MBB: NESCAC

[nescachoopsfan]

as presented in a previous argument, the percentage of wins and losses versus opponents is a consideration.  fine there arent that many nationally ranked teams in new england, but you can still schedule games against opponents with winning records.  its pretty pathetic how many games amherst plays below average teams.  i think it helps a lot with your record to play cupcake games 3 out of 4 times.  it allows you to focus and get up for that tough game a lot easier than if you were to consistently play games that are meaningful games.  if you go out and constantly test yourself it is a bit different to only test yourself a few times every 10 games.  their stength of schedule could be a lot better than it is even in new england.

and by the way i saw springfield play, they are not a good team at all.  i am shocked trinity could lose to them.  they were really a weak team with few to no scorers.  i dont think there is any nescac team that should lose to them

[walzy31]

593 for 3rd
598 for 1st

as amherst stays unbeaten they will move up. til then, what a joke.

[fpc85]

Walzy,
I agree.....nothing to do about the perception but to pound ever team until they submit......the heck with the polls. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

However, it seems that all the arguments against Amherst fall back to some variation of "the NE region simply doesn't offer enough decent competition to warrant a number one national ranking for its top team."  If this is the case, then what is the ceiling nationally for the best team in NE?  Hoops Fan, I'd really be interested to hear your thoughts.  Does it really take something like Williams' historic run to get that sort of respect?

I think a national #1 is not only possible, but warranted at times for the NE Region's top team.  I just don't think that this season's Amherst squad is quite good enough to warrant it.  Obviously, if they run the table, they make a very good case for it, but based on personnel and schedule, I'm not sure I'll be sold on them until they get to the final 8 or final 4 of the tournament.

Amherst got hurt this year because Trinity (TX) is having an off year.  They got hurt because they lost a good amount of talent from last year.  The conference season will be able to help them, especially if they can run it.

I think they are more set up for a really good run next year.  I know they'll lose three starters again, but the bench this year is much more experienced and ready to take over.  I know in the eyes of the Amherst faithful there is no such thing as rebuilding, but this is a down year for them and #3 in the country, with just a couple of votes separating them from 1st place is pretty good.

I think the rankings will come and are not too hard to come by for a NE school, however the respect from the rest of the country is only going to be possible with a Williams type run because the path to the final four is so easy for the NE Region.  Until the NCAA finds a way to balance the brackets (which we've demonstrated they could have done the last two years by sending the Ohio schools to Pennsylvania), the NE just isn't going to get the lip service from the rest of the country.

[Ralph Turner]

There's been a fair amount of discussion about this in the multi-regional boards, where there's a topic devoted to the Top 25 poll.

Here are some enlightening numbers:

Team A: Record of opponents played to date: 35-40, .466
Team B: Record of opponents played to date: 70-32, .686
Team C: Record of opponents played to date: 65-49, .570

That's all the games the opponents have played against teams other than the one we're ranking (you can add nine or ten losses and one or zero wins if you like).

Or this list:
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 35-40, .466
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 63-26, .707
Record of D-III opponents played to date: 54-27, .667

A is Amherst. B is Ohio Northern. C is UW-Stevens Point.

Walzy, from the other side of the country, let me re-frame this question!

(Can you not analyze the respect that Amherst is getting?)

Donald Trump has just come to you and said,  "You are my apprentice.  Look at these 3 companies in the "D3widget market".  They can all be purchased for the same share price.  Here are current performance data showing relative domination in their markets.  Now the market is national and it is still early.  You can look at the relative performances of their recent competition.

"I want to buy only one.  How do you rank them?  And why?"

[nescac hoops]

i have always said that amherst has a soft schedule. yes, the NE region isn't as tough as others but i think hixon could at least find teams with winning records in the region. that being said, if voters think they have too soft a schedule to warrant a #1 ranking, then why did they rank them as high as 2 in the first place? it doesn't make sense. but more importantly, these rankings have no bearing on amherst. like i said earlier, if the regular season ended with these same rankings amherst would still have home court advantage up until salem in the tournament which is all that matters.

walzy, here is the leary player of the year link. he is such a classy kid and god, the ephs need him on the bball floor too.
http://www.williams.edu/athletics/news.php?id=10155
team a is lehman. team b is jp morgan. and team c is goldman.

[BooBallsCasRay]

Hoops Fan,
In all seriousness (for one time) I completely disagree with your last post. While Amherst lost a lot of talent off of last year's team (especially the Simsbury Assassin Keith Zalaski), they often found themselves standing around in key situations and waiting for one of the seniors to take a key last shot. While there is a ton of talent in the junior class, no one besides Olson really ever stepped up partially due to their personalities in key situations. I can give many examples of this but a few that come to mind are:
1. Casnocha vs. Tufts and Whitt
2. Underclassmen refusing to take the final shot before Olson's heave
3. And lastly, the entire team often stood around waiting for Bedford to make something happen or to spark some energy into the younger guys
While everything that I have said are just examples of senior leadership, what makes this team more unique is that there is no individual who can take over a game and get to the rim like Bedford could last year.  With that being said, this team has all of the components necessary to win on the national level.
Hoops Fan, I do not understand what you think they are missing in order for this not to be considered a down year. They have one of the top point guards in the region (if not the country) who has been starting since Day 1, 3 outside shooters (Wheeler, McLaughlin, and Bouskouskas), a developing inside game, and more height than almost any other team in the country.
While i am fine with them not being number 1 based on strength of schedule and the weaker NE region (which is a fact), it is not because AMHERST is having a down year, rather everyone around them is.

[Friar T]

Okay, I can understand not ranking the Jeffs #1. Not what I would have done, but understandable by all the various rationals that have appeared on this page. However, dropping them a spot after they remain undefeated is terrible. Personally I'm just hurt, and offended and just hurt...

Now that we have that settled, on to Jan. 6! The yearly reminder for Paulsen that he really wishes he had McLaughlin instead of Nelson, Olson instead of Shalvoy or Baskauskas (this is the right spelling FormerBant) instead of Snyder. Now Williams isn't the easiest place to play. Long trip over the mountain, hostile Eph crowd with barrels of horrific "You Suck" cheers and Williams always less-than-talented dance squad. However, you heard it here first: IT WON'T MATTER. If Williams doesn't shoot 50% from behind the arc the Jeffs win by 20+, and if they do the Jeffs still post a solid 10-15 point win. That's just the way it is...

Big ups to BooBalls bringing some insight. the NE population is down, not the Jeffs.

Amen.

[The Historian]

Then, after a long day of pouring over the numbers and making cold calculations in order to corner the widget market, Donald feels the need for a cup of coffee.  But being "The Donald," he orders his apprentice to choose only the very, very best cup.

The apprentice looks at his options:

Coffee shop A is located on Main St in a quaint, lovely small town.  There aren't too many other coffee shops around, so competition is light.  Coffee shop A doesn't have the resources or the need for a lot of flashy advertisements or aggressive pricing strategies.  Suffice it to say, The Wall Street Journal has never profiled them.  Still, they have made the most of the situation.  They have a small, yet fiercely loyal customer base.  This is because everyone knows that Coffee shop A makes the best coffee in the area.  They labor over every pot, using only the very best ingredients.  Even though they aren't widely known and don't have huge revenues, Coffee Shop A makes a tremendous cup of coffee.

Coffee shop B is located in downtown Seattle.  They are surrounded by other great coffee shops.  All make consistently wonderful coffee.  Coffee Shop B, however, is among the best.  A few weeks ago they suffered a financial loss when another nearby coffee shop started giving away free coffee as part of a grand opening special.  But once that special ended, Coffee Shop B regained its market share and actually started making more money than it had before, even putting the previously top-rated coffee shop in Seattle out of business.  Because of the prime coffee market in their area and their consistently great coffee, Coffee shop B is posting record financial numbers.

Coffee shop C is located on Broadway in the heart of Manhattan.  Competition is fierce and never ending.  Fortunately, Coffee shop C makes a fantastic cup of coffee.  A few weeks ago they lost a significant amount of business when super-chain Dunkin Donuts dramatically slashed prices.  But Coffee shop C weathered the storm and continued to do what they do best -- make great coffee.  Quickly they got back their customer base and, in fact, increased their sales.  Because of the quality of their coffee and their fortunate location -- in the heart of one of the busiest areas of the country -- Coffee shop C is making record profits.

So, the question remains, who makes the best cup of coffee?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I didn't say I felt that way; that's the general perception.  If you didn't see Amherst play last year, which a majority of the voters didn't, you see on paper a team led by seniors as a really talented point guard came into his own.  Now you see a team with another year of seniors being asked to step up and a PG being asked to lead for the first time.

I think this Amherst team is every bit as capable as last year's squad, if not more so.  However, they have to earn the rep this year, which their schedule has not really allowed them to do.  Compared with last year and the projection of what they'll have next year (barring any unforeseen circumstances), by comparison, this year's team will have to do more to achieve the same results.  That's what I meant by a down year.

You have to separate perception and reality, because most voters just don't get to see Amherst.  You also have skeptics like me, who although I recognize the talent and ability Amherst has, I wonder about how their ability is affected by the poor competition.  I think Amherst could be a much better team with four losses to top talent than as an undefeated squad in New England.  That too affects my assessment of them.

The biggest problem is that Amherst is so head and shoulders above the rest of the region that even scheduling the best ten non-con teams around isn't going to win them any respect nationally when Midwest teams have so many more solid programs to choose from.  The Jeffs simply can't play Keene State and Brandeis over and over again and even if they could, the schedule still wouldn't match up to a school in the midwest where the 3rd best teams in the WIAC, CCIW and OAC are better than anyone in New England outside the NESCAC.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So, the question remains, who makes the best cup of coffee?

Saint's Rest?

[Pat Coleman]

i have always said that amherst has a soft schedule. yes, the NE region isn't as tough as others but i think hixon could at least find teams with winning records in the region. that being said, if voters think they have too soft a schedule to warrant a #1 ranking, then why did they rank them as high as 2 in the first place?

Because until Ohio Northern played Wittenberg, Wooster and UW-La Crosse -- all of them since the most recent poll -- they didn't deserve the No. 2 spot.

You can't just look at one team in isolation -- every spot in the poll is affected by the teams around it.

[Pat Coleman]

Okay, I can understand not ranking the Jeffs #1. Not what I would have done, but understandable by all the various rationals that have appeared on this page. However, dropping them a spot after they remain undefeated is terrible. Personally I'm just hurt, and offended and just hurt...

Go take advantage of your new geography and watch the WIAC and OAC teams play. You'll get a new perspective on Division III.

[nescac1]

Amherst folks, relax.  I can't see how you can begrudge Stevens Point, a team with no Division III losses (I don't count a loss to a scholarship program, so Amherst has no edge in the true "loss" column there), from the best conference in the country, with a record of two national titles in the last three years, from taking the top spot.   Same goes with Ohio Northern, who has beaten two top notch teams including the consensus most talented team in the land, and who plays in the number two conference.  There are lots of undefeated teams ranked well below Amherst, who have played schedules that were just as hard or harder, so the voters are clearly recognizing Amherst's talent level in addition to its results. 

Given how hard the OAC and WIAC are, both Stevens Point and ONU are guaranteed to each lose a few more games, so as long as Amherst keeps winning (which, alas, appears highly likely) they'll be number one in a matter of weeks. 

Tough loss to Occidental for the Ephs this weekend.  Ephs shot fairly well but Occidental was, as expected, just too big and talented inside.  Sounds like the Ephs still are waiting on the inexperienced big guys to mature on both offense and defense to complement the perimeter players.  The question is, will it happen throughout this season so the team is looking strong by the end of conference play, next year, or never?  I'd guess number two, but we'll see.  Good luck to the Eph men this weekend, they are going to need it.   Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but Amherst looks to be about 30 points better than the Ephs on paper.  And as for the Eph women, hopefully they can continue their (12 game?? something like that) winning streak vs. the Jeffs. 

Eph observers, what's up with Rose?  His shooting and rebounding are way down from last year.  Is the broken hand still bothering him, or perhaps the lack of practice time early in the season, or is there another explanation?   

[blacklordjeff]

That was truly a marvelous illustration, I couldnt have even thought about putting it better than that.  i think that you'll never know which cup is better til you get a sample of each cup.  But again, even more to think about, there's some variation in how those cups are on a daily basis.  What if a worker at one of the shops had a fight with his girlfriend and stayed up too late trying to make up before they came to work, the cup of coffee that they prepare probably wouldn't be their best.  But if I'm visiting for one day from out of town, and I drink that cup, that's my impression of what is supposed to be "the best coffee in the city."  I don't really care about fights with girlfriends, I care about the cup of coffee that I get to drink.  So until we all get to sit down and taste each cup of coffee side by side on one particular day (hopefully everyone's best day), we'll never know. (can we forward this line of illustration to the BCS folks by the way?)

Not that Amherst needed a chip, but they may have one not being number one.  I think this is the best and most balanced Amherst team that I've seen (meaning since 2000).  I've always said, that as long as they dont die by the three and play good interior defense, they shouldnt be beat.  And I think they have the tools to do that this year.  If we could be ranked number one in 2004, this team definitely should be able to receive that ranking.  Its never about putting down other teams, its about thinking a lot of your own particular team.

WAR Stevens Point
WAR Great illustrations for making points
WAR The Historian
WAR Preachers