MBB: NESCAC

[jumbomumbo]

Very well-rounded contributions for the Ephs, all five starters plus Dinkins and Rein off the bench all had solid games, and Porter hit huge back-to-back threes at a critical juncture in the second.  Aidan Yates when he has it going is fun to watch, he has a lot of weapons in his offensive arsenal. Jack Lawson was on fire for Colby, a lot of pretty finishes inside. The Ephs did a nice job hounding Poulton until he got on track late in the game, once he gets into a rhythm, it's scary for a defense.  It must be fun for everyone (win or lose) to play an up-and-down game vs. Colby after all the other NESCAC grind-em-out slogs. 

Watched a good amount of Hamilton-Conn as well.  Espinosa did not play for Conn and if he continues to be out that's a massive loss for them, so much of what they do on offense involves getting shots for him or openings off the attention he generates. 

I was focusing on Hank Morgan and I'm sorry I just can't see how he's not the POTY, the eye test backs up the insane stats. He is by a very wide margin the best offensive player in the league, he's playing at a first-team all-American level right now.  He is deadly from everywhere and just has a crazy bag, so quick and decisive with his moves with incredible touch from deep, in the mid-range, and using the glass around the rim. He finds really tough scoring angles, as he always has a crowd of guys focused on him, and it simply doesn't matter.  He is clearly a student of the game, as his scoring average, and FG, FT, and 3 PT percentage have each increased each year he's been in the league.  He wasn't a high-level three point shooter until this year, but now that he's gotten more reliable from deep, there is really no way to defend him one-on-one, because his mid-range game and game around the rim are insane, and he's money from the line. 

Regan is great, and Wesleyan is clearly the best team, but they have a lot of depth led by two all-stars.  Every coach in the league would pick Morgan as their first choice of players. 

Regan POTY - think tufts will have a scheme tmr for Morgan. His team literally hasn't lost a game. And he's the key player. It's a no brainer

[D3BBALL]

If Morgan lights up tufts, give him POY. If not, it is Regan's. Morgan having very good year. But against Wesleyan, he was not good in the second half. Against Trinity he was guarded by a back up point guard and a back up center when the game got decided and he did very little and had turnovers. Again, if he lights it up today and makes it a game against Tufts give them POY.  He also takes more shots per game than both Regan and Gyimesi. Just because someone scores the most points doesn't make them auto for POY.

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Tufts is on pace to beat Hamilton 104-50. It is halftime. I do not understand why Hamilton doesn't set ball screens at the top of the key. Free up Morgan. They are getting clamped in man and zone. They do nothing to free him up. He has 2 points at halftime

[jumpshot]

EPHS down by 14 with 10 minutes remaining hold Bowdoin scoreless for the next 8 minutes, defeating the Polar Bears 66-63. Gritty win by a well-coached Williams team ....

[D3BBALL]

League it's just so tough. If Williams wins out, I think they are basically the fourth seed. Who would've thought that was possible last week?

[nescac1]

D3Bball, it's not just the massive point totals for Morgan, it's how crazily efficient he is and how little help he gets relative to any other star in the league.  Basketball is a team game and Wesleyan simply has a much better TEAM around Regan.  Regan is having a GREAT year but Morgan is having among the best if not the best offensive seasons the league has ever seen.  He scored, what, 29 in the second half vs. Tufts??

In 8 league games, Morgan is putting up a 27.4-5.0-2.1 line with only one turnover per game, which is just crazy with his usage rate.  His splits in league play are otherworldly - 60/49/88.  To be that efficient on that high volume when every team is designing its entire defense around stopping you is simply nuts. 

Regan (before today) has a tremendous stat line in league play too - 20.6-4.0-2.3, also only one TOPG, on 56/40/84 splits.  POTY worthy most years.  If the two were close I'd say of course give it to Regan.  But 7 more ppg on better shooting across the board is too big a discrepancy to ignore. 

Plenty of time left and it's a close race.  But those who are saying it's a slam dunk for Regan are nuts.

On to the outlook for the league tourney.  Assuming Wesleyan holds on to beat Bates, which I feel pretty good about:

Wesleyan has clinched the one seed and Bowdoin and Bates are both out.  I'd say at this point Wesleyan is a virtual lock for a number one seed in the NCAA tourney, as well.  Tufts and Trinity will almost surely be the 2-3 seeds with Trinity having the tiebreaker edge.  Both are already locks for the NCAA tourney and control their own destiny as potential pod hosts.  But spots 4-9 are completely up in the air.  The Midd/Williams/Amherst/Hamilton weekend will decide a ton.

Hamilton is a lock for the tourney and right now controls the 4 seed, but could easily drop a few spots depending on how next weekend goes. Hamilton is well-positioned for a Pool C bid but a two loss weekend next weekend could push them to the wrong side of the bubble.  One win is probably enough to get in.

For Williams, likewise, win two and I think they are the 4 seed.  Lose two and they could be out of the tourney entirely (if Midd loses to Amherst but beats Hamilton, Amherst, Midd, Williams and maybe Conn would all have four wins, but Williams would lose the tiebreaker to all of them, although they'd win the tiebreaker against Colby if Colby finishes with 4 wins, as appears likely, so who knows). The Ephs are barely hanging on in the Pool C picture.  I think three straight wins and a NESCAC semi loss might be enough to do it, but it's unclear.  There is no one else in the league who can earn a Pool C under any scenario. 

I think Amherst is out of the tourney entirely if they lose to Midd on Friday, so that's a do-or-die game for them; that would be the second time in three seasons, just brutal if that occurs.  Colby, Conn, and Williams all certainly clinch a tourney spot with one win.  In other wins, it's a true free-for-all for spots 4-8.  Should be fun! 

[nescac1]

Not a NESCAC play but holy cow this has to be the shot of the year in D3. Love his reaction too, nonchalants it like, yeah, I knew that was in the whole way. 

https://x.com/commish82/status/1888334990536274078

[nescac1]

Man, NESCAC play is crazy.  I swear I was not trying to jinx Wesleyan - Pouye hit a TOUGH clutch fadeaway two to tie the game as Bates comes all the way back to send the game to OT.  Wesleyan perhaps feeling the pressure?  The Bates gym certainly is not a friendly place for anyone when it's packed like this ...

[jumbomumbo]

D3Bball, it's not just the massive point totals for Morgan, it's how crazily efficient he is and how little help he gets relative to any other star in the league.  Basketball is a team game and Wesleyan simply has a much better TEAM around Regan.  Regan is having a GREAT year but Morgan is having among the best if not the best offensive seasons the league has ever seen.  He scored, what, 29 in the second half vs. Tufts??

In 8 league games, Morgan is putting up a 27.4-5.0-2.1 line with only one turnover per game, which is just crazy with his usage rate.  His splits in league play are otherworldly - 60/49/88.  To be that efficient on that high volume when every team is designing its entire defense around stopping you is simply nuts. 

Regan (before today) has a tremendous stat line in league play too - 20.6-4.0-2.3, also only one TOPG, on 56/40/84 splits.  POTY worthy most years.  If the two were close I'd say of course give it to Regan.  But 7 more ppg on better shooting across the board is too big a discrepancy to ignore. 

Plenty of time left and it's a close race.  But those who are saying it's a slam dunk for Regan are nuts.

On to the outlook for the league tourney.  Assuming Wesleyan holds on to beat Bates, which I feel pretty good about:

Wesleyan has clinched the one seed and Bowdoin and Bates are both out.  I'd say at this point Wesleyan is a virtual lock for a number one seed in the NCAA tourney, as well.  Tufts and Trinity will almost surely be the 2-3 seeds with Trinity having the tiebreaker edge.  Both are already locks for the NCAA tourney and control their own destiny as potential pod hosts.  But spots 4-9 are completely up in the air.  The Midd/Williams/Amherst/Hamilton weekend will decide a ton.

Hamilton is a lock for the tourney and right now controls the 4 seed, but could easily drop a few spots depending on how next weekend goes. Hamilton is well-positioned for a Pool C bid but a two loss weekend next weekend could push them to the wrong side of the bubble.  One win is probably enough to get in.

For Williams, likewise, win two and I think they are the 4 seed.  Lose two and they could be out of the tourney entirely (if Midd loses to Amherst but beats Hamilton, Amherst, Midd, Williams and maybe Conn would all have four wins, but Williams would lose the tiebreaker to all of them, although they'd win the tiebreaker against Colby if Colby finishes with 4 wins, as appears likely, so who knows). The Ephs are barely hanging on in the Pool C picture.  I think three straight wins and a NESCAC semi loss might be enough to do it, but it's unclear.  There is no one else in the league who can earn a Pool C under any scenario. 

I think Amherst is out of the tourney entirely if they lose to Midd on Friday, so that's a do-or-die game for them; that would be the second time in three seasons, just brutal if that occurs.  Colby, Conn, and Williams all certainly clinch a tourney spot with one win.  In other wins, it's a true free-for-all for spots 4-8.  Should be fun!

He didn't score when it mattered, and tufts got up 30 in the first half. It is Regan's to lose, and Gyimesi is a close second. Gyimesi will win it next year. Morgan is a great player, but this argument is just about over

[D3BBALL]

Jumbo, I agree. If anyone wants to say that Morgan is the best offensive player in the league, fine. But when it mattered against the three best teams, he didn't do it. And he didn't find another way to help his team. He's the best scorer in the league. That doesn't make you the best Player in the league.
Just watch the Wesleyan versus conn game. Conn wouldn't let Regan shoot. They took that away from him and what does he do, has nine assists.
If Hamilton splits next weekend, they could be the fifth seed.

[D3BBALL]

Congrats to Bates today. Nothing to play for except senior day and what a great effort they had against Wesleyan. No other team has done what they did today for 40 minutes against Wesleyan. This is what makes college basketball so much fun.

[jumbomumbo]

Great alumni weekend in Boston. Will be extremely disappointed if there are not at least 3 more jumbo's on these boards. The invite has been sent.

[jumbomumbo]

Not a NESCAC play but holy cow this has to be the shot of the year in D3. Love his reaction too, nonchalants it like, yeah, I knew that was in the whole way. 

https://x.com/commish82/status/1888334990536274078

This shot is actually insane. Equally insane is that the entire bench for the opponent was sprinting to the locker room while the ball was rattling around the rim. Convinced there is not a better sport out there than basketball.

[SpringSt7]

Williams can technically get all the way up to the 3 seed because of their win over Trinity but that seems very unlikely. They have played better as of late although the Bowdoin win wasn't as clean as it could've been - but they were battling through some illness + what not and found a way to get it done.

When they lose in the NESCAC SFs to a good team by like 4 and finish 18-8 and miss the tournament, it is going to sting. Not that they really would've made a ton of noise in March but never bet against App in a tournament setting.  The Conn and Midd losses, both at home, just inexcusable at the end of the day.

If you're looking for one stat that sums the year up, it's going 7-5 at home. Not gonna cut it in the big picture

[D3BBALL]

Looking at NPI numbers Williams is at #24 at large. If they can beat Hamilton, big if, and get 3 more wins, they might just have a shot.