MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

Because it's almost that time - guesses on conference finish with some comments mixed in:

1. Williams - Return a lot, experienced, talented
2. Trinity - Vetter, BCG, finally have some experience in key spots
3. Middlebury - I'll buy low on Stevens and they get Williams, Trinity, Wesleyan, Amherst, Hamilton, and Conn at Home
4. Wesleyan - Nicky Johnson is the best player in the league
5. Conn College - Think the zone will still give people problems and they return a lot
6. Amherst - Like their pieces but have to see it first
7. Tufts - More returning than people realize but looks like a year of growing pains
8. Hamilton - Good group but 6 away games against the 6 best teams in the league
9. Bowdoin - Will finish higher if McGowan scores 37 a night
10. Colby - Cupboard is bare all of a sudden
11. Bates - Cupboard is still bare

[ThumannsOwn]

Just because we could use some hoops talk - the Amherst strength of schedule (or lack thereof) was a total moot point in the Hixon era given their consistent postseason success. They loaded up on creampuffs but they won the NESCAC every other year, won multiple national championships, and competed deep into March just about every year. He could do whatever he wanted and clearly whatever he was doing worked.

Sears does not get that benefit of the doubt, it should be a new conversation with him. To me, getting some confidence built up with a young and unproven group seems like a good strategy. The cynic in me says it's a coach under pressure trying to inflate his W-L.

I've got to defend my man Coach Hixon here, Spring. Hix put together competitive schedules for Amherst. I think there were a few years there where we may have led the league in wins versus ranked opponents in Region (back when that was a thing). We had rivalries against Brandeis, Rhode Island, Eastern Conn, Babson, Springfield who were usually good teams. Now, did Coach Hixon sprinkle in some "creampuffs" in the schedule? Absolutely he did. Particularly early in the season to make up for the NESCAC's truncated preseason schedule. I think this was very smart strategy by a very smart man. There's no need to play only a murderer's row. But make no mistake, those legendary Amherst teams were all battle tested come NCAA tourney time — both from NESCAC teams and beyond.

And, while we are on the subject, let's not make it out like Williams historically plays a murderer's row either. For instance, take that vaunted, one-loss (to Amherst!) national championship team. Someone can correct me but I believe Amherst was the only ranked team you guys played (whether in conference or not) prior to the NCAA tournament.

Speaking of Coach Sears, NYU must be really happy right about now that he wasn't considered in the final candidate pool in the spring of 2022 before ultimately choosing Dave Klatsky. Bob Quillman (@IWUhoopscom) has NYU is his way too early D3 Preseason Top 10 - https://x.com/IWUhoopscom/status/1713731235434864890?s=20.

[nescac1]

SpringSt7's NESCAC picks strike me as reasonable, though you could put 2-8 in pretty much any order.  I'm slightly higher on Amherst and Conn then he is, just because both bring back basically everything while Midd, Wesleyan, Hamilton and Tufts have such massive losses to graduation (and even Trinity which I'm also high on loses two of its top four scorers), but nothing would really surprise me this year.  Other than Williams missing the NESCAC tournament, or Bates making it . 

On another note, here is a shot at ranking the non-NESCAC competition in New England this year (regions 1 and 2).  Looks very top-heavy but not especially deep:

1. Keene State - bring nearly everyone back from last year's juggernaut.  Jeff Hunter is the best player in New England and certainly one of the best five in the country.  Octavio Britto is not far behind.  Transfers Aronson and Dupree should make a bigger impact after acclimating as transfers.  Legit top five team nationally - but Hunter must stay healthy.

2. Nichols - lose three of their top six guys from a shallow team, but Rucker is another year removed from his knee injury and should be lightning on the court.  Added likely the best recruiting class nationally, a bunch of highly-ranked first years plus two legit D1 transfers (guys who actually played in rotations).  May take time to gel like last year so best to get them early, but top ten national level talent for sure. 

3. Western New England - here's where it starts to get tougher to rank, as I don't see any top 25 national teams after the top two.  They bring everyone back from a 21-win team and mid-season transfer Michaels should contribute more this year.  Jake Harrison is an all-American.  Could be even more loaded next year depending on whether a few top players take a fifth year. 

4. WPI - Lowther is a big loss but everyone else is back and John Adams should bounce back from a sophomore year that wasn't quite up to expectations.  Assuming a bit year from him to slot them in here.  They always find a way to 20 wins, no matter what.

5. Brandeis - will only be projected 5th or 6th in a loaded UAA, but lots of talent, let by all-American Toby Harris and rising star Ethan Edwards. Veteran returning starters Zuron, Adusei and Power are solid role players.  Transfer Gilbert Otoo from Trinity could add some needed scoring punch on the wing as could sophomore Jake Bender, who played limited minutes as a FY but looked like a potentially major recruit. 

6. Babson - may move them over WPI depending on who else they added in off-season, but at the very least, a healthy Nate Amado and Steph Baxter is an elite 1-2 punch on the perimeter, and they have a lot of big bodies up front who should collectively give them a bit more inside than last year.  They were hurt last year by injuries. 

7. Worcester State - only lose one notable player from the team that dominated MASCAC.  Rubenskas and Nkrumah are one of the top frontcourt duos in the region and their backcourt is very experienced. 

8. Clark - After the top six, it's more of a crapshoot.  Taylor and Saintilus should lead a high-octane offense and McArdle is a solid anchor inside.  Depth was an issue last year but if Clark can improve the bench production with some fresh blood they will be a tough out. 

9. Southern Maine - A dark horse pick, but they finished tied for second in LEC and I believe have everyone back from a team that rocketed from 4 conference wins to 10. 

10. Albertus Magnus - Dawkins is a big loss for their offense but everyone else is back and they will have plenty of size, depth and athleticism.  GNAC feels wide open this year. 

The wild-card: St. Joseph's - no team nationally loses more to graduation, their top seven scorers (I believe, only one even has eligibility) are gone.  But want to see who they bring in as transfers.  Box, Altenor, Feldrappe and Ely are a very talented rising sophomore class, but they have to go from the bottom of the rotation to go-to guys in one year.  If they bring in a few veteran transfers to help out that group, should crack the top 10 on this list, somewhere.  But likely a year away from being interesting. 

Other teams to watch: Emmanuel - top three guys are back from a team that went 13-4 in the GNAC; Husson, returns most of its roster; Eastern Conn (usually brings in some transfer talent as well, so TBD); MIT (yes, they hit rock bottom last year, but with Emerson and Wheaton killed by graduation they should make a move in NEWMAC ... they had four guys who basically never left the court last year, two frosh and two sophs, and had to rely heavily on walk-on type players, and this year they should actually have something resembling a normal basketball rotation.  Certainly will be the most improved team in the region). 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You forgot Brandeis.  They should be pretty good.

[nescac1]

Ahh yes Brandeis because of the UAA affiliation I totally wasn't thinking of them, good catch.  I'll edit accordingly and add them in, definitely in the top half of this list. 

[BaboNation]

They don't need me to defend their schedule, but the '03 Williams team beat D1 Holy Cross on the road (I was at the game).  That team was legit.

[nescac1]

Thanks for that reminder, BaboNation - but a slight correction, that was the 2004 team, the defending national champion who ended up making it back to the title game, that beat Holy Cross. 

[jumbomumbo]

Because it's almost that time - with some comments mixed in:

1. Williams - Return a lot, experienced, talented
2. Trinity - Vetter, BCG, finally have some experience in key spots
3. Middlebury - I'll buy low on Stevens and they get Williams, Trinity, Wesleyan, Amherst, Hamilton, and Conn at Home
4. Wesleyan - Nicky Johnson is the best player in the league
5. Conn College - Think the zone will still give people problems and they return a lot
6. Amherst - Like their pieces but have to see it first
7. Tufts - More returning than people realize but looks like a year of growing pains
8. Hamilton - Good group but 6 away games against the 6 best teams in the league
9. Bowdoin - Will finish higher if McGowan scores 37 a night
10. Colby - Cupboard is bare all of a sudden
11. Bates - Cupboard is still bare

Half-decade long lurker here who had to fire up an account after this post, because I know if anyone knows better it has to be SpringSt7... Think the NESCAC will be tight this year 1-8, however Tufts at 7 is quite silly considering they have beaten the Ephs (soft) by a combined 36 in last 2 matchups. Bernstein and Gyimesi are animals, very hard for any team to stop, suspected first teamers right there by the time they're upperclassmen (if not this year). Other key returners such as Champion and McLaren should keep things steady for the Jumbos, and Dieterle (proven killer - dropped 33 in one of his first college games ever) will surely step into a bigger role. Morakis a very talented young guard brings even more physicality to this squad, and the program culture seems headed in a great direction under the new coach...

For what it is worth, Hamilton is too low here, and Amherst (also soft) is too high.
-Jumbomumbo

[SpringSt7]

Welcome to the board! We have been needing some Tufts insights too so I hope you stick around. I like every guy you named - a healthy Dieterle would change their trajectory - I just think the other teams have a little bit more. Also, Thoerner and Rogers aren't walking through that door so it's hard to put a lot of stock into past performances. Tufts will really really good the next two years but unless one of the sophomores takes a serious leap or McLaren or Gettings turns into a different guy I don't know that they have the horses at the top of their rotation to finish too too high.

Also for all just if I wasn't clear this was a guess at conference finish and not necessarily a power rankings, which I will edit into the previous post. I think I've made this known but I put a lot of stock into the home/away splits which I think you have to do when you play everybody once. For example I don't know if I think Middlebury is the third best team in the league but they have 6 home games and only 4 away games and their 6 home games are against arguably 5 of the best 6 teams in the league, and 3 of their 4 road games are against Bates, Bowdoin, and Colby. If that was reversed they would plummet.

[middhoops]

Yes, a Tufts poster! 
Welcome to the board. 

[nescac1]

Likewise glad to have a Tufts poster! 

First, while I agree that for whatever reason Williams has been awful against Tufts the last two years (well actually the reason for the bomb two years ago was obvious, most of the team was suffering from or had just recovered from COVID and had barely played in weeks), the entire season does not consist of games versus Tufts.  Despite just a ridiculous spate of first illness and then injuries over those seasons, the Ephs still managed to be the last NESCAC team standing both years (or tied for last team standing), getting to the Sweet 16 and round of 32, respectively.  Indeed, since 2017, despite Tufts having no shortage of talent during that time span, Williams has 10 NCAA and 9 NESCAC tourney wins, to Tufts' 5 and 7, respectively, so hard to say that Williams is "soft" just by virtue of one bad-luck and one truly-awful regular season loss to Tufts.

I think Tufts' pre-season ranking is roughly fair.  As I've written here before I'm very high on Gyimesi, Bernstein and Morakis as the centerpiece of a great team but those three guys are only sophomores so still have a ways to go to get to where they are going to end up.  Tufts could be pretty scary in a year.  But this year, Tufts is going to have a VERY green backcourt as they lose over half of their-point makes (from a team that didn't shoot the 3 ball all that well to begin with) and over half their assists with their top three ball-handlers all graduating.  Nearly all their offense went through Aronson, Henry, Cohen and Thoerner last year so all those tough big guys will not be getting the ball in quite as advantageous a position and look for teams to pack the paint until Tufts proves they have anyone who can shoot it reliably.  I always loved Henry and thought he was overlooked as a guy who could ignite a team with quick, scrappy play on both ends.  And Thoerner was far and away the best shooter / scorer on that team.

Dieterle who can certainly shoot it looks most likely to be the guy who can keep defenses honest, but he hasn't even been a consistent rotation player in his first two years and last year shot only 30 percent from 3 so the coach will have to show he trusts him in the outside triggerman role.  But with not one rotation player returning who made EITHER a high volume or high efficiency of 3's, Tufts has to prove it from outside.  And there seem to be a lot of reluctant outside shooters who will be getting a lot of minutes on that squad.  Bernstein though is gonna be a handful in the paint if he can avoid foul trouble. 

As for Hamilton, I love Morgan and Singh as a duo and they seem to have some good frosh wings coming in, but it's unclear who the third scorer will be as well as who will do any of the dirty work inside.  They lose a lot of really underrated, hard-nosed veterans from last year's team, guys who had been doing it for 3-4 years, so really anything from 4th to 8th would nor surprise me for them.   

I also don't view Amherst as soft.  I think their struggles last year were largely the result of a wildly inconsistent and discombobulated rotation where no roles were ever clear, and also just of being a very young, underclassmen-dominated team so guys were way up and way way down.  This year I expect the rotation will tighten up a bit and obviously they are worlds more experienced.  But one thing I did not see from them as was "soft."  They have a lot of big, strong, tough, physical dudes on that team.  I am higher on Amherst than SpringSt7, actually, the talent is there to be a top-three team in NESCAC if they figure out who the go-to guys are going to be. 

[nescac1]

A few days ago I said in evaluating the regional competition, "the wild-card: St. Joseph's - no team nationally loses more to graduation, their top seven scorers (I believe, only one even has eligibility) are gone.  But want to see who they bring in as transfers.  Box, Altenor, Feldrappe and Ely are a very talented rising sophomore class, but they have to go from the bottom of the rotation to go-to guys in one year.  If they bring in a few veteran transfers to help out that group, should crack the top 10 on this list, somewhere.  But likely a year away from being interesting."

Well, I was off on how much St. Joe's brings back, they have a good number of 5th and even 6th year guys who I did not realize were eligible / will be returning.  They still lose five very good players (five of their top seven, in fact), but in addition to Box, Altenor, Feldrappe, and Ely, they also return Tyree Mitchell (who went down with injury last year), Jalen Samuels, and Chaylyn Martin.  They also add as a transfer Kevin Cummings, who was a two-year starter and double-digit scorer for Colby-Sawyer.  That should be a very good top 8 and makes St. Joe's the clear favorite in GNAC.  Plus they bring in eight FYs incluing a 6'10 center, so surely some of those guys will be in the mix.  Of those, Ben Carroll seems like the most likely contributor, while listed as a FY he was originally a D2 recruit and a top 100 player in New England in H.S. 

I think I'd now slot them in at 4th among NESCAC's out-of-conference regional competition.  And they certainly play a ton of NESCAC teams - Midd, Colby, Trinity and Tufts, as part of a fairly brutal out of conference schedule (also featuring Nichols, Babson, Yeshiva, Bethany Lutheran, and Wooster)

[nescac1]

Bates does not list Jahmir Primer on the 23-24 roster:

https://gobatesbobcats.com/sports/mbball/roster

That means the leading returning scorer - from a team that went 1-9 in conference play - averaged 7 ppg.  Ouch.  Barring a truly spectacular first year class, it's likely to be a very long season for Bates fans.  And looking at the schedule they will be an underdog in nearly every game during the first semester -- a very tough early non-league slate that includes high-quality teams like Clark, Southern Maine, Kean, Babson, Husson, Emory, and Brandeis, plus the CBB games ...

The trajectory for Bates has not been pretty -- from 4-6, to 2-8, to 1-9 in league play.  Bates seem well-positioned heading into 2020-21 with a rising soph class of Baxter, Iwowo and Sarr but it all sort of fell apart.   COVID hit, Iwowo suffered serious injuries and never was able to play a full season, Sarr ended up quitting hoops, and finally this off-season Baxter transferred to Babson for his last year of eligiblity.  And Bates hasn't brought in much top-line talent since that class -- Primer, a true walk-on, was the best player in the succeeding classes.  After Bowdoin and Conn righted the ship in recent years, by a pretty fair margin, the Bobcats look to be the worst-positioned NESCAC program right now. 

[ItsATuftSituation]

Because it's almost that time - guesses on conference finish with some comments mixed in:

1. Williams - Return a lot, experienced, talented
2. Trinity - Vetter, BCG, finally have some experience in key spots
3. Middlebury - I'll buy low on Stevens and they get Williams, Trinity, Wesleyan, Amherst, Hamilton, and Conn at Home
4. Wesleyan - Nicky Johnson is the best player in the league
5. Conn College - Think the zone will still give people problems and they return a lot
6. Amherst - Like their pieces but have to see it first
7. Tufts - More returning than people realize but looks like a year of growing pains
8. Hamilton - Good group but 6 away games against the 6 best teams in the league
9. Bowdoin - Will finish higher if McGowan scores 37 a night
10. Colby - Cupboard is bare all of a sudden
11. Bates - Cupboard is still bare

I think the prevailing opinion is that Williams is the team to beat in the conference, and that the rest of the conference will be chasing them.

In terms of Tufts, I think they play a very different game this year as they've been pretty guard oriented with Thoerner and Aronson. With the depth up front this year, I think actually it will help open opportunities for Champion, Morakis, Dieterle and others since most will be keying on the bigs. Not sure about the newcomers, but Reilly was recruited by Williams according to his bio page. Excited to get things going soon.

[nescac1]

Speaking of Tufts, interesting that star QB Berlutti is playing hoops this year.  He's certainly a heck of an athlete.  Though I doubt the football coaches are psyched!