MBB: NESCAC

[toad22]

Glad to see the board back up! A few things have happened since December!

[nescac1]

So, it's been an eventful semester for Williams indeed!  Kudos to Coach App (who has, somehow, never been NESCAC COTY) for keeping the team together through just a crazy stretch of injury and illness adversity.  The Ephs lost three important players (Glatzer, their starting PG and top perimeter defender, and Porter and McGraw, the two top three point threats) for the season; Nate Karren, their best player, was a shadow of himself the first half of the season while wearing a boot on all non game-days; and loads of other key guys have missed time and/or been limited with injuries.  I think Williams has missed a total of something like 84 games and counting in total in terms of injured players, nearly all of those games missed from potential rotation guys. 

So, how has this team, which looked lost at sea after a pair of desultory West Coast losses over the December break, managed to go 9-1 in league play, 20-5 overall, and surely locked down at least a Pool C berth?  It's been a combination of (1) clutch play in tight games, (2) everyone understanding their roles and (3) incredibly consistent team defense.  Most of all the defense: I wouldn't say Williams has eye-popping individual defensive talent.  Spivy, last year's best defender, graduated.  Glatzer would have been the top lock-down guy but is out.  Hudson Hansen is really the only rotation player who has elite size/athleticism combo, and he is a reserve who missed the half the season with injury and only got back to 100 percent maybe 2/3 of the way through the season.  But 1-10, no one is a defensive liability, the team is always prepared, and Williams contests jumpers (especially three point shots) so well with good length everywhere that nothing ever seems to come easy.  More thoughts on individual players in later catch-up posts, but while there are a few individual stand-outs, it truly is an elite TEAM defense.

The second key is that Williams has been crazily good (and also a bit lucky, but this team is certainly owed some good fortune!) in late game situations.  Williams is 7-0 in games that have gone down to the last possession (or went to OT), which is an incredible stat. Several other wins went down to the last few plays -- Tufts is really the only game they MAYBE could have pulled out among their losses.  There have been some insane finishes - none more so, of course, than the crazy comeback against Trinity capped off by Nate Karren's insanely clutch game winning three.  That was the most fun regular season game in Chandler since at LEAST the Ryan Kilcullen game, and I'd say since well before then.  Trinity is (obviously) a tough, tough team to beat this year and Williams needed everything to go right in the last 60 seconds to make that happen. 

The third key is that while this team is, after the injuries it suffered, no longer loaded with offensive talent 1-10, every guy in the rotation makes the most of his minutes and understands his role.  Dan Lee exemplifies that more than anyone.  He started the season as a deep bench guy, never having played much in his first three years. Even with a few guys out, he didn't start the season in the rotation.  But as injuries continued to mount, he was called upon as a back-up point guard, and he's made key plays in the limited chances he gets which have been the difference between winning and losing a few of those close games.  Whether it's a heady defensive play, great energy on both ends, bringing the ball up capably against pressure, or hitting a critical three point shot, he always seems to make a positive difference, and while he's not alone among the role guys who have really stepped up into bigger-than-anticipates roles this season, the importance of his contributions have been the most surprising. 

[JEFFFAN]

Damn it is good to be back!!  And of course the first post is from the always incredibly insightful NESCAC1!!!

[nescac1]

Thanks JEFFFAN, appreciate!  Should be an epic rubber match in Williamstown this weekend. 

Part two of the catch-up, more general NESCAC thoughts.  Heading into the league semis, some thoughts on the potential league awards:

POTY: David Murray (an easy choice for now, although Nate Karren could make a case with a huge final weekend -- his league stats have been crazy - 14-6-4, 1.5 bpg, 1 spg, on 53/56/86 splits, he's leading Williams in almost every statistical category in league play and if anything the numbers understate his importance). Murray though has consistently been the best player in the league, elite on both ends.  I wonder if he will try to use his last year of eligibility elsewhere next season. 

First team all-league:

David Murray
Nate Karren
Hank Morgan
Henry Vetter
Shane Regan

Second team all-league:

Ben Callahan-Gold (could squeeze onto first with a big weekend)
Nicky Johnson
Scott Gyimesi
Noah Osher
Max Poulton

All-defense: Murray, Will Scherer, Jarrel Okorougo, Josh Bernstein, Jackson Cormier

ROTY: Jon Medley
All-rookie: Medly, Marc Garraud, Marc Begin, Jared Berry, Dylan Watson and Marcos Montiel (tie for the last spot)

COTY: Ogrodnik and App are both very highly deserving.  But even if Williams goes down in the semis, it has to be App, for all the reasons I've stated in my previous post.  He's been masterful juggling lineups through adversity, and it's also just crazy that he's never won it. 

Overall, a pretty weak rookie class this year in NESCAC, after a VERY strong group last season.  I thought Medley was easily the best first year, as Tufts' best perimeter defender and an emerging offensive player.  He closes games for the Jumbos which is impressive on a team that is a lock for the NCAAs.  I value that more than Begin scoring more on crazily high volume for an atrocious Bates teams.  Garraud doesn't have enough counting stats but he's looked very good on both ends (especially defense) since moving into Amherst's starting PG role.  Jared Berry on Trinity has also been impressive but doesn't play enough minutes.  Still, he could be a star in future years. Watson and Montiel will be rock solid starters, at a minimum, for the next three years. 

Speaking of NCAAs, Trinity is a lock and probably a lock to host, although if they lose to Tufts they will have to sweat it out a little bit. Tufts and Williams are both locks for Pool C and either could at least make an argument to host a pod with two more wins, but everything would have to break right and it's probably a bit of a long shot for either.  Conn, sadly, looks very unlikely to squeeze in but there is some slight chance they will if there are virtually no upsets in league tourneys.  Amherst needs to win the Pool A to make it.

[SpringSt7]

I know we were away for a while but Trinity has a new coach - his name is Jamie Cosgrove

[nescac1]

Argggh you got me there . 

[names jaismith]

Conn had their chances to not be currently hanging on the tiniest edge of the post season cliff.  They are no doubt regretting mightily the OT loss to Magnus in which they led for the vast majority of regulation only to see a sure win slip away. Now they see themselves behind in the regional rankings to a team they should have beaten.

Credit Amherst for bringing their A+ game last Saturday, at least in the first half.  Conn missed numerous transition chances and Amherst used its rim protection to allow the Mammoths' perimeter defenders to smother the Conn perimeter players.  Amherst came down to earth a bit in the second half and Conn cut a sizable deficit to 2 with plenty of time left but couldn't get it done.  The better team, on that day at least, won.

Let's not forget how far Conn has come from four years ago when they were absolutely awful. The players and coaches who engineered this massive turn around are to be credited. Losing stings, though, and losing when you're a good team, having missed a big opportunity, stings all the more.

Trinity, Tufts, and Williams are clearly deserving of an NCAA bid irregardless of what happens this weekend.

[D3BBALL]

Thanks JEFFFAN, appreciate!  Should be an epic rubber match in Williamstown this weekend. 

Part two of the catch-up, more general NESCAC thoughts.  Heading into the league semis, some thoughts on the potential league awards:

POTY: David Murray (an easy choice for now, although Nate Karren could make a case with a huge final weekend -- his league stats have been crazy - 14-6-4, 1.5 bpg, 1 spg, on 53/56/86 splits, he's leading Williams in almost every statistical category in league play and if anything the numbers understate his importance). Murray though has consistently been the best player in the league, elite on both ends.  I wonder if he will try to use his last year of eligibility elsewhere next season. 

First team all-league:

David Murray
Nate Karren
Hank Morgan
Henry Vetter
Shane Regan

Second team all-league:

Ben Callahan-Gold (could squeeze onto first with a big weekend)
Nicky Johnson
Scott Gyimesi
Noah Osher
Max Poulton

All-defense: Murray, Will Scherer, Jarrel Okorougo, Josh Bernstein, Jackson Cormier

ROTY: Jon Medley
All-rookie: Medly, Marc Garraud, Marc Begin, Jared Berry, Dylan Watson and Marcos Montiel (tie for the last spot)

COTY: Ogrodnik and App are both very highly deserving.  But even if Williams goes down in the semis, it has to be App, for all the reasons I've stated in my previous post.  He's been masterful juggling lineups through adversity, and it's also just crazy that he's never won it. 

Overall, a pretty weak rookie class this year in NESCAC, after a VERY strong group last season.  I thought Medley was easily the best first year, as Tufts' best perimeter defender and an emerging offensive player.  He closes games for the Jumbos which is impressive on a team that is a lock for the NCAAs.  I value that more than Begin scoring more on crazily high volume for an atrocious Bates teams.  Garraud doesn't have enough counting stats but he's looked very good on both ends (especially defense) since moving into Amherst's starting PG role.  Jared Berry on Trinity has also been impressive but doesn't play enough minutes.  Still, he could be a star in future years. Watson and Montiel will be rock solid starters, at a minimum, for the next three years. 

Speaking of NCAAs, Trinity is a lock and probably a lock to host, although if they lose to Tufts they will have to sweat it out a little bit. Tufts and Williams are both locks for Pool C and either could at least make an argument to host a pod with two more wins, but everything would have to break right and it's probably a bit of a long shot for either.  Conn, sadly, looks very unlikely to squeeze in but there is some slight chance they will if there are virtually no upsets in league tourneys.  Amherst needs to win the Pool A to make it.

New Poster here, agree with a lot you wrote. I would add Dana Smith of Trinity to the 1st or at least the second team and he should be defensive player of the year. He has shut down the best player on each NESCAC team (no matter the position PG, SG, Wing, forward or center) that Trinity has faced in conference play, while leading his team in FG percentage, 3 point percentage, rebounding, and 2nd in assists again while guarding the other teams best player. Dana is the MVP on that team.

[nescac1]

D3bball, I certainly haven't seen nearly as much of Trinity as you.  I was very impressed by both Dana Smith and Okorougo's wing defense and I defer to Trinity fans as to who is the top defender on the team.  Dorion also very tough on D as are some of the second unit guards.  Part of a strong tradition of elite Trinity defenders over the past decade (Kyle Padmore, Shai Ajayi, Ed Ogundeko) under Coach COSGROVE.   

[ItsATuftSituation]

Glad to be back...it's been a tough year without the board.

Since I'm a Tufts guy, despite seeing the entire conference play in person at least once this season, I have been so impressed with the play of Jon Medley. I think the thing that's unique to the top leagues at this level (UAA, NESCAC, WIAC, etc.) is that it's so physical that playing as a first-year is very difficult. There are VERY good basketball players that don't get a ton of minutes because they're in the process of changing their bodies to be able to compete at this level. In reference to Medley, he's been able from day one to defend physically against older players. He's an on-ball terror, and his offensive game is slowly rounding into form as he gains confidence.

In reference to the rest of the league, I was impressed with most aspects of Trinity's game. They play hard, they share the ball well, and they don't seem unflapped in pressure situations for the most part. I guess that goes without saying for the No. 4 team in the nation. Williams is another very well coached team, saw them in person twice, App does a great job and that's another team that shares the ball offensively.

I have to say though, the one thing I enjoy seeing is that a LARGE portion of the conference have played against each other in prep basketball. AAU, ISL, etc., but there's is a great mutual respect for each other that I love watching. The teams battle hard in game, but prior/postgame the players are cordial, respectful and glad to be able to compete against each other. Excited for this weekend, should be in attendance at ol' Chandler both day.

Roll 'Bos!

[nescac1]

Should be a really fun weekend of games in Chandler, at least if you like defense.  Currently in national rankings, in terms of points allowed per game, Trinity is 4, Williams is 11, Tufts is 23, and Amherst is 32, nationally. Field goal percentage defense, Trinity is 3, Tufts 13, Amherst 14, Williams 18.  Williams is first nationally in three point percentage defense, and Trinity 18.  Amherst is tenth nationally in blocks per game.  Massey has Trinity 7, Williams 8, Tufts 21, and Amherst 22 in defensive efficiency.  So in sum, by any metric, four of the best defensive teams in the nation will be going head-to-head.     

None of these teams are elite offensively.  Trinity is the best in ppg at 106th nationally and in offensive efficiency at 94th per Massey, but they have poured it on vs. some really bad teams and their offense has been a bit up and down in NESCAC play (they did however put up 82 against Tufts).  Outside shooting can be an issue for each of these teams -- Trinity is the best at a mediocre 35 percent, and Amherst, Tufts and Williams have each massively struggled to convert from deep all season long, although Williams has shown signs of life from behind the arc in league play.  If one of the four unexpectedly gets hot from deep over a two-game stretch that may be enough to pull out a league title, as I expect these are going to be hard-fought grind-em-out type affairs, as all of the prior contests (other than Trinity-Tufts) this season have been among this bunch. Especially as they've all seen each other before, and four defensive-minded coaches have a week to prepare to take away each other's primary action on offense. 

[nescac1]

Random NESCAC tidbits:

1. Burke Chebuhar has been playing very well for Lehigh - he matriculated at Bowdoin and the sat out the COVID year, so he never saw the court.  Bowdoin certainly could have used him this year ... Bowdoin had a three-year stretch where it lost a slew of recruits / FY players for various reasons, which has been reflected in very thin senior classes for three years running.  https://thebrownandwhite.com/2024/02/10/the-origin-story-of-lehighs-newest-breakout-star/

2. Chebuhar is part of an increasingly long list of NESCAC transfers to find success elsewhere (usually as grad transfers), especially during the COVID era.  Alex Sobel has been a very good D1 starting center this year for Sacred Heart, averaging 11-8-2 plus 3 bpg and 1 spg on 56 percent shooting.  And Dylan Thoerner has been a solid rotation contributor for Cal Irvine, playing 10 mpg and scoring 4 ppg as a three point shooting specialist.  Tufts, with him, would be flat scary this year.  Middlebury has especially been killed by the lost COVID year, losing a season of play each from Sobel, Jack Farrell, Max Bosco, Griff Kornaker, and Tommy Eastman. 

3. The two big names to watch this off-season are David Murray, who has another year of eligibility and might attract some D1 interest, or if not would certainly be a hot commodity at every D3 school, and Ben Callahan-Gold, who also has a year of eligibility.  If he returns to Trinity (which unlike Conn has grad programs), they should start the season as no worse than a top ten team nationally and as the clear NESCAC favorite.  He also, however, may attract some higher-level interest.

4. Not a ton of recruiting news during the D3boards hiatus, but one interesting name committed to Amherst is 7'1 Max Klitschko, son of prominent boxer and politician Vitali, who would sure be interesting to see roaming the sidelines of NESCAC arenas.  I can't imagine any D3 team has ever sported anything like the size Amherst will have at the 4/5 next year -- 6'10 Scherer and 7'1 Randle backed by 6'10 Tam, 6'8 Vance and 7'1 Klitschko.  And the returning vets have shown plenty of skill to go along with that size.     

[JEFFFAN]

Sort of feel that Amherst has a whopping coming its way this weekend after a season that met my expectations.  Mediocre team from the get-go.   They play hard and the defense has been very good - as NESCAC1 pointed out, along with the rest of the NESCAC - but offense is spotty at best.   The win against CC was a nice win as CC was seeded higher and thus had the home court advantage.   I still don't believe that the current coach understands that the NESCAC is driven by guards - especially guards who can hit threes - and not by decent but not great big men.

[SpringSt7]

Williams does not have an offense that is capable of delivering a whopping it seems and especially not against a team that will have the size and length advantage at most positions like Amherst does. The Little 3 game caught Williams at the worst time health wise but the gap between the two right now is not all that far. Given that the crowd should be as good as it can be on Saturday and that Williams is rolling and battle tested, I expect that they will pull out a close one (these games are almost always close anyways), but not a blowout.

[D3BBALL]

I can see any of the 4 teams winning this weekend. They all can be beat.

Will be interesting to see how many teams get a bid other than the championship winner.

The league does not seem as highly rated in the past. Part of this may be due to out of conference schedules.
Tufts has played the best out of conference schedule, a tough one and did very well, their issue was just start of the conference play, but then did well until their game against Trinity.
The rest of the league either didn't play a tough schedule, Trinity's was very weak and has cost them in poll rankings, and they rest just did not do well enough against tough opponents. Williams has had major injury issues all year, would have been interesting to see how they did in out of conference having a a healthy team.

Would not surprise at all if only 2 teams made it this year, especially if other conferences has upsets.