MBB: NESCAC

[nescac1]

Rough loss for Williams and impressive performance by the Wesleyan defense.

For Williams, the defense was generally good, and Williams did an especially good job on Shane Regan with Dinkins and Cooley locking him down.  For Wesleyan, a lot of their supporting guys seems much improved especially as shooters, with Cormier (huge night), Pohlman, Regan, hitting shots from deep that last year's scouting report would have said are the shots you want them to take (although today they were a BIT too open). The addition of Oscar Edelman to the frontcourt also helps with their spacing as has an absolutely gorgeous touch from 3. 

Wesleyan though won this game with its defense.  Josh Cameron was an absolute demon guarding guys out there and got 11 big boards in only 19 minutes off the bench. With Cameron, Little and Cormier guarding the wings ferociously and Nicky Johnson at the point of attack, nothing is going to come easy against these guys.  In the first half especially, Wesleyan had an intensity that Williams didn't quite match.  The Ephs played with far more energy in the second but it was too little too late.  Williams right now seems like it's firmly in the second tier along with Middlebury and Hamilton, although I think there is some upside as frosh continue to grow and possibly some spacing help joins the rotation. 

No one had a good day for Williams offensively. The Ephs had some nice moves to the rim but without much of a threat from three Wesleyan was able to collapse in the lane every time and make nothing easy.  The Ephs didn't help their cause by missing probably 5-6 layups and were way off on most of their 3's, although Lee did have two that went in and out. With Aidan Yates struggling to find the range in recent games and McGraw and Porter still out, the Ephs simply don't have the spacing to make a team like Wesleyan pay, and some games are going to be (as expected) a struggle offensively for the Ephs.  The defense will always be there, but 45 points is just not going to cut it.

As for Wesleyan, I think clearly they are right there with Trinity and Tufts as the teams to beat in NESCAC (certainly the best team Williams has played this year, including Keene). This looks like the Sam Peek-led Wesleyan teams in terms of overall quality, their athleticism and length are a tough combo to deal with. 

[Bucket]

Monster 20-14-6 showing for Scott Gyemesi today in a 77-57 win against Rochester for Tufts. NESCAC just 1-4 against UAA competition this weekend although they were underdogs in probably all 4 of those. Disappointing showing for Middlebury against an admittedly very good Emory team, but one that would have been a really nice win for a team that will most liking be around the Pool C bubble come March.

Really? That's your takeaway from that game? Emory is one of the best, if not the best team in the country. A Middlebury team, picked by some, ahem, to finish 10th in the conference, battled all game, down two starters. Closed a 20-point deficit to eight in the second half. Saw another career game (3 in 3 games) from sophomore Kuba Cwalina (29 points). Not a disappointing showing in the least, as far as I'm concerned.

Now only scoring 45 and losing by double digits at home to an unranked Wesleyan team...that might be more cause for the disappointing label. 

[toad22]

There was no joy in Billtown last night. Wesleyan came to town and sliced and diced Williams pretty badly. There isn't much good to say about the play of the Ephs.  To the credit of the Cardinals, they came in and played with a focused intensity we rarely see in Chandler. Our guys just didn't match that intensity, and thus could never play the game we wanted to play. This is at least partially due to the fact that Wesleyan has a team with several senior leaders who have been the leaders for several years now. Nicky Johnson, in particular, exemplifies this leadership. He has always been a fine player, now his leadership skills seem just as good. I do think that Wes will run into some trouble in the league this year because their offense is just ok. They managed to score 57 points against a Williams defense that was not at its best. Against a high octane offense, that might not be good enough.

I still like this Williams team, and think they can be really good later in the year. We just need to get from here to there without having many nights like last night. Leadership from the upperclassmen is essential, and growth from our very talented first years needs to continue. I am hopeful.

[toad22]

I forgot to mention that sometimes the basketball gods look kindly on you and ameliorate your suffering. After the debacle at Chandler last night, I came home and watched Duncan Robinson have a terrific game for the Heat. He went 5-8 from 3, 19 points, as well as some very nice assists, and even a couple of rebounds. He had been in a mini-slump (5-25) from 3, so all of Duncan's Williamstown fans were at least happy for him.

[jumbomumbo]

Bates 72 Rochester 62. Is this the year of the Maine teams?! Tufts vs 7-1 Brandeis on deck

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts 87-72 over Brandeis. Was a 25-point lead and growing before we called the dogs off around 9 min mark. Morakis 24 points 3 assists in 22 mins. Reilly 22 points in 25 mins. Medley 10 and 6, Scotty 6-7-5. Tufts offense had Brandeis on their heels, and proved against Keene, Rochester, and Brandeis that they can beat teams in transition, which may be their edge over NESCAC foes this year. One thing we haven't seen from other strong past Jumbos teams is just really laying it on good teams. Last year - some big wins, but small margins. Of course we always beat Williams by 20 though 

.Favorite plays from tonight were a team defensive effort peeling to new defenders after an initial Judge advantage, which resulted in Reily showing off his ball stopping capabilities. Other favorite clip was Kennelly snatch back between the back 3 when his defender went under him. The bench will certainly step up and grow into bigger roles in future years. And Tufts freshman class is currently burried beneath some good talent but may end up being the NESCAC's most talented group when said and done. Linton is a great recruiter within his system. Key question will be if the team can extend a strong start into NESCAC results. Everyone on this site understands - it is tough to win league games. This team doesn't have last years 10-0 start, but very well could have a stronger regular season if they can close out NESCAC play 7-3 or better. A win against Trinity over that span and I will be calling for the top spot in D3 rankings.                    Other notable scores:
Carnegie Mellon 80-75 over Midd
Emory 69-59 over Bowdoin. Not a bad showing!
Bates over Rochester.
Lot of top 25 teams dropped games this week, suspect Midd off the rankings, Wes in (9-0, can we get some Cardinals perspectives on the boards?) Tufts/Trin moving up.

[ItsATuftSituation]

Watched the game against Rochester yesterday, but didn't get a chance today against Brandeis. First thoughts, Rochester is not very good. No offense to them, maybe they have some injuries, but boy they're in some serious, serious trouble this year in the UAA. They don't shoot it well, they're kind of soft and with all of that height, they get muscled around. Good to see Tufts pretty much dictate that entire game Saturday. Sunday looks like it was similar, but that the Jumbos just shot the ball very well. Morakis had another 24 points on an efficient shooting night, and Dylan Reilly made five threes Sunday too. Jon Medley does a little bit of everything, I just love his game so much. If this Jumbo team makes consistent shots from the perimeter and can get steady point guard play, they're going to be a very tough out. Good to see Bates get a win today too in the UAA Challenge.

[SpringSt7]

Disappointing loss for Middlebury yesterday. Not the end of the world losing to Emory (apparently you are not allowed to be disappointed if you lose to a good team) but wonder if the Carnegie Mellon game is the one that they'll want back come March. Keene St. last good opportunity for an OOC regionally ranked win and that's not for a while.

It's still early but it looks like a 2 maybe 3 bid NESCAC to me this year. Tufts and Trinity (still in that order for me) are not quite locks but are really close just because they have avoided nearly all landmines for bad losses and don't have many more opportunities coming up. Wesleyan at 9-0 is a very good team and looked like one on Saturday night but I don't know how well the Williams win is going to age and they could really benefit from beating Trinity or Tufts and probably need both Amherst games at some point. This is a lot of conjecture though.

Williams has two losses to two good teams but they just don't look like a tournament team to me, especially offensively. They have two good players but neither is transcendent and the pieces do not fit around them very well. They are getting some help back soon in the form of Declan Porter and Ben McGraw, while Evan Glatzer is hopefully nearing full healthy and growing back into himself, but I am weary of expecting anything from anyone who has missed almost a year or more. Porter has really missed 2 years at this point and while I really like him, he was an 11 ppg guy the last time we saw him, not necessarily a trajectory changer.

Middlebury is another team with a shot but they play @ Trinity, @ Wesleyan, @ Keene St., @ Williams, @ Amherst, and @ Hamilton. Seems like a big ask to navigate through those at anything better than 2-4.

The league is clearly better and deeper this year due in large part to the improvement of all 3 CBBs and just the fact that no one is really overly underperforming in the non conference. So there won't be a whole lot of bad conference losses that would tank anyone's Pool C chances.

[SpringSt7]

Also not intended to be a comprehensive list but focused on the teams closer to the top. Amherst and Hamilton and maybe Colby still have Pool C shots as well

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I think a 6-loss NESCAC team should have a pretty good shot of getting in, so there's a lot of opportunity out there if they perform well in conference.  Colby really could've used that win over Denison, though.

With NPI not taking into account conference record, anybody who comes into NESCAC play with 2 or fewer losses should still be in the running.

[nescac1]

I'm a little higher on Wesleyan than Toad or SpringSt7.  Their offense wasn't great against Williams but the Ephs certainly know how to play them on defense and match up well and not many teams have guys who can guard both Regan and Johnson as well as Williams does, and they can certainly play better than that.  Overall, I thought they were a lot tougher (especially defensively where they were worlds tougher) than Keene State which is a game Williams easily could have won.  The Ephs were never really in the Wesleyan game and while Williams certainly did not play its "A" game, a lot of that was because of how disruptive and aggressive Wesleyan was defensively, they kind of reminded me of Trinity from last year in how they brought waves of unafraid, long, athletic guys who didn't let you breathe.  And they are simply a very veteran team at this point. 

In the end, while a ton can change in league play, I think NESCAC will probably end up as a four-bid and maybe even a five-bid league with Tufts, Trinity, Wesleyan and the best of the rest.  Assuming Trinity beats St. Joe's tonight, I think if region 1 was ranked right now, it would go something like:

1. Wesleyan, 2. Tufts, 3. Trinity, 4. Middlebury, 5. Williams, 6. Hamilton, 7. Amherst or thereabouts.  1-3 ordering could switch around and 4-7 are fairly interchangeable as well.  So there is going to be a TON of opportunities for NESCAC teams to pick up a slew of regionally ranked wins against one another this year.  NESCAC teams will also have strong SOS's because the league has (despite some hiccups this weekend) performed well in out-of-conference play to date, and of the 50ish remaining non-league games, NESCAC teams are probably favored in about 45 of them.

SOMEONE from new england has to get Pool C's and region two's top teams have already picked up a lot of losses - WPI and Keene only one each, but Babson, Clark, Brandeis all have at least three losses each already, no one in the CCC looks like a Pool C contender this year, nor does anyone in the Little East other than Keene State.  If Keene State wins the Little East and NEWMAC ends up a one-bid (or at most, two-bid) league most likely, that means that from regions one and two virtually every if not every Pool C bid will have to be a NESCAC squad.  In that scenario, I think that five NESCAC teams in is more likely than three. 

More generally, this kind of feels like a year where there aren't going to be a lot of teams with gaudy records and a lot of the top teams are going to be handing each other losses.  In next week's top 25 (really through the top 40), there will be only 10 undefeated teams I would expect.  Three are from the UAA and those teams are gonna beat each other up as always come league play (although this is actually a year where the UAA may end up fewer bids than usual but three very high seeds, as it does seem like Emory, Wash U. and NYU are wayyyyy ahead of the rest of the league; CMU has a good record but lot of close wins against a meh schedule so I don't see them hanging with those three, Rochester and Case look bad; and Brandeis and Chicago seem solid but not in competition with the big three). 

Two of the undefeateds are from NESCAC and I do expect Trinity and Wesleyan (along with Tufts) to pick up some losses in league play.  Stevens Point will certainly pick up losses in league play as well.  ODAC seems far more balanced than usual and I doubt more than one team survives that league with fewer than four total losses as a lot of the pre-season favorites have already picked up multiple losses.  OAC is kind of a mess already with John Carroll's Chicone out for the year.  CCIW has only one team with one loss or fewer.  The Centennial isn't a league anymore where one or two teams are going to dominate, again, a lot of balance at the top.  MIAA had a very rough time of it in out of conference play relative to last year. 

The broader point being, all these Pool C's have to come from somewhere and once you get past the top three in UAA, and the top group in NESCAC and WIAC, the teams likely to be in contention largely already have losses in most cases multiple losses - there is going to be a LOT of opportunities for teams with good schedules in the 17-19 win range.   

[d3hoopstories]

Quick point of clarification...there is no such thing as a regionally-ranked win anymore. The regions do not matter at all with the introduction of the NPI.

As of now, wins over nine NESCAC teams would warrant a "quality win bonus" as their NPIs are above 53.

More here: https://d3datacast.com/npi/

This morning's projection has five NESCAC teams making the tournament.

[nescac1]

Thanks, d3hoopsstories, I had no idea the entire system had changed! 

[d3hoopstories]

And in case you are wondering, there will be no "human element" at the end of the season to decide at-large bids. The rankings determine who gets in. Of course, the inputs into the system were decided on by humans. They looked back at the last three years in order to build what should be a much better process for determining Pool C slots.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

No drama this year.  We'll know the Pool C teams pretty much as soon as the final game ends Sunday night.  The only thing we'll have to wait for is the bracket.