MBB: NESCAC

[quicksilver]

Bowdoin is really hard to figure, eviscerating Colby after a tough league weekend, and the great effort vs Harvard before that.

One thing is for sure - Ray Cuevas is absolutely legit.  Reminiscent of Lucas Hausman in that he's explosive off the bounce, really hard to stay in front of, but a better deep shooter.  Bowdoin has a real star to build around. 

Some injuries to contend with, with both Kevin Reeves and Liam McBride out. The Reeves injury happened at the very beginning of the Tufts game. He is on crutches so likely a consequential injury. Not sure the nature of the McBride injury but he last played versus Tufts.

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts is +1 on the spread according to Massey Ratings against Williams, who has had no answer for the Jumbos in recent years. I'll take an alternate spread of Tufts -4.5 on the alternative line.

[nescac1]

Williams hasn't had a break-out offensive game yet, but over the last four games its defense has dramatically improved, holding the four opponents (including two top-ten teams on the road) to under 52 ppg on average (Tufts is better offensively, though worse defensively, than Trinity, so I would not expect another game in the 50s).  When the Ephs rebound (surely will be a challenge and a point of emphasis against Tufts) and avoid giving up points in transition, they are extremely difficult to find good looks against. 

I feel like with Porter and McGraw with some games under their belt and starting to shake some rust off, Roughley shooting a bit more efficiently in recent games, Yates coming into his own as a scorer, and Lee capable of a big game at any time, the offense is starting to show signs of life, it just has to all come together for 40 minutes.  Maybe it's not this weekend, but I'll go with Williams 68 Tufts 65. 

[names jaismith]

Week 2 Predictions
Friday
Conn 68 @ Midd 73
Bates 68 @ Bowdoin 79
Tufts 58 @ Williams 62
Trinity 75 @ Amherst 62
Wesleyan 70 @ Hamilton 71

Saturday
Wesleyan 76 @ Amherst 63
Trinity 72 @ Hamilton 59
Tufts 71 @ Midd 64
Conn 58 @ Williams 74
Colby 75 @ Bates 79

Lots of uncertainty after the top 3........

[jumbomumbo]

Williams hasn't had a break-out offensive game yet, but over the last four games its defense has dramatically improved, holding the four opponents (including two top-ten teams on the road) to under 52 ppg on average (Tufts is better offensively, though worse defensively, than Trinity, so I would not expect another game in the 50s).  When the Ephs rebound (surely will be a challenge and a point of emphasis against Tufts) and avoid giving up points in transition, they are extremely difficult to find good looks against. 

I feel like with Porter and McGraw with some games under their belt and starting to shake some rust off, Roughley shooting a bit more efficiently in recent games, Yates coming into his own as a scorer, and Lee capable of a big game at any time, the offense is starting to show signs of life, it just has to all come together for 40 minutes.  Maybe it's not this weekend, but I'll go with Williams 68 Tufts 65. 

I bet Williams scores in the 50s. the last 2 matchups w Tufts the Ephs scored 50 and 57, and Tufts is a very sound defensive team and will know how to defend every single action Williams throws at them. Karen was always the big variable however because of his 3 point shooting. Did williams find a shooting big replacement for him?

[jumbomumbo]

Jumbomumbo's week 2 predictions:
Saturday:
Conn 70 - Midd 73
Bates 75 - Bowdoin 65
Tufts 63 - Williams 54
Trinity 80 - Amherst 55
Wesleyan 75 - Hamilton 59

Sunday:
Wesleyan 85 - Amherst 55
Trinity 72 - Hamilton 59 (love that call names jaismith)
Tufts 82 - Midd 62
Williams 70 - Conn 60
Colby 87 - Bates 75.

I think Colby is the best of the Maine teams

[nescac1]

Williams is a very different team from last year's team vs. Tufts, with key players graduated as well as key additions.  Of the ten guys who played vs. Trinity, three were injured and did not play last season against Tufts (Glatzer, McGraw, Porter) and are still gradually working their way back into form, and two are FYs (Rein and Yates), one of whom led the Ephs in scoring this past weekend. Not to mention roles have changed for some of the players who are back (especially Lee and Hansen).  Even from the start of this season, the Ephs are a team very much in flux. Tufts has had less of a transition than Williams, but does have a few key differences as well (two of the top three scorers for Tufts in that game are gone, and Gettings returning from injury is key for the Jumbos).  It's just really hard to extrapolate a game from a year ago to this season. 

In all events, it's fair to say that Tufts deserves to be a slight favorite, even playing on the road, based on each team's results to date this year and the teams' respective rankings.  I put more stock in that than a game one year ago with a very different roster. 

As for the Maine teams, while it's hard to say how they stack up as there has been a lot of variance for all three teams, I'm not sure how you can say Colby is the best of the Maine teams. Bowdoin lost handily to Bates, but crushed Colby, and Colby lost to Bates as well.  I think any games between them are probably a toss-up, but after a rough start to the season, Bates has been playing competitive basketball against everyone, and is, surprisingly, 2-0 against its in state rivals so far. 

[D3BBALL]

Williams hasn't had a break-out offensive game yet, but over the last four games its defense has dramatically improved, holding the four opponents (including two top-ten teams on the road) to under 52 ppg on average (Tufts is better offensively, though worse defensively, than Trinity, so I would not expect another game in the 50s).  When the Ephs rebound (surely will be a challenge and a point of emphasis against Tufts) and avoid giving up points in transition, they are extremely difficult to find good looks against. 

I feel like with Porter and McGraw with some games under their belt and starting to shake some rust off, Roughley shooting a bit more efficiently in recent games, Yates coming into his own as a scorer, and Lee capable of a big game at any time, the offense is starting to show signs of life, it just has to all come together for 40 minutes.  Maybe it's not this weekend, but I'll go with Williams 68 Tufts 65. 

I bet Williams scores in the 50s. the last 2 matchups w Tufts the Ephs scored 50 and 57, and Tufts is a very sound defensive team and will know how to defend every single action Williams throws at them. Karen was always the big variable however because of his 3 point shooting. Did williams find a shooting big replacement for him?

I watched the Trinity Williams game, didn't seem like they have a big that can shoot the 3 consistently like Karrens. Roughley, did make 1 three early on, but nothing afterward and Hansen was 0-2 neither shot looked like a great stroke, those are the only 2 players that played center during that game. For the year Hansen is 6-14 and Roughley is 4-17, so doesn't seem to be their strong suit. I think Tufts has the players that can get up into Hansen that might limit his looks at threes. Going to be interesting to see how Williams guards Gyimesi, not sure they have anyone to handle him down low except Roughley and that leaves Hansen on Bernstein. Will be a good game to watch.

[D3BBALL]

Week 2 Predictions
Friday
Conn 68 @ Midd 73
Bates 68 @ Bowdoin 79
Tufts 58 @ Williams 62
Trinity 75 @ Amherst 62
Wesleyan 70 @ Hamilton 71

Saturday
Wesleyan 76 @ Amherst 63
Trinity 72 @ Hamilton 59
Tufts 71 @ Midd 64
Conn 58 @ Williams 74
Colby 75 @ Bates 79

Lots of uncertainty after the top 3........

You have lots of faith in Trinity, not sure they deserve that much, no blow out predictions except Conn/Williams, I like that.

I think Tufts beats Williams and Wesleyan wins both, they are just on a roll. But its NESCAC play you just never know.

[GoUBears]

Bowdoin lost handily to Bates

Although I don't expect Bowdoin to shoot 17.6% from 3PT or 31.6% at the free throw line as they did in the first game against Bates. I think tomorrow will be an entirely different Polar Bear experience. Also nice that they play them in Brunswick. Bates has been shooting the ball well and it should be a good game.

And I agree about Colby... their body of work does not suggest they are a better team than Bowdoin or Bates. In addition to losing to both Bates (-11) and Bowdoin (-19), their 2 best wins are Conn. and Maine-Farmington.

Maine wins against teams <200 NPI:
  Bates: 5
  Bowdoin: 4
  Colby: 1

[GoUBears]

NESCAC Game Result Charts (NPI+Margin)

Here are some charts that help visualize the results for each NESCAC team based on margin and opponent NPI.

[SpringSt7]

Williams hasn't had a break-out offensive game yet, but over the last four games its defense has dramatically improved, holding the four opponents (including two top-ten teams on the road) to under 52 ppg on average (Tufts is better offensively, though worse defensively, than Trinity, so I would not expect another game in the 50s).  When the Ephs rebound (surely will be a challenge and a point of emphasis against Tufts) and avoid giving up points in transition, they are extremely difficult to find good looks against. 

I feel like with Porter and McGraw with some games under their belt and starting to shake some rust off, Roughley shooting a bit more efficiently in recent games, Yates coming into his own as a scorer, and Lee capable of a big game at any time, the offense is starting to show signs of life, it just has to all come together for 40 minutes.  Maybe it's not this weekend, but I'll go with Williams 68 Tufts 65. 

I bet Williams scores in the 50s. the last 2 matchups w Tufts the Ephs scored 50 and 57, and Tufts is a very sound defensive team and will know how to defend every single action Williams throws at them. Karen was always the big variable however because of his 3 point shooting. Did williams find a shooting big replacement for him?

I watched the Trinity Williams game, didn't seem like they have a big that can shoot the 3 consistently like Karrens. Roughley, did make 1 three early on, but nothing afterward and Hansen was 0-2 neither shot looked like a great stroke, those are the only 2 players that played center during that game. For the year Hansen is 6-14 and Roughley is 4-17, so doesn't seem to be their strong suit. I think Tufts has the players that can get up into Hansen that might limit his looks at threes. Going to be interesting to see how Williams guards Gyimesi, not sure they have anyone to handle him down low except Roughley and that leaves Hansen on Bernstein. Will be a good game to watch.

I would expect Hansen on Gyemesi and Roughley on Bernstein. Hansen is more athletic and has more energy and Roughley would struggle to contain Gyemesi's drives. Williams will be content to let those two take contested shots in the paint as long as they can win the rebounding battle and not let the two of them clean up each other's misses. Morakis is historically the type of player they have done a good job on defensively but I don't know how awesome the matchups for Reilly (Yates I assume guards him) and Medley (Glatzer) will be.

It will be a great game if both teams continue on their current trajectories. I give Tufts the slight edge because clearly Linton has figured something out with Williams especially over the last two seasons.

Also don't sleep on the Conn/Williams game. They will either score 95 points against the zone or 45.

[jmh21]

Excited for Williams-Tufts tomorrow. While I'm a Williams fan teams with size like Tufts have certainly given the Ephs trouble the last few years, especially on the offensive glass. If Williams can avoid the slow starts that have hurt them at times then they can absolutely make this a game, just like they did both times last weekend. For a prediction I'd side with those predicting Tufts in a close one, hopefully I'm wrong.

[jumbomumbo]

Hansen on Gyimesi could be a tough one, Gyimesi plays real well off two feet and pivoting around to find the hook shot. Will also shoot the open 3. Guess we'll see what Williams decides to do

[nescac1]

Amherst's Charlie Randall is in the transfer portal:

https://x.com/charlierrandall/status/1878969231641076148

Theo Pow is an interesting recent recruit for Colby - he is ranked number 2 in Maine by NERR and at 6'3 he can really throw it down:

https://awww.hudl.com/video/3/17220568/6632c0e0f6745a59383ce588
https://www.hudl.com/video/3/17220568/6786b3bfbd0d985fa42cf4b0