyan out. I was hoping that CMU dropped out of the RR which would've lowered Emory and Rochesters vRRO but somehow CMU made the cut this week in the RR.

[SpringSt7]

Pasteur has the number of NESCAC bids set at 3.9. It seems like Wesleyan has a better chance of getting in than previously thought, but between them and the opportunities for Hamilton/Colby to play their way in, 4 is more likely than not at this point. Wesleyan's resume seems like it could get them in, but they will be hoping for as few bid thieves as possible. A Hamilton win over Tufts and an SOS bump from playing @ Williams could vault them in over Wesleyan. Colby would need a lot to go their way however.

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1628433331737198593?s=20

[Colby Hoops]

Pasteur has the number of NESCAC bids set at 3.9. It seems like Wesleyan has a better chance of getting in than previously thought, but between them and the opportunities for Hamilton/Colby to play their way in, 4 is more likely than not at this point. Wesleyan's resume seems like it could get them in, but they will be hoping for as few bid thieves as possible. A Hamilton win over Tufts and an SOS bump from playing @ Williams could vault them in over Wesleyan. Colby would need a lot to go their way however.

https://twitter.com/d3bubble/status/1628433331737198593?s=20

Agreed. Seems that the recent regional rankings have valued SOS a bit more and WP% a bit less than Pasteur and some of the other prognosticators anticipated. This hurts Colby's case obviously to the point where a win at Williams likely doesn't get it done.

Every team has this to some degree, but Colby's SOS is primarily being driven down by Thomas and Castelton who are a combined 6-44 on the season. Can't really fault scheduling those as Thomas is the crosstown team in Waterville and Noah Tyson's mother is the AD at Castleton -- so that was scheduled as bit of a homecoming for Noah. Bates and Bowdoin being down also hurts Colby as those non-conference matchups typically can provide more of an SOS boost.

Still, going forward seems like scheduling as difficult as possible of a non-conference is the best way to go.

[nescac31hoops]

Based on rankings, I believe that the locks for Pool C bids are Williams, Middlebury, and Tufts. That fourth spot is going to come down to Hamilton, Wes, and Colby. This weekends games has huge implications on the three teams.

I am predicting Williams and Tufts to both win on Saturday, which would put Wesleyan ahead of both Hamilton and Colby in terms of Pool C bids. I really like the idea of Wesleyan getting in as they have had the hardest SOS out of all three teams. The Cards have played 5-6 games against teams ranked in the top 10 and have an 11 game win streak to show for. I think they are battle tested and have a good chance to make a long tournament run should they get in.