MBB: NESCAC

[jumbomumbo]

Someone at the top is going to be really not pleased to get stuck with Williams in the first round, even though it probably won't end up mattering. D3Datacast still has them as the 29th best team in the country (I would push back on that) and they have missed the semifinals just once since 2016. They can still get to 5-5 in league (6-4 seems very unlikely) but even that would be a bit of a stretch.

Unlikely but possible nonetheless that Williams plays at Amherst for the 8 seed in the last game of the regular season. Woof

Agree no one wants them in first round. D3 datacast has them rated 29 in efficiency ratings but wouldn't go with that. Would use NPI where they are 62nd overall and 35th rank as an at large selection. Might end up higher if upsets occur in other conference tourney results. They will need deep run in NESCAC tourney, if they make, to have any shot.

Tufts wouldn't mind seeing Williams first round. The way Trin has beat up on us is similar to how we've beat up on Williams, and for 3-4 years now.

[el_jefe_90]

While there's only 4 (3 for a couple of teams) games left, a lot can happen. Surprisingly, there's a world where Williams can get the 4 seed. While it's far out there, there's still a possibility. It's also still a shot for Hamilton to get the 2 seed. Other than Wesleyan being the #1 seed and Bowdoin and Bates more than likely not being in the NESCAC Tournament, a lot is still up for grabs.

jumbomumbo - Agree with Tufts having Williams number. Last time the Ephs beat the Jumbos was the 2020 regular season finale. A bit shocking as Williams was rebuilding that year and Tufts had a legit shot at a deeper NCAA run until the season shut down.

[Pat Coleman]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

NPI rates your on-court performance without paying attention to how close a game is. Efficiency ratings do this better.

[SpringSt7]

jumbomumbo - Agree with Tufts having Williams number. Last time the Ephs beat the Jumbos was the 2020 regular season finale. A bit shocking as Williams was rebuilding that year and Tufts had a legit shot at a deeper NCAA run until the season shut down.

That was a great game although that Williams team was also a little better than their record showed.

Linton is undefeated vs. App in fact and all of the games have been reasonably fair matchups on paper. 2022 is the only one that maybe their was a built in excuse because Williams' main guys hadn't played a game in nearly a month post Omicron but both teams are have been equal and Tufts has come out on top every time.

I wonder if their coaching connections (Linton actually replaced App on staff at Army) and working for the same people/same philosophies gives him a leg up in terms of gameplanning for and playing against Williams style, although to be completely honest this is hardly the Mike Maker Princeton offense of yesteryear. Hard to imagine it isn't at least a small factor

[el_jefe_90]

I wonder if their coaching connections (Linton actually replaced App on staff at Army) and working for the same people/same philosophies gives him a leg up in terms of gameplanning for and playing against Williams style, although to be completely honest this is hardly the Mike Maker Princeton offense of yesteryear. Hard to imagine it isn't at least a small factor
[/quote]

Speaking of the great Mike Maker, I saw St. Thomas play NDSU on TV yesterday. A lot of D3 connections in that one. Of course, Maker being the associate head coach at St. Thomas and the former Ephs coach was the NESCAC one. Miles Barnstable played at UW-Whitewater for two years before transferring to St. Thomas. He's currently leading the team in scoring. And St. Thomas was a D3 program until they were too good and their conference kicked them out.

Also, apologies for bringing up Whitewater! I'm sure Williams fans are still kept up at night after the end of the 2014 title game.

[D3BBALL]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

Agree but I am pretty sure efficiency will have nothing to do with whether you are an at large bid, just the teams npi rating.

[D3BBALL]

While there's only 4 (3 for a couple of teams) games left, a lot can happen. Surprisingly, there's a world where Williams can get the 4 seed. While it's far out there, there's still a possibility. It's also still a shot for Hamilton to get the 2 seed. Other than Wesleyan being the #1 seed and Bowdoin and Bates more than likely not being in the NESCAC Tournament, a lot is still up for grabs.

jumbomumbo - Agree with Tufts having Williams number. Last time the Ephs beat the Jumbos was the 2020 regular season finale. A bit shocking as Williams was rebuilding that year and Tufts had a legit shot at a deeper NCAA run until the season shut down.

On tournament seeding yes anything can happen but would take a lot for Trinity and tufts to move out of spots 2 and 3. Each I believe would need to lose 2 out of 3 games.
2 years ago I think the last regular season game, Williams vs. Conn, Williams with a win was the #1 seed with a loss would have been the 6th seed.

[el_jefe_90]

On tournament seeding yes anything can happen but would take a lot for Trinity and tufts to move out of spots 2 and 3. Each I believe would need to lose 2 out of 3 games.
2 years ago I think the last regular season game, Williams vs. Conn, Williams with a win was the #1 seed with a loss would have been the 6th seed.

Both Tufts and Trinity are currently 5-2 and Hamilton is 4-2. If Hamilton wins out, which one of those would be against Tufts, and Trinity loses one of their last three, Hamilton would get the 2 seed with an 8-2 record. Tufts and Trinity would be 7-3 at best in this scenario. I don't think this will actually happen, but you can't rule it out.

[D3BBALL]

On tournament seeding yes anything can happen but would take a lot for Trinity and tufts to move out of spots 2 and 3. Each I believe would need to lose 2 out of 3 games.
2 years ago I think the last regular season game, Williams vs. Conn, Williams with a win was the #1 seed with a loss would have been the 6th seed.

Both Tufts and Trinity are currently 5-2 and Hamilton is 4-2. If Hamilton wins out, which one of those would be against Tufts, and Trinity loses one of their last three, Hamilton would get the 2 seed with an 8-2 record. Tufts and Trinity would be 7-3 at best in this scenario. I don't think this will actually happen, but you can't rule it out.

I said it would take a lot, not that it couldn't happen or rule it out. Hamilton would also have to beat Middlebury and Williams as well as Conn on the road. 3 out of their 4 wins are against teams with a combined record of 5 and 15 in the league. Very nice win against Colby, but they don't play defense. My predictions were based on being realistic not just any chance. Heck both trinity and tufts could win out and Wesleyan could lose all 3 and Wesleyan could then be the 3rd seed, just not realistic.

[SpringSt7]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

Agree but I am pretty sure efficiency will have nothing to do with whether you are an at large bid, just the teams npi rating.

Williams is not making the NCAA tournament and no one with 20+ wins will be fired up to play them in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. Two unrelated thoughts

[D3BBALL]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

Agree but I am pretty sure efficiency will have nothing to do with whether you are an at large bid, just the teams npi rating.

Williams is not making the NCAA tournament and no one with 20+ wins will be fired up to play them in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. Two unrelated thoughts

Agree, Williams would have to pretty much win out in the regular season. And then make it to the finals and probably win the finals. But someone said they are ranked 29th in efficiency rankings. My only point was that to make the NCAA's it's all about NPI rankings, and efficiency rankings have nothing to do with making the NCAA and they are not good in NPI ranking.

[ziggy]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

Agree but I am pretty sure efficiency will have nothing to do with whether you are an at large bid, just the teams npi rating.

Williams is not making the NCAA tournament and no one with 20+ wins will be fired up to play them in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. Two unrelated thoughts

Agree, Williams would have to pretty much win out in the regular season. And then make it to the finals and probably win the finals. But someone said they are ranked 29th in efficiency rankings. My only point was that to make the NCAA's it's all about NPI rankings, and efficiency rankings have nothing to do with making the NCAA and they are not good in NPI ranking.

Based on our most recent simulations (through games played 2/3), Williams receives an at-large bid just 7% of the time they need one: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Our main topic on this week's epsiode of The D3 Datacast was looking at the developing bubble picture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68atzG-ClXE

[jumbomumbo]

NPI rates your resume and the efficiency ratings rank your on court performance. They are two different things.

Agree but I am pretty sure efficiency will have nothing to do with whether you are an at large bid, just the teams npi rating.

Williams is not making the NCAA tournament and no one with 20+ wins will be fired up to play them in the NESCAC Quarterfinals. Two unrelated thoughts

Agree, Williams would have to pretty much win out in the regular season. And then make it to the finals and probably win the finals. But someone said they are ranked 29th in efficiency rankings. My only point was that to make the NCAA's it's all about NPI rankings, and efficiency rankings have nothing to do with making the NCAA and they are not good in NPI ranking.

Based on our most recent simulations (through games played 2/3), Williams receives an at-large bid just 7% of the time they need one: https://d3datacast.com/npi/mbb-projections/

Our main topic on this week's epsiode of The D3 Datacast was looking at the developing bubble picture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68atzG-ClXE

Here's a glimmer of hope for the Williams fans.

I believe Stockton had similar chances last year - and they got the bid. And I think most everyone involved in NCAA would like to have Williams around if they can justify it. Win out, make a nescac championship, and they might just squeak in.

[Greek Tragedy]

The selection process from last year to this year is literally night and day. Last year, the selection committee could argue for and against Stockton getting in or not compared to other Pool C teams at the table. This year, you simply look at a number. If they're Pool C 21, they're in.

[Greek Tragedy]

"And I think most everyone involved in NCAA would like to have Williams around if they can justify it..."

What does that even mean? You make it sound like it's a popularity contest.