MBB: NESCAC

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts hosting Yeshiva. Winner plays winner of St Joes ME and Redlands CA

[D3Reporter]

Bottom left quadrant looks like the quadrant of death to me...

[nescac1]

Full bracket here: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/y/5/dxijdwggjj2wj5/mbb-bracket-2025.pdf

I think (as you'd expect for the top overall seed) Wesleyan has the smoothest path to the Final Four of any NESCAC team, although certainly not an easy one.  WPI in the round of 16 could be tricky, they have the formula (like RPI which upset the last loaded Wesleyan team in the tourney) to make it a bruising grind-it-out sort of game, always very disciplined and physical on D, and they beat Tufts convincingly early in the year.  But Wesleyan is certainly a more talented team and will be at home.  Emory-Wesleyan in the Elite 8 would be really fun, a showdown between two of the very best backcourts in the country would be electric.  Guilford is also a team that had a deep run last year and could easily advance from that bracket. 

I agree that the Trinity-Hamilton bracket is TOUGH.  Keene has been up and down but led by Brito are talented enough to give Trinity a game in the second round, although Keene's D is pretty leaky overall and they don't really have any size or physicality inside, Trinity would I suspect crush them on the boards if they meet.  I like Hamilton and Trinity to meet in the Sweet 16.  But the winner of that one would almost surely get CNU or RMC, two of the last three national champions and both are loaded up yet again and play such stifling defense in the tournament, either one is so adept at taking away what you want to do on offense. RMC-CNU in the Sweet 16 is a tough beat for both.  And Roanoke is no picnic either in that part of the bracket.  Trinity against either RMC or CNU might be a game that both teams struggle to crack 50. 

Tufts should cruise into the Sweet 16 but then things get much tougher with Hampden-Sydney the most likely opponent and then, most likely, NYU in the Elite 8 in what would be a great rematch from last year's tourney game (against a completely different NYU team, NYU defends much better, is more balanced, and is more physical than last year's team but without of course the transcendent point guard).  Tristan How vs. the Tufts bigs would be really fun to watch.  Brazil is truly elite for Hampden-Sydney, a big-game player, but Tufts can at least harass him for 40 minutes with a rotation of Medley and Kennelly. 

I'll say Wesleyan / RMC / NYU / Platteville as my final four picks but Trinity or Tufts could very easily get there and I like both to make the Elite 8, where anything can happen.  Hamilton just has too tough a road I think and too much depends on Morgan and Singh playing stellar every single game. 

[D3BBALL]

Agree with nescac1. Last year they put trinity in the toughest bracket and they were not even a one seed. Hopefully if they make it to 2nd weekend they still play at home. Looks like CN is the only team outside the 500 mile rule, so hopefully ncaa doesn't screw them. But have to get there first.

Agree Wesleyan has easiest way to ft Wayne for the 4 NESCAC teams, but I think the bottom right quadrant is the weakest of the 4 regions. Guilford who is on a nice run will most likely get Emory. So no guarantee Emory in elite 8 against Wesleyan. I don't see WPI giving Wesleyan any trouble. Just zero inside game and Wesleyan defends just as well. Will be a nice game to watch the 2 point guards go at it though.

I like Tufts draw until elite 8. Then they have nyu, but they beat them last year, just not sure the team this year is as good.

Hamilton it's too bad they have to potentially play Trinity in sweet 16, but not sure they could have been placed anywhere else to avoid 1 of the 3 NESCAC teams in that game. No way any NESCAC teams were going to be place in the lower right quadrant. Could easily see Morgan carrying that team a long way.

I am going to be a homer and take Wesleyan, Trinity, Tufts and then Wash U.

[jumbomumbo]

MUMBOS FINAL FOUR:

Emory. Backup: Wesleyan
Trinity. Backup: CNU
Tufts. Backup: HS
UW-Platteville. Backup: Wash U

MUMBOS NATIONAL CHAMPION: TUFTS UNIVERSITY JUMBOS

[el_jefe_90]

Congratulations to Trinity on winning the NESCAC and for Hamilton, Tufts and Wesleyan getting into the tournament! The NESCAC is poised to have a nice run.

For the 1st Round, Wesleyan, Trinity and Tufts should be able to take care of business. Hamilton has a tough draw in my opinion with Western New England. They are a very good team with 5 players in double figures scoring. Really good rebounding team as well. I don't think anyone can stop Morgan, but I wouldn't be surprised if WNEU pulls this one out.

Here's to Friday!

[jumbomumbo]

Congratulations to Trinity on winning the NESCAC and for Hamilton, Tufts and Wesleyan getting into the tournament! The NESCAC is poised to have a nice run.

For the 1st Round, Wesleyan, Trinity and Tufts should be able to take care of business. Hamilton has a tough draw in my opinion with Western New England. They are a very good team with 5 players in double figures scoring. Really good rebounding team as well. I don't think anyone can stop Morgan, but I wouldn't be surprised if WNEU pulls this one out.

Here's to Friday!

WNE head coach is former Trinity player Colin Tabb. He seemingly brought the trin toughness and size mentality to WNE, and it worked out. Some teams in that league have talent, but don't have an "additive" coach to both win games and find physical, college bodied recruits. I have followed the CNE very, very closely. WNE runs good sets and they execute. It'll be a good game. I think Hamilton wins, but don't count out the Golden Bears. Suffolk's HC is also great. Two young, brilliant coaches.

I think Colin Tabb will eventually take the Trinity job once Cosgrove retires.

[SpringSt7]

Sporadic thoughts

1. Tufts getting the 1:15 draw is pretty unlucky for a home game but assuming they get through that, the extra time for the coaches to prep and the players to rest for St. Joe's/Redlands will make a difference. Redlands isn't quite at peak Whitman ball from 2016-19 but that is still a hell of a style to prep for. St. Joe's scores 92 a game as well - I would add that game on Friday to the top of the list of non NESCAC games to watch.

2. Great draw for Wesleyan - this HAS to be the year they see the second weekend. Anything less would be shocking but it's never happened for Reilly and if they are down like 6 with 10 minutes left in front of a huge crowd, you get tight, etc. Who knows, but they have to get it done this year. Agreed that WPI should not pose a huge threat but they will be ready to go for that if it comes up

3. A lot of schools in this tournament that the Middlebury athletic department should be keeping an eye on, especially in that lower left quadrant!

[rdanie03]

Final Four. Tufts Emory Trinity IWU. Winner Trinity over Tufts in the natty

[jumbomumbo]

NESCAC Round of 64 predictions:

Trinity 85- Neumann 49
Wesleyan 79 - Delaware Valley 55
Tufts 85 - Yeshiva 62
Hamilton 74- WNE 73

BONUS PREDICTIONS:
St John's MN to the elite 8.
Keene State 78- Clark 77
Drew Sagedahl on Bethany Lutheran drops 40 against IWU, possibly in a win.
St Joes stuns Redlands, 80-67
Stockton to Sweet 16.
Hamilton Trinity Sweet 16 matchup scares the Bantams but they escape in a close win - game likely neutral site at RM or CNU.

Cal Lu to the sweet 16.

Husson beats WPI. They almost beat NYU in the round of 64 last year and have HOOPERS.

Drew to sweet 16.

Roanoke possible dark horse.

At least one of the hosts gets a first round scare similar to Tufts Western Conn in 2019-2020 season, where the jumbos faced a full court press and had more turnovers than points 15 mins into the game. We got down 22 and found a way to win. The host will find a way to win this game.

At least one brawl in one of the 32 games.

3 coaches receive technical fouls.

Other interesting tidbits:
Tufts plays at 1:15 and the next game isn't until 3. I believe this has to do with the Sabbath. This will be the most watched Round of 64 game.

15/16 of the Round of 32 games have a set time. The tufts pod does not.

[SpringSt7]

Correct mumbo - the Tufts Yeshiva game is earlier so that Yeshiva can finish without having to worry about sunset. A disadvantage for Tufts' homecourt advantage unfortunately and yes also the reason the Round of 32 game is not set yet.

St. Joe's is actually 6 spots ahead of Redlands in the d3datacast efficiency ratings so I don't know if it would be a shock upset but I can give you the patented SpringSt7 guarantee that the 9th highest tempo and the 11th highest tempo in D3 matching up will produce more than 147 points!

[nescac1]

I'll take the "under" on the brawl prediction. 

[Painter66]

In reference to the comments about how Middlebury might select a coach this year, I am sure it will not be related to who is the "hot guy now. As a former player who actually pre-dates the last three Midd coaches but has followed the team since for a long time, and actually knows people there, I am sure it will be a very careful selection. The current NCAA trends that favor size and university programs will make this a much difficult decision, if we want to continue on a pattern that does favor us. It is a tough call. Middlebury has come a long way in past twenty eight years, but the future is less certain for the smaller schools without grad programs. Watch this decision as it will be important for Middlebury, and other similar schools.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The committee will have given Tufts two times for Saturday.  If you ask around the place, someone will know.  There will be a Yeshiva time, probably 8:30, and then a Tufts time (I'd guess 5:30ish by the way they staggered the other times).  They're not waiting to pick a time out of thin air.

[jumbomumbo]

According to D3 Datacast - there is over a 54% chance of a NESCAC team winning the national championship given the bracket.

Trinity: 28.6% (most likely outcome)
Wesleyan: 20.2% (second most likely outcome)
Tufts: 5.1% (6th most likely outcome)

This adds to 53.9%. It only lists the top 8, however I happen to be really really good at math. Mumbo's quant models have calculated that Hamilton's odds are at least 0.2%, tipping the NESCACs odds over 54% of coming home with a natty. Jumpshot is in total denial!

Side note Boston basketball fans: we are expecting Yeshiva to have a massive crowd Friday at tufts. Get out and support Boston's NESCAC team. 1:15 EST, show up early. Tickets at the door only.