MBB: NESCAC

[Greek Tragedy]

Based on rankings, I believe that the locks for Pool C bids are Williams, Middlebury, and Tufts. That fourth spot is going to come down to Hamilton, Wes, and Colby. This weekends games has huge implications on the three teams.

I am predicting Williams and Tufts to both win on Saturday, which would put Wesleyan ahead of both Hamilton and Colby in terms of Pool C bids. I really like the idea of Wesleyan getting in as they have had the hardest SOS out of all three teams. The Cards have played 5-6 games against teams ranked in the top 10 and have an 11 game win streak to show for. I think they are battle tested and have a good chance to make a long tournament run should they get in.

Hamilton is above Wesleyan right now, will get another rRRO with the semi-final with Tufts and also has the H2H with Wesleyan. No way Wesleyan gets in before Hamilton, even if Hamilton loses Saturday. Having an 11-game win streak doesn't matter, nor does playing 5-6 games against teams ranked in the top 10 (d3hoops poll?).

[SpringSt7]

I'm not sure if this is the top 10 but Williams x2, Middlebury, Rowan, and Swarthmore is 5 games against teams that were all in the top 10 of the seeding reveal last week.

[Conts Fan]

I'm not sure if this is the top 10 but Williams x2, Middlebury, Rowan, and Swarthmore is 5 games against teams that were all in the top 10 of the seeding reveal last week.

And don't know if means anything for NCAAs, but they were 1-4 with a -71 scoring differential in those games.

[Bucket]

The board is starting to get a bit salty. It must be playoff time!

(I love it, fwiw.)

[SpringSt7]

A couple thoughts on the 4 teams playing this weekend and then the additional 2 teams waiting (or hoping) to hear their names called on Selection Sunday:

Hamilton: A tale of three seasons for the Conts. Got off to a rocky start in the nonconference that was a much tougher slate than we probably gave them credit for. 4 of their 5 noncon losses (Trinity TX, La Roche, Utica, and Ithaca) are currently a combined 78-17. If not for the loss to 11-14 Salisbury they would probably be on the right side of the bubble right now. Raced off to a hot conference start behind arguably the most balanced scoring in the league, 4 guys averaging 11.5 or more points a game and their leading scorer Eric Anderson coming off the bench. Have struggled as of late however, trailed to Bowdoin at half, lost by 17 to Colby with the #1 seed on the line and left it late down 7 with 4 minutes left before sinking Conn last weekend. Have 3 guys who are capable of going off for 25 on any given night but as a team shoot just 31% from 3. Tufts will be a tough matchup with their group of bigs but Patrick Mogan (11-4-5) is coming off arguably his best game of the year offensively and their guards rebound really well too.

Tufts: Flew under the radar all year until they pasted Williams and are now comfortably safe for a Pool C bid. Quietly have 3 guys that have played in a NESCAC championship game and 2 NCAA tournament wins. Dylan Thoerner is the best big game player in the league---going back to the 2020 NESCAC championship he has scored 13, 12, and 17 points off the bench as a freshman, 21 points in last year's NESCAC QF, and 30 against Midd last weekend for his postseason career against 5 NCAA tournament teams. Carson Cohen had one of his best games of the year last week and the bigs are getting better by the day. If Aronson shoots well they are as good as any in the country.

Williams: Playing their best basketball of the year, as mentioned frequently over the last few weeks. Still undefeated with Brandon Roughley in uniform and they needed all 10 of his points last week to come back against Trinity. Still have a bad habit of getting a little streaky at times but with Roughley back, the emergence of FY Alex Lee, and Nate Karren in a sustained stretch of great play, their floor is a lot higher. Have held opponents to less than 70 in all but 3 games this year. When they win the rebounding and turnover battles, they win, when they lose them, they don't. Seemed to have some homecourt jitters last week against Trinity in the first half that are hopefully out of their system now as Colby and their firepower will not be as easy to come back from 15 down. Need Prowitt-Smith and Spivy to stay out of foul trouble as they matchup a lot better with King and Poulton than their alternatives.

Colby: Winners of 4 in a row and playing with the least to lose this weekend. Probably stole one against Wesleyan last week but they won't care and they shouldn't. Will feel confident they can beat Williams as they led in Chandler late in the second half in January and that was without Lucas Green, who just had 22 on 8-10 shooting last week. Will King didn't shoot it great last week but is averaging 15 and 8.3 assists per game over his last 3 and is playing with a lot of confidence, they gave him the keys to the offense in overtime against Wesleyan and he certainly delivered. Noah Tyson has never had a great great night against Williams but Max Poulton had 27 the last time they played and that could free him up. The X factor for me is Jack Lawson, he gives them another dynamic when he scores the ball and they will need minutes from him to contain Karren and stay within striking distance. Haven't lost to a non tournament team since January 6th but will have to beat two to continue their season.

Middlebury: A play away from entering the NCAA tournament having lost 4 in a row but they have limped to the finish before with a QF loss and come out two weeks later playing well. They should still host first weekend which will give them a great opportunity to enter the Sweet 16 with a load of confidence. Two weeks to get fully rested will be huge for Sobel who has understandably cooled off after having to shoulder a massive burden for the last 4 months. They will go into every game feeling like they have the best player and they have every reason to feel that way. Sam Stevens has struggled all year but one game at a time I don't think anyone would be surprised if he went for 20. They have a top 10 defense in the country according to Matt Snyder and are 4th in the country in rebounding margin. Seems like a great recipe for a single elimination tournament.

Wesleyan: Will be doing a whole lot of scoreboard watching this weekend but are currently on the right side of the bubble. Williams beating Tufts and as few bid thieves as possible will boost their resume and keep them there. Nicky Johnson is playing as good as any guard in the country and Gabe Ravetz is averaging 23 a game in his last 5. After scoring 14+ in 12 straight games Preston Maccoux went cold with 8 and 2 in his last two games, they really need him back to his best to win any more games. Are looking at a tough draw either way if they make the tournament so they might as well go out swinging. Like Midd, could benefit from the extra week off as they are really playing a 6+ man rotation and will probably need their stars in the 38-40 minute range.

[nescac1]

Great stuff SpringSt.  Plus one!

[Greek Tragedy]

If it gets to Williams v Tufts, I don't think it matters who wins. Both are already in. The question is who does Wesleyan cheer for in the semifinal: Hamilton or Tufts? Tufts is already supposedly in, so do you cheer for Tufts, hoping they knock Hamilton behind Wesleyan in the regional rankings or do you cheer for Hamilton to get the Pool A or at the least, improving their resume if they drop the Final...getting selected sooner?

It's strange that Drew has Wesleyan having a better chance of getting in even though Hamilton is ahead of them in the regional rankings this week.

If Wesleyan gets in, I think that means the NESCAC gets 5 schools in.

[SpringSt7]

My logic re: Williams beating Tufts was that Wesleyan has two losses to Williams so resume wise it is better for them if those are even better losses. It is a minute point but that was the thought process

[nescac1]

It really is weird to figure out.  Considering so much emphasis seems to be placed on wins v. regionally ranked teams as well as the relative place of those teams in the rankings, here is how I see it.

Middlebury - lost to Hamilton, beat Colby, Tufts (once) and Williams.  If Colby beats Williams and then Tufts, I think that is the best possibly outcome for Midd.  It ensures that Williams stays behind Midd in the regional rankings.  I think Tufts also stays behind Midd in that scenario.  Midd is then flat guaranteed a home pod and probably a second seed in one quarter of the bracket. They probably get a home pod no matter what -- wins over Williams, Tufts, Keene and Nichols are just very valuable by the committee's metric. 

With a win, Hamilton I think should be in (and CLEARY ahead of Wes) as they would then have wins over Midd, Tufts, WPI, and Wesleyan; those are all high value wins, especially the first three.  However, I think Wes does move ahead of Hamilton right on the edge of the bubble if Hamilton loses.  Wes has a monster SOS.  It has wins over Midd and Tufts, and the Tufts win may become elevated if Tufts makes the NESCAC final (and CERTAINLY if Tufts wins the NESCAC tourney).  It's also possible that Wes squeezes out another regionally ranked win if Colby loses to Williams and Worcester State wins out -- Worcester may end up being ranked in that scenario.  Remember, the win over Colby would still count even if Colby gets squeezed out this week. 

Really, this year, it's all about getting into the tourney.  I think everyone agrees that the tourney is fairly wide open after the top two maybe 3-4 teams at most, with some paths to the final four being more random than others, almost surely.  I think any of the NESCAC teams who make the tourney could upset a higher-seeded team on any given day.  Or could themselves fall victim to an upset.  You just want to get your ticket so you have a chance to see what can happen. 

[SpringSt7]

Ephs do phenomenal job with Colby's shooters, holding them to just 4-12 from 3. Trail by just 21.

[middhoops]

Strange half in Williamstown.  Colby (over) plays tight man to man against a bigger Eph squad and takes the ball to the paint repeatedly en route of a kinda huge halftime lead.
No doubt Williams makes a comeback in the 2nd half, but 21 points against a veteran, and patient, Colby is maybe too much to ask.

[jumpshot]

Total collapse by Ephs in first half giving up layups, turnovers, missing shots ....someone will have to explain to me why Williams is so erratic for long stretches, particularly at the start of games. Something is missing ... what is it?

[SpringSt7]

The impressive thing about Colby's defensive gameplan is that they are only overplaying the passing lines when Williams is driving, not when they are getting into their offense. Normally, the Ephs would slice and dice an over aggressive man defense with back cuts but Colby is only getting in passing lines when they put the ball on the deck, and Williams has not adjusted yet.

[Colby Hoops]

That was a dominant first half, best defensive half of the season. Ephs will come out swinging in the second half I'm sure, but that wasn't just some hot shooting like Trinity last week -- that was just superior basketball.

Not over, but Ephs will have to play perfect now.

[nescac1]

Seems like the Ephs don't have one of their trademark second-half comebacks in them tonight, even if playing much better in the second half than the first.  Colby does seem to be weathering the storm and the gap was just so massive.  The Ephs were making a bit of a run but just couldn't get the 3's to drop at the right time, while Will King's jump shots have been absolutely heart-breakers from a Williams perspective.  He doesn't always hit from outside, but when he is on, he is just such a puzzle to guard and he has really controlled the entire game for Colby with both his shooting and passing. 

Credit to the Mules for a great game plan and execution on both ends in this one.  They've been back-dooring Williams to death all game and the Ephs have never adjusted, just way too many layups for the Colby frontcourt players.  A very veteran team and played with a ton of poise on both ends tonight. 

For Williams, they just have to find a way not to panic and get out of their offensive sets when they face adversity at home.  Yeah, King hit some tough unexpected 3's in the first, and the shots were not dropping for Williams, but the Ephs got totally out of their game (much like they did vs. Midd in the first half, Tufts in the second half, and Trinity in the first half, all at home) and by the time they looked up they were down 20.  The Ephs were also just SO sloppy with the ball all game, tons of awful turnovers, very uncharacteristic from how they have played in recent weeks.  Just can't survive those against a good team.

The Ephs do not seem to have this problem on the road, where weirdly they have been playing much better.  But at home, they just play SO tight.  I'd still rather they get a home pod in the tourney, but if they have to start out on the road, maybe it's almost a blessing in disguise.