MBB: NESCAC

[SpringSt7]

Tufts - Redlands @ 5:15 PM

Trinity - Keene St. @ 7:10 PM

Wesleyan - Gettsburg @ 7:00 PM - if I have my facts correct that is Gettysburg coach BJ Dunne versus his former head coach at Bates in Joe Reilly

I'll say there is a 50% chance there are 3 NESCAC teams in the Sweet 16 this time tomorrow. Trinity had a slow start and shook it off while the other two rolled but are also playing good teams

[jumbomumbo]

MUMBO BRACKETOLOGY (MUMBOLOGY):

Mumbo went 21/32 in the round of 32. Lackluster!! But Tufts won, so I don't really care. Plus, it's not like I've seen half of these teams play anyways. 12 of my sweet 16 teams are still alive. 75%. slightly better than lackluster but there's still 94 people ahead of me on d3challenge.com. There is room to jump the ranks. Mumbo has all elite 8 teams alive. That is called perfection. In baseball, .750 from the plate = generational wealth, so I'll take that angle tonight. St John's MN is prob my longest moonshot of an elite 8 team but I love it. Side note, #7 St John's MN
vs #9 Illinois Wesleyan is probably the most intriguing matchup  tomorrow.

NESCAC thoughts:

Always tough when a good team loses two games in a row to end a good season (Hamilton). But I think everyone knew some combination of Tufts, Trinity, and Wesleyan would make it the furthest into this season just a few weeks in. At least this is what my quant models had been telling me.

The "models":

Mumbo's model agrees with nescac1, about a 50% chance all 3 NESCAC teams
advance into the sweet 16.
#3 Wesleyan vs Gettysburg = 88%
#4 Trinity Roosters vs Keene = 74%
#13 Tufts vs #15 Redlands = 77%
The math maths, 50.4% chance of 3 NESCAC teams advancing.

It is always healthy to check out models of competitors, and as previously stated, d3datacast had previously predicted about a 54% of a NESCAC team winning the National Championship. Unfortunately, my model just happens to be a little quicker at updating the math. I've got 59.6% today. Mumbo eagerly awaits the leading indicator - the D3datacast model - tomorrow.

Round of 64 Play of the Day:

Jon Medley of Tufts 3 pointer at the end of the shot clock which was LeBron-esque, as he shot off one foot, off foot, nothing but net. The shot extended the lead to 20 and nobody in the crowd truly realized how big of a shot it was at the moment, but Yeshiva would later mount a comeback within 9. Within 6 would have been a little scary! DAGGER.

Two most likely "upsets" for the round of 32:

Western New England over Montclair State. I almost feel bad not taking them over Hamilton. Knew it was a 50/50 game, but having seen Hamilton at Wesleyan I had some recency bias. I've watched WNE play more than Hamilton this year and I simply slipped up on that call. Tomorrow I get it right.

Ithaca over WPI:

Why? No reason, just didn't see much of a crowd at WPI today and Ithaca smoked a good Stockton team.

Excited for tomorrow! Mumbo-out.

[nescac1]

I realize Morgan had an off day but in his defense we was clearly playing through two injuries (his shoulder and hand both taped up) and who knows what impact they had - he certainly didn't look like his usual self in terms of offensive aggression. Kudos to a very tough WNEC team, their defensive pressure certainly impacted Hamilton and created a lot of easy points for them.  And Harrison was great, more impactful than his stats. 

I think all three NESCAC teams advance today. NESCAC teams usually fare well against these PA teams in the tourney and Wesleyan is just too athletic for Gettysburg.  If they get upset I think it will be by WPI.  Trinity could lose to Keene if they have another horrific shooting game but I suspect they got that out of their system and Keene is too leaky defensively to contain Vetter, Jarrel and Lazarre going to the rim.  And they can throw a lot of good defensive wings on Britto led by Jarrel.   Trinity at this point has the easiest path to the Elite 8 of all three, but there they would face a titanic showdown with very likely CNU or RMC. 

If there is an upset today I think it's Tufts just because of the weird stylistic issues, but Redlands hasn't played anyone remotely like Tufts and I think once Tufts adjusts to the pressure it will be a layup line for all their big finishers. HSC and my pick to win the title, NYU, await so the path only gets harder.   

[toad22]

I don't think any D3 team can get comfortable with Redlands. They make you anxious no matter weather you easily break their press a few times in a row or not. They adjust to how you play and then stop that and make you play another way. This Redlands team is also very sloppy, and that is where Tufts has a big advantage. I do think Tufts is likely to win, but not without considerable basketball indigestion!

[Bucket]

Condolences, mumbo. What a (double) gut punch.

[toad22]

What a crazy game in Medford. Redlands is so hard to play. They keep coming at you. Given the way most of the game played, it is hard to believe Tufts lost - but they did. I can't believe I'm writing this, but I am sorry Tufts lost. They are a very good team.

[jumbomumbo]

Insane. This isn't the reason we lost, but Refs need to call by the rule book. Redlands hits layup with .3 seconds left and 12 players storm the court, no technicals called.

We should have thrown the ball into the hands of an ineligible player, that would have earned the technical foul, they would have had to.

Tufts went into the half up 12 and shot 15/20 in the 2nd half and somehow lost.

[WPI89]

When do next weeks matchups/sites get announced?  Tomorrow morning?

Any Speculation? 

Can Wes and Trinity play in final 8?


Maybe a pod at Wesleyan. With Trinity/WPI/Western NE?

WPI/Trinity. Western/Wesleyan?

Don't know all the rules or if that makes sense? 

[D3BBALL]

First on the tufts game, terrible decision not to foul the minute Redlands got to have Court. Put them on the line and they have to make the first, miss the second and get the rebound. Should never have let them get a three-point shot up.

Wesleyan and Trinity will not be in the same pod. Guessing both Wesleyan and Trinity are hosting next weekend, along with NYU and who knows in the fourth quad. I believe the locations will be chosen tonight. So that plans can be made.

[nescac1]

Platteville lost.  Wesleyan, Trinity and NYU are virtual locks to host.  I'd expect Lacrosse to be the fourth host.  Congrats to two NESCAC teams on surviving an upset filled day. 

Colin Tabb going up against Trinity is really fun but I expect that to be a tough game for WNEC.  That bracket really turned out as well as it possibly could for Trinity with CNU, Hamilton and RMC all going down. The teams remaining have all been hot but are def a step down from Trinity in talent.  Love their odds of advancing as they are on a huge roll right now.  Still love NYU in its quarter after they survived a terrible outside shooting day - doubt that happens to them again.

WPI could absolutely beat Wesleyan in a physical ugly game and WPI and Emory are two very tough games to get to the Final Four, but Wesleyan is certainly still the narrow favorite there.  Regan/Johnson v, Pearce/Knight would be super fun as the best guard duos nationally playing head to head.  The Lacrosse bracket seems wide open, all four teams are evenly matched. 

Brutal ending for Tufts.  There has been endless hype on here for the team but with the talent on hand a total of four NCAA wins and zero NESCAC finals appearances over this group's three year run has to be a bit of a letdown. The problem for Tufts has been the same all year as well as going back to the three late-season losses to Trinity last year - in every loss they've made a low number of 3's on a poor percentage; when they play high level opponents who don't give open looks the math just doesn't work for them.  After Reilly, the outside shooting is just too inconsistent and a lot of guys play who don't love to launch it. 

Next year represents one more chance for the loaded junior class to make a deep run - Tufts has virtually everyone back with the only ?? back-up center.  If they can spend the off-season improving on outside shooting they have a great chance to finally crack that elusive Final Four barrier.  But Trinity still looms as their (and everyone in the league's, but man, Trinity has been so dominant in that matchup it may be in Tufts' head at this point) Achilles heel as the Bants are just as loaded next year as they've been the last two.  Their elite athleticism on the perimeter sets them apart.  As great as Tufts' junior class is,  Vetter/Okorougo/Lazarre/McDonald/Jordan is the best class the league has seen in a long time - at least since Williams 2019, which I think was even more talented, but less healthy over the course of their careers. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Platteville lost.  Wesleyan, Trinity and NYU are virtual locks to host.  I'd expect Lacrosse to be the fourth host.

Trinity is too far from Roanoke.  I think that'll go to Catholic, assuming they bid to host.

[nescac1]

So they just throw seeding out the window and go entirely by geography? I didn't realize that.  It would only be one team flying to Trinity.  That would be a bummer. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So they just throw seeding out the window and go entirely by geography? I didn't realize that.  It would only be one team flying to Trinity.  That would be a bummer. 

It's official.  Trinity got it.  Committee spent the extra money to make it happen (Roanoke is likely to drive anyway).

[WPI89]

Ryan, what else has been announced?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ryan, what else has been announced?

All the hosts for men and women, along with times.  It should all be up on the d3hoops.com brackets.