MBB: NESCAC

[D3BBALL]

Ok hold the presses!!!
I think all 4 teams have a shot. Wesleyan 40% Tufts/Trinity 25% each, Hamilton 10%.

Wesleyan/Hamilton. Wesleyan at home don't see them losing. That being said the last 2 games Wesleyan played, against teams not close to  as good as Hamilton, Wesleyan could have easily lost both. Expect Morgan to bounce back from last game and if Singh has a good game watch out. But not going against Wesleyan, Johnson/Regan going to be too much. Wesleyan 76 Hamilton 59

Tufts/Trinity- neutral site, would expect more Trinity fans, but guessing Tufts will show up big. Trinity has won 4 in a row against tufts and have contained Gyimesi fairly well in those games. 3 of those games not really close in the last 5-7 minutes. Can the Tufts guards produce on both ends. Odds and everything says it's about time for Tufts to get a win, so I will go Trinity 82 Tufts 70. Sorry Jumbo, can't go against a run.

Not going to predict finals yet, especially since I have been so good at predicting, not! Will wait until I know teams and then have 50/50 shot.

[D3BBALL]

Ryan Scott's Twitter projection for the NCAA tournament has all of Wesleyan, Trinity, Tufts, and Hamilton hosting an NCAA tournament pod. By far the best conference in D3 this year. No one counter with UAA please - they couldn't compete in last years tournament.

I've watched a fair amount of UAA basketball this season, along with a fair amount of NESCAC basketball, and I'd agree that the NESCAC is having a better season top to bottom. But it doesn't really mean anything.

I do think the ODAC as a league is also very competitive year in and year out and has had teams win the national title recently while the NESCAC hasn't of late. Maybe not quite as deep as the NESCAC but the top 5-6 teams could all play with anyone.

Excited for this weekend, the four best teams all season are still playing and I think that's gonna make for a great two days of hoops in Middletown.

I couldn't agree more. No way is Wesleyan undefeated if they had to play in UAA. Take Emory and NYU and put them in NESCAC, no way all 6 teams make the NCAA. But I have watched both Emory and NYU a few times as well, and think both might just be better than Wesleyan, Tufts and Trinity. I think UAA might be deeper.
But when it comes to tourney who knows what will happen. Last year 3 NESCAC all made sweet 16 and not sure  most would have predicted that. Year before I think 4 NESCAC teams made it to the dance none made it out of first weekend.
Should be a fun weekend to watch these games.

[Greek Tragedy]

I ventured down to Milwaukee to watch the Bucks beat the Heat. There was a Duncan Robinson sighting. He didn't do much, but I imagine the game plan was to shut him down, and it must have worked. That's okay making 18 million a year and hanging out in South Beach can't be that bad. Milwaukee area's own Tyler Herro went for 40 in a losing effort.

[SpringSt7]

I have felt that Tufts was going to win the league all year and won't back off it now but Trinity and Wesleyan back to back in CT is a big ask. D3Datacast has Trinity as the #1 team in the country and Wesleyan #2. Good luck

Also, in regards to best conference (an argument that I also don't really care about either), there are 4 NCAA tournament teams in the league and 7 teams with 10+ losses. I think the league, if it gets 4 hosts, should be thankful this was the year where regionally ranked wins disappeared.

[22Knowles]

Wesleyan's Nicky Johnson got poked in the eye and left the game with 11 minutes remaining on Saturday.   Regan put the Cardinals on his back from there.   Big factor this weekend will be whether Johnson is 100%.  The atmosphere at Wesleyan is outstanding!   Standing room only and loud!  Should be that way again on Saturday.

[rdanie03]

Saturday predictions:

Wesleyan 76 - Hamilton 64
Tufts 69-Trinity 67

Sunday prediction:

Tufts 71- Wesleyan 63. Cue the duck boats!!

I like this take. I think that if Tufts gets past Trinity, they are very likely to win the title. The bantams have been a problem for Linton, so I have some serious questions about their ability to get to the final

[names jaismith]

Semis
Wesleyan 76
Hamilton 68

Trinity 73 
Tufts 68

[JEFFFAN]

Four post-Hixon seasons at Amherst has yielded the following results:

Overall record   53-46
NESCAC record    18-22

The definition of mediocrity and irrelevance.  Wonder how long the Sears tenure lasts?

[jumbomumbo]

I have felt that Tufts was going to win the league all year and won't back off it now but Trinity and Wesleyan back to back in CT is a big ask. D3Datacast has Trinity as the #1 team in the country and Wesleyan #2. Good luck

Also, in regards to best conference (an argument that I also don't really care about either), there are 4 NCAA tournament teams in the league and 7 teams with 10+ losses. I think the league, if it gets 4 hosts, should be thankful this was the year where regionally ranked wins disappeared.

Tufts of anyone has big wins against non conference opponents. They would still be hosting. But generally agree

[nescac1]

Looking at the eliminated teams, here are the ppg that are lost from rotation players:

5. Conn College - 24.6 out of 64.7 lost to graduation
6. Williams - 18.4 out of 67.3
7. Colby - 19.9 out of 78.7
8. Amherst - 39.6 out of 68
9. Middlebury - 19.9 out of 75.4
10. Bates - 3.9 out of 66.5 (only 11 games played)
11. Bowdoin - 15.3 out of 67

Points aren't everything of course - Brennan for example is a bigger loss for Midd than just his point totals reflect - but projecting forward based on that seems reasonable.  Just looking at those stats, and of course you never know what sort of impact FYs will make and how other players will develop, the outlook for Amherst is not exactly rosy - the senior class they lost was very good and most of them were four-year players for the Mammoths.  Bates is the team with the most upside relative to current standings, especially after taking both Wesleyan and Tufts to OT late in the season; they could leap 4-5 spots in the NESCAC standings next year.  Pretty much everyone else is poised to potentially improve at least a few games as a team, assuming the rest of the roster returns basically intact.  Williams and Colby in particular have the talent to take a pretty fair leap forward next season.  Middlebury as well if they have much better luck with health than they have had the past few seasons. 

Of course, there is always concern, in today's landscape, about players transferring out.  I'm sure Bowdoin is concerned that D1 schools will try to poach Cuevas after a dominant first year, which would be a massive loss for them and likely keep them towards the bottom of the league.  I don't think any other underclassmen from this group really have a D1 sort of profile, other than maybe Pouye on Bates, and that would probably be a stretch. 

If Regan returns for a fifth year, Wesleyan, Tufts, and Trinity should all be top-ten teams nationally to start next season, likely top five for all three considering that many of the other top 12 teams will lose a ton to graduation.  Without Regan, Wesleyan should still be good but is likely to drop back down to the pack with both of the engines for their offense gone.  Hamilton is really the only top-tier team which would suffer massive losses in that scenario.  Just about everyone else in the league is a credible threat to get up to fourth, maybe third depending on how things go, but it's going to be extremely tough to catch up to the very top teams and their loaded (potentially loaded for Wes) rising senior classes for at least another season.   

[D3BBALL]

Four post-Hixon seasons at Amherst has yielded the following results:

Overall record   53-46
NESCAC record    18-22

The definition of mediocrity and irrelevance.  Wonder how long the Sears tenure lasts?

Well, I believe they're going to have a new A.D. So we might know really quick. If alumni have any say it won't be long. Although they did finish strong this year so you have to give him some credit for their last three games.

[Bucket]

Big news out of Middlebury:

https://athletics.middlebury.edu/news/2025/2/24/mens-basketball-jeff-brown-to-retire-at-end-of-academic-year.aspx

[nescac1]

Wow, huge news indeed for Middlebury.  Coach Brown is definitely a one-of-one, and built that program from a non factor in NESCAC to a national power for a full 15 years.  Always a class act as well.  Midd teams, starting with the Rudin era, were always tough as nails and incredibly well-prepared on both ends.

Midd is certainly one of the best coaching jobs in the country now, and I have to think Midd learns some lessons from Amherst and keeps it in the family ...

[SpringSt7]

Not sure if this is what nescac1 is referring to but you would have to think that Jake Brown is the immediate favorite. Middlebury does not have the same level of basketball family to draw from that Amherst does however, so we will see if that matters. The big thing to watch for in my opinion is whether or not this draws a D1 assistant crowd - or if Middlebury wants that for their program.

[nescac1]

I wasn't intending to be literal SpringSt but yeah Jake Brown certainly makes a lot of sense.  Kyle Dudley was it seemed like a potential successor too not sure if that's still in play.  I'm sure there must be others ...