MBB: NESCAC

[jumbomumbo]

I think Tufts has the highest ceiling of any team in the country.  I love this squad.  They've been inconsistent, especially against good teams.  If Tufts gets it together, they win the pod.  I've been voting Redlands ahead of them for quite a while in the Top 25 poll.  That's a really good squad.  They're as good as any team Bridgeland's ever had AND they've got some decent size, which he's never really had.  Redlands isn't as big as Tufts and the Jumbos have the home court advantage, but I don't trust Tufts to show up two consecutive nights against good teams.  I sure hope I'm wrong.  I never root for any team to lose and I definitely don't want to see them under perform, but I have to call them like I see them.

Fair but I'm sure you've also watched tufts enough to know we're one of the best bounce back programs in the country. Coming off a loss last weekend, I highly doubt we drop one this weekend.

Using the last time we lost to Trin, for example, Tufts put away both Amherst and Hamilton and went into the half with 32 and 27 point leads.

Yeshiva is in big trouble tomorrow because to make up for a rebounding deficit likely to be in the double digits, they'll have to shoot lights out.

From last games splits, Zevi shot 9/16, Max 6-12, Roy 6-14. Not bad. But literally 0 bench points and a 12 rebounding deficit.... I'd argue tufts didn't even play well at all and the game was really never in doubt.

[jumbomumbo]

Enter your bracket by 1:15 EST!

https://t.co/ajfyGPgJcg

[SpringSt7]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6181582/2025/03/07/wesleyan-university-basketball-michael-astorino/


Someone at the Athletic is clearly a big NESCAC fan, another great article, this time on Wesleyan's Michael Astorino.

[SpringSt7]

I have been riding for Tufts all year but if you really wanted to do it, you could say they are not playing convincing basketball right now. Their last three

-Bates win in OT at home
-10 point win against Williams at home that was a weird one but tight most of second half
-Blown out by Trinity

The funny thing, however, with the tournament is that once you win the first game you have all the momentum in the world and that is what I expect to happen with Tufts and beating Yeshiva.

I think the line this week for NESCAC teams advancing to the Sweet 16 is either o2.5 (-180) or o3 (+135). I'm not a bookie so don't quote me on the odds but you can't guarantee that all 3 hosts will fly through their pods even though they are big favorites on paper

[jumbomumbo]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6181582/2025/03/07/wesleyan-university-basketball-michael-astorino/


Someone at the Athletic is clearly a big NESCAC fan, another great article, this time on Wesleyan's Michael Astorino.

Awesome article and a great kid. He's going places!

[jumbomumbo]

Mumbo re-ran his quant models at the half, and has Tufts by 33. 45-25 currently.

The model couldn't have possibly predicted that a Yeshiva big would have his shoes untied 2 mins into the game. The model also couldn't have predicted that Zevi would not be running back on defense 2 mins into the game. What the model was really good at recognizing was that Zevi would be hounded. Between Medley, Kennelly, and Watt, one man is always resting getting ready to strap up.
Also accurately forecasted was the rebounding margins. 33-14 actually exceeded predictions.

The model is starting to factor in the over 0.5 points on Tufts Guard Jackson Patton points (-115)

[jumbomumbo]

60-49 Jumbos 8 to go. Both fan sections chanting defense on every possession.

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts advances to the round of 32, beating Yeshiva 83-66.

Mumbo has decided to end the model function that allowed for short term analysis. Keeping the model at just a 40 minute game will help smoothen out the data, as the original model of 23 point win wasn't so bad.

Bernstein Player of the Game - 13 points 19 rebounds 4 blocks 2 assists 2 steals.

Morakis could have had 30 - a lot of missed point blank layups. Still got his. 20 points 7 rebounds 2 assists 2 steals.

Gyimesi fouled out with 4 to go. 15 points 10 rebounds 3 assists.

Medley was great. 7-11 from the stripe, 12 points 3 boards 2 assists.
Most importantly, kept Zevi from getting hot.

Kennelly 10 points in 15 mins. Great defense as well.

Tufts will play the winner of Redlands (CA) and St Joes (ME), 4:05 pm tip off.

Model has the monks. But the eye test says Redlands. They got size.

[toad22]

Watching Redlands, coached by Denny Bridgeland, playing St joes. Williams has played bridgeland teams twice, winning one and losing one. They are relentless. If you turn the ball over too much, you are in trouble.

[nescac1]

Redlands (if they hold on to this lead) vs. Tufts would certainly be one of the most fun second-round matchups, just stylistically.  I think that's a game where Tufts would want to play a ton of Kennelly since he is the best ball-handler and decision maker and can set up guys for easy bucket after breaking the press, and also a heavy dose of Gettings at center, again to counter the up and down style - big guys who can run the floor and finish going to the hole can really pour it on against that system.  Gyimesi could have like a 12-14 type of shooting day.  Redlands did not exactly play a murderer's row schedule this year and certainly hasn't seen big guys like Tufts can put out there.   

[SpringSt7]

Tufts gets Redlands tomorrow, who beat St. Joe's Maine 89-79. If you told me before the game that St. Joe's would win the turnover battle by 8 I would've told you they won by double digits but they really struggled to contain Redlands in the halfcourt on top of their run and gun style.

Tufts is the better team and I expect them to win but I didn't think they played awesome against Yeshiva. As a quick aside, I had completely forgotten that they played each other earlier in the year which I thought was a bit of an oversight by the committee. Regardless, they did a great job defensively especially with Medley on Samet who had a respectable game if you only saw the box score but never really got going.

I hate to keep beating this drum but as a Williams guy we do know the Bridgeland style better than those who are in the northeast otherwise so I guess it is of a little use. Tufts (like Williams) is not a super ball handling heavy team but they do have a lot of size. They will have to beat the press by passing over the top of it which they definitely can do, and in fact they have a little more positional size down low than Williams did with Bernstein as a receiver and Gyemesi's vertical leap making him play a little taller than he is.

But either way, Morakis and Kennelly are going to have to be AWESOME to get the ball over halfcourt consistently, which I expect them to do. If Medley and Reilly can be strong with the ball and take their chances in the halfcourt they will be fine. And at least they get more than 24 hours to rest. I like Tufts to win a close one in a fun and hectic game.

Otherwise, Hamilton dropped a tough one to a good Western New England team (is this a bad time to say I didn't like the Hank Morgan POY pick) and Wesleyan is in control early against Delaware Valley. Hamilton as of late has just seemed to be the NESCAC team that draws the brutal draw but I guess that's just the way it goes sometimes.

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts Redlands 5:15 pm tipoff in Medford tomorrow. Should be a packed house. A win would get Tufts through to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year and 3rd time in 5 years.

Redlands full court presses all game and shot lots of deep 3s and also have slashers to the rim. Handed St Joe's their first loss in 19 games.

The winner of tomorrow's game will be the team who controls the pace. Tufts can play fast in transition and can also slow it in the half court and execute. Key will be if Tufts can stay disciplined when they do push the ball.

It looks like Redlands often sends 3 guys at the ball on the first pass in the backcourt. St Joes beat the press up the sidelines a number of times but also had a number of turnovers. St. Joe's wasn't necessarily opportunistic in transition - they often missed a 2 on 1 layup or turned it over. Tufts will need to recognize when it is best to just slow it down and run offense versus attack full speed.

I don't think Redlands sees the 3 ball fall tomorrow. The ball movement isn't quite what tufts is used to in the NESCAC. I think Tufts half court defense will give them fits.

Redlands shot the 3 at a 42.31% clip (11-26) against the Monks. They forced 17 turnovers but had 25 turnovers themselves. Yikes. Redlands won the rebounding battle 45-44.

I think Tufts wins the rebounding battle by 10, key will be the turnover battle. Need to keep our guys out of foul trouble. That being said, Redlands shot poorly from the stripe, 6-13.


I feel pretty confident in Tufts winning between 10-13 points tomorrow, maybe more. Redlands had maybe 10 fans in attendance today - it will be all hometown love in Medford tomorrow.

Prediction: 73-62 Tufts

[jumbomumbo]

Tufts gets Redlands tomorrow, who beat St. Joe's Maine 89-79. If you told me before the game that St. Joe's would win the turnover battle by 8 I would've told you they won by double digits but they really struggled to contain Redlands in the halfcourt on top of their run and gun style.

Tufts is the better team and I expect them to win but I didn't think they played awesome against Yeshiva. As a quick aside, I had completely forgotten that they played each other earlier in the year which I thought was a bit of an oversight by the committee. Regardless, they did a great job defensively especially with Medley on Samet who had a respectable game if you only saw the box score but never really got going.

I hate to keep beating this drum but as a Williams guy we do know the Bridgeland style better than those who are in the northeast otherwise so I guess it is of a little use. Tufts (like Williams) is not a super ball handling heavy team but they do have a lot of size. They will have to beat the press by passing over the top of it which they definitely can do, and in fact they have a little more positional size down low than Williams did with Bernstein as a receiver and Gyemesi's vertical leap making him play a little taller than he is.

But either way, Morakis and Kennelly are going to have to be AWESOME to get the ball over halfcourt consistently, which I expect them to do. If Medley and Reilly can be strong with the ball and take their chances in the halfcourt they will be fine. And at least they get more than 24 hours to rest. I like Tufts to win a close one in a fun and hectic game.

Otherwise, Hamilton dropped a tough one to a good Western New England team (is this a bad time to say I didn't like the Hank Morgan POY pick) and Wesleyan is in control early against Delaware Valley. Hamilton as of late has just seemed to be the NESCAC team that draws the brutal draw but I guess that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Morgan played a poor game and went out with a banger of a technical foul to foul out and end his career. The coaches messed up. I understand it is based on regular season, but they still messed up. Regan should have been it.

[rdanie03]

Tufts Redlands 5:15 pm tipoff in Medford tomorrow. Should be a packed house. A win would get Tufts through to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year and 3rd time in 5 years.

Redlands full court presses all game and shot lots of deep 3s and also have slashers to the rim. Handed St Joe's their first loss in 19 games.

The winner of tomorrow's game will be the team who controls the pace. Tufts can play fast in transition and can also slow it in the half court and execute. Key will be if Tufts can stay disciplined when they do push the ball.

It looks like Redlands often sends 3 guys at the ball on the first pass in the backcourt. St Joes beat the press up the sidelines a number of times but also had a number of turnovers. St. Joe's wasn't necessarily opportunistic in transition - they often missed a 2 on 1 layup or turned it over. Tufts will need to recognize when it is best to just slow it down and run offense versus attack full speed.

I don't think Redlands sees the 3 ball fall tomorrow. The ball movement isn't quite what tufts is used to in the NESCAC. I think Tufts half court defense will give them fits.

Redlands shot the 3 at a 42.31% clip (11-26) against the Monks. They forced 17 turnovers but had 25 turnovers themselves. Yikes. Redlands won the rebounding battle 45-44.

I think Tufts wins the rebounding battle by 10, key will be the turnover battle. Need to keep our guys out of foul trouble. That being said, Redlands shot poorly from the stripe, 6-13.


I feel pretty confident in Tufts winning between 10-13 points tomorrow, maybe more. Redlands had maybe 10 fans in attendance today - it will be all hometown love in Medford tomorrow.

This is a good take but for the wrong reasons. When St. Joe's was in the zone(until their guys died out from only playing 7 all night), Redlands couldn't get any offense. We know the Jumbos 3-2 is borderline shutdown, so I would expect to see a lot of it

Prediction: 73-62 Tufts

[D3BBALL]

Tufts gets Redlands tomorrow, who beat St. Joe's Maine 89-79. If you told me before the game that St. Joe's would win the turnover battle by 8 I would've told you they won by double digits but they really struggled to contain Redlands in the halfcourt on top of their run and gun style.

Tufts is the better team and I expect them to win but I didn't think they played awesome against Yeshiva. As a quick aside, I had completely forgotten that they played each other earlier in the year which I thought was a bit of an oversight by the committee. Regardless, they did a great job defensively especially with Medley on Samet who had a respectable game if you only saw the box score but never really got going.

I hate to keep beating this drum but as a Williams guy we do know the Bridgeland style better than those who are in the northeast otherwise so I guess it is of a little use. Tufts (like Williams) is not a super ball handling heavy team but they do have a lot of size. They will have to beat the press by passing over the top of it which they definitely can do, and in fact they have a little more positional size down low than Williams did with Bernstein as a receiver and Gyemesi's vertical leap making him play a little taller than he is.

But either way, Morakis and Kennelly are going to have to be AWESOME to get the ball over halfcourt consistently, which I expect them to do. If Medley and Reilly can be strong with the ball and take their chances in the halfcourt they will be fine. And at least they get more than 24 hours to rest. I like Tufts to win a close one in a fun and hectic game.

Otherwise, Hamilton dropped a tough one to a good Western New England team (is this a bad time to say I didn't like the Hank Morgan POY pick) and Wesleyan is in control early against Delaware Valley. Hamilton as of late has just seemed to be the NESCAC team that draws the brutal draw but I guess that's just the way it goes sometimes.

Morgan played a poor game and went out with a banger of a technical foul to foul out and end his career. The coaches messed up. I understand it is based on regular season, but they still messed up. Regan should have been it.

100% agree